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This algorithm only ensures short run profitably vs electricity. It does not ensure anyone gets an ROI on their equipment in the long run, especially not you. To make matters worse, some people even have free electricity.
The algorithm ensures that someone somewhere is always going to be trying to drain every last mbit to cut their equipment losses as small as possible.
It's designed to support the network, not you.
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So let me get this straight: You're worried about possibly catching the very bottom bottom of a possible 15% drop before the 200%-1000% rise?
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Since mid 2013, mining has always been a bad investment for all sorts of reasons, but if you build just one gpu miner to mine altcoins, it can be fun and a good way to learn about crypto.
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I've been wondering whether to use market cap instead of price chart. If you look at market cap on All-time on a logarithmic scale, it shows some horizontal and sloped trendlines that weren't broken as they were on the price chart. |
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The best one , I like it! Back in April-June 2014, I left you guys with these 'extremely bearish charts', which are now 'extremely bullish charts':  There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer. Guys I have some bad news for short term speculators. I just got back from the future in my time machine and I managed to take a screenshot of 'wisdom.  This is not a predictionI'm not trying to be a bear here. In fact I'm currently long and hope that this doesn't happen. However, I couldn't help but share a fractal idea I had in my mind of how, if a downtrend were to resume, it could look like a fractal of the previous downtrend. The theory is as follows: Notice how, in the Feb-May bear market, there were two sub-crashes, one was the 'gox-crash' from Feb-Mar, and the other was the 'China crash' from late Mar-Apr. Each sub-crash had their own resistance line which branched out from the main resistance line, which had a much lesser slope than the sub-resistance-lines. Each sub-crash then recovered in a weak way which eventually led into the next subcrash. Finally in May, the whole bear market supposedly ends, but it ends in a weak way. Now what if, this whole Feb-May bear market, is actually a 'sub-crash' of yet a larger bear market. Feb-May is subcrash one and then in July-October will be subcrash two. July-October will have its own resistance line similar to the resistance in Feb-May, and both resistance lines will branch off of yet a larger parent resistance line with a lesser slope which spans the entire actual bear market of one year. Finally sometime in 2015 the bear market actually ends as the parent resistance line is broken. There are two support lines in my chart: one is a line connected to a point starting in late 2012 and another is a line connected all the way back to the 2011 crash bounce/recovery. The Feb-May subcrash finds support against the first support line, which was not about to die without a fight. However, its weak trading action where the line is constantly being tested and there is low volume eventually gives way to it breaking and initiating the July-October subcrash as the weekly ichimoku cloud is breached. The entire bear market eventually finds its support on the original 2011 trendline.   Elliot waves???  Again I'm not saying or hoping that this will happen and it's just an idea for the math brains to think about. |
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My comments reference the ATH rallies and initial 300% jumps only, not these slow moving interim corrections.It's not quite as dangerous to short here but still stupid because you're trading against a bull market at the moment.
Holding is never dangerous if you are long term bullish on fundamentals, and isn't really that dangerous to begin with. You never lose more than you invest in a hold and even get 'refunded' some of it back. Shorting is always the most dangerous type of trade to take at all. Unlike a hold, you can be liquidated and completely lose all of your investment. In addition, you can lose more than your investment and be in debt to your broker if they don't liquidate you properly.
Maximum losses on types of trades:
Hold (regular long): <100% of your investment. (for example 50% of your investment if btc went to $230)
Leverage long: 300% of your investment (at 3:1 leverage)
Short: Infinity
-Dont forget that while shorting, you are also locking your funds up with a dubious counterparty.
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I know some speculators reverted to fiat at the end of the year because of accounting/taxation uncertainties in previous years. If these uncertainties have been cleared up it might be less selling pressure towards the end of the month than I originally feared.
Or I could be talking out of my ass. Who knows?
I'm actually specifically waiting till 2016 before I do any fiat/btc exchanges, for tax purposes. I'd prefer not to do any trading at all, but if there's a move I might trade on margin. |
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It's already been $1K and dreams about $5K -$10K are a perfectly rational place for price to be driven up on the next ATH rally, if only due to speculators/traders who are along for the usual ATH ride. Whether it stays there is another story.
It's been when there was a flux of money from China that is now shut by PBOC and when there was so-called willybot. When and only when. There will always be some 'excuse' that the speculators will have for the next rally: Some country doing capital flight, some exchange misbehaving, gox coming back, Mark Zuckerberg is going all in, something. Just wait for it. |
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When the market is rallying , I am: opening and closing my leverage long.
When the rally starts it's major crash and is turning around, I am: also opening and closing my base position.
Once a bear market is well established (eg feb 2014): only then do I also employ shorting into my trading.
-Never try to call the top
-A rally is the worst time to short due to the exponentially jumping upside. The bulls will hunt you down and eat your liquidated fiat for lunch
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A macd crossing down at the high is a really weak indicator.
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It's already been $1K and dreams about $5K -$10K are a perfectly rational place for price to be driven up on the next ATH rally, if only due to speculators/traders who are along for the usual ATH ride. Whether it stays there is another story.
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This is the third time btc has seriously tried to break 3100 on Huobi and OKCoin in the last week. Looks like it will cruise through this time since it's more of a steady rise but who knows. Also, notice how 30 thousand+ coins are thrown around like it's no big deal on Huobi  CNY/BTC volume on these exchanges have no fees. None of this volume matters. The 30K coins is actually a bunch of bots with no more than 400 coins each passing back and forth the same coins dozens of times in a high frequency trading algorithm. Do not follow these exchanges. Bitfinex is currently the leader. |
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There are now 5 or more recursive cuphandles on the chart.
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$100 per coin? What about the people who are in for $0.1 per coin?
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One does not simply price bitcoin at whatever it's current base value is according to today's adoption/fundamentals. You have to then add all of the speculation and the potential of being up to $1,000,000 a coin on top of that. This speculation margin has traditionally been up to 1000% and would come nowhere near touching the actual value. So if you said around waiting for the actual value you'd never get any action and feel really stupid when the next rally came around.
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Wow this is so dull I had to go the casino and got much better action in the poker room playing 2/5 holdem.
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I wonder how many people hire one of the bitcoin-paid psychics, to ask where the price of bitcoin is going?
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Bears don't neccessarily want the price down so they can buy. They might want it down because they want to validate their sell as the right decision and have peace of mind.
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You don't actually want to be rich. It's really stressful. You're constantly worrying about what's going to happen to your money, where to invest it, what's going to happen to the country, where btc price is going, etc. It's like not really living life.
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