I've held bitcoin for the last 9 years and here's my take.
Negative scenarios:
It goes down by ~$10k due to some FUD. -do nothing. I'll keep waiting, adding a few bucks from the sig campaign to my stash.
It goes down heavy to ~$25k. Chances for that are low but so were chances of a crash during the pandemic and we got that. I'll use some of my emergency fiat money to buy a bit, but that's going to be less than 10k worth since I'm low on fiat at the moment.

Neutral scenario:
We'll stay between $40k and 50k. Again I'll do nothing and keep waiting for a real bull market to start. At this price if I need to urgently buy something, I'll do it, but I won't spend more than 1% of my bitcoin.

Positive scenarios:
Bitcoin goes to the last ATH so around $70k. I'll sell a little bit to celebrate, like I always do when we hit an important level. Maybe I'll buy gifts for my family, maybe pay for holidays.
We reach a new high at or above $100k I'll spend 10% of my coins to buy the things I need and continue to hold the rest.

Some analysts say that most people who wanted to buy spot bitcoin already did it. Those who are interested in buying ETF are only those who wanted to buy but were legally denied the ability to do so, like some pension funds, but how many of them will decide to do it after that one fund lost money on FTX?
So, this is a valid point by you and total fear mongering by Hayes.


That's another problem. How many small retail investors who want to buy their first $1k worth of bitcoin will pay 5% of the transaction to move it to a private wallet? Not many, but Hayes doesn't care. He wants you to hold money on his exchange, so fees are in his favor.


He's worried that ETFs will beat him in both safety of storing coins with them and transaction fees, which can result in all whales and institutions who used to trade on exchanges moving out and that's going to decrease his revenue.

I became interested when looking for investment ideas in 2014 and bitcoin was going through a bear market so I thought that it could be a good time to try it. I was reading about mining, even cloud mining. I tried different altcoins and eventually learned that bitcoin is the safest bet.

My goal was to park my money in something that doesn't inflate like fiat money and I had no real time goal in mind. I knew that it's possible for me to wait for years if it comes to this as long as at the bare minimum I get 10% profit from this investment. In the first 3 years i got to something like 2000% and from that moment I knew that it's where I'll be keeping my money for decades.

It's not even a fair competition - online gambling is 10 times more addicting because of how and where you can gamble. When you had to use your PC to gamble it was comparable, but since you can gamble on your phone it's a game changer.

First of all you can hide better. You can gamble in private places like bathrooms, or act like you're going shopping and gamble in a store alley.
Then there's crypto gambling that allows you to hide your funds. You can literally get a signature campaign here or any other job that pays in crypto and use that money to gamble and nobody will know about it.

Then there's this thing that nobody can see you. Many gamblers don't want to do it in public in fear of being recognized by someone they know, or that people will see they lost and pity them. Online gambling is anonymous so it fixes all that.

I think most of them have some sort of security inside because they need someone to escort people who refuse to leave. They also have money inside, pretty much like a bank, or a currency exchange, so there have to be cameras and a hired security contractor that awaits their call. Many gambling joint owners have firearms, so the places are safe.

If you're asking about people leaving with money, unfortunately not much can be done about that apart from giving them advice to call someone and make sure they don't leave drunk and alone.
In most first world countries you won't get robbed right outside the bet shop, so whether they have security or not will not help you in any way. It's the same if you choose to go to a bar with the money and show it to someone. You can be sure they'll be waiting for you to leave drunk and rob you and security won't matter.

Bottom line, it's up to you to protect yourself.

Listen up, OP. Whatever you spend on bitcoin you can expect similar profit percentage wise. Say you invest $1k and bitcoin goes up 50% next year, you'll have 1,5k. Someone who invests 10k will have 15...
Buying a whole bitcoin doesn't change anything! There's no rule saying you have to own a full bitcoin to profit from it.

That said, if you feel like it's too expensive, so be it, but years ago bitcoin was still trading at over 20k, so there was no way for you to get a full bitcoin, even in 2021 or 2022. What does it matter if you could only get 0.1 years ago and now you can get 0.05? What matters is you turn your fiat money into something that doesn't value money every year like your cash.

I don't have a gambling problem and I don't have one that I can control for years by making up excuses like the one that I make enough profit for it to be OK-ish

The way I see it, my gambling is a habit, not an addiction and it's 100% under control. Sometimes I do it once a week, sometimes once a month, but there were times when I was abroad and busy with work so much that I haven't gambled for a month and felt completely fine. Also, I never jeopardize my finances. I only gamble small amounts of money, the money I'd otherwise spend on useless things like sweets, snacks, beer...

Buying $1 every week is going to be difficult with today's fees. Also, you won't make any money investing $1 or $5 a week.
Just do the math for $5: In a year you're going to have $240, $2400 in 10 years. Even if bitcoin goes up 10x in this period, all you're going to make is less than $24k, so in 10 years you'll save up enough for a used car.

What I'm trying to say here guys, invest life changing money. You probably won't get another opportunity like this. Don't DCA $5 because it's not going to make your life better.

For the same reason why exchanges have different companies operating in different jurisdictions. It's best if their local branch is operated by a local team, the way fast food restaurants do.
If anything goes wrong that team will be responsible and the main office will distance itself from the branch.
Also, not all games are legal in all states, so they sometimes create another branch to handle sports and another to do games popular in Asian casinos.


That's right and then they fall victim to a casino that used to scam people and changed its name, but it's still one and the same team. It's best to know who owns the place you send your money to. It can also be said about banks.

You can always ask, but there's no way to tell if they'll agree to it. Their last line of defense will always be "we won't give you a refund and if you don't like it go to court."

From a legal perspective, you can demand that from a casino that is known for demanding players to return money in the past. If they did that, obviously any judge will grant you a refund too.
Whether you can get a casino to comply depends on your situation, the amount of money lost on that exact machine, how much public you can make the case... I've seen people complain that they never got a promised bug bounty because the casino claimed someone had already reported it.

That's the important thing that people are forgetting. They think they'll hold their money in exchange or a casino because they don't want to pay $50 in fees, but when ETF gets approved and we go into a FOMO rally, your fees aren't going to drop. If anything, they're going to come up. Even if they ban ordinals, but we enter into a bull run, you can expect fees to drop by 10%, but they will still be high due to increasing demand.

If you don't want to pay a lot, either use LN, or convert bitcoin to another coin if you have the ability to do it cheap, but if you do that you'll probably miss the bull run. Either way the problem is not going to fix itself.

Oh yeah, I know what you're talking about OP. I used to have fun with my friends when we were in our 20s and we felt no pressure. All we did was study, play computer games, drink, go to parties...
Then we all went our separate ways and faced our problems. Some of us had kids, some had better jobs, while others had to look for work abroad. Some bought houses, some stayed with their parents. Fast forward 10 years and I agree that the poor became bitter. They shut down, they no longer enjoy life like those of us who had more money. They relive their younger years when they had no problems and did not care about money, but now they can't do without.

A great example of this is how girls used to look at us. None of us had cars, you could take a girl to a date and literally tell her that your father will drive you there and she didn't care, it was fine. Or you could just go for a walk and have fun. When you're in your 30s, you either have money, or you're going to feel rejected by society.

Of course they're trying to sexualize this, pretty much like many other gambling platforms and even sports. Just look at the ring girls in UFC, or how female fighters wear swimsuits and makeup at weigh-ins.
I live in Europe and this picture is so in your face that even if I didn't see the faces I'd know it has to be Asian. They often go over the top with their ads. In Europe you'd see maybe one or 2 girls advertising a casino, but in Asia there has to be 20

I'd prefer to play in a local casino, but it doesn't really matter since we don't have special local games here.

I'd say he isn't an addict and the point you guys are bringing up is what makes the difference. Where's the line between someone who does something because he likes it and an addict. IMO the lack of control over what they're doing is the key, the way you can just like eating and being obese and sick from it. If you see someone eating a lot but still looking good and being healthy, is that really an addiction?

So if Jordan can manage a normal life, healthy mindset, a family and still gamble, good for him. I wouldn't criticize anyone for doing it, but you can quickly go from this to ruin, so watch out.

It was never a thing. I don't know who had that concept of the cheapest network but this could never work. Bitcoin transaction was more expensive than a bank transfer 10 years ago.


What government? the government of the world?


There's no environmental impact. This whole narration is one big lie made to discredit bitcoin.

I believe that real estate is relatively safe because you can rent it out and always will be, unless there's war, or the property gets damaged somehow.

Let's say you have money in a bank. That's going to generate a loss even if the bank offers you decent interest because that interest will always be lower than inflation.
If you buy a house and rent it out it will pay for itself. Even if you offer it 50% below the market price it's still going to cover all the bills and generate a profit, even if the property doesn't appreciate in value. That said, every physical property will appreciate as long as it's not damaged or vandalized because the government prints money. As long as they print everything will be priced higher and we know they can't stop printing because that's what Keynes had taught them to do.

As a contradiction I saw an analysis that relies on a model that showed this as a pre-halving rally that's mostly over. It doesn't show where the rally will end because it could be 45k or 48k, but it showed sub 50k bitcoin for sure. Anyway, the author suggested that the indicator he relies upon (Puell Multiple) is peaking and each time it happened before the halving bitcoin corrected, like that time when it went to  14k in 2019 and back down to 4k.

I don't agree with him because this indicator relies on miners dumping when prices are high and this time I believe the coming ETF decision will influence the market so much that it will not correct a lot, but we shall see. Maybe we go to 50k and then correct to 44k?

He means that they're all hyping people about the upcoming ETF that will pump the price and in reality trying to short bitcoin because they know the SEC is going to deny.
This is one of those conspiracy theories like the one that bitcoin was made by the CIA to see how much people they can get to invest and then they'll turn it all off because there's a secret code or whatever that can make bitcoin stop working.
I don't really care because I held bitcoin at times where all the ETFs were being denied one by one and I still held and if they try to manipulate price somehow I'll stack sats the way I was stacking last year. You people don't realize that the real rug pull is them buying bitcoin now, ahead of the SEC verdict, while idiots are selling because they saw 40k first time in a year.

I collect bitcoin and for many other people this would be a waste of money.

So let them waste their money, I don't care. How's that different from someone paying a lot of money for a physical coin just because it has a rare flaw? I was surprised when I found out there's a large market for things that were made with flaws, like bank notes, coins, stamps, even money printing matrices and people are paying big if you find that special one in a million item.

What about collections? People pay a lot of money for things like post cards, legos, dolls, autographs... Sure these are physical items, but I wouldn't pay 100x the price of an item just because it was signed by someone.

I'm doing my mental workout with a beer in hand.
I live in a house that's basically in the forest, so there's no time for the workout you city boys do because you work out without even thinking about it.

Fun story of the day: Warren sent letters to bitcoin organizations saying that they're spending money to undermine her efforts in stopping the financing of Hamas. Poor woman, she's losing it.

Here you go. Don't thank me.