If we can hold the $6k floor through to the end of January, then it’s on like Donkey Kong.
...and if we can't, a conservative short might be the ticket. You are vocalizing this "shortie thingie ma jiggie" a lot, recently. Getting me worried in a kind of maternal sense.  Don't worry mom, I always wear a condom. Even with a condom on, the ride is still fun. In more technical words: my condom long is still standing and suffering. I wish I could have closed it earlier, or nursed it to a lower entry. However, my other, hedging, opposing position (which I won't name explicitly to avoid a worried maternal figure) has granted me a nice, uh, money shot. And it still has some juice. I've just placed a few take profit stops on the way back up, and a fat asset one lower than here. I'm set up. I know the possible outcomes of this position. Peace of mind. No more compulsive price checking for a while. No thirst for gambling, though I might buy some moar physical coin if things go further south. (I did gamble a bit a couple weeks ago, against BCH, and I won. I could have squeezed more out of it, but I acted conservatively.) This (apart from the BCH gamble) has nothing to do with my hopes or beliefs. It's just that this system does work for me. |
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Our assets are sore from too much correlation.
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Have you seen Wall St.?
ATM, it's DJIA -2.68%, NASDAQ -3.46%.
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Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes.
When I said "probably well before the halvening", I was thinking along the following lines. Lately, volume on traditional exchanges has been ridiculously low. I think this might not be tightly connected with shark buyers going OTC; they have been doing things that way for a while already. The issue is small fish losing interest, patience, fiat money, or all of the above. As soon as all these things build back up, exchange prices must inevitably get a push. Any sign of a bull market will likely trigger a wave of small fish FOMO that will be impact prices for all to see, including MSM. Which will likely create some feedback loop and we'll be back to late 2017 scenarios. Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.
So, who calls him? Will you or should I?  I'd call Jamie Dimon, but I think he blocked my number due to my efforts to call out his BS in 2017.  I agree, retail interest in Bitcoin is very low right now, which gives the sharks plenty of room to swim without interference. But once we see some news that spikes enough people's interest, the domino effect will take place like in 2017: - Institutional investors quietly buying Bitcoin...
- Some announcement drives decent interest in buying Bitcoin
- Bitcoin price goes ^
- "Bitcoin Bull Run Again?" in news cycle
- People start FOMO and buy BTC
- Bitcoin price goes ^^
- More news cycles about Bitcoin "Bitcoin Goes on a Real Tear This Time, Will We See $1,000,000? Jamie Dimon Says Yes"
- More people FOMO buy
- Bitcoin price ^^^
- News cycles go wild, your grandma sees it and calls you to ask you to help her buy Bitcoin
- Institutional investors taking profit $$
- Bitcoin price ---
- People tell themselves this is consolidation before more ^^^
- Institutional investors finish taking profit $$$, start shorting
- Bitcoin price \/
- People say, "just people taking a little profit before hitting the REAL bull run"
- Bitcoin price \/\/
- People start getting a little worried about a repeat, not buying any more
- Institutional investors get busy shorting
- Bitcoin price \/\/\/
- People start reverse FOMO, selling all their holdings
- Bitcoin price \/\/\/\/\/
- Institional investors cashing in shorts... $$$$$$$
- Retail investors lose their shorts
- Bitcoin bottoms and cycle starts all over again
I am not sure why this narrrative - that institutional investors always make the right calls and own the markets while retail investors always get killed- is so prevalent in crypto psyche. It's not that they make the right calls. It's that when your fiat muscle is in the same order of magnitude as the market cap, you stand a good chance to make your call right if you plan carefully. Most of bitcoin richlist are retail investors. Meanwhile funds drove the ICO craze and got killed. But whatever excuse you want to make as to why you’re not wealthier, go right ahead if it makes you feel better.
Most are retail investors because they really made the right call at the right time, and staked a good chunk of their "real money" on "magic internet money". Now that the price went up significantly, correction notwithstanding, bitcoin is becoming more and more of a rich person game, as someone said a few pages back. And by the way, it's not an excuse for me. I made that call at the right time too, although my modest fiat reserves at that time don't make me a disgustingly rich guy today. Not yet. EDIT Only after posting this, I read leetlezee's reply to the same post by windjc. I think it summarizes my point of view effectively. Just for reference, here's the link. (snip)
The point is market manipulation on a large scale exists behind the scenes that is never covered by the news / brought to light.
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If we can hold the $6k floor through to the end of January, then it’s on like Donkey Kong.
...and if we can't, a conservative short might be the ticket. You are vocalizing this "shortie thingie ma jiggie" a lot, recently. Getting me worried in a kind of maternal sense. Don't worry mom, I always wear a condom. |
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If we can hold the $6k floor through to the end of January, then it’s on like Donkey Kong.
...and if we can't, a conservative short might be the ticket. |
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Here's an excerpt from the second link provided by mfort a few posts above. Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/When Will it Show on Bitcoin Price?
If institutional investors are acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin in the OTC market, it should have a noticeable impact on the cryptocurrency exchange market and the price movement of major digital asssets.
However, over the past two months, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated stability and struggled to initiate large movements on the upside.
As Circle, Coinbase, BitGo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and other major financial institutions that either have already launched crypto-focused custodian solutions or plan to offer crypto custody in the short-term begin to serve an increasing number of institutional investors in the months to come, investors expect the value of cryptocurrencies to increase accordingly.
The question in the subtitle has been left unanswered in the article, but my reasonable guess is "probably well before the halvening". Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes. When I said "probably well before the halvening", I was thinking along the following lines. Lately, volume on traditional exchanges has been ridiculously low. I think this might not be tightly connected with shark buyers going OTC; they have been doing things that way for a while already. The issue is small fish losing interest, patience, fiat money, or all of the above. As soon as all these things build back up, exchange prices must inevitably get a push. Any sign of a bull market will likely trigger a wave of small fish FOMO that will impact prices for all to see, including MSM. Which will likely create some feedback loop and we'll be back to late 2017 scenarios. Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.
So, who calls him? Will you or should I? |
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Any sound investment should plan to budget in such a way that prepares for the down...
Hedging with shorts?  You are likely razzing me, because you know that I don't really believe in playing around with margin. Just a little teasing on the surface. I actually think margin trading, used wisely, is a powerful tool. Used unwisely, it's a powerful tool as well, but as with any power tool, you risk your fingers or worse if you don't know your way around it... Even for very smart people, have troubles with the more basic strategies, so I would not recommend playing with margin/or leverage until after the person has developed a decently strong basic game, first. ... however, as with any power tool, there are a bunch of safety rules that can be followed to minimize the risk of injuries while still being able to exploit the power. Imagine cutting logs with a wood axe because that electric saw is just too dangerous. I actually find some form of leveraged trading to be an aid in restraining the inherent gambler inside. Make a plan, work out the best/worst/most likely outcome, play out. No room for clumsy impulse actions once you've set up an involved series of moves. I agree it's not for everyone, though. I don't like welders and their paraphernalia, for example, so I will gladly use the services of a pro whenever I'm in need. And, even in bitcoin, the historical degree of volatility might justify that leveraging and/or margin trading is NOT necessary because the returns can be incredibly stupendous with a mere basic accumulation game that does not involve such additional skills and strategies that may just end up greatly increasing the odds for folks to end up losing in what seems to be an otherwise highly probable winning game.
When the trend is down, if there are no fiat reserves to accumulate moar, there's not much to be done by the accumulate-and-hodl investor. That strategy only pays out in bull markets. This might tickle the inner gambler to "poke his stash with a stick", so to say, which is a dangerous game. On the other hand, a plan with pre-calculated possible gains and losses is a way to grow one's stash even in bear markets, with a limited penalty in case of failure. In the end, and I think we agree on this, it's all about finding a system that works for oneself. |
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Here's an excerpt from the second link provided by mfort a few posts above. Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/When Will it Show on Bitcoin Price?
If institutional investors are acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin in the OTC market, it should have a noticeable impact on the cryptocurrency exchange market and the price movement of major digital asssets.
However, over the past two months, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated stability and struggled to initiate large movements on the upside.
As Circle, Coinbase, BitGo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and other major financial institutions that either have already launched crypto-focused custodian solutions or plan to offer crypto custody in the short-term begin to serve an increasing number of institutional investors in the months to come, investors expect the value of cryptocurrencies to increase accordingly.
The question in the subtitle has been left unanswered in the article, but my reasonable guess is "probably well before the halvening". |
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Indeed. 1. First rule of Institutional Bitcoin: you don't talk about Institutional Bitcoin.
Or publicly keep a skeptical attitude about fancy internet money, or even spread FUD. Until your bank is found red-handed. At that point, just keep a publicly skepical attitude. Or even disseminate some doubt-generating mud. 4. SHORT futures like mad and then SODL at the peak.
The only problem I have with this point is: do you close the mad shorts (buy btc) or do you take a loss? According to Cho, high net-worth individuals and institutions are using the OTC market to process trades that exceed $100,000, which based on the current price of Bitcoin at $6,500 is around 15.38 BTC.
(snip) An enlightening read. IMO your analysis is spot on, as it often happens. |
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Recently, I've noticed a small but perhaps significant sentiment change. Bitmex bitcoin futures are now priced above the swap (which mimics and tracks spot index price). They've been under it for over a month up to approximately last Friday. Bullish (short term and mildly).
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I have considerable difficulties understanding any kind of investment strategy that buys while an asset is exploding 2x, 5x, 8x, 10x or greater, and then stops buying when that asset is lowering in price.
The strategy you describe sounds unwise indeed. On the other hand, even if someone's bullish on a particular asset, it does make sense to wait for uptrend confirmation before buying a substantial chunk. In the case of bitcoin, which can explode 10x in short time spans, it's not unreasonable to wait for 2x before feeling confident it's a bull run, even for a medium-long term investor. On the third hand (or is it one foot?), timing the market reliably is, as we know, impossible. Any sound investment should plan to budget in such a way that prepares for the down...
Hedging with shorts? |
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Wow... thanks guys. I can feel the love!! <3 <3 <3  Late for the merit party. Pity. Could use a few  You take my merit you bastard. Take it. Never understood the merit system. Bunch of sods circle jerking each other for fake internet points on who the best circle jerker is. More or less. It's a status thing, small penis and stuff, just while I get my lambo. Thanks at any rate  |
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Late for the merit party. Pity. Could use a few |
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At least a proper coin is leading the gainers section, soma (Straight Out of My Ass, copyrighted by Brewmaster). Brew, did you get naughty and made your own (shit)coin?
How dare he...!   |
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We only got a pumpelet for now. Just to scratch the surface of boring.
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BitMex right now...  Don't know why, this reminds me of the Mayor. |
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Here comes the pump
here comes the pump
it's allright
Little darling, it's been a long cold crypto winter
Little darling, it's been like years since 20k
Here comes the pump
here comes the pump
it's allright
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Seems awful quiet 'round here.
Who cancelled the weekend pumps, did Rosewater take them with him..? We should have frisked him on the way out.
Probably. I guess right now is where people gave up and nobody wants to buy in. This might go on for a while. I wonder if bitcoin will ever experience huge pumps like in the past? Those were the days.... At best now we will only have a linear increase. I feel more like: The more I learn about investing the more I realize how little I know. The pundits and talking heads don't know shit. They're just as clueless as the rest of us. The only difference is they're paid to pretend they know something. Half the time their predictions are accurate...
Only, I know my SOMA(tm) predictions are almost always wrong, almost all of the time. |
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Classic bitcoin right now, always worst case scenario happening, its like the coin is thinking, How can I know who truly loves me? How can I know who's only with me for money? so right now scenario is faking a bottom close to 6k to trap most of the speculators before this support becomes a huge resistance and we find bottom way down from here
Bitcoin is very jealous, he only wants the best and strongest and most loyal holders; bitcoin wants someone that truly understand him; bitcoin is testing your loyalty every time; if you like bitcoin you stay with him for life and you love him whatever he does even if he plunges!
BE LOYAL
BE LOVING
BE HERE FOR HIM
Him?? It's a SHE, plainly. |
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