Yet another chapter in the history of gambling. Short, like the others, but interesting.

Slot machines are one of the most profitable things a casino can have. A friend of mine works in one and he says it is the most profitable thing they have. Many times, games like poker, are offered to give variety of games and attract potential customers, of which some will end up betting on slots or other games that are more profitable for the casino.

I don't know if there will be that difference in online casinos, I guess not.

Yeah right, most "Americans" or rather those who answer that survey, want to be given money for doing nothing. Surprise! If you give me money for doing nothing I'll take it too.

But then those people I do not want to hear them complaining about inflation, as in the end all these measures of public spending what they do is that prices rise more and more, and the purchasing power ends up staying the same or worse than before showering people with that money.

I laugh a lot at his threads too. And even more so when I think that for someone who plays poker like me, the fact that he calls himself "fishy" is even more indicative, since that's what we call bad or recreational players.

At least he entertains us and gives us something to talk about, but things like this, that he has lost and plans to "get revenge" by betting more and harder, are a total nonsense.

Well, before watching the video I already knew that this could not be a real situation. I don't know what it will be like in Las Vegas or wherever the movie takes place, but I doubt very much that a friend would have the posture to legally take my money and put it aside. Depending on how much of a friend he was, you could still sue him for the unearned amount (if it was a close friend, I really wouldn't do that).

But well, it is clear that this is an imaginary situation, which could happen, yes, but it is extremely unlikely.

Good point.


I think LoyceV's explanation of this is more plausible. The vast majority of crypto casinos, at least the ones that advertise on the forum have a license from a tax haven, typically Curacao, and some are not even licensed. Gradually they have been implementing more KYC/AML measures, at least in their ToS, but I think this is more to save face than anything else. I say this, because for example I have read the ToS of a casino in which I deposited and bet, that said they required KYC for if you have in the account more than $2k or total movements for more than $2k but then they allow you to create an anonymous account and bet whole bitcoins. At that same casino, someone closely associated with it confirmed to me by PM that he had not seen a single instance of KYC in several years. And that casino is no exception.


After your comments in the thread, it is clear to me that I will first withdraw to my wallet and then pay the prize. But about this I want to say that I have cashed out from several casinos in signature campaigns and I have also deposited and withdrawn in some of them, I have never had any problem in spending those funds. I'm not saying that it can't happen in the future, and I have never thought of putting them in Coinbase or similar site.

Yes, I have to pay the withdrawal fee anyway. After the comments, I think it doesn't really matter, but as the fees are low I'd better withdraw to an address of mine first.


Really? How are they going to know if the address is mine or not? Do some casinos really use blockchain analysis? I know you are more concerned than I am about privacy (although I am to some extent) and you reminded me of something I said in another thread;

I am going to create another poker game, this time simpler, and I want to pay with some funds I have in the casino.

They are about 0.0016 Bitcoin and the doubt I have is if I pay the winner directly from the casino, or will it be better to withdraw those funds to my personal wallet and from there pay the winner.

The disadvantage I see to this second option is that there will be two transactions to pay and two fees. I don't see much disadvantage to the first one but I don't know if you have something to say about privacy or something. AFAIK when you deposit in a casino, they create an address for you but those deposits are consolidated in one address (or several) where they centralize the funds and from there they pay, so I don't think there is a privacy problem.

Do you see any problem to pay the winner directly from the casino?

The reason for wanting to pay with some casino funds is that in the first game I created at the end I wanted to give a second prize that the winner did not want to receive:



So apart from asking for your advice, I encourage you to play when I create it, probably next weekend.

Where do you get that from? I haven't seen anything indicating that in the article the OP links to. It does talk about a legend that I believe is just that, simply a legend that didn't happen in the real world about:


But nothing to indicate that the loser died throughout the article.

Many people get nervous and when a casino blocks the account to conduct an investigation. They accuse the casino of being scammers. For me, if this happens, the first step is to talk to the casino, as you point out, f you have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide, things will work out, especially if we are talking about a trusted casino like the many we see on the forum.

Can you explain what the hell happened to you without us having to click on every link? A summary would be nice, apart from the alleged evidence.


You can't post images because you are a newbie, consider buying a copper membership if you are very interested, although as you have merits, if you continue writing in the forum you will rank up soon.

Well, explain yourself better because I see you are talking about a potential scam and not someone who has already scammed you for a certain amount.

Yeah, I think that's better. If we divide the prize between us here it will be like $7 each. I think it is more fun to create another game. Liverpool won btw.

I've just bet for the first time in sports betting at freebitco.in.

I bet on Liverpool to win and they won. I guess it takes a while for the money to be credited to the account, right? It's been a while since the match finished and I don't see it.

I don't know about soccer or combined bets. I can bet it on Liverpool winning g and if I win I'll share the pirze with all of you who posted a hand analysis.

Btw I plan to open a thread about poker, putting my graphs, hands and statistics but I will open it in a few months.

I've just placed a 0.00082741 bet to Liverpool winning. If we win it won't be much, we'll see what happens with the winnings.

Edit: I've just thought of something better. If I win the bet, I think the prize will be around $35 in Bitcoin. I could create another game about poker but this time much more simple: It would consist of a hand but instead of making an analysis, it would be a matter of guessing that hand, the opponent's hand. That way it would be more fun and people who do not have much idea could participate, being able to perhaps guess correctly if they say a random hand.

Lol.

Pretty crazy what's happening this weekend, no?

I guess you guys are more used to it but to go to send a transaction and see that it is confirmed in the next block with the minimum fee is awesome. It's the same all weekend, the mempool is empty. I don't know if this has any counterpart but I certainly prefer this than to send transactions with an average fee and see that it remains stuck in the mempool for days because it is overcongested.

Of course, it is an essential element of hand analysis. It's just that instead of thinking of what particular hand the opponent has you'd better think of what range (multiple possible hands) he has in that spot. So depending on the actions at the table, you discard possible hands and when you discard them, you discard them for the following streets.

It is very common for regulars to bluff you when projects get completed, but if, for example, a tight regular raises from UTG, and on a Q28 A 5 board he reraises trying to make us believe that he has a straight with 34, we can pay for the raise with strong hands, such as AQ or sets, because we know he does not have 34. In the hand analysis when he raises preflop from UTG we put him in a range that does not include 34 at all. So if he doesn't have 34 preflop, he doesn't have that hand on the flop, turn or river.

I think it's better to have Alec Torelli explain it to you in a 5-minute video, in that he analyzes a hand quite similar to the one in this thread.

How to Put Your Opponents on a Hand Range

I call it narrowing but Torelli calls it funneling. Here you have a pdf example:

https://www.consciouspoker.com/handrangefunnelexample.pdf
 

I think this hits the nail on the head. Unless people foresee a lot of mobility for work or other reasons, I recommend everyone to buy a house, to the extent of their possibilities, without going into excessive debt.

A paid off house or a good equity in it, just with an emergency fund of between 3 and 6 months of expenses and regular investment in the stock market in mutual funds and/or pension plans give a financial peace of mind that is worth experiencing.

Yes, that's for sure.

I don't know if this applies in fiat casinos or in the ones where I play poker, as I play regularly. In any case, a fee of this kind does not seem so strange to me. It is clear that casinos, just like banks, are interested in keeping the money moving. Of course, if I were one of those who spend time without gambling, I would not leave my funds in the casino to be charged up to 15% monthly fees.

Yes, we will probably reach that figure, but much later than expected last year. People like Michael Saylor who were giving crazy predictions, Let's also look at Brian Armstrong:


‘I Overestimated’—Coinbase CEO Admits He Made A Big Mistake After $2 Trillion Bitcoin, Ethereum And Crypto Price Crash

If I live long enough I will still be holding but partially selling or spending as the price increases.

I don't openly tell everyone that I play poker but my closest friends know and there was a friend when I started playing and winning, who started playing too. It was easier for him because when I started I had to find my own way, while he had me and I was guiding him.

Since I'm going to be busy on Monday, there have been no analysis submissions in the last couple of days, and I already have a few to choose from, I'm going to close the game tonight.

Tomorrow I will reveal the encrypted message, expose my analysis and announce the winner.

---

Ok guys, so this is the signed message, I hope you can verify it (I just did).

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
For the prize to the best analysis of a poker hand, the criteria will be:

A) You have to talk about ranges. Not hands.
B) You have to narrow the ranges from preflop to river.
C) You have to talk about equity in the river.

-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
bc1q2z248q6kaasd549pjunjd6740hlf50wkvcu9s0
H+PIN/bvA5T1ENyG5k6PW2KcKTHNuILETGx0WMzNDilRPUUw/QTQ9g46K7H7oCF7o3DdgY26Ryyqk9efJBkoPAk=

-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----

What I wanted to highlight with this analysis is the difference between old school poker theory and modern poker theory. In modern poker we talk about ranges, and even when we play we don't play our hand we play our range.

According to these criteria, the best analysis would be Mauser's, but I would also like to reward a little bit tokeweed's, as he also talked about ranges which was what I was looking for.

I propose to give Mauser 0.003 BTC and tokeweed the rest of what I have in that wallet, about 0.0008. I will PM Mauser to see if he agrees, because although in the title I talked about 0.003 BTC, then in the OP I talked about 0.003355 BTC for the best analysis.

---

I wanted to put my hand analysis separately for clarity. I would like to ask the moderators not to merge the posts, taking into account that these posts do not count for my signature campaign, and that I created this thread in an altruistic way.

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My analysis.

We can assume that the villain (rival) is stealing with 50% of the range. It may be more or less, but without more data, assuming 50% steal from BU is pretty safe. So, something like: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,98o

As for the flop, there is little to analyze. The villain makes a standard cbet, which on that flop he will do practically 100% of the time, so the range is the same. We could go into the range perceived by the villain of Hero’s call on the flop, because when he pays he has something, at least an underpair or overcards, as is the case, but I will not elaborate.

The turn comes and with TPTK, Hero decides to donk to extract value from worse hands like worse tens, some nines and also for protection against projects.
So, when the villain pays, with what range does he pay?

It's clear that he doesn't pay with hands like K5o, that don't connect anything on that board. I narrow the range to worse tens, some nines and draws. 78, sets and double pairs raise on that turn, because there are a lot of projects to protect from and to extract value. Of the monster projects, like TQd, I think most don't raise because there is only one street left, raising here isolates them against strong hands and makes bluffs fold. In short, the range of the opponent when paying is about 30% (I estimate), something like JJ+,ATs-A9s,K9s+,QTs+,Q8s,J8s+,T7s+,ATo-A9o,KTo-K9o,Q8o+,J9o+,T8o+,98o,87o

When the river comes, it makes no sense to bet again, weaker hands fold and stronger pay or raise. It is better to check call to catch bluffs. But when he bets 150% of the pot, he is polarizing, as Mauser and tokeweed pointed out. We need a minimum equity of about 35% to make a profitable call and even if we don’t narrow his range, with that river we have a 63% vs 37% equity, so it is a clear call.

But if we do things correctly, we need to narrow his range even further and we will see that the call is more profitable.
With that bet you only have bluffs or very strong hands. What strong hands does he have? Basically two. Sets and doubles have been discarded on the turn. The only ones I can see would be KK, that completes a set on the river and JQ that completes a straight. The rest are missed draws. So, we can see that calling on the river is extremely profitable.

I specifically wanted to emphasize with this hand that once we narrow the range of the villain, the hands we discard are not taken into account in the following streets. When we see the overbet on the river, someone without much experience in hand analysis, might think that the villain has completed a straight on the turn with 78 or that he has sets of 3, 6 or 9. But those hands have already been discarded, so we can not take them into account on the river.


And, btw, he happened to have J7o.


[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]