But in terms of how crashes go, the dollar has always been the best temporary safe haven. Anyone that says otherwise apparently can't read historical charts. Commodities have dived during crashes including precious metals. I expect that Bitcoin will take a temporary tumble as well, but I guess we shall see. It'll of course rally if banks start to fail and we get more QE.
I've always believed, long before Jim Rickards wrote his new book, that the next crash you will NOT be able to just go all-in on cash beforehand and buy the dip. All those banks funds and money markets will be frozen, and depositors probably forced to bail-in under the "citibank clause". I just don't see any plausible scenario in which going all-in cash is a good idea. Also a good chance they do something like a 50% currency devaluation overnight like the 1998 Korean won deval:  This will be the crash in which metals holders become rich somewhere along the way, and god knows what the hell will happen to bitcoin. Cryptocurrency scalability is really too low to even talk about being some big part of the next financial crash. What are you gonna do, have a bunch of commoners pile in buying $10,000 worth of bitcoin and then paying a $1000 transaction fee just to move it? Metals, nazis, Jews. Fuck sake, I've not ignored anyone before but you are just full of shit mate. Look I hold metals but just change the record. This isn't nazi sympathisers silver talk, its bitcoin talk. I wonder how many people here actually see what you post. |
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You have been warned about the meaning of 2780.
What are you talking about? |
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If it gets too high in to the 2700s it gets slammed back down pretty fast.
Can we hold 2700 this weekend?
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So...weekend lift or dump?
I feel like it's a weekend dump. It's either gonna roll over or rocket up, lol. Does anyone think that we might be in a kind of ascending triangle with a tightening of the price range that is working out in such a way that an upwards breakout is likely to take place in the coming days? so in that regard, we are likely to experience an upwards break before the end of the weekend resulting in another test of $3k? Thereafter, if we actually get to the point of testing $3k resistance, what are the odds of breaking through $3k? 60% yes/40% no? 5% yes 5% yes to which part? The whole thing? I understand that there are at least a couple of steps: Step 1) we have to get to the testing $3k resistance arena (let's call that getting above $2,920) - that is approximately within less than 3% of $3k.... getting to that resistance testing arena by the end of the weekend may be less than 50% Step 2) We have to actually get above $3k - I am not sure whether flash spiking above $3k counts, but I suppose technically it does, even though it is more meaningful to actually stay above $3k - once we get into the test arena, the I give it better odds of breaking above, but we gotta get there first. So maybe I am only giving less than 30% to the whole package, even though I am giving 60% for the second half, if we were to get there. Edited after posting above:
$3100 is the most important test point in my opinion, $3000 won't be as hard
I agree with you, and relates to my second step idea, above about how much above $3k is sufficient in order to stay above $3k, and you are correct probably $3,100 would be enough. However, if prices go to $3,100, then it is pretty likely the next test of resistance would be in the $3,300 to $3,600 arena. 5% to going over 3k this weekend. I was truthfully saying this to wind you up a bit. I only said it as I remember saying 5% last weekend to you. Never mind, the moment has passed. Back to my real opinion.....I can't back this up and it's only a feeling but I think a bit more up and a lot more down followed by more up then down but mainly sideways........AND THEN 3k mid July. That's not too crazy a prediction is it? |
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So...weekend lift or dump?
I feel like it's a weekend dump. It's either gonna roll over or rocket up, lol. Does anyone think that we might be in a kind of ascending triangle with a tightening of the price range that is working out in such a way that an upwards breakout is likely to take place in the coming days? so in that regard, we are likely to experience an upwards break before the end of the weekend resulting in another test of $3k? Thereafter, if we actually get to the point of testing $3k resistance, what are the odds of breaking through $3k? 60% yes/40% no? 5% yes |
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Segwit2x is a trap : why would you want a 2Mb Block size and 6Mb witness signature ... ?
Because asicboost and others miners industries tricks need this size (of block) to avoid the result of the initial SegWit limitation (limitation for miners, not for the nodes ...).
I prefer SegWit right now with 1Mb Block size and 3Mb witness signatures ...
Yeah, but I think that the way that the various proposals are playing out, segwit would be implemented immediately and the 2mb upgrade and the supposed hardfork would be subject to testing and achieving 95% consensus.. So it seems that the value of the segwit2x is that it allows seg wit first and then the rest is contingent. Am I reading this wrong? Is there something mandatory or more scummy in there? Unless someone says that I am totally wrong again: Yes, that's it. And it's a good thing. No hidden agenda unless... uhhh. it's very hidden. So in essence, segwit is a soft fork that would go into effect at an earlier stage and then it seems that if segwit goes into effect, it will likely receive more and more hashing power. I anticipate that there is going to be considerable lack of an ability to achieve consensus regarding a hardfork, unless it is truly of a real high consensus level - and there is a pretty large contingency of folks that really see no value to increase the blocksize limit, which will likely become even more apparent once seg wit actually goes live... why fuck up a good thing with bloated and totally unnecessary 2mg blocks? If all goes well, Segwit2x will pass with a near 100% hash rate. That same hashrate will enforce, some time later (3? 6 months?)) a 2MB blocksize increase. Yeah, but you already conceded that the two are not automatic, and implementing seg wit does not mandate implementing either 2mb upgrade or a hardfork without further contingencies. In that regard, we could achieve nearly 100% hashrate and/or consensus for segwit (in the first stage), and then only achieve a much smaller hashrate/consensus for 2mb and/or hardfork. I am basically against HF's but... if they are able to unite a near 100% hashrate I am ok to a HF for blocksize increase. A FIXED 2MB blocksize increase, not an abomination like BU/EC.
Well, yeah. If the hardfork and/or 2mb is nearly 100% or even more than 95%, then it is not contentious; but you are assuming too much if you believe that there is going to be an automatic agreement about either 2mb or hardfork merely because segwit goes through under this arrangement, no?
As much as I am PRO Segwit and LN, let me tell you it's effect won't be inmediately noticed. There's no LN in place yet. Many wallets don't support Segwit. So the effects won't be as much as theoretical, PLUS if we are really going to grow (don't we all want that?) Segwit+LN won't be enough to support that growth.
I pretty much agree with you that it is going to take a while to build upon segwit and to advantage from such - even though there may be some developers who are more ready than others. On the other hand, you seem to be assuming that there is some kind of clogging of the network that goes beyond spamming. Is it possible that seg wit might address some of the spamming? However, I understand that down the road, spamming might resume because there may be some folks who remain intent on creating the impression that 2mb is actually needed - even with the implementation of segwit.
A reasonable 2MB increase would be also welcome IF IT IS IMPLEMENTED with an almost 100% hashrate.
Again, you are assuming 100%.. that would be non-contentious, and even 95%+ would likely be close to non contentious, if able to achieve such support levels.
Let's recap here.... HF are undesirable for the risk of a split... with an almost unanimous hashrate there's no such risk, so it's ok to me.
Agreed about that part. Remind me not to start an argument with JJG |
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Will this really affect the price do you think? Thanks. |
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Once again, thanks for keeping this thread alive Mr Sunshine. |
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Back over $2700 at Stamp and Bitcoinaverage.
This is better. Thumbs up here. |
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to clarify last night's discussion: ... I'm going to call it now, segwit2x will be responsible for activating segwit at last due to overwhelming miner support, BUT great thanks to James Hilliard for introducing them to BIP91 which makes segwit2x compatible with the other segwit activations. Watch this for the very rapid rise in segwit2x support that will happen fast now: https://coin.dance/blocksSegwit may well get a miner activated soft fork before BIP148's UASF which remains in limbo in terms of meaningful support but seems to have had the desired effect of forcing miners' hands in one way or another. What happens after segwit though is a mystery, but there is enough miner hashrate support for 2MB that it might happen too. very lolworthy that Hilliard is 1. a core dev. 2. works for 'bitmainwarranty' (not bitmain but still!) but 3. wrote this bip91 to tie segwit in, to 'both' parties' satisfaction miners' signalling has for the moment no real effect. the date to watch is 16 July. bitmain (viaBTC) may then later hard fork to make this chinacoin, which imnvho may have a little value as an altcoin so, if there's any correlation to price with all this, sideways for ~4 weeks, then more likely than not blast off I am a bit out of the loop, what happens July 16? I have a BBQ that day with the family. |
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: he wants to invite you into his sex van to sell you shiny bits of metal that sit there and do nothing. Ha ha love this Edit. This is false, they have gone down over the past 4 years I know that. So "nothing" isn't totally accurate. |
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Pools not signaling for segwit2x:
Canoe
Kano CKPool
Slush Pool
BTCC
GBMiners
You want I should "take care of them"? So guys, why won't these signal for segwit2x? What's the reason for this? Are they outnumbered? Just trying to understand all this. I get the bit no one wants a hard fork, we don't need messy. |
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More miner has starting to signal Segwit2x.  This good? We ok with this? (From long term non technical hodler) |
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We are in 'return to normal', it seems to me  [Argh. I am a total newb. I am pretty sure it goes under 2100 again in the next days. The weekly red candle seems a strong sign bubble is over. Rebound was to 2650, and now it will go down. For tax reasons i can only do one sell per year. So one sell and one rebuy. But i am paralyzed looking at the bars and don't do anything.] Do nothing then. Hodl on. Always a winning idea in the end. |
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Would shorting right now still make some money or will it go up soon again. Missed the "big" drop while eating ...
Can't really make sense of it right now....
Edit:
Bitcoinforcast is predicting for it to go down but it says this at the top :
Flash info: This exchange is currently 4.42% below global market average. Correction up to 2 359 EUR may be imminent.
Just flip a coin buddy. That's pretty much what everyone else does. |
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Good to see that the price has recovered well after the recent dump, lowest I saw was in the $2100's range. We are now up to $2540 on Bitstamp so the question I want to ask is who are the weak hands who sold at the bottom?
Yep I was thinking that we were going to have one more leg to the dump (correction), and in the past 12 hours or so, I have becoming a bit more inclined to believe that there might not be a third leg. We just got two legs. Also, I do not sell on the way down, I buy, but since I thought that there might be a third leg down, I held back a bit on buying as much, just in case. We are not out of the woods, yet, so we could still have a third downward leg, but the odds seem to becoming less and less especially given the seemingly pretty decent onwards and upwards buying pressure, and if we get above $2600, then it going to seem pretty probable that we are back on track to test $3k. Actually, it is going to be a bit difficult for this week's candle to turn out green. In order to close green, we have to be above $2,960 at midnight GMT. What are the odds? less than 30%? I wonder? Would be pretty bullish if this week's candle ended up green, no? 30% I think is very high. I'd say more like 5% Hahahahaa.. I understand that you want to be conservative in your estimations, but What a pessimist!!!!  I could give you 15% or 20%, but 5%? I know that you are not a bear, but isn't that a bit too low? Yes you are correct I am no bear JJG. Maybe I will meet you in the middle then! Basically I can not see it happening in that short timeframe that's all. I am excited to see where we are going the second half of this year though! |
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Good to see that the price has recovered well after the recent dump, lowest I saw was in the $2100's range. We are now up to $2540 on Bitstamp so the question I want to ask is who are the weak hands who sold at the bottom?
Yep I was thinking that we were going to have one more leg to the dump (correction), and in the past 12 hours or so, I have becoming a bit more inclined to believe that there might not be a third leg. We just got two legs. Also, I do not sell on the way down, I buy, but since I thought that there might be a third leg down, I held back a bit on buying as much, just in case. We are not out of the woods, yet, so we could still have a third downward leg, but the odds seem to becoming less and less especially given the seemingly pretty decent onwards and upwards buying pressure, and if we get above $2600, then it going to seem pretty probable that we are back on track to test $3k. Actually, it is going to be a bit difficult for this week's candle to turn out green. In order to close green, we have to be above $2,960 at midnight GMT. What are the odds? less than 30%? I wonder? Would be pretty bullish if this week's candle ended up green, no? 30% I think is very high. I'd say more like 5% |
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Maybe bitcoin crashing a bit right before ETH crash?
Or Eth take over the #1 crypto spot? (market cap) Less than 2 weeks and it'll be over btc marketcap. Unbelievable really. It's done that in such a short time. |
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Are we trying to push up or am I being a bit optimistic?
I'm usually completely wrong.
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If you are in the United Kingdom you can use any bank as they all follow the same norms.
No you can't. They'll shut you down. Business with them is down to their own discretion and they don't want anything to do with BTC. That's why there are no proper exchanges. No UK Bitcoin business has ever managed to maintain a bank account, so the best option would be to wait for Fidor, but perhaps they'll never manage it precisely because they're Bitcoin friendly. Perhaps you should ask the high ranking Localbitcoins traders. They must be managing something, though I've no idea what. Another option is to have a trawl through here - https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinUK/ as this pops up often. If I remember rightly Nationwide was regularly mentioned as not being too bad. It could've changed though. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264679.220 this thread too. Thanks gentlemand. Good info as always. |
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