You know what impressed me the most? It is not that one game that Copenhagen has played so well in the Champions League group. Every bad team could have a great and lucky day. What impressed me so much about Copenhagen is that they played four great games in the group, could have tied the game against Bayern Munich, could have won the game away from home against Galatasaray, won the game against Manchester United and lost the other game with only one goal in England. This is what made me think twice about this team and how I underestimated them. I thought that this is going to be an easy group for Manchester United and Bayern Munich, but seriously this was a tough group for them and Manchester United will probably fail to pass it.

But this rather confirms my point. The problem is that Bayern Munich won the title in a season when they were weak and their dominance decreased. But if they win the title in bad seasons, what is the chance that someone else wins the title when Bayern Much has an average or good season? That shows how problematic a league can be when Bayern Munich can't even be contested in times of declining results.

But Leverkusen is really making some unexpected and impressive progress as a team. They finished the last season on rank 6 with no single win in the last 5 games. I think nobody would see this coming. If they can surprise the Bundesliga, it is not absurd to think they can do the same in the Europa League.

Yes the luck has turned in favor of players in recent years as they can leverage their contractual position way more than the club ever can. Because if they are about to become free agents, there are two possibilities financially for the player that also impacts the current club. The player only extends the contract if the salary is massively raised because leaving as a free agent doesn't make the player much cheaper for the club that is newly going to sign him. That's because the player demands a cash bonus.

If the releasing club would get maybe 60 million for that player one year before the contract expires, then the player knows that this is about the financial margin he can ask for his personal benefit for just signing the contract with the new club. It hasn't been this much like a land of milk and honey for players, but new player agents saw that there is potential to be exploited when they advise their players to let contracts expire. It is crazy lucrative, but really turns some of the transfers into shit shows and it must feel awkward for the ordinary person getting up in the morning for 20 bucks an hour.

It was not quite like that with Alaba. He asked for quite a high salary that he was paid by Real Madrid. It is true that he wanted a change and that he was in a great position because it wasn't just any club that wanted him, but Real Madrid. He instantly won the Champions League in his first year and he was very important for Real Madrid. I don't think Bayern Munich did enough, but in the end it is true that we don't know the whole story.

But they also made some other transfer mistakes in the past. Now with Harry Kane that was well done.

Hey duke, nice post! I always like when someone looks at things with a realistic view. It is understandable as you said, when players want to leave because they have this once in a lifetime opportunity (at least it feels like that for them in that point in time). But sometimes I think players should also not forget who fostered their careers. That is why I am a strong opponent of skipping training sessions, pretending to be injured and blackmailing the clubs that helped them grow into agreeing to a transfer.

Apart from that though I think in most cases it is the offer that the clubs can't decline. When they have a player that grows from 10m market value to 100m market value in two years, what can they do when the offer appears on their screen? Either the club itself has a legacy or unlimited cash or the player will undeniably leave either as a free agent or for a lot of money. That's the two choices - both painful - the smaller clubs have.

The Bundesliga title will be harder to win. Winning against Bayern in 34 games is so much harder than winning a group against Qarabag, BK Häcken and Molde and then face harder opponents in a two-leg matchup. It may not be easier by a lot, but winning the Bundesliga is harder.

What is the chance that Sevilla wins the La Liga title? And what is the chance that the win the Europa League?

I think this is an example that shows quite well why these knockout competitions allow for more variance.

Never underestimate teams like Copenhagen and Galatasaray is the lesson that every team can learn from this group. Manchester United fell for both Copenhagen and Galatasaray despite having the better team. But not only Manchester United, even Bayern Munich was facing big struggles against Galatasaray and could and should have lost the game. I think it is time to acknowledge for these favorite teams that these seemingly weaker teams can still fight back.

But I disagree about Manchester United and what they were supposed to be as you said. Manchester United is having problems for a while now and I am sure that there were people who bet against them because they knew that this is not gonna be easy for them and they were correct. I didn't expect Manchester United to lose those two games, but I was far from sure that they would win both games.

Do you mean Harry Kane could become the best player of this tournament in terms of the number of goals he can score or from a more general point of view, like convincing performances regardless of the number of goals scored?

If we look at the number of goals, there is still Haaland who I think will most likely be the strongest competitor for Kane to become the top scorer of this Champions League season. And there is also some luck involved as it makes quite a bit of a difference against which teams you are playing in the round of 16, quarterfinals, then semifinals and final.

Rasmus Højlund is still at the top of that list for Manchester United, but his great individual performance didn't help much. It may help him as other clubs will keep an eye on him and if Manchester United fails to qualify for the Champions League next season, I think Højlund will reconsider his engagement with Manchester United and express the desire to leave the club if some other top club is willing to pay whatever Manchester United will ask for.

I have now read your posts in this conversation two times to understand what you are talking about, and I am still wondering why you say that 1 point will not be enough to qualify for the last 16?

Atalanta has already qualified for the next round in the Europa League. They can lean back and lose both games now and would 100% guaranteed be in the next round. The only question that now remains is whether they will finished 1st or 2nd in that group. They have already won the head to head with Sturm Graz as they tied one game against them and won one game against them.

The only incentive to play their best now in the next two games is to give themselves the chance for a presumably easier draw in the round of the last 16.

There are several interesting ways regarding Xabi Alonso's future career that I think could become reality next season. There are three options in my opinion.

The first option is that he stays at Bayer Leverkusen because he wants to enjoy what he has built himself and reap the rewards if he sees the potential to win (more) titles with Bayer Leverkusen.

The second option is that Real Madrid is already in talks with him behind the scenes and they let him know that they want him at all cost if he plays a successful season with Bayer Leverkusen.

The third option is somewhat unexpected for most here, but once I heard the Bayern Munich bosses talk about Xabi Alonso and they couldn't stop praising him, saying what a great guy and personality he is and that he would become an amazing coach one day. What will happen if Tuchel gets sacked towards the end of the season and Xabi Alonso is the one who beats Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga? Could it be possible that Bayern Munich will try to make Alonso take Tuchel's position?

Initially I thought that it is not very realistic for Real Madrid to have a chance buying Davies as Bayern Munich would not let him go, but his contract expires in 2025 and that means Summer 2024 is the last opportunity for Bayern Munich to make some money from a transfer.

He is really a player that fits Real Madrid's requirements for pacy and technically sound players perfectly. It is also important to keep in mind that several of the Real Madrid defenders are 30 years and older. It wouldn't be surprising if Real Madrid tries hard to sign Davies, but I think Bayern Munich did not forget that they made a mistake when they allowed Alaba to leave the club.

But all too often people put it as if clubs like Monaco had a choice and decided to sell their players instead of keeping them, but this is not how it works when we are talking about "title winning stars". What do you think how long it would take Real Madrid or PSG to make an offer to any player that scores 20+ goals in Ligue 1 and decisively contributed to winning a title? Their hands are literally tied because the players often have contracts that are about to expire in the near future and they don't have the financial means to top up the salary to a level that could compete with Real Madrid or PSG. This is how economic cycle in football works. Smaller clubs get lucky and this title winning star, raise him and then they have to sell him to the rich boys in the house. There isn't much that these clubs that are between 2nd and 1st tier can do.

Creativity, effort, consistency and precision. His passing is above everyone else's and that can make quite the difference. He really is the engine of the Manchester City game in both directions. Whether they attack or defend, De Bruyne is present at all times and decides whether to speed up the game or be calm in a certain situation. With Gundogan and De Bruyne being gone both at once, this specific kind of character is missing in the team at the moment.

I believe that it is more a way to spend some time on your own or find a way to relax. Those who gamble to win that one big jackpot are doomed to lose as jackpots are called jackpots for a reason. That is more something you don't win very likely. Chasing a huge win with some lottery tickets every now and then is quite different from gambling on a regular basis, may that be playing slot machines or some other form of gambling like blackjack or poker. Winning is always the goal, but if someone has control over their gambling habits I believe playing a session of blackjack with limited funds is similar to going to watch a movie in the cinema for some people. It is a form of entertainment. The fact that there are jackpots to be won is more of a side effect and not something a player expects to happen.

No doubt that after 6 minutes when Tottenham scored that goal, everyone watching the game thought the same: this is going to be a nightmare game for Chelsea. But that red card had far more impact on the game than I thought it would. Of course it changed the whole dynamics and it was supposed to become a different and much harder game for Tottenham from there on. This was weird game over 90 minutes and more. The first goal deflected from a defender. The red card that at first nobody understood and then the penalty hits the post and goes in. 12 minutes extra time for the first half and then this tackling when the player had already received a yellow card... That red card was due for stupidity only. But it was still quite an entertaining game.

I would really not be too worried about the pressure being put on the shoulders of the players because of the money that is paid because this is not only valid for transfer fees, but also for the salaries and this is where all of these players are playing in a golden era. If they are good enough, a single season is enough for them to secure their entire financial future. One good season and they get bought by a big club, offered a five-years contract with 15m or more per year and that's it for their career. Remember Bale and how he accepted to not play while at the same time he decided against leaving Real Madrid and instead played some golf instead of meeting the Real Madrid team as a team building measure. He didn't care because he signed this money printing contract and just enjoyed life. This doesn't mean I like what he did, but there are players with contracts that they could never dream of in their life, but now football makes everyone rich.

Prediction 1: $36,542.42
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But leading the table after 12 games is a whole lot different from leading the table after 5 games. But don't get me wrong, I agree that this is very early to conclude anything about their chances to finish the season at the top or among the best La Liga teams, but the consistency they have maintained over almost a third of the season has been remarkable. They enjoy the game and score so many goals. It is great attacking football.

But I am looking forward to December 10th when they play against Barcelona at home and then beginning of January they play against Atletico Madrid also at home. If they then still lead the table and don't lose these games, I think we can welcome a new contender for the La Liga title.  

Since none of the teams you mentioned can afford to give some of their most important players a rest, I doubt that your assumption will turn out to be correct. Players who have to take a break because of injuries pr bad physical conditions will of course get their needed break, but all other players who are fully available and fit will also play. I would be surprised if one of the coaches decides to let some of the best players sit on the bench, risking to lose important points in the fight for the La Liga title. It never worked that way and I am sure this is the case to date.

You are probably right, but the tricky thing here is that retrospectively it is naturally easier to tell whether a player's transfer price was justified or not. But I think this could also be misleading because what would someone say when Mason Mount explodes and his performances develop into a never seen before level in three months from now? When a club signs a striker and that striker scored 30 goals and then scores 15 goals, it would be too easy to say that the transfer price should have been half of what has been paid.

But I think you are pointing towards a problem that more generally exists and not only the transfer price for Mason Mount was too high, but probably for 99% of the players the transfer prices were too high because the system has been flooded with tons of money recently. I thought about this too and whether these prices can ever be earned through success in football and merchandise sales and viewership in the stadiums etc., but my inner voice says that this system is consuming more than it generates. But my insight is too little to really have an educated opinion on that.