@OP Great to see a tool that makes it easier to check your bets. In my opinion, as a crypto community, we should promote cryptographic security in casinos (provaibly fair mechanism) more and even expect/force/ casinos to use them by boycotting casinos that do not comply. Without this mechanism, we are condemned to the mercy of the casino, whether it lets us win this time or not. Very nice work, but why limiting this tool only to Bustabit website?
There are many other casinos available and many of them are claiming to have provably fair games.
Maybe you can fork the code and make it work for other casinos.
The provaibly fair mechanism differs slightly in different casinos, so a tool would have to be created for each casino separately. |
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Myślę, że kilka legendarnych cytatów też się tu przyda  Jesse Livermora - "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time." Warren Buffett - "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." George Soros - "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." Sir John Templeton - "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'" |
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Moim zdaniem był to bardziej zaplanowany atak na wybicie longów niż akcja by kupić BTC taniej. Pewnie autor tego zagrania jest już poza rynkiem z ogromnym zyskiem.
Kim jest Matrixport, autor "analizy"?. Ja nie wiem. Nie ma ich nawet na wikipedii. Więc randomowy nieznany portal robi analizę, w której jako argument podaje "bo gensler nie lubi krypto" wypuszcza artykuł i bitcoin się wali 10%? I to normalne? Za tym nie mógł stać nikt poważny. Ktoś postawił 100 mln na lewarze na short, zawalił kurs, opłacił artykuł za 10 000$ i zamknął pozycję na 20 mln zysku. Tymczasem nic się nie zmieniło. Rynek pewnie pójdzie w swoim kierunku. Czekamy dalej na etf.
Wniosek dodatkowy. Jak taki news daje spadek 10%, to znaczy, że kurs jest mocno rozgrzany. Być może to test "przegrzania" wykonany przez grubasa, by wiedzieć jakim tempem wywalać jak już przyjdzie na to pora.
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This is what caused the recent price that plummeted. We do not know which one would be true, but SEC was showing signs that Spot ETF for bitcoin would be approved until the recent analysts speculating what could make the price of bitcoin to decrease. People should know that as analysts can be right, they can also be wrong.
What will happen then? Probably all these companies (blackock, fidelity) will apply again and get another "final date", probably in June, and again the market will have something to grow on for the next 5 months Moreover, the SEC, by rejecting ETF, would violate the court's ruling wouldn't it? |
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I see some slot providers are offering slot games with "enhanced RTP" or even a option to increase the bet amount to increase the chances of you hitting the FREE spin feature.
Do you actually believe that this is a real feature and that it does give you a higher chance to win? I think it might be real, but it is insignificantly higher than your normal RTP. ( 0.5% to 1% better )
Have you played these games and have you seen any difference in your win percentage?
I don't trust anything the casino promises unless it is supported by a 'provably fair' mechanism and only after checking it on several examples. If there is no evidence that some games have overclocked RTP, and it is not experimentally verifiable, then there is no reason for me to trust that the casino is so good-natured that it will keep its promise, especially when everyone is lying. All you have to do is look at the supplement or food market to see that for corporations, profit optimization is more important than the truth or even the customer's health. |
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myślę że podlinkujemy ten wątek z głosowaniem, jako dowód na wybór tymczasowego moderatora
Przygotowałem ankietę pod widzów spoza polskiej sekcji - zablokowałem już dalsze głosowanie i upubliczniłem wyniki ankiety. Mam nadzieję, że działa. tytuł pewnie "Moderator application for Polish local board"
Będzie dobrze. i co w nim napisać?
Kluczowe jest chyba to, że naszego moda nie ma już prawie od 10 miesięcy i to, że zostałeś wytypowany jednogłośnie przez polską społeczność na jego zastępstwo. Powinno wystarczyć. |
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Ktoś się orientuje czy SEC ma obowiązek ogłosić taką decyzję publicznie, czy mogą oni dać znać aplikantom "po cichu". Jeżeli to drugie, to może już zdążyli zatwierdzić tylko jeszcze o tym nie wiemy, a poinformowana grupa zaczęła skupować i podbiła cenę do $45k.
Na moje oko, to werdykt był znany od miesięcy. Nie ma opcji, by 2 największe fundusze na świecie (blackrock, fidelity), pewnie te mniejsze też, nie były dobrymi ziomeczkami z ludźmi z SECu zwłaszcza, jak się weźmie pod uwagę, że chłopaki z blackrock mogą mieć na przykład 100 mln $ fundusz "ziomerski" na imprezy zacieśniające więzy. Jak jeszcze dodasz do tego wiedzę o tym jak skorumpowany jest SEC (np. atak na busd a nie na usdc) i jak front runują wszystkie newsy bezkarnie to odpowiedź będzie oczywista - pewnie od tygodni/miesięcy jest wszystko jasne i pewnie rajd od 25k do 45k zawdzięczamy insiderom. Dlatego od kilku tygodni piszę o realizacji zysków w pierwszym dniu handlu.  https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1742207287966777673/photo/1Przypomnę tylko o sławnym eksperymencie Warrena Buffeta - Buffett's Bet with the Hedge Funds z którego wynika, że nawet najlepsze fundusze i eksperci w inwestowaniu mają problem z przegonieniem SP500. Insiderzy takiego problemu nie mają. Jeżeli faktycznie każda transakcja będzie przenoszona na blockchain przez Coinbase to zmienia moje podejście do ETFów
Może się źle wyraziłem. Chodziło mi, że transakcje na ETF będą przenoszone na rynek a nie na blockchain. Chodzi o to, że jak kupisz 10 BTC w formie ETFa, to blackrock w twoim imieniu kupi 10 BTC na coinbase po to, by dla ciebie nie być kontrahentem (stroną przeciwną twojej transakcji), a tylko pośrednikiem od którego można odciąć prowizje bez ryzyka. Bez tego, blackrock notowałby straty za każdym razem jak bitcoin rośnie a to dla nich niepotrzebne ryzyko. Czy blackrock będzie trzymał BTC na coinbase, czy wypłacał na portfel tego nie wiem. |
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I agree that the inflation or should I say the volatility rate of bitcoin is reducing drastically as time moves on, and yes the price of bitcoin increasing will not be as high in percentage as the previous raise. But my point is each halving has been the driving tool for bitcoin to increase in price although I don’t see the forthcoming bull to increase bitcoin price more than 3x from the current ATH.
[...]
Again 3 times of a thing happening out of many doesn’t mean it will be like that, but three is no stats to prove what will happen in future rather we hold on to the reality that each halving is what drives bull run.
loose correlation does not imply causation. It's not like the price starts rising 1 day after halving because the fundamentals have changed. The price pumps hundreds of days before the halving, without any fundamental reason, and accelerates after the halving. What's more, there is also a thesis (although this is a less popular approach) describes bitcoin's growth cycles after the presidential elections (which, surprise, also happen every 4 years).  Every 4 Years a President Is Elected and Bitcoin MoonsAt the moment, a loose correlation is confirmed, and the decreasing influence of the halving fundamentals makes me bealive that sooner or later Wall Street whales will play against it by reversing halving cycles (dump after halving). 93% of bitcoins have already been mined. The remaining 7% have no real power to pump the rest. In my opinion, ETF, interest rates in the USA, the risk of conflict in Taiwan, the course of the war in Ukraine, the Israeli conflict and even the situation in Guyana have a greater impact on the bitcoin price. |
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I might have to disagree with some points like halving doesn’t increases demand, the bitcoin halving signifies the reduction of newly mined bitcoin which coherently increases the scarcity of the coin and that increases the demand of it
Wrong. Every day the supply of bitcoin increases and this reduces its scarcity because scarcity means shortage low supply compared to demand, not "decreased inflation". Bitcoin's distribution curve has been known since 2009. halving does not change how bitcoin is perceived and how rare it is today. Also the bitcoin halving has actually been the bedrock of every start to bull run and the last three halvings have actually proved this to be true, with both bitcoin and other alticoins increasing in price after the halving period.
each halving was different and had a different fundamental impact on the price. The first one reduced inflation from 25% to 12% (a huge change). Another one reduced inflation from 8% to 4% (a big change), another from 3.8% to 1.8% (a small change). Current from 1.7% to about 0.8% (virtually unchanged). Currently, 93% of the supply has been minted. That 7% will take another 100 years. You really think that the mere fact of how the last 7% will be spent is strong enough to pump 93% of the already minted by hundreds/thousands of percent? In my opinion, this is the last halving cycle ahead of us, if we see it at all. Moreover, the mere fact of correlation (not to be confused with causation), which was repeated 3 times, does not prove anything. I recommend playing a coin toss. It is not at all uncommon for the coin to come up heads/tails 3 times in a row. this does not mean that the coin will fall the same way again and again. |
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Looks like 1 long year has passed, and we said goodbye to 2023 and entered the new year 2024. We are only waiting for 2024 for Bitcoin because this year is going to be one of the best year for Bitcoin. Where the block reward of Bitcoin will decrease from BTC6.25 to BTC3.125 and at that time we will see more demand for Bitcoin, and expect a gradual change in the Bitcoin market.
As Bitcoin halving is only 112 days away, we are looking forward to that time. All bitcoin investors only wait for bitcoin bull season. And the bull season usually starts after the halving as we know it, so I think there is a golden opportunity right now to just hodl Bitcoin.
All bitcoiners get ready to hodl your BTC success is waiting for you ahead.
Halving reduce monetary inflation. Nothing more, nothing less. It definitely does not increase demand nor is it a magical price boosting event that everyone is waiting for and only thinking about. I'll tell you more. From a fundamental point of view, halving has a negligible impact on price. The change in inflation from 1.5% to 0.8% is imperceptible, especially compared to the first halving which reduced inflation from 25% to 12%. |
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while I believe that in games that are only about luck (e.g. dice, roulette) there are no winners in the long run. The more you play, the closer your result is to the statistics, and the casino builds its games so that the statistical output is on its side. Opposite example is poker, which, in addition to luck, is also based on skill, and here there may be players who win in the long run, because here you play against other players, not against the casino, and statistically the chances are equal, so skill determines in the long run. It's similar with betting on sports. Here you also play against other bettors and the casino only deducts the fee. So if you know sports better than others, it is possible to win in the long run, and I do not believe that in sportsbetting, your winnings are bad for casino and they will block you, because you are beating against others and not the casino.
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I woud only choose to bet on either win or draw, not putting win+draw as the odds is certainly against us.
I wonder how you will defend yourself if I ask you on what basis you claim that "odds is certainly against us". What specific mechanism determines this, because it seems to me that this is a far-fetched statement based solely on yours own experience (and therefore based on a low, non-representational trial)? If you're playing for fun, bet anything. If you are playing to win, I would carefully calculate how much the draw is valued and how possible it is (compare risk/reward ratio, not only rewards). |
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The bookies are so designed that any option you chose will have a corresponding odd which increases as the risk increases and vice versa.
The payout in sports betting does not depend on the actual probability of a given team winning/losing/drawing, but on how other players bet. Therefore, it is possible that the draw is underestimated and therefore gives disproportionate returns in relation to the risk, because, as I note in this thread, most people only bet on winning/losing because you can win more. What I mean is that adding to the DRAW bet may actually reduce your payout by, for example, 20%, but it increases the probability of winning by 50%. |
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ETFy, ETFY, ETFy - ehh te ETFy
zobaczymy co z tego wyjdzie, moim zdaniem to tylko hype
nie znam szczegółów, nie znam się na tym, wydaje mi sie na chłopski rozum, że jeżeli te ETFy nie są fizycznie związane z kryptowalutami i handel nimi nie daje większej ilości transakcji na blockchainie, więcej opłat dla górników czy stakujących walidatorów, zdrowego kupowania/sprzedawania na giełdach...
nie wpłynie to na zmianę kursów tak drastycznie jak spodziewają się tego wszyscy zainteresowani, czyli ulica
a jak jestem w błędzie to niech mnie ktoś poprawi proszę
Jest moim zdaniem sporo przehypowane, ale nie jest też tak, że nie ma wpływu na cenę. Ma wpływ i to w każdej możliwej perspektywie czasowej. W krótkim terminie moim zdaniem przejadą się ci, co tworzą teraz wyliczenia ile to kapitału czeka na zatwierdzenie by móc się wlać do bitcoina i mają już w wyobraźni jak to cena pierwszego dnia leci na 100 000$ a w ciagu tygodnia na 1 mln $, bo przecież nie można zmieścić tylu miliardów ile ma blackrock w bitcoina o wartości 42 000$. Moim zdaniem podaż od realizujacych zyski będzie ogromna, a nahypowana ulica sprzeda za 3 miesiące na dołku. W średnim terminie (rok) zobaczymy pewnie zwiększony popyt, bo ETFy są fizycznie związane z krypto i są nowym rynkiem dla bitcoina. Transakcje na ETFie będą fizycznie przenoszone na rynek bitcoina za pośrednictwem coinbase. W długim terminie (5 lat) obawiam się, że zadziała to na minus, bo właśnie zmniejszy ruch na blockchainie, obniży opłaty dla minerów a co za tym idzie bezpieczeństwo sieci i oddzieli ekspozycję na bitcoina od używania bitcoina. |
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5 dni minęło i wydaje mi się, że nie ma co dłużej czekać, a zwłaszcza biorąc pod uwagę obecny wynik. Chciałbym więc ogłosić, że jednogłośnie, na nowego moderatora, wybrany został wwzsocki. Kolejny krok to załóżenie wątku w dziale meta, który powinieneś chyba założyć osobiście. Daj nam potem tutaj link, to wpadniemy i cię poprzemy. Powodzenia |
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The problem is that these countries are not consistent with each other. India, for example, has already expressed its unwillingness to create a common currency with BRICS. Russia is at war and it is not a good time to create a strong, trustworthy currency when you need to have a flexible currency that is easy to print when necessary.
Additionally, the countries included in the list have poor respect for civil liberties and property rights, so they are not places where capital from individual investors will willingly flow.
If they do not base their currency on anything (fiat money), how will they differ from the euro and the dollar apart from the fact that they are issued by a less trusted entity (at least for a Western investor)? And if they base their currency on gold, how can we be sure that they will keep the peg regardless of economic conditions and possible future conflicts. How can you be sure that they will not freeze your funds as a US citizen or ally on the day of the outbreak of the war in Taiwan?
Bitcoin is something else. It seems to me that the creation of the brics currency, if created, will not affect the bitcoin price, because I cannot imagine a holder of bitcoin (easy to transfer, scarse, soud, non-inflationable, independent currency) giving it up for the brics currency.
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Yep. Thats pretty much my call for the next month. The etf will be accepted within 13 days. Until then, we can still sit in pattern. After acceptance, we will see a rally and the formation breaking out. The rally will end on the first day of ETF trading, which will probably be a few days later, which will be a period of profit-taking for all those who front-run of this event.
Which, from a technical point of view, will be a bounce from what you described as the "weekly supply zone", or a fake breakout of this zone only to immediately come back and start a longer correction.
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Evolution AB is a $250 billion company. I doubt that they restrict users after winning 200-1000$ multiple times. Loss of reputation, customer and black marketing is a much greater loss for them. It doesn't look like the order of magnitude they're operating on. There are a few zeros missing here. In my opinion, these are browser problems. Some bad cookies got stuck somewhere or something like that. Try different browsers, clear cookies, etc. Finally, you can try VPN and a new account to rule out a possible ban. That's the part that weirded me out the most, different casinos with the same games and all of them don't work for you. My only deduction from this is that there's a possibility that the casinos that OP's playing at is probably connected or something and that OP's using the same name for those casinos so they're easily tracked and banned from playing blackjack.
there are several game providers. Casinos often use them without changing anything, just sticking their logo on them. |
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Very interesting thread. It can show what part of us has an addiction problem and what part of us plays for fun.
As for me, I play very rarely and with a clear attitude - to have fun and, for the feeling you described as, "we feel alive". So that's exactly the mindset I approach the game with, so in my case I either end up feeling "enjoyed" when I had fun but lost, or "Satisfied" when I had fun and won.
If you feel depressed or worse after a night in casiono ... I think you should take a longer break if not quite entirely.
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