That domain  just make sure such "considerations" won't apply to NATO
Why so? You're NATO agent or what? Why you against the same treatment for NATO as for others? In the case of mercenaries, I've got no problem with them getting the death penalty for nothing more than getting caught in-country if that's what a civilian court wants to do. Local militias capturing them and applying whatever justice they are inclined to would be even more satisfying. SF personnel from third-party nations and spies, same. Those who cannot stand the heat should stay out of the kitchen.
As i said above, any russian soldier can be considered as merc, since russia didn't declare a war to Ukraine. Well, because US is the one supporting this war (like literally, UA would fold financially and militarily without US in a week). Why would US continue holding UA up if UA starts calling US military mercs? When was the last time US declared war on anyone? |
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Nasdaq futures are down 2% guess we need another black Thursday for BTC to finally decouple once and for all. Bring on the pain, btc is NOT a de-risk asset
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It's easy: If the main criteria for you is "to be paid" it's easy to say that every russian soldier is a mercenary in terms of international law. russia didn't declare a war to Ukraine, only some kind of "special operation", so all it's soldiers on ukraine territory it's a mercenaries. Without a proper (in terms of russian law) procedure they are going to another country to fight because of the fat they get paid for it.
Bla bla bla So, as i see, you don't mind and agree with the idea that of russia didn't proclaime a war to Ukraine we can consider russian soldiers as mercs and can sentence them to death? Ok. Fair deal i think. If russians will shot this guys we should do the same with russian mercenaries. You funny. You can consider whatever you want, just make sure such "considerations" won't apply to NATO ‘For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law’ |
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Following that logic Aiden Aslin wasn't a mecenary in Syria as well if he also signed some form there?
It's easy: If the main criteria for you is "to be paid" it's easy to say that every russian soldier is a mercenary in terms of international law. russia didn't declare a war to Ukraine, only some kind of "special operation", so all it's soldiers on ukraine territory it's a mercenaries. Without a proper (in terms of russian law) procedure they are going to another country to fight because of the fat they get paid for it. So, DaRude trying to tell us that if Ukraine will sentence to death russian soldiers it will be good. Understood Again, about "denazificators":  Translation: "I don't believe in anything, I'm here to do violence" Patch of the dead Wagner merc. At least this one will not be able "to do violence" anymore. Whoa, bite your tongue! With such criteria, you're labeling all those blokes from US and NATO during all those "operations" mercenaries? Careful, don't bite the hand that feeds you, they're the ones that are literally paying the bills for all of this now, wouldn't want to upset them. Need to come up with a more hypocritical two-faced clever criteria, like you're a mercenary if you get paid.* *Unless you're part of an alliance that starts with NAT* |
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The matter is still the same, the RF is not only showing disrespect for PoWs, they are even making a point of killing them in public. What can you expect if you are an RF captured soldier and there are no officers present?
You've got it all mixed up again. The trial of the mercenaries took place in the DPR, from the point of view of Russia it is an independent state, from the point of view of Ukraine it is the Donetsk region within Ukraine. Putin is a powerful man, but he has no power over the Supreme Court of a sovereign state (he doesn't even have power over Russia's Supreme Court). Of the countries that really matter to the case, this "independent state" is only recognised by RF and only sustained thanks to the RF money and weaponry. Stop pretending that something in the RF or the "republics" is done without the seal of the Tzar, nobody is going to believe you. Again, you can make any argument you want, it does not change the chances for the RF invading army PoWs.
Ukraine may actually be following it at government level - you can follow the convention even if you do not recognise it.
The matter is still the same, the RF is not only showing disrespect for PoWs, they are even making a point of killing them in public. What can you expect if you are an RF captured soldier and there are no officers present?
I heard its even worse if officer is present Officers of the Ukrainian defence army are there to implement the official policies. As of now, the official policy is to follow the rules of war and the Geneva Convention as far as I know. There may be groups in Ukraine that may not have such a degree of discipline, but that is a completely different matter from having an official policy of classing PoWs as "terrorists" and kill them. All in all, this simply makes life much harder for both RF and Ukrainian soldiers. I'd be careful challenging independence on the grounds of being sustained thanks to other nation's money and weaponry. We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says UkraineUkraine’s deputy head of military intelligence has said Ukraine is losing against Russia on the frontlines and is now reliant almost solely on weapons from the west to keep Russia at bay.
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“This is an artillery war now,” said Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence.
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“Everything now depends on what [the west] gives us,” said Skibitsky.
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“Words turn into actions. That’s the difference between Ukraine’s relationship with Great Britain and other countries,” Zelenskiy said in a video statement. “Weapons, finance, sanctions – on these three issues, Britain shows leadership.”
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Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, according to Skibitsky. “We have almost used up all of our [artillery] ammunition and are now using 155-calibre Nato standard shells,” he said of the ammunition that is fired from artillery pieces.
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This week the Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych told the Guardian that Ukraine needed 60 multiple-rocket launchers – many more than the handful promised so far by the UK and US – to have a chance of defeating Russia.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraineThe latest bill, which had been delayed for a week by the objection of Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, includes money for logistical support and training for Ukrainian military and national security forces, and for a fund intended to secure the continuity of Ukraine’s government. https://web.archive.org/web/20220609211642/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/20/upshot/ukraine-us-aid-size.htmlAs far as mercenaries, I believe to become Ukrainian citizen they would have to give up their previous citizenship as Ukraine doesn't allow dual citizenship, which apparently didn't happen. How are they different from other mercenaries, or is the claim that there are no mercenaries at all in Ukraine and all foreign fighters fall under Geneva convention now because they signed some paper with UA army? Following that logic Aiden Aslin wasn't a mecenary in Syria as well if he also signed some form there? |
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Ukraine is a large strategic piece of land that creates a military buffer zone between the south-west and west. That is why Russia wants to exterminate 40+ million people and destroy and then rebuild the area. Erase Ukrainian culture and replace it with Russian culture.
That is the plan.
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Since there is no credible evidence for this even though they have already a ton of opportunities, it's pretty clearly a 'plan' that originates in your own fever-dream mind mostly. With help from psychological operations targeting your caliber of person of course. Actually I kind of doubt that even you really believe very much of the BS you've been spouting, but whether or not it's not of much consequence. Here's a summary of this report. I know, I know, it's not Russian propaganda or written by big time youtube conspiracy theorists so you will just dismiss it and attempt to appear more intelligent than anyone who relies on experts and journalists rather than youtube conspiratards. I'll post it anyway. Russia is responsible for inciting genocide and perpetrating atrocities that show an “intent to destroy” the Ukrainian people, a new legal analysis signed by more than 30 independent experts concluded.
The report, published Friday by the Washington-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy and the Montreal-based Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, also concludes that there is “serious risk of genocide in Ukraine,” and that states have a legal obligation to prevent genocide from occurring.
It cited denials from high-level Russian officials and state media commentators of the existence of a distinct Ukrainian identity, and dehumanizing claims that Ukrainians are Nazis and “are therefore deserving of punishment.” The report also points to Russian authorities’ rewarding soldiers suspected of mass killings in Ukraine, among other evidence.
“The purveyors of incitement propaganda are all highly influential political, religious and State-run media figures, including President Putin,” the report says. “There is mounting evidence that Russian soldiers have internalized and are responding to the State propaganda campaign by echoing its content while committing atrocities.”
Genocide, often seen as the ultimate crime, has a precise legal definition: “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”
The joint report Friday included input from about three dozen experts on genocide and international law, including several former ambassadors and others who were involved in the creation and proceedings of international criminal tribunals.
Their analysis pointed to a genocidal pattern of Russian forces’ targeting of Ukrainian civilians, including evidence of mass executions and torture of civilians in areas that were occupied by Russian forces, such as the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, as well as deliberate attacks on shelters, evacuation routes and humanitarian corridors; sieges of Ukrainian cities; and indiscriminate bombing of residential areas. The report also cited sexual violence and reports of the forcible deportation of Ukrainians to Russia. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/27/genocide-ukraine-russia-analysis/Would you do me a favor and look up how many Ukrainians live in Russia, how many in Crimea and RU controlled Donbas and how is the "final solution" for those millions of Ukrainians has been going there, for the last 8yrs? Also, how many migrated to Russia since Feb 23? How about that Ukrainian born who became an oligarch in Russia and was also sanctioned? Is DPR military waging a genocide against themselves, so their losses also go towards genocide count? These same idiots refused to call genocide in Rwanda a genocide at this point they're just making a mockery of genocides! |
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Thank you for acknowledging that Ukraine didn't implement those two points. Words have meanings, you should look up differences between "impossible" and "undesirable"!
1) "did Ukraine abide by the Minsk agreements from 2014 until 2022?" -> "Of course, they did."
2) "This point was not fulfilled by Russia. It was impossible to accomplish anything else with Russia."
That is objectively called lying! You're not going to raise any support by lying! You can't expect anyone with half a brain to fall for such cheap trick! You can finger point all day long, explain how they weren't fair, or provide reasons why Ukraine didn't implementing Minsk agreements by blaming DPR/LPR not implementing other points first, that's all fine, but what you cannot do is fool people by saying that Ukraine implemented Minsk agreements. That's just a lie, you ruin any credibility you've had by claiming such nonsense, and trying to make idiots out of the readers!
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I am saying that I consider the treaty signed under threats and it was never fully followed by ANYONE. This is public information, there is nothing new in what I am saying and you are simply looking at one side with absolute disregard for any element of balance or equanimity in the information provided. Minsk II it was a manoeuvre by Adolf Putin to pat the back of Macron and let him think he was on the path to the Nobel Peace Price. No wonder Adolf Putin considered that Europe would not do anything. RE credibility and taking people for fools, you need now to answer a few questions: 1) Did Adolf Putin's RF respect THEIR side of the agreement? 2) The RF is justified on an attempt to a full invasion of Ukraine because the treaty was, in your view, not respected by Ukraine? Is that your idea of proportionality? 3) If so, would not now an full scale invasion of the RF be justified by Adolf Putin's actions? You should not try to play this cheap and accuse when anyone can learn about the fact even with a minimum search. No wonder you are defending this war of aggression and the mass killings. Following reports of Ukrainian positions being shelled from the Russian side of the border, between 22 and 25 August 2014, Russian artillery, personnel, and what Russia called a "humanitarian convoy" crossed the border. Russian crossings reportedly occurred both in areas that were controlled by pro-Russian forces and those that were not, such as the south-eastern part of Donetsk Oblast, near Novoazovsk.[42][43] The Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, called the events of 22 August a "direct invasion by Russia of Ukraine" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas#cite_note-53The Minsk II deal set out military and political steps that remain unimplemented. A major blockage has been Russia’s insistence that it is not a party to the conflict and therefore is not bound by its terms. In general, Moscow and Kyiv interpret the pact very differently, leading to what has been dubbed by some observers as the “Minsk conundrum”. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-nowThe agreement contains a timeline for implementation but no binding mechanism, though certain elements—for example, promises to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, efforts by France and Germany to help restore financial links with the separatist territories, and promises to continue trilateral dialogue between the EU, Ukraine, and Russia as well as the Normandy-format discussions—are quite important from a technical perspective. https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/59059All military agreements to end conflicts are signed under a threat, that's kind of their thing. Following that logic, should capitulation of Germany be anulled because it was also signed under some threats? 1) Did Adolf Putin's RF respect THEIR side of the agreement?Disregarding your cheap name calling, clearly not. And if i tried to claim otherwise you should call me out on it. And if i tried to claim that RF respected their side of the agreement and then afterwards tried to justify that by claiming that it was impossible for RF to do so because UA didn't as well, you'd be right to call me a liar. So it'd be nice to find some common ground to clean up clear fakesAnd no i don't find this war as justified as much as inevitable. Like i previously said, had it not been Ukraine, i'd be asked to justify fighting against political freedom in Belarus, if not that then LGBT+ freedoms for Kazakhstan, if not that then religious freedom for Chechnya etc... Point being is there are a lot of unfair things happening everywhere in the world, and a hegemony can always exploit one part of the world to start a righteous conflict in another where is suits it. Yeah it sucks that it happened in Ukraine, yes innocent people are dying, yes they are made to believe that they're fighting for their freedom against main evil Orc Adolf, but ultimately they're just being exploited with a soft power ( a carrot freedom cookie ) with already foreknown outcome. That's why i take no joy seeing Ukraine encouraged to fight till they reach Moscow or the last standing Ukrainian. It's like watching a much smaller kid trying to fight a big kid, everyone egging on a smaller kid from a side is not his friend and is not doing him any favors. |
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... Ugh so now plan put forth by France and Germany in response to offensive by the separatists, dubbed as "last chance" by French president, was coercive and wasn't "lawful"? If Poroshenko who started implementing all of that anti-Russian language laws was Putin's puppet Poroshenko who won with 54,7% (with next in line Tymoshenko receiving 12,8%) wasn't "legitimate government" can you explain who in 2015 should've signed such agreement? ... Nobody should. It is giving away territory and concessions just to appease Adolf Putin. Big mistake. If they don't belong to the state, why is the state the one complaining? Shouldn't it be some company stating that it lost so many tons of grain?
I didn't think this could get any more absurd, but thank you for proving me wrong. Yeah, why aren't farmers complaining, in a territory occupied by a totalitarian regime known to disappear people, when said regime is taking their property. Why didn't the people in Bucha complain on Russian state TV about getting killed? But yes, "some company" did complain: Ukraine's largest steelmaker Metinvest on Friday said it was concerned that Russia may use several ships stranded in Mariupol to "steal and smuggle metallurgical products" belonging to the group. It accused Russia of piracy.
Asked on Saturday whether the metal due to be shipped out belonged to Metinvest, a company spokesman said: "We said yesterday that our metal is in the port of Mariupol, yes."
Please move the goalposts by no less than 20 meters next time. I haven't looked into this situation in detail, but this may be Russia's symmetrical response to the recent seizure of its assets in Ukraine worth more than a billion dollars. Stop whining, it works both ways. I don't know how much of an idiot you have to be to take money from the Russians and think you can get away with it. "Russian has always come for their money". (c) Otto von Bismarck Seize assets (AKA plunder and steal), it seems to me that Ukraine will be rebuilt with the sales of some yatchs, plenty of London ("Londongrad" / "Moscow upon thames") houses and flats in prime districts, gold reserves in custody. There is no way Adolf Putin can try to be "symmetrical" in the sanctions because it is simply beyond his power to do so. In the end, Russia still holds some Soviet era military gadgets, but economically is just another (poorly led) country sending their young to die for no purpose. "Never bet against America" - Warren Buffet It's a nice quote, but what's the logic here? Back in 2014 Ukraine was loosing land even without official Russian involvement. Germany and France clearly didn't want to get involved (as today), Ukraine didn't have 8yrs of training and weapons from US, are you saying Ukraine should've fully surrender/got captured back in 2014? Pretty sure that was their plan and Germany/France managed to get Russia to compromise on some land, and now Germany/France are the bad guys for doing that? And even for today i still can't trace such logic. Are you betting on Russia not fully mobilizing and just surrendering even before mobilization? Or is the bet on Ukraine somehow winning when Russia mobilizes? Or are you pushing for NATO involvement after Russian mobilization aka WW3? And yes US/EU stole exponentially more of Russian property without any court rulings, think they even sanctioned Ukrainian born billionaire, so much for the idea of genocide |
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...blah, blah, broken Minsk agreement, we did nothing wrong, we are innocent, we just invaded you and annexed Crimea, blah, blah... Read this fucking thing again.
"Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups."
This point was not fulfilled by Russia. It was impossible to accomplish anything else with Russia. They vetoed all UN resolutions to bring peace to this region.
I am even surprised they "agreed" to this point when they knew they never planned to fulfill it. But that is what Russians do, think one thing,
say something else, and do something else altogether.
Not only that, they brought more military and FSB personnel after they signed this agreement.
This conflict was orchestrated by Russia. Both FSB and military were involved first in Crimea and immediately afterward in Donbas when
FSB terrorists captured the Sloviansk police station. The rest is history.
The Minsk 'agreements' were signed to buy Russia time to ferment more 'pro-Russian' sympathy in Donbas, but when this did not work, we got the Feb 24th invasion as Putin was fed up with Russian speaking Ukrainians.
Thank you for acknowledging that Ukraine didn't implement those two points. Words have meanings, you should look up differences between "impossible" and "undesirable"! 1) "did Ukraine abide by the Minsk agreements from 2014 until 2022?" -> "Of course, they did."2) "This point was not fulfilled by Russia. It was impossible to accomplish anything else with Russia."
That is objectively called lying! You're not going to raise any support by lying! You can't expect anyone with half a brain to fall for such cheap trick! You can finger point all day long, explain how they weren't fair, or provide reasons why Ukraine didn't implementing Minsk agreements by blaming DPR/LPR not implementing other points first, that's all fine, but what you cannot do is fool people by saying that Ukraine implemented Minsk agreements. That's just a lie, you ruin any credibility you've had by claiming such nonsense, and trying to make idiots out of the readers! That is right, Russia lied. They never had any intention of removing their FSB and military from Donbas or Crimea. Merkel and Macron are both idiots to believe in such nonsense. This time around, they thought they can pull Crimea 2014 annexation scenario. You know the "Green Men" on vacation doing their hobbies, we don't know anything about it, it is Ukrainians that wanted the referendum, etc. Just like before they amassed a 200K army on the border in January, they said that they never intended to invade Ukraine. They lied. Just like they said they did not invade Ukraine, and at the same time, their forces were storming Kyiv. They were lying. Just like now, they said they never stole grain and steel from Ukraine. They lied. Just like now, they said they never target civilian targets, don't rape, don't steal, don't kidnap children, and don't execute civilians. Guess, what, they lied. And keep lying. Russkiy Mir, my friend. Guess what? Their spiel is up. Even the naive westerners caught on, and now the whole civilized world knows what these terrorists are doing. You can only trust dead Russians. If I were in the Ukrainian government I would advise them not to talk to Russians. Just kill them all on your territory, close the border completely, create a 1-2km mined buffer zone on the border, and never ever again trade or deal with Russia. Criminalize communist or Soviet propaganda, criminalize pro-Russian views, prosecute all pro-Russian advocates, let them leave Ukraine, and ban them from ever entering the country. Oh, yeah, once you recover from this clusterfuck, allocate 20% of your GDP to the military, join NATO, and obtain nuclear weapons. Just stop, you're only making it worse for yourself. Whatboutism about politicians lying in no way covers you lying here to us! Politicians lie, I'm just shocked  If you show me a politician that doesn't lie, then you'll be the one lying, now how's that relevant to members posting obvious lies on here? |
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Russia recognized DNR and LNR as independent states, rest of the world did not, so all of accusations of stealing stem from that. Following that logic you might as well claim that they used "stolen" port and stole ships in Crimea for transport. Since Crimea is in a similar state of world recognition
That's absurd. The commodities being stolen don't belong to the state, be it Ukraine, DNR/LNR, or Russia. Does the "recognition" now imply forced nationalization of all private property? BTW grain is being looted in Kherson region and other areas not part of DNR/LNR. And of course the "liberators" try to steal money as well, because why not: In Melitopol, during an inventory of the premises of banking institutions, hryvnias of various denominations spoiled by employees of Ukrainian banks were found, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
... except the video shows what looks like IBNS theft protection dye. But that's not stealing because DNR/LNR amirite. If they don't belong to the state, why is the state the one complaining? Shouldn't it be some company stating that it lost so many tons of grain? The HIMARS are on the way. Don't worry, brothers. The first four are already in Europe, and they are meant for training purposes. Later, when our soldiers will learn to operate HIMARS, we'll be receiving dozens of them until the invaders will run off of our land. There's no two ways about it. It's important for the whole world to see that an attempt to change the government of another sovereign country by force fails.
The Javelins didn't help, the Bayraktars didn't help, the M777s didn't help, but multiple launch rocket systems will definitely help. A good plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch. Actually they did help. Russians were pushed out and weren't able to take Kiev. At this point the more Russians die in this war the better for Ukrainians and the numbers keep growing. If a weapon can add to that number it's always good to have it. This is a good piece. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIZIspwem2sI was amazed how young squad commanders are. This guy was a total newbie and apparently finished one of the best military schools in Russia. His superior's vehicle was hit and he didn't know what to do, what date it is, how to proceed. -shit they are shooting at us -shoot them -the gun is stuck -let's run away and hide Javelins and bayraktars are a waste of money here. These guys just want to get drunk and sleep in a warm bed. It could be better for US but i fail to see how that's better for Ukraine? Every day hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers die and more land is lost, i don't see how that can be better for Ukraine? Minsk agreements (guaranteed by Germany and France) called for autonomy for LPR and DPR, now Russia controls that plus majority of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa also seem to be on the Russian radar. Whatever happens, happens for the best only works for propaganda. Oh they took Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Well we still won, and loosing thousands lives was worth it cause we saved Dnipr and Odessa. Oh they took Dnipr and Odessa, well see still worth it because we saved Kyiv. Oh they took Kyiv well we still won and sacrificing our army was worth it because we saved Poland? EU? cause surely they would've been next and we caused so many casualties to Russia  Western allies meeting regularly to game out potential framework for Ukraine ceasefire as war hits 100th day US officials have in recent weeks been meeting regularly with their British and European counterparts to discuss potential frameworks for a ceasefire and for ending the war through a negotiated settlement...Ukraine is not directly involved in those discussions, despite the US commitment to "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." Even CNN sentiment and coverage appears to be changing, realpolitiks Russia broke all Minsk agreements with Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. When dealing with Russia, the "guarantees on paper" are worth less than the paper they are written on. The West needs to understand that this conflict needs to be resolved militarily not only in Ukraine. As long as the Russian regime is not defeated, this aggression will continue in other countries. Russian military needs to be defeated, Moscow needs to be captured, and all Russian nuclear weapons need to be disarmed and deactivated. True statement, but did Ukraine abide by the Minsk agreements from 2014 until 2022? This is a very scary proposition, to a point where i'm not even sure who's side you're on anymore. Saying that every Ukrainian should fight until Moscow is captured, is setting unattainable goals in which you needlessly doom a lot of Ukrainians to their death. Literally being set up for failure with almost religious undertones as if they're fighting for something greater than all of them, fighting for all of Europe/humanity/free world/galaxy/universe. If Ukrainians are so eager to lay their lives for someone else's war, how about setting them to fight China till the last Ukrainian while we're at it? I'm sure the free world would gladly donate as many weapons as Ukraine can handle. How is any of that is good for Ukrainians?? Of course, they did. It was Russia that vetoed UN proposals to bring peacekeepers into the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia broke the agreements as soon as they were signed by introducing its military to the Ukrainian territory. Russia is a terrorist state. No one should be doing any business with them, never mind signing any political agreements. Only a total demilitarization of Russia and a breakup into independent democratic states will bring peace to this world. Imperialist Russia will ALWAYS be an existential threat to humanity. - Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.
- Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
- for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
- for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
- Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
- On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014. - Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
- Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
- Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.
- Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions. - Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
- Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
- Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
- Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
- Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
Can you point me to how the above highlighted points from Minsk 2 were implemented by Ukraine? Read this fucking thing again. "Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups."This point was not fulfilled by Russia. It was impossible to accomplish anything else with Russia. They vetoed all UN resolutions to bring peace to this region. I am even surprised they "agreed" to this point when they knew they never planned to fulfill it. But that is what Russians do, think one thing, say something else, and do something else altogether. Not only that, they brought more military and FSB personnel after they signed this agreement. This conflict was orchestrated by Russia. Both FSB and military were involved first in Crimea and immediately afterward in Donbas when FSB terrorists captured the Sloviansk police station. The rest is history. The Minsk 'agreements' were signed to buy Russia time to ferment more 'pro-Russian' sympathy in Donbas, but when this did not work, we got the Feb 24th invasion as Putin was fed up with Russian speaking Ukrainians. Thank you for acknowledging that Ukraine didn't implement those two points. Words have meanings, you should look up differences between "impossible" and "undesirable"! 1) "did Ukraine abide by the Minsk agreements from 2014 until 2022?" -> "Of course, they did."2) "This point was not fulfilled by Russia. It was impossible to accomplish anything else with Russia."
That is objectively called lying! You're not going to raise any support by lying! You can't expect anyone with half a brain to fall for such cheap trick! You can finger point all day long, explain how they weren't fair, or provide reasons why Ukraine didn't implementing Minsk agreements by blaming DPR/LPR not implementing other points first, that's all fine, but what you cannot do is fool people by saying that Ukraine implemented Minsk agreements. That's just a lie, you ruin any credibility you've had by claiming such nonsense, and trying to make idiots out of the readers! |
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The HIMARS are on the way. Don't worry, brothers. The first four are already in Europe, and they are meant for training purposes. Later, when our soldiers will learn to operate HIMARS, we'll be receiving dozens of them until the invaders will run off of our land. There's no two ways about it. It's important for the whole world to see that an attempt to change the government of another sovereign country by force fails.
It worked in 2014  Yet it solved nothing. What Betwrong says is absolutely right, Adolf Putin must fail because there is no limit to his ambition, including the welfare and even the lives of his "serfs" in the army nor the living of those now unemployed due to foreign investment running away. This is the moment to stop the Tzar and do so in a way that is for all to be seen. The Minsk in 2015 agreement was signed by Poroshenko, pretty much a puppet inspired by Adolf Putin. You cannot pretend to implement such a coercive agreement and pretend is "lawful". An agreement has to come from a legitimate government and be signed on mutually beneficial terms - before you say anything "... or else I will invade your country" is not classed as a beneficial term.[/list] After heavy fighting, DPR forces captured the symbolically important Donetsk International Airport on 21 January, the last part of the city of Donetsk that had been under Ukrainian control. Following this victory, separatist forces pressed their offensive on the important railway and road junction of Debaltseve in late January. This renewed heavy fighting caused significant concern in the international community. French president François Hollande and German chancellor Angela Merkel put forth a new peace plan on 7 February.
The Franco-German plan, drawn up after talks with Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and Russian president Vladimir Putin, was seen as a revival of the Minsk Protocol. President Hollande said that the plan was the "last chance" for resolution of the conflict. The plan was put forth in response to American proposals to send armaments to the Ukrainian government, something that Chancellor Merkel said would only result in a worsening of the crisis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements#Minsk_II,_February_2015Ugh so now plan put forth by France and Germany in response to offensive by the separatists, dubbed as "last chance" by French president, was coercive and wasn't "lawful"? If Poroshenko who started implementing all of that anti-Russian language laws was Putin's puppet Poroshenko who won with 54,7% (with next in line Tymoshenko receiving 12,8%) wasn't "legitimate government" can you explain who in 2015 should've signed such agreement? And you do realize how this all sounds from the other perspective right? Sure it was put together by France and Germany, due to Ukraine loosing land, and sure our president totally signed it, but we still didn't like it and that's why we didn't implement it so Ukraine signs the plan to buy more time and started receiving armaments from US |
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Russia recognized DNR and LNR as independent states, rest of the world did not, so all of accusations of stealing stem from that. Following that logic you might as well claim that they used "stolen" port and stole ships in Crimea for transport. Since Crimea is in a similar state of world recognition
That's absurd. The commodities being stolen don't belong to the state, be it Ukraine, DNR/LNR, or Russia. Does the "recognition" now imply forced nationalization of all private property? BTW grain is being looted in Kherson region and other areas not part of DNR/LNR. And of course the "liberators" try to steal money as well, because why not: In Melitopol, during an inventory of the premises of banking institutions, hryvnias of various denominations spoiled by employees of Ukrainian banks were found, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
... except the video shows what looks like IBNS theft protection dye. But that's not stealing because DNR/LNR amirite. If they don't belong to the state, why is the state the one complaining? Shouldn't it be some company stating that it lost so many tons of grain? The HIMARS are on the way. Don't worry, brothers. The first four are already in Europe, and they are meant for training purposes. Later, when our soldiers will learn to operate HIMARS, we'll be receiving dozens of them until the invaders will run off of our land. There's no two ways about it. It's important for the whole world to see that an attempt to change the government of another sovereign country by force fails.
The Javelins didn't help, the Bayraktars didn't help, the M777s didn't help, but multiple launch rocket systems will definitely help. A good plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch. Actually they did help. Russians were pushed out and weren't able to take Kiev. At this point the more Russians die in this war the better for Ukrainians and the numbers keep growing. If a weapon can add to that number it's always good to have it. This is a good piece. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIZIspwem2sI was amazed how young squad commanders are. This guy was a total newbie and apparently finished one of the best military schools in Russia. His superior's vehicle was hit and he didn't know what to do, what date it is, how to proceed. -shit they are shooting at us -shoot them -the gun is stuck -let's run away and hide Javelins and bayraktars are a waste of money here. These guys just want to get drunk and sleep in a warm bed. It could be better for US but i fail to see how that's better for Ukraine? Every day hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers die and more land is lost, i don't see how that can be better for Ukraine? Minsk agreements (guaranteed by Germany and France) called for autonomy for LPR and DPR, now Russia controls that plus majority of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa also seem to be on the Russian radar. Whatever happens, happens for the best only works for propaganda. Oh they took Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Well we still won, and loosing thousands lives was worth it cause we saved Dnipr and Odessa. Oh they took Dnipr and Odessa, well see still worth it because we saved Kyiv. Oh they took Kyiv well we still won and sacrificing our army was worth it because we saved Poland? EU? cause surely they would've been next and we caused so many casualties to Russia Western allies meeting regularly to game out potential framework for Ukraine ceasefire as war hits 100th day US officials have in recent weeks been meeting regularly with their British and European counterparts to discuss potential frameworks for a ceasefire and for ending the war through a negotiated settlement...Ukraine is not directly involved in those discussions, despite the US commitment to "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." Even CNN sentiment and coverage appears to be changing, realpolitiks Russia broke all Minsk agreements with Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. When dealing with Russia, the "guarantees on paper" are worth less than the paper they are written on. The West needs to understand that this conflict needs to be resolved militarily not only in Ukraine. As long as the Russian regime is not defeated, this aggression will continue in other countries. Russian military needs to be defeated, Moscow needs to be captured, and all Russian nuclear weapons need to be disarmed and deactivated. True statement, but did Ukraine abide by the Minsk agreements from 2014 until 2022? This is a very scary proposition, to a point where i'm not even sure who's side you're on anymore. Saying that every Ukrainian should fight until Moscow is captured, is setting unattainable goals in which you needlessly doom a lot of Ukrainians to their death. Literally being set up for failure with almost religious undertones as if they're fighting for something greater than all of them, fighting for all of Europe/humanity/free world/galaxy/universe. If Ukrainians are so eager to lay their lives for someone else's war, how about setting them to fight China till the last Ukrainian while we're at it? I'm sure the free world would gladly donate as many weapons as Ukraine can handle. How is any of that is good for Ukrainians?? Of course, they did. It was Russia that vetoed UN proposals to bring peacekeepers into the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia broke the agreements as soon as they were signed by introducing its military to the Ukrainian territory. Russia is a terrorist state. No one should be doing any business with them, never mind signing any political agreements. Only a total demilitarization of Russia and a breakup into independent democratic states will bring peace to this world. Imperialist Russia will ALWAYS be an existential threat to humanity. - Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.
- Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
- for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
- for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
- Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
- On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014. - Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
- Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
- Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.
- Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions. - Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
- Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
- Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
- Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
- Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
Can you point me to how the above highlighted points from Minsk 2 were implemented by Ukraine? |
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Russia recognized DNR and LNR as independent states, rest of the world did not, so all of accusations of stealing stem from that. Following that logic you might as well claim that they used "stolen" port and stole ships in Crimea for transport. Since Crimea is in a similar state of world recognition
That's absurd. The commodities being stolen don't belong to the state, be it Ukraine, DNR/LNR, or Russia. Does the "recognition" now imply forced nationalization of all private property? BTW grain is being looted in Kherson region and other areas not part of DNR/LNR. And of course the "liberators" try to steal money as well, because why not: In Melitopol, during an inventory of the premises of banking institutions, hryvnias of various denominations spoiled by employees of Ukrainian banks were found, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
... except the video shows what looks like IBNS theft protection dye. But that's not stealing because DNR/LNR amirite. If they don't belong to the state, why is the state the one complaining? Shouldn't it be some company stating that it lost so many tons of grain? The HIMARS are on the way. Don't worry, brothers. The first four are already in Europe, and they are meant for training purposes. Later, when our soldiers will learn to operate HIMARS, we'll be receiving dozens of them until the invaders will run off of our land. There's no two ways about it. It's important for the whole world to see that an attempt to change the government of another sovereign country by force fails.
The Javelins didn't help, the Bayraktars didn't help, the M777s didn't help, but multiple launch rocket systems will definitely help. A good plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch. Actually they did help. Russians were pushed out and weren't able to take Kiev. At this point the more Russians die in this war the better for Ukrainians and the numbers keep growing. If a weapon can add to that number it's always good to have it. This is a good piece. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIZIspwem2sI was amazed how young squad commanders are. This guy was a total newbie and apparently finished one of the best military schools in Russia. His superior's vehicle was hit and he didn't know what to do, what date it is, how to proceed. -shit they are shooting at us -shoot them -the gun is stuck -let's run away and hide Javelins and bayraktars are a waste of money here. These guys just want to get drunk and sleep in a warm bed. It could be better for US but i fail to see how that's better for Ukraine? Every day hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers die and more land is lost, i don't see how that can be better for Ukraine? Minsk agreements (guaranteed by Germany and France) called for autonomy for LPR and DPR, now Russia controls that plus majority of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa also seem to be on the Russian radar. Whatever happens, happens for the best only works for propaganda. Oh they took Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Well we still won, and loosing thousands lives was worth it cause we saved Dnipr and Odessa. Oh they took Dnipr and Odessa, well see still worth it because we saved Kyiv. Oh they took Kyiv well we still won and sacrificing our army was worth it because we saved Poland? EU? cause surely they would've been next and we caused so many casualties to Russia Western allies meeting regularly to game out potential framework for Ukraine ceasefire as war hits 100th day US officials have in recent weeks been meeting regularly with their British and European counterparts to discuss potential frameworks for a ceasefire and for ending the war through a negotiated settlement...Ukraine is not directly involved in those discussions, despite the US commitment to "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." Even CNN sentiment and coverage appears to be changing, realpolitiks Russia broke all Minsk agreements with Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. When dealing with Russia, the "guarantees on paper" are worth less than the paper they are written on. The West needs to understand that this conflict needs to be resolved militarily not only in Ukraine. As long as the Russian regime is not defeated, this aggression will continue in other countries. Russian military needs to be defeated, Moscow needs to be captured, and all Russian nuclear weapons need to be disarmed and deactivated. True statement, but did Ukraine abide by the Minsk agreements from 2014 until 2022? This is a very scary proposition, to a point where i'm not even sure who's side you're on anymore. Saying that every Ukrainian should fight until Moscow is captured, is setting unattainable goals in which you needlessly doom a lot of Ukrainians to their death. Literally being set up for failure with almost religious undertones as if they're fighting for something greater than all of them, fighting for all of Europe/humanity/free world/galaxy/universe. If Ukrainians are so eager to lay their lives for someone else's war, how about setting them to fight China till the last Ukrainian while we're at it? I'm sure the free world would gladly donate as many weapons as Ukraine can handle. How is any of that is good for Ukrainians?? |
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Russia recognized DNR and LNR as independent states, rest of the world did not, so all of accusations of stealing stem from that. Following that logic you might as well claim that they used "stolen" port and stole ships in Crimea for transport. Since Crimea is in a similar state of world recognition
That's absurd. The commodities being stolen don't belong to the state, be it Ukraine, DNR/LNR, or Russia. Does the "recognition" now imply forced nationalization of all private property? BTW grain is being looted in Kherson region and other areas not part of DNR/LNR. And of course the "liberators" try to steal money as well, because why not: In Melitopol, during an inventory of the premises of banking institutions, hryvnias of various denominations spoiled by employees of Ukrainian banks were found, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
... except the video shows what looks like IBNS theft protection dye. But that's not stealing because DNR/LNR amirite. If they don't belong to the state, why is the state the one complaining? Shouldn't it be some company stating that it lost so many tons of grain? The HIMARS are on the way. Don't worry, brothers. The first four are already in Europe, and they are meant for training purposes. Later, when our soldiers will learn to operate HIMARS, we'll be receiving dozens of them until the invaders will run off of our land. There's no two ways about it. It's important for the whole world to see that an attempt to change the government of another sovereign country by force fails.
The Javelins didn't help, the Bayraktars didn't help, the M777s didn't help, but multiple launch rocket systems will definitely help. A good plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch. Actually they did help. Russians were pushed out and weren't able to take Kiev. At this point the more Russians die in this war the better for Ukrainians and the numbers keep growing. If a weapon can add to that number it's always good to have it. This is a good piece. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIZIspwem2sI was amazed how young squad commanders are. This guy was a total newbie and apparently finished one of the best military schools in Russia. His superior's vehicle was hit and he didn't know what to do, what date it is, how to proceed. -shit they are shooting at us -shoot them -the gun is stuck -let's run away and hide Javelins and bayraktars are a waste of money here. These guys just want to get drunk and sleep in a warm bed. It could be better for US but i fail to see how that's better for Ukraine? Every day hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers die and more land is lost, i don't see how that can be better for Ukraine? Minsk agreements (guaranteed by Germany and France) called for autonomy for LPR and DPR, now Russia controls that plus majority of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa also seem to be on the Russian radar. Whatever happens, happens for the best only works for propaganda. Oh they took Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Well we still won, and loosing thousands lives was worth it cause we saved Dnipr and Odessa. Oh they took Dnipr and Odessa, well see still worth it because we saved Kyiv. Oh they took Kyiv well we still won and sacrificing our army was worth it because we saved Poland? EU? cause surely they would've been next and we caused so many casualties to Russia Western allies meeting regularly to game out potential framework for Ukraine ceasefire as war hits 100th day US officials have in recent weeks been meeting regularly with their British and European counterparts to discuss potential frameworks for a ceasefire and for ending the war through a negotiated settlement...Ukraine is not directly involved in those discussions, despite the US commitment to "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." Even CNN sentiment and coverage appears to be changing, realpolitiks |
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Russia doesn't even control all of what is soon to be broken away as 'formerly part of Ukraine' so if they have an abundance of 'Ukrainian' grain, it is because someone in Kiev(-ish) Ukraine sold it to them from the central part of the pre-2022 country. Since there is a general global hunger for rubles, that would make sense.
They control southern areas where a large part of Ukrainian grain production is. And there are many reports of Russians loading and transporting grain to Crimea, if you bothered to look outside of your bitchute safe space. Yup. That's how it works now. The Donbas, Russia proper, and other countries in Central Asia produce a variety of things including steel. Passing through the port of Mariupol as part of their journey to global markets does not necessarily imply that they are 'looted' (unless you are propagandized retard.)
Nonsense, global markets LOL, you just post random words now. The ship goes from Mariupol to "Russia proper". They're taking something that doesn't belong to them AKA stealing. Russia recognized DNR and LNR as independent states, rest of the world did not, so all of accusations of stealing stem from that. Following that logic you might as well claim that they used "stolen" port and stole ships in Crimea for transport. Since Crimea is in a similar state of world recognition Ukraine Accuses NATO's Turkey Over Stolen Grain Before Lavrov Visit https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-accuses-natos-turkey-over-stolen-grain-before-lavrov-visit/ar-AAY2niJGeopolitics was never fair, a lot of people thinking that someone else had their best interest will be disillusioned, people will be told how they should feel about things once men in power reach agreements behind closed doors. Always has, always will be |
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What do you suppose would really happen to Bitcoin globally, if the U.S. were to impose Chinese-style laws? Or even a fraction of that? For one thing, you can forget about rooting for $100k... For one thing.
I myself will continue using Bitcoin no matter what—as long as there is anyone else using Bitcoin. I have advanced technical expertise, and I am ideologically motivated to use Bitcoin regardless of its market value. How many are like me?
Following the China mining ban, what proportion of the global hashrate moved to the U.S.? How many of those miners would continue to operate under adverse regulation? Under an outright ban? In other plausible scenarios?
Bitcoin is resilient. But a major part of its resilience is in its people, not in technology. There are no technological solutions to some problems. Complacency when the writing is on the wall is one of those problems. I am doing my part right here, right now, to try to help solve that problem.
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If US bans bitcoin China and Russia would probably embrace it. The enemy of my enemy... kind of a thing, that's the funny thing about the world that most seem to miss. As far as US, probably same thing would happened when US banned drugs, sure Wall st would leave, price would temporary collapse, but the heart beat will continue and pump out a new block every 10min. If there's a demand for something human laws seem to take a secondary role. As far as hashrate, there are other countries besides China/US, i believe lots of miners moved to Kazakhstan. As long as there's a demand for BTC miners will seek out the lowest priced electricity on this planet, with tolerable laws or corrupt enough enforcement of those laws. If there's enough incentive consequence be damned, risk vs return. |
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... Now to still try and make it work US need to continue to escalate the conflict (first Javelin will be a game changer, MANPADS, then Switchblades, then much needed M777 howitzers, now even more desperately needed HIMARS, next will be ) and as you previously noted everything comes at a cost. Where does that leave Russia, either sit back and do nothing or since US is setting a precedent that selling long range missiles is now acceptable practice and doesn't make you a party to a conflict, Russia can starts selling latest anti-air and anti-ship missiles to Iran, how much do you think it'd take for them to close the straight of Hormuz? ... Turkey, Italy and Greece are connected to the Atlantic ocean through the mediterranean sea. Well Taiwan is also connected to the Atlantic ocean through some body of water don't get tied up on semantics, you need to see the forest behind the trees. Surely if US would deem in beneficial, adding the + to NATO + is the least of the problems. ... Super-funny the comment of the Mediterranean being connected. I guess then Taiwan is connected as well both on the east and the west, north and south through different oceans so all fine. Some legal opinions state that selling weapons to a party in conflict is a legitimate trade according to international law and does not make you a party in the conflict. It does not remove your "non-belligerent" status no matter the precise weaponry, quantity or use - much more questionable to call that "neutrality". To be honest, I think that the RF would not want the US to be officially a belligerent party. https://lieber.westpoint.edu/ukraine-neutrality-co-belligerency-use-of-force/In general, Ukraine is seen as a country unlawfully invaded and defending its territory from an aggression. Most legal opinions would claim that selling weapons to Ukraine is helping restore international legality rather than taking part in a conflict. My personal view is that selling material that will be used to defend the Ukrainian territory is legal and does not remove "non-belligerent" claims, as long as it is not used to strike in Russian territory - again IMHO even that would also bee acceptable if targeting troops or means used for the invasion. That is why US and UK have been very reluctant to send their versions of MLRS (the HIMARS) which have nothing to do with the RF MLRS - much longer range, technologically advanced munitions. So, for now, even M777 that are used within Ukraine are perfectly acceptable IMHO. The switchblades, Javelin, etc.. are pretty much defensive weapons just to provide infantry with a fighting chance against armoured groups. On Iran closing Ormuz, I do not see how that could be a defensive act. Attacking or blockading ships would be an act of war and it would justify a strong response. Looks like MQ-1C Gray Eagle (upgraded predator drone) is the next "game changer" for Ukraine that's totally winning. And US military hackers conducting offensive operations in support of Ukraine, says head of Cyber CommandI'm not sure what ramifications would belligerent status bring to this, but pretty sure we're at the stage where neither Russia nor US would care about legalities much. Iran has some disputed Islands in the straight of Hormuz and can claim 20km if internal waters around them, they threaten to close it every few years. Strait is only like 25km at it's narrowest, and Iran has a lot of land exposure around it Plus conveniently a third of the world's liquefied natural gas and almost 25% of total global oil consumption passes through the strait. If Iran gets its hands on some hyper sonic missiles, that can easily take out an aircraft carrier, that might be enough to change it's math to perhaps partial blocking of US military. China getting few hyper sonic missiles (which can take out an airfield) would instantly nullify billions in fighter jets and patriot missiles sold to Taiwan. Seeing how Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, and with it loosing around 20% of its land to Russia i'd guess thousands of javelins, NLAWs and MANPADS can easily find their way to battle grounds where US is involved. Bottom line there are a lot of painful points Russia can escalate at in retaliation, and of course run away escalations lead from cold wars to hot nuclear ones. Russia indicated that Ukraine was a red line for it, and cornered they really have no better option but to escalate, EU clearly indicating that it doesn't care much for the conflict and just wants it to go away, so we're only left with US still pushing it. Regardless of what happens (short of nuke war) Russia knows that it'll be warm (with gas/oil) and fed (grain) this winter, such certainties don't exist for EU. Knowing that, i just don't see how any escalation can make Russia capitulate, admit a loss and return to long term ruined economy, political unrest, shortages in high tech sectors (and most likely full collapse). That's why I'm confused of US end goal with such semi (but not too far) escalations, surely the expectation can't be of Russia folding and willingly collapsing, guess that's why Kissinger said what he said. |
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The beauty of that is that there is no way Russia can do anything about it they just cannot compete on the soft power field.
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Only options for Russia is sit back and keep loosing countries in its sphere of influence and ultimately be torn apart, or radicalize become a dictatorship and switch the playing field to hard power.
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On regards to the RF becoming a dictatorship "in the future", I think that Moskva has sailed. I think you have depicted the problem, but there is a solution. It is difficult for the RF to assume that its influence is in decline. It is not just the US, it is that all the world is moving ahead and the RF is not keeping the pace. Among other things, if you have the GDP of Italy and spend 11% of it in military you need to take it from schools, doctor, civil research, ... It is a problem of mindset. This is some free consultancy for the RF: Your objective is competing in a world that if itis growing fast. If you are left behind your people and the nation as such will not do well, no matter how many wars you fight. - Develop the east. The territory is immense, the opportunities endless, you do not need to look further. I understand that as of now, there are political reasons why Moscow / St Petersburg would rather not do that, but long term it causes tensions. - Attract investment, both local and foreign. You cannot do without it. See next point on how to enable that, but, as a hint, you should be seen as a pacific partner and stable on that regards. - Put in place the enablers of growth: Rule of law, fair and speedy justice. This implies you need to get rid of the Cleptocrats and local despots, no way around that. - Keep your strengths: good universities, good research, ability to manage complex projects, ... - Use wisely the money that is coming from exporting natural resources. Try to build up the chain of value (e.g. do not export crude oil, but refined products). - Do not enter into unnecessary wars. Your territory is quite protected and other than that your real threat is terrorism (the real one, not the guys with the "tatoos"). - Do not spend 11% of your GDP in weapons - it is not needed. Life could be very different in the RF. Why would US let RF prosper, especially considering it's proximity to China? You know what powerful nations want right? That combination is too dangerous and needs to be stopped at its infancy. Much easier to kneecap RF, take Ukraine out of it's sphere of influence and then it'd be great if that could sustain itself by forcing RF to continue to sell its resources to EU through Ukraine (so UA gets paid transit fees). That's the benefit of having a pact, on top of that you can freeze RF assets and bankrupt it anytime you wish. (That is unless they decide to stop playing such game for some reason) Well, under that premise, you could argue that this war is actually helping US do so. The US is not the only country in the world and, as far as I know, has until now only frozen assets when faced with very serious hostility. Freezing assets is not for free - the US is also getting a reputation hit on this. It might initially seem so. Undercutting Russia in a proxy war without loosing a single American while making Europe totally depended on you, surely looks like a win/win. But there are no guarantees, the best think tanks can analyze the latest data live with best AI and machine learning but all they can propose is their estimated probabilities. Problem with that is if you're wrong you've actively pushed Russia and China together. The road to hell is paved with good intentions (This is well demonstrated by US sponsoring Osama bin Laden, and taking out Saddam Hussein only to create vacuum for ISIS to grow). Russia drawing red lines over Ukraine/Belarus/Kazakhstan (Russian speaking countries) seems logical, on the other hand US getting billions from Saudi Arabia by selling them weapons and enabling war in Yemen, only to escalate conflict in Ukraine because US suddenly cares about freedom of Ukrainians seems insincere at best. Russia indicated that Ukraine was an existential threat to it and Putin’s Domestic Approval Rating Reaches Highest Level In Five Years seems to indicate that people support that idea. US picking Ukraine as a hill to die on just seems more personal than a logical decision, and trying to sell it as if Ukraine protecting all of Europe is just silly with Article 5 and most of Europe being in NATO. Now to still try and make it work US need to continue to escalate the conflict (first Javelin will be a game changer, MANPADS, then Switchblades, then much needed M777 howitzers, now even more desperately needed HIMARS, next will be ) and as you previously noted everything comes at a cost. Where does that leave Russia, either sit back and do nothing or since US is setting a precedent that selling long range missiles is now acceptable practice and doesn't make you a party to a conflict, Russia can starts selling latest anti-air and anti-ship missiles to Iran, how much do you think it'd take for them to close the straight of Hormuz? I'm sure Panam/Egypt can use cheap oil and some good anti-ship weapons and would like to get back control over Suez and Panama canals. Or how about a huge multi billion contract to supply hypersonic weapons to China? Will the world be better off with that? Probably not, will it help if media can easily blame the big Russian bear for it? Unlikely. They keep pushing the line and the whole world is forced to be a spectator in this new race to annihilation over Ukraine/Belarus/Chechnya/whatever... Easiest way to start another war, just offer Taiwan to join NATO sit back and watch the "fireworks" fly. (Don't those poor Taiwanese deserve the freedom cookies and guarantees of freedom??)
Do you know what NATO stands for? North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Now, where is Taiwan located? Answer me. ... What is the support in Taiwan for joining continental China's government? Answer me. Where is Turkey, a NATO member located? An Italy, and Greece, ...? Turkey, Italy and Greece are connected to the Atlantic ocean through the mediterranean sea. Well Taiwan is also connected to the Atlantic ocean through some body of water don't get tied up on semantics, you need to see the forest behind the trees. Surely if US would deem in beneficial, adding the + to NATO + is the least of the problems. Countries that support Russia (Africa, Middle East, South America and some asian countries) have a low quality of life, have a low level of education which means their society is less educated, have a low-quality healthcare system, have a high level of corruption, have a high level of nepotism, have a high level of crime.
Soviet Union closed borders to its countries to make them live in swampland, to not let them see a high quality of life that was outside the USSR, once the borders were open, people started to travel and started to experience new life, they analyzed the difference in the quality of life between the USSR and West. Do you know where emigrants from post-soviet countries go to work? In western countries, they send money from western countries to their countries, they have increased their wealth, built new houses and increased their quality of life. That's why they are afraid of Russia, they don't want to go back, instead, they want to join the western family.
Have you considered why it is so? Why Venezuela, Lybia, Iran and Saudi Arabia are where they are? Or where those billions in aid and investments to needing countries around Russia come from? How Ukraine having higher corruption and lower GDP than Russia managed to totally revamp it's military in just 8yrs? Must be that ghost of Kyiv, or the soft power directing targeted fund exactly where they're needed. |
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The beauty of that is that there is no way Russia can do anything about it they just cannot compete on the soft power field.
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Only options for Russia is sit back and keep loosing countries in its sphere of influence and ultimately be torn apart, or radicalize become a dictatorship and switch the playing field to hard power.
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On regards to the RF becoming a dictatorship "in the future", I think that Moskva has sailed. I think you have depicted the problem, but there is a solution. It is difficult for the RF to assume that its influence is in decline. It is not just the US, it is that all the world is moving ahead and the RF is not keeping the pace. Among other things, if you have the GDP of Italy and spend 11% of it in military you need to take it from schools, doctor, civil research, ... It is a problem of mindset. This is some free consultancy for the RF: Your objective is competing in a world that is growing fast. If you are left behind your people and the nation as such will not do well, no matter how many wars you fight. - Develop the east. The territory is immense, the opportunities endless, you do not need to look further. I understand that as of now, there are political reasons why Moscow / St Petersburg would rather not do that, but long term it causes tensions. - Attract investment, both local and foreign. You cannot do without it. See next point on how to enable that, but, as a hint, you should be seen as a pacific partner and stable on that regards. - Put in place the enablers of growth: Rule of law, fair and speedy justice. This implies you need to get rid of the Cleptocrats and local despots, no way around that. - Keep your strengths: good universities, good research, ability to manage complex projects, ... - Use wisely the money that is coming from exporting natural resources. Try to build up the chain of value (e.g. do not export crude oil, but refined products). - Do not enter into unnecessary wars. Your territory is quite protected and other than that your real threat is terrorism (the real one, not the guys with the "tatoos"). - Do not spend 11% of your GDP in weapons - it is not needed. Life could be very different in the RF. Why would US let RF prosper, especially considering it's proximity to China? You know what powerful nations want right? That combination is too dangerous and needs to be stopped at its infancy. Much easier to kneecap RF, take Ukraine out of it's sphere of influence and then it'd be great if that could sustain itself by forcing RF to continue to sell its resources to EU through Ukraine (so UA gets paid transit fees). That's the benefit of having a pact, on top of that you can freeze RF assets and bankrupt it anytime you wish. (That is unless they decide to stop playing such game for some reason) |
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Hope it doesn't trigger guilt by association reflex |
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