Time is a tough factor to predict, I dont think it will come necessarily before December, but it could.

The very short term count has slightly changed, see here. I do think we need a greater retrace but not necessarily 2260. We might see some incredible strength here.

What is happening here is critical and decisive. To me this is enough evidence to publish this chart. I am confident that we are heading to 3000 yuan +.

This is consistent with a wave III count and a double abc (abc-x-abc) count.  This price action is not consistent with a wave V count.  

Yes, our faithful triangle count does it again.

Podyx, Yes that is roughly the triangle I was referring to.

We are seeing a primary wave unfold and it has just topped out short term. expect a retrace from here over a few hours. This is very bullish, and likely the beginning of the next leg up. this could lead to the re test of 3000 yuan.






its 4.30 am  here you go though  bit late for the triangle however.

It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

In EW wave iv (and ii) is a corrective wave. a corrective wave is never impulsive (a correction is always a form of abc, a three wave move) often with highly overlapping internal fractals. This is why you are having trouble counting an impulse into wave iv of IV!

In the case where we retest 3000 yuan, that would be a double abc, where simply put an abc expands into a larger fractal of its self.

Hi SkyValeey,

Not sure what you mean, could you label a chart?

three things are possible: wave V ($270 retest) has begun from the high of 3000yuan, wave I has begun from 1950 yuan (wave II hit 2100 yuan), or wave B is completing a double zig zag to 3000 yuan +.

Nope, I am bullish. This no longer fits a third wave description, so it is probably an abc correction of sorts. we could test higher highs from here.

Yep, some days it sux!


Imo, at this rate, 50% chance of $270 retest.

Yeah, seems like we are bullish again. Ill have to wait for the market to reveal more.

Its very dangerous to chase a third wave. better to sell the bounce bravely. Ideally we want time enough to perceive weakness in the bounce before it runs away.  This can be tricky.

Good risk management. The last long was not quite confirmed with a break of 2330, so it wasnt such a confident set up at the time. But unfortunately these things happen. as this unfolds a good short might present its self.

With the recent breakdown a clearer count has become apparent that satisfies better than a shortened wave c. This abc correction is a scewed flat, meaning downward pressure is great at this point. if the impulse from 2450 was a primary wave, what could be about to follow could be a very bearish. I warn everyone to be very cautious in this area.


 

I was expecting a larger wave C but this one meets the requirements. We have a technical breakout, a further breakout above 2330 is enough to confirm we will be trending higher, possibly even to retest 3000. It also confirms that the alarming potential of wave V to unfold is at least postponed.

This is a good buy.

my reaction would be to change my mind, but I see no way in terms of EW analysis that we are going to go back up to 2450.

EDIT -  no way back to 2450 short term

An impulse wave never happens without a counterpart because impulses only occur in the direction of the trend. In this case the trend is down because we have an impulse down, this may be part of an ABC, or it may be a primary wave (very bearish).

Yes and if A=C then ~2170. That seems too low, so we might get a higher reaction first, but if we break 2290 I'd have to say that c has begun. It's looking weak.

If you are lucky, you might get offered an exit point up higher, but if you want my advice, dont hold onto this one all the way to the bottom. You should try get out.


This was a bad strategy from the start. you need to have bigger targets to initiate a trade. Unfortunately for you we do have a substantial target to the downside now which should follow the impulse.

No not at all, the wave down will be far more substantial. This could be just the beginning.

I am confident that we will see more down from a slightly higher point as illustrated.