What do you think about the rage of Oliver? Have you felt the same way and do you think it's recoverable in the upcoming timeline?
Well ... "Bitcoin has died 473 times" according to this counter. So what are we talking about? crypto is already dead no one is left here ... or maybe its another FUD article from pseudo experts? UST collapse - $18B Terra marketcap - $40B (mostly fake) Celsius - $25B FTX - $8B Together $91B from $3T so its 3% AT BEST. Yea. crypto will never recover after this "huge" loss. It is definitely better to keep Fiats, which in 2021 increased supply by 20% y/y just to save the collapsing system. it is better to invest in banks, as exemplified by SVB, SB, CS, SI, FRC, whose capitalization fell by over 90% in a few days... if Mr. John Oliver would make some effort, he would know that crypto did not come out of such drops to new ATH and not from such problems (MT GOX as an example) |
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Może mi ktoś wytłumaczyć "na chłopski rozum" dlaczego właściwie niski wolumen ma znaczenie? Czy to po prostu obserwacja, że przy niskim wolumenie cena ma tendencję do spadania w dół, czy może jest tu jakiś logiczny mechanizm?
Wolumen mówi o sumarycznej wartości transakcji, do jakich doszło. Jeśli wybicie następuje przy dużym wolumenie, to oznacza, że następuje ono przy aktywnym "sprzeciwie" sporej części rynku, a mimo to cena idzie do góry. Pokazuje to siłę rynku i siłę bieżącego ruchu cenowego. Niski/malejący wolumen działa odwrotnie. Pokazuje, że część rynku po prostu podniosła ręce i czeka, aż coś się wyklaruje, a nie panicznie odwraca pozycję. Pokazuje, że formacja, którą obserwujesz, nie jest tak istotna dla rynku, jak myślałeś lub wybicie nastąpiło w momencie braku aktywności dużych graczy (weekend, ameryka śpi itp). Zaraz wrócą do handlu i razem z nimi cena. Może to też świadczyć o tym, że kupujących zaczyna brakować, a sprzedający jeszcze nie zaczęli dumpowania, bo czekają na jednoznaczny sygnał. Można się rozpisywać nad różnymi wariantami w nieskończoność. Jest to jednak tylko jeden z wskaźników i jak to jest w analizie technicznej, nie daje żadnych gwarancji, a tylko statystyczną przewagę. Choć przy ilości manipulacji na wolumenie ta statystyczna przewaga może nie być aż tak duża. |
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BTC charts you will get, but absolutely it doesn't mean anything. There are no guarantees that the real chart will be just like that. You are not so naive as to believe the charts from Google, right? Even more so, to use this information for investment.  OP asked question about how previous halvings impacted the BTC price. I have delivered the answer in a form of a chart found on google. However, in the last sentence of my post i wrote that halving is not a major force that moves prices, and I even get into discussion with other bitcointalk members describing how irrelevant 4th halving is from a fundamental point of view. But you certainly know that, because you sure didn't do it so that you read only the first post, and after seeing the first picture, you started writing anything just to make another post to meet signature requirements? "you are not so naive [...], right?" |
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I was a bit puzzled about which figures you used for "coins already in circulation" for the first rate of 25%. I'd assume we'd need to use the number at the beginning (not the end) of the period, which, for the first period was zero, so can't really calculate that.
"first halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12%" So when the first halving happened, it was after 4 years of mining 50 btc per block. Without halving, next year's inflation would be 25%, with halving - 12%. So halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12%. So i think i was correct with taking the end of the period. |
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Out of curiosity - how did you calculate these inflation rates for Bitcoin?
And shouldn't we also be looking at the actual fiat price rather than just looking at percentages? i.e. for 50 to 25btc halving, if the price was at $100, - that's $2,500 per block less needed to keep the price at the current level. For 6.25 to 3.125 halving (with $30k per bitcoin), that's $93,750. Depending on the volume and number of bitcoins available for sale, this could have a bigger impact than the percentage figure alone indicates.
Its a monetary inflation. So all i had to do is calculate the annual amount of new coins (block reward * 6 * 24 * 365) divided by the number of coins already in circulation in that day. We can try to use price in such estimates, but it won't give us any useful conclusions because price prediction is what people are aiming for (the result of the analyses). So we can't use price as substrate and product in one analysis. Or can we? And, as always, there are psychological factors as well, i.e. expectations of repeating cycles. People start buying because they expect other people will start buying.
As for fiat inflation, sadly, Bitcoin is yet to prove itself as a good hedge against that.
i agree. First halvings had hudge fundamential impact on price. Today's halving has little to zero fundamental impact on price but a huge psychological impact. Reading a lot of people's opinions, I see that many people are counting heavily on this halving and next cycle to begin. |
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$10 million is very little compared to the size of the entire network. currently the capitalization of ETH exceeds $200 billion, this makes this attack only 0.005% of the network. I doubt it's detectable as the accounts are old and the size of the attack is small. I don't think it's some major system bug threatening the entire network.
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I did some research on Bitcoin because I was interested in it, and I discovered that the key principles of Bitcoin are peer-to-peer, anonymity, pseudonymity, decentralization, and operating without a middleman to ensure that Bitcoiners can have financial freedom. However, despite knowing that Bitcoiners adhere to these tenets, why do some Bitcoiners act contrary to them? Why do they continue to support centralized exchanges, use them, and retain their Bitcoin there?
Funds on cex are held only by those who cannot safely store them themselves (lack of knowledge) and those who need funds for active trading (thanks to them, bitcoin has liquidity and, as such, price stability). Traders can't let go of CEXs, because dexes do not trade real bitcoin, but wrapped in a centralized way BTC on BSC or ETH (not to mention the performance differences). So trading on CEX is no different than trading on dex in terms of bitcoin and safety of funds. |
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But to be honest, BTC halving is a bit of an overrated signal to buy. Adoption and economic turmoil are having a much stronger impact on the price than 4th halving.
As I said there are much more things that impact price movements, the halving is only one of those. Wars, new electronic money, epidemic, market narrative, seasonal tendencies. Plan ahead. Don't gamble. Thats what I said in the last line of my post. Especially though first halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12%, second one from 9% to 4,5%, Third halving from 4% to 2%. 4th halving will reduce inflation from 1.5% to 0.7% which is a negligible change compared to the other side of the coin - inflation on Fiats, which ranges from 5-20% depending on the country, not to mention countries such as Argentina, where inflation exceeds 100% |
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Man. Its 1 min google search:  https://www.coinmama.com/blog/the-bitcoin-halving-a-history/Just type "BTC halvings on bitcoin chart" in google search, and you will find a lot of such charts. But to be honest, BTC halving is a bit of an overrated singal to buy. Adoption and economic turmoil are having a much stronger impact on the price than 4th halving. |
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Głośno myślałem i trochę głupoty mi wyszły (zmęczenie robi swoje). Ale w skrócie, nie bardzo ogarniam logiki emitowania udziałów i kupowania bitcoinów z przychodów z ich sprzedaży. Przykład:
Jeżeli jesteś jedynym udziałowcem spółki, która jedyne co robi to trzyma bitcoiny, załóżmy że spółka ma 9 akcji (100%) i trzyma 9 bitcoinów. Każda akcja jest warta tyle co 1 bitcoin, powiedzmy $30k.
Emitujesz dodatkowo 1 akcję i sprzedajesz na rynku za $30k, z przychodu kupujesz 1 bitcoina.
Spółka ma teraz 10 btc, ale ty masz teraz 90% (a nie 100%) więc wartość twoich udziałów to dalej 9btc (albo $270k) więc nic się dla ciebie nie zmieniło.
No chyba że sprzedajesz akcje po lepszej cenie niż wartość księgowa (np kupujący płaci extra za możliwość zainwestowania w btc).
Tak, nic sie nie zmienia. Dalej ty, jako właściciel firmy, posiadasz tyle samo bitcoinów. Gdzie więc zysk dla takiej firmy? Z dostarczania płynności/arbitrazu. W przeciwieństwie do zwykłego ETFa, którego pewnie obowiązują jakieś przepisy co do śledzenia ceny instrumentu bazowego, tak w przypadku MSTR nie i mogą robić co chcą. Czasem więc mogą sobie pozwolić na kilku procentowe premium, a czasem na kilku procentową zniżkę. To daje sporo władzy nad kursem, co dobry analityk pewnie będzie umiał wykorzystać. Kolejnym "zyskiem" jest fakt, że akcjonariusze partycypują w stratach firmy do wielkości swojej inwestycji. Więc jak przypadkiem Saylor "zgubi" bitcoiny, to nie ma żadnych zobowiązań wobec akcjonariuszy. A twoje poprzednie pytanie o zainteresowanie SECu. Ciężko powiedzieć. Na pewno jest to ciekawy temat. |
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In this post I will share with you one of the best trading strategies that I have created. This strategy works like a charm,
[...]
The winning rate of this strategy is very high
How long have you been testing the strategy. Whats the winning rate? For example, statistics for a rising wedge: "A rising wedge stock chart pattern has an 81% success rate on an upside breakout of an existing uptrend. When the price breaks through resistance, it has an average 38% price increase. Following a downtrend, the pattern is 51% successful, with an average price decrease of 9%." https://www.liberatedstocktrader.com/rising-wedge-pattern/This strategy works best in spot trading, but it will work in futures without any problem. However, I won't recommend anyone to do it in futures trading,
BTC spot price = BTC futures price. If your strategy predicts BTC price it should work for both in the same way. This strategy works only for those traders who believe in holding and can control their emotions. This is not a strategy for those who want to be rich overnight, it will work only if you can wait for certain signals. The strategy is based on some well known indicators, and it works in both bear and bull markets.
First of all follow these steps for setting up of indicators:
Step 1: Go to trading view and select the candles of 3 minutes.
do you think it is reasonable to enter a long term trade based on 3 minute candles? The pattern on which you trade is a maximum of 10 hours long. That's less than 1 daily candle. I will not get into a "hodl" transaction based on 1 unfinished daily candle. |
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Strong foundation sets the groundwork for future growth and development. So is the case with Oscar swap it is built on the most authentic trending and safe arbitrum blockchain. Over the past years crypto users have got frustrated due to high fee and speed issues.this problem leads to crytpo downfall as well but oscar has provided the solution of these problems. Oscar has differentiate itself from its competitors by adding more value to Dex to enhance customer satisfaction. Traders , liquidity providers and yieldfarms stakers are essential to maximize the profits. Oscar swap has team up with verified bridge to give unlimited access for investments to it's users. catogeries have been made in staking for the ease people. Token value has been increased with the addition of liquidity in it. If anybody wishes to make his or her one doller worth hunder dollar after just two decades so without any ado invest it at 500% APR with Oscarswap Farm
It looks like you are stuck in 2017. Its 2023. You can do an instant swap (max 3-6 sec) for less than a dollar using Pancake Swap and BSC network. 500% apy changes $100 into $1.5 million in just 6 years. Explain to me why anyone would pay such high interest rates when they might as well borrow from a bank? Where will the money come from to pay 1.5 million after 6 years to everyone who had $100? Who will pay that? Who will lose in this trade? I guess anyone who believes in this scam.. |
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Again, you can't come up with an accurate measurement by using the standard USD world measuring system. It's focused on the way the USD system does things.
Fair point. So show me a Russian style measuring system that shows that "everything is fine". The new system is rising, while the old one is failing. The failure might not be seen among the common people, yet, but it is the movement of things that are coming.
US is 500 year old. Russia is 1200, China more than 5000 years. It is not the west that is the failing old system. It is totalitarian, communist countries that are collapsing, and temporarily, due to local propaganda, their citizens think otherwise. The BRICS is trying to get the dollar out of international transactions, but people will choose the dollar anyway. Even if the BRICS bases its currency on gold. No one will trust that these reserves exist and will not be nationalized as soon as the need arises. No one wants to own currency associated with "terrorist sponsorship country". |
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Ktoś posiada wszystkie bitcoiny. W sensie każdy bitcoin ma swojego właściciela i każdy z nich chce zarobić. Nie ma znaczenia, czy to pojedyńczy duży podmiot czy tysiąc mniejszych.
Oczywiście że ma znaczenie. Ryzyko że tysiące indiwidualnych inwestorów nagle, w tym samym czasie, postanowi sprzedać jest od groma mniejsze niż że zrobi to pojedynczy podmiot. Więc wszystko się rozchodzi o to jak dużo btc taki pojedynczy inwestor posiada i jak taki dump może wpłynąć na rynek. Kilka razy w miesiącu, za każdym razem jak wchodzą dane o inflacji albo stopach rynek zmienia się w kasyno. Miota nim na lewo i prawo a po 2 dniach wszystko wraca do normy. Podejrzewam, ze sumaryczny dump inwestorów tego dnia przekracza posiadane przez sailora bitcoiny. Nie jest to 1 inwestor, racja, ale czy ma to znaczenie, skoro kierują się tym samym sygnałem sprzedaży? To samo jak pęka wsparcie. Na rynek wywalane są bitcoiny wszystkich, którzy na to wsparcie patrzyli, w 1 momencie, na wyścigi. To samo jak rusza kampania FUDu. Nagle, na wyścigi wszyscy się rzucają do sprzedawania. Czy dla rynku to jest różnica, czy sprzedaje MSTR (reakcja), bo nie udało mu sie zrolować długu i musi zamknąć pozycję (przyczyna), czy dumpuje 10 000 inwestorów (reakcja), bo mass media zaczęły atak FUD na binance (przyczyna). O ile dobrze rozumiem koncept zakupów bitcoina z nowo emitowanych akcji, to z punktu widzenia obecnych inwestorów i zakładając że cena rynkowa akcji skorelowana jest z cena Bitcoina - to miałoby to sens tylko wtedy kiedy cena akcji/bitcoina stoją wyżej od ceny za która my kupiliśmy akcje MSTR. Czyli byłoby to ekwiwalentem sprzedawania Bitcoina na górce.
Dokupowanie bitcoina z emisji akcji kiedy bitcoin jest w dołku, wiązałoby się ze stratą dla obecnych inwestorów.
nie rozumiem |
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Name a measuring method which proves that "Russia is doing just fine".
It's called BRICS. You can ask the Russians how the measurement works. Brazil is the first letter of BRICS, and Russia is the second letter. Figure it out. Ooh Lula La! Brazil Wants To Dedollarize Too yep. only 16% ... including BRICS/nonBRICS countries trades settled in dollars. So non dollar trades are most likely below 10%. Nothing to be worry about so far. Countries can try to dedollarize, but people will run to the dollar either way. Nobody wants Russian or Chinese currency. Countries where you can go to jail for saying something that goes against local propaganda. The fact, that russia is part of BRICS (so far) is not a "measuring method" which proves that "Russia is doing just fine". "Figure it out." |
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That is just the way it goes. 99% of projects are just one shot. Pump and dump. The end of the bull market ends growth, marketing and development. Only 1% will survive to the next bull market and break a new high, the rest is slowly falling to zero.
Similarly to how NEO, NEM, EOS, LISK, and XLM were popular during the 2017 bull run (all dead now and going to 0), Near, Celo, SOL, and DOT were popular during the 2021 bull run. Maybe one of them will survive, maybe not.
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High apy is not enerything. You must always ask yourself, "Where will the money come from?" If high apy is achieved via high inflation on coin (increase in circulating supply) and there is no real use-case and real user-base ... its not going to be a good investment.
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Validated users decreased by more than 6% and we still don't see any interest in new users coming to test this IDENA project, slowly people have left this project both farmers and other users, even though many new things have been developed after yesterday's mainnet , it seems that the Devs have to start approaching all the IDENA community again, for example holding an AMA on telegram as before only to hear input from the community in order to create cohesiveness to bring IDENA to be known more out there. I really see a lot of people who have left this project, but I still believe that IDENA will continue to survive in the competition.
The problem is that everything costs money. Such an AMA on a large group on telegram is $ 500-1000, it is not small for a project with a capitalization of $ 1.5 million. A good, high-profile marketing campaign will suck all the capital out of the project very quickly, unless it turns out to be a success, but it's a one-way game. |
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You make one major mistake in your thinking. Your view is from a US/Nato point rather than from the Russian point of view.
"The first casualty of War is Truth" - Its possible that I don't have full knowledge because both sides of the conflict are trying to manipulate the data to their advantage. No doubt about that. Russia is doing just fine, but her success can't be measured by US/Nato methods of measuring.
Name a measuring method which proves that "Russia is doing just fine". |
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I don't want coins above $100, so that it will be possible to run on good profits if the investment works.
My topic from 2018 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3987913.msg37787537#msg37787537. A lot has changed in those 5 years. The world looks completely different now but one thing seems constant ... people still make the same mistake when assessing the growth potential of altcoins. The price doesn't matter. Capitalization matters. Low capitalization projects have the potential for growth, not tokens with low price. But again, low capitalization projects usually do not have a finished product, they do not have a user base, they often have only an outline of the business, and this makes them unsuitable for DCA, because the value is inestimable, at any time the competition can provide a better product, or the same product but faster making your investment worthless. DCA bitcoin, gold, good stocks. Not low cap altcoins. if I didn't convince you and you still want to do DCA on tokens below $100 ... DCA satoshis. 1 sat = 0.0003 $ |
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