Wow, heading down I guess??
thats the forecast. might be a bumpy road but targets are in the 21xx range. a thought occurred to me... if one wanted to bid on 50k btc and had a lot of btc sitting around to play the market, one would ensure that one was able to obtain them for a good price in the upcoming auction. I just read the waves  so many ways to move the pieces on this giant chess board. |
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Wow, heading down I guess??
thats the forecast. might be a bumpy road but targets are in the 21xx range. |
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Until the market will understand it can't build the sub-waves required for the bullish scenario, after that it will seek THE real bottom.
I am tracking both scenarios. Its no good being too sure of these things. At the moment we are not unfolding in a typical wave V price action, so I would argue that the market is capable of building those sub waves. |
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Thanks again for posting. Do you think we will keep going down after that movement ?
No I think we will be very much range bound for some time. doldrums  |
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We have seen a triangle breakout and although the thrust was strong this is still not a valid base to push upwards from. I expect a bearish movement tonight. Triangles are always terminal moves.  |
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I am not sure why you believe that if we break 3000 we have "broken out". I mean there is nothing that guarantees that bitcoin has to make new ATHs if we break 3000 is there?
I mean we all would love another bubble mode, but 1200 could theoretically be the ATH for another 12+ months without the market also having to go down in a straight line?
Why couldn't bitcoin go above 3000 and then still make lower lows or at least retest them?
breaking 3000 breaks a trend and that would be a breakout. I dont believe new ATH is guaranteed but its a convincing count. Anything is possible I think we all understand that. |
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That is log scale. Bitcoinwisdom\Huobi
Oh true but looking closer that trend line doesnt have the same significance as the one I have drawn. we are connecting the extreme of wave B not wave V (the top) because its the tip of wave B where the down trend of wave C begins. Draw the line from the tip of wave B and you will see the chinese exchanges are not out yet. |
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Longterm resistance you are referring to was already temporary broken on chinese exchanges. So we can visit that area (~3000 CNY) in a form of spike and still have false breakout later with $270 retest possible.
Thats true for the linear scale but what is important to us is the logarithmic scale as this is an exponentially growing asset. the chinese exchanges have not broken this. |
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Is it still a possibility that I is iii of C, and we could we still be on wave v of C, where iv of C is just explanding into a larger, deeper correction?
That was the original count, that we had yet to see wave v of hypothetical C OR I to come. because of the size of hypothetical wave iv this count has lost all plausibility and is better explained by a complete impulsive with a blowout wave v. There are only two plausible counts left, that we have begun wave V to retest 270, or that we are in wave II of the primary (incomplete) to new all time highs. If we pass 2000 yuan, wave II is invalidated. If we pass 3000 yuan (practically 2800 or so) then wave V, $270 retest is invalidated. big spread but quite simple. This agrees with some very important trend lone degrees that pass over around 3000 yuan, signalling a breakout at that level. I wouldn't necessarily call 3000 as invalidation of any V down. We could be in some kind of double or triple zig-zag/3's that would certainly rise to or above 3000 and still be a valid IV. Also, (I don't want to be a stickler, but) 2000 would not invalidate your I/II count. The beginning of I was at ~1900. That would be the invalidation point since II can retrace a full 100% of I, but not more. I would disagree with the double zig zag hypothesis, my argument is based on larger trend lines here. We dont have space to muck around above 3000 yuan. by the next time we reach 3000 yuan, long term momentum has shifted and we have broken out. 2000 is just a nice number very unlikely that wave II will get that far but maybe you are right, somewhere in 19xx would be 100% invalidation.  |
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Is it still a possibility that I is iii of C, and we could we still be on wave v of C, where iv of C is just explanding into a larger, deeper correction?
That was the original count, that we had yet to see wave v of hypothetical C OR I to come. because of the size of hypothetical wave iv this count has lost all plausibility and is better explained by a complete impulsive with a blowout wave v. There are only two plausible counts left, that we have begun wave V to retest 270, or that we are in wave II of the primary (incomplete) to new all time highs. If we pass 2000 yuan, wave II is invalidated. If we pass 3000 yuan (practically 2800 or so) then wave V, $270 retest is invalidated. big spread but quite simple. This agrees with some very important trend lone degrees that pass over around 3000 yuan, signalling a breakout at that level. |
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I must point out that although my dominant count has changed to bearish, there is still a possibility that wave II of hypothetical I is just expanding into a larger, deeper correction. total invalidation of wave I hypothesis is the break of the 2050 level. All probable counts still point to lower from this point, one way or another.  |
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oh, wow. When do you think we'll get to sub 350??
Thanks for the posts too
We could painfully drift for days and weeks before 350 but it will probably be broken in the swift move of wave iii. |
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You think we ever go sub 350? I'll be so fucked if we do
You still think we'll go 2280 btw?
It seems like we still need to retest 275 after what happened last night. this price action is not consistent with a wave III count and signals hypothetical wave c of IV is complete, and we may be in the early stages of wave V. I am changing my dominant count to bearish. I have been encouraging all to be prepared for this possibility, so its a shame to hear that this affects you so much. Wave V might be slow and volatile although should none the less present some good trades. Yes I still think 2280 is in order for the short term. |
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How do you see it's an implusle?
because the fractals i and iii divide into impulses, and iv is evidently not an impulse, therefore corrective. really the only probable explanation is that we are in an impulse. |
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we have begun an impulse. this could be part of a larger impulse system. Lets see what happens when it bounces.  |
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Hi, chessnut.
If this move to 2xx happens, is it expected (or required) to break the previous low (275-280)?
Good question, no it is not required to break it, but I have not an expectation for it to break/not break 275. |
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This price action is enough to assume we are in wave V to 2xx which couls take some weeks. Ill begin tracking soon.
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Is this a valid count?
Yes it is valid and worth tracking. Not sure how it fits in with the bigger picture however. |
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i am not sure a retrace to 2440 will even happen, it certainly doesn't look like that will at the moment.
Yeah the market is fairly strong, but all I am saying is we should have a period of correction of a higher fractal than the triangle. a fair bit of time sideways. 2440 is not out of the question. |
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And after retrace to 2440?
I need more price action to say. Cant be sure where a triangle fits in here at the moment. Ok, you think okcoin futures will go sub 400? How sure are you that we'll go down btw?? Not sure we will go down to 2440, probably not sub 400 on futures for some time even if this is a reversal. What a triangle means is that we have hit a juncture of one higher fractal. corrections may be shallow, but what it most likely means is we will not make much more upside progress for some time. with risk of a long time of sidways action and potential dip to 2440 its not a great time to buy is all im saying. Im certainly not saying holders should sell all and certainly I would not suggest to short this beast. |
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