As wave iv was a triangle (terminal move) and we have clearly five waves to the upside reaching a fair target for wave v, I am confident that a correction or a complete reversal is due at this point. A full retrace of wave v is likely. A break under 1650 confirms a complete reversal for some time. I cant yet say it is a complete reversal with confidence because what came before this impulse is not entirely clear, it could be the case that we just completed wave iii but I doubt it.

My leveraged position is often different to my position on that game because of the rule that I cannot post 2 trades in 8 hours, okcoin futures store capital in btc, and because I have a lower tolerance to hold a leveraged position. I can try pick the top playing without leverage but to short this beast I need to wait patiently for form and confirmation. Having said that Im not joking when I say I think its a good time to sell, I think a significant top has been hit at 300. Also, quite practically, I cant set limit orders on that game so Ill sell when Im awake  

well you would have done well to hold that sell order   if it wasn't on high leverage I would have had confidence in that.



Yes I think its the top now. Not as high as projected, but as you say its good form of completed 5 waves. I think its odd that we couldnt make it higher, but this is a larger flat correction (3-3-5), wave c may fail under wave c a. Would a triangle be possible? interesting idea, but the lower trend line from lows would make it very steep and very narrow.

SELL @$294.64

BUY @279.01

SELL @$274.41

It could go to parity for a fleeting moment, but it will not if thats not what the EU wants and it does not depend on just the fed. It is not desirabe to print money. If they dont need to devalue their currency to maintain desirable levels they wont. If the FED rises interest rates, the EU only needs to stop printing and deflationary forces will keep the EUR afloat.


There are people who may know.

Hold your Euros. you are late to the party to sell. Do you think the European Banks are undergoing QE because they think the value of the euro will fall if not for it? no, they are fighting large forces of deflation, you should be saving your Euros outside of the bank in deflation. Do you see that any 'crisis', for example, the Greek debt crisis in the euro zone that devalues the currency is welcomed by the banks because they will have to print less money to achieve the same desired stable rate. They have the Euro under control. No doubt you should also hold some bitcoin and gold for the case where the Euro totally collapses alongside the USD, but why worry about selling all your euros.

One might not understand how frustrating it is to ask for a percentage outcome of a one off binary event. Not only difficult and impossible to falsify, but having spoon fed the direction, amplitude, risk management and probability, I am assuming a position of responsibility. That's not the idea of the thread which is why I agree with Ryan.

Well there are only 2 reasons why I think there is a chance for a bow out fifth, keeping in mind its not something id usually expect ever. The one is that i and iii are close in size, the other is that the fair target for the larger picture is 320-350.

The rally to 3000 yuan was a blowout fifth. we are in the same position here.


meh, idk. 40%

The five wave climb seems weaker than expected at this point but the form is still good. As wave i and iii tend toward equality there is a chance of a blowout fifth wave towards 2000-2200 yuan over the coming 72 hrs.

In terms of EW, necessary. but anything is possible.

There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

yearly bottom? probably not

It was fate that he would appear right on this call. He would have said the same bs if asked about it at the price of $2, but he is just a pop star so no wonder he was asked and gave his thoughts on it at the peak of a mania driven bubble.

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Active   HODLING BTC

We call news a catalyst in EW analysis. The market cannot make a substantial move unless it is prepared to move, in other words if the crowd is positioned to move. If it were not for the news right now the climb would not be as steep, but it probably would be climbing regardless. News or no, the fundamentals remain the same.

This seems to be catalysed by news https://archive.today/G5R1Z#selection-1208.0-1320.3

No, I say we are going up period. DanV changed his mind, unknown why to me, and said we are going down, why did I feel the need to post this? for the protection of traders who are following my analysis. You have to be prepared for both ways. Madmat, not all trades are created equal, and I sense sarcasm in what you say, but you are actually right in a sense that EW provides us the best defined expectations for a trade. EW traders may be supple and emotionally detached because yes, we do know exactly when we are wrong. EW is what it is.

A we are evidently in a corrective wave to the overall downtrend I think its important to give a balanced perspective within the ambiguous wandering abc's within B waves. This is a chart by the analyst DanV and it is valid. Ideally for trading we want as little ambiguity as possible. Good to keep in mind.