I agree 100% with this. When it is said that 1BTC= 1BTC I say to put things in perspective, because it is not remotely the same 1BTC in 2010 than in 2022.

I understand the OP's perspective, that if we look long term and HODL the price will recover and surpass $69k. If you do not sell, you will not realize a loss. The one who HODLs will have a scarce and limited good whose purchasing power tends to grow, unlike fiat currencies, but the one who bought at $69k has lost 70% of the purchasing power he had.

Well, it's not surprising, in a world whose global trend is more regulations and more taxes, but anyway, 0.5% is not a very high percentage either and anyway, as hatshepsut93 comments in order to pay for goods and services if you have it in Bitcoin you are also going to have to pay fees that probably exceed that 0.5%.

Do you mind saying in which country this happens? I have searched and I don't see anything recent.

What a false statement, and 4 have quoted you after your comment without mentioning it.

The lottery is designed for nothing more than for the lottery owners to make money, and it works very well because you give people the false hope that with a probability of about 0 it will change their lives.

For a reason it is known as the tax of the poor or the stupid:

The lottery is a tax on poor people and on people who can't do math.

The French philosopher, Voltaire, is reputed to have said that “lotteries are a tax on stupidity.”

I am going to emphasize something else that has not been emphasized before:


Centralization goes against the very essence of Bitcoin but more is being achieved every day and I understand that regulations will go along these lines. For shitcoins it doesn't matter but Bitcoin P2P was created in a decentralized way.

It seems to me that P2P Bitcoin transactions are going to take the same path as P2P cash payments, a decreasing path.

Lol!. Skyrocketting?

It is quite an exaggeration to say that. The thing about the USD is that it is getting strong relative to other currencies, but Bitcoin is not like oil, which you have to buy in dollars, you can buy it with many different currencies. It has nothing to do with it.

What I do agree on is the 2 or 3 years but because of the next halving, not because of anything to do with the strength of the dollar.

And everything indicates that it will continue to fall, if the ECB does nothing, which it looks like it will not do, at least until after the summer. In reality, the ECB is breaking its core mandate to control inflation, but it is at a crossroads because with the current monetary policy it does not control inflation, but directly encourages it. However, acting to stop it could end in an economic disaster that would start with the countries of southern Europe, so it is in a catch-22 situation.

And yet the price keeps dropping?

I don't know if you have read what I posted before.

News from April 4, when the price was around $42k:

Bitcoin Continues To Flow Out Of Exchanges.

This one from January 28:

Bitcoin Worth $670M Leaves Centralized Exchanges After Hawkish Fed Comments.

I don't doubt that this is the case, what I doubt is that it is a bullish indicator, which is what the news sells us when they say that Bitcoins are leaving the exchanges.

Nice but there is a special thread dedicated to this kind of self-praising posts:

Announce your rank up, merit or any achievements that makes you feel great!

You are free to keep this one if you want but I think it is better to have all posts of this style concentrated in the linked thread.

I believe in morality when it comes to making money, but not based on God. For example, don't scam people to make money is a principle that the vast majority of people can agree on, except for a few scammers.

But this thread, coming from someone who writes this:


It is yet another nonsense.

I was going to ask you for the source of this, but googling I get reddit and this: The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets

which are the same source garbage. An image that anyone can make with Paint.

I'm not saying it's fake, but I'm skeptical of this data. It reminds me of the number of times since a year ago that I've seen the news that the number of Bitcoins leaving the exchanges (supposedly for HODL) just keep growing. I remember seeing a news story about it 3 or 4 times just before it dropped in price.

Yeah, well, that's the most extreme example but there are many who are not nearly as good and yet receive merit. In my case, I received merits when my rank was lower, as I said before:


And I don't even come close to n0nce's shoe.


Since theymos is an avowed ancap, I doubt that such an idea even crossed his mind.

This thread reminds me that over time I learned the meaning of "cycling merits".

I am one of those who hardly gives merits to lower ranked members and I have sent and received many from higher ranked ones.

Mind you, when I was a lower ranked member I did receive many merits from higher ranked ones.

I simply believe that there are few newbies and lower ranked members that stand out but when there are they receive a lot of merits, look at the case of n0nce for example.

So, this does not worry me nor do I see it as a problem unless we start from the socialist assumption of trying to equalize everyone, which is precisely the opposite of what the merit system intends, which is to recognize those who deserve it the most.

You are correct so far the discovery has had minimal, if any, impact on the price. We will have to see the permits and how the extraction goes, at what speed, but until the gold is brought to market I doubt it will have a significant impact.

With Bitcoin we know, however, that this cannot happen. It wouldn't be impossible either because hypothetically there could be a consensus to increase the 21 million limit, but I think we'll see the elephants fly first.

I highly doubt that Bitcoin will experience parabolic bull runs, and I created a thread about it some time ago:

Are spectacular returns over for bitcoin?

Personally, I would like to see parabolic returns in the future, but with the current market cap it is going to be more difficult. The fact that we have done only 3.5x this cycle points to this, and the levels we are at also.

Although it's not all bad, volatility should tend to reduce overall, for upside and downside.

I believe that for the rest of July and August we are not going to have any big surprises. It is normal that we will stay more or less at these levels, maybe going below $20k again or maybe going up, but I doubt very much that we will go over $30k.

In September we will see, things will start to move again, and the way the general outlook looks I don't see it very bullish, but who knows.

What has "happened" to Germany is very bad news and unthinkable not so long ago:

Germany’s much-vaunted trade surplus disappears as import prices surge

Having what was considered the economic locomotive of Europe running a trade deficit, with an increasingly weaker currency, rising energy prices and preparing for gas rationing paints a very dark future for the Eurozone.

If you're going to make statements like that, you better put the source. I thought you made it up but I see there's a famous author who's going bonkers:

I'm Waiting for Bitcoin to Test $1,100: Robert Kiyosaki

He has already made some failed predictions, but lately I see him more and more apocalyptic, maybe he sees the hour of his death near and projects it to the world.

For my part, I think it is very difficult to be bullish now, as there is no reason to be. I think we are going to be pretty bored until the next cycle.

This can only be regretted by those who do not have a long-term vision. If you buy to hold for a couple of cycles you don't care, and if you do DCA the same, or any of its variants, because very few people have a big lump sum and buy only once. The normal thing is to make several purchases, and as you are not going to hit the bottom, unless it is by chance, it doesn't matter if you bought at $30k or $20, the point is to accumulate.

Ok, so then, depending on the price, if they are very cheap, it can be a good offer for someone willing to learn.


That you don't need is less and less true with each passing day. If you play zoom or snap formats that's what the regulars do. Obviously they are not as good as NL200 regulars but the aggressive tight play makes the game tougher.

I don't know where you play that allows you to select tables, and find weak tables. In the end a lot of people are multi-lobbying because it is hard to find fish in one room.

I prefer to play the fast variants where there is less fish, and the tables are harder because the number of hands per hour is much higher, and I avoid the hassle of changing the table.

But yes, ideally if you play on a site where you can select a table and find weak players, with value bet to the fish and not get into a lot of trouble with the regulars you are doing well.

As I told you in a previous message, the answer will depend a lot on where you live and how inquisitorial the IRS or the Treasury Department of your country is.

The only thing to remember is that Al Capone got locked up for tax evasion. It wasn't Bitcoin, but all they could prove was that he had a lot more money than he could justify.


If we are talking about high amounts, there will be. Remember that the greater the amount, the greater the problem. Having $2K in cash of undeclared origin is not a problem, but having $2M in either cash or Bitcoin of dubious origin can land you in jail. I would take action long before the amount gets higher, rather than having plausible deniability as the only plan.