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Looks like china is pushing so darn hard that we may have missed out on an opportunity to trade wave (v) of iii. not to worry, we can still trade wave v. we will get another chance to buy in this area, chances are the wave iv correction that is coming will be very steep. so please be careful with margin if you are long.
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2900, then 2xx, then 1k. If you end up being correct you will be rolling in money. Those are huge swings.
I will be tracking both counts. This impulsive upwards could be wave c (IV) or wave I (  ) of the next bubble. wether it is I or C we can still potentially short the top of wave c or I. if it goes to 2xx, thatd be great. If it doesnt, there will be signs to close out short and go long before we make any losses. So, we could be rolling in money both ways if we are careful.  |
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Yes, it is behaving how I want it.
now the count is clear, we had a fifth wave blowout, absolute beauty. but just as I said before it happened, we need to return to the territory of wave (((iv))). This is within the red circle. hopefully we will get a nice buy signal there. no need to catch the knife.
Its a bumpy road from here, but until we reach around 2900, or about 450-480, we should not pass this level again (2470, or about $403).
Which means the 2xx dream is dead. How high can it go? Or is it too early to tell? see italics. we may still get 2xx, its possible, but we need to go to 2900 first how high can it go? I dunno! could go very high! might stall at 1k. we should know when it turns though. Will be a fun wave to ride. |
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Yes, it is behaving how I want it. now the count is clear, we had a fifth wave blowout, absolute beauty. but just as I said before it happened, we need to return to the territory of wave (((iv))). This is within the red circle. hopefully we will get a nice buy signal there. no need to catch the knife. Its a bumpy road from here, but until we reach around 2900, or about 450-480, we should not pass this level again (2470, or about $403).  |
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Hi Chessnut,
I have commented before and been reading your thread on a daily basis although have little understanding of EW but its only a small step to sit down and start reading.
I bought into BTC for the long term and sitting on about 125BTC at $350
As an investor I am happy to sit on it for the long term however it would be nice to do some scalping whilst it slowly rises.
My main problem is that my current exchnge has only recently started and the bid/offer spread is often $12/15. Its UK based Coinfloor.
We are struggling to get UK money onto the exchanges as it can take a week to deposit/withdraw and then I had a thought.
Maybe I should transefer my `BTC to an exchange with small margins. I know how you value the china exchanges over bitstamp etc due to the depth of liquidity.
Could you suggest an exchange i should consider which would help make scalping more viable whilst running a business modely that you trust.
TY
Hi Arv1e, cant go past OKcoin international to trade bitcoin futures, and I hear Okcoin.cny is pretty good for the spot market. I left BFX seeking liquidity and thats where I found it. I also used to use BTC-E. great exchange, quite a bit smaller, but I totally trust them. I believe they now allow easy fiat withdraws through visa too. Of coarse this is more than a scalping thread. I post larger views too which have been fairly accurate. The reason I love to scalp is because using EW one may try to catch a large wave on high leverage by catching smaller waves at large turning points. EW analysis offers second to none strategies of doing this. Scalping is really stressful and not for most people! but maybe I can help with profit taking and risk management decisions through my scalping edge. |
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Do you have some subscription service for your calls? I would sign up on a monthly basis.
On a different note, RyanDeClem did exactly what you just did on this thread. Lured everyone with very good calls -- almost perfect. A honey trap. Then closed the thread after a run of good counts.
You have a knack for picking patterns and thanks for sharing. Made a donation as well. Enjoy!
Hi there, you are a legend, thanks! seems like this thread might go on a while longer. I dont have a subscription service as such although I am likely going to be offering my services to AKW analytics. Ill let you know how that works. I really dont mean to lure anyone into a trap of coarse  Im trying to help people stop losing so much money selling at the bottom and buying the top, and the thread also serves as my trading log which keeps me on the ball. i love this thread, please keep it up  Thanks for your appreciation Thanks chessnut! Please keep up the thread. I learned so much from this, and will contribute my own ideas when I have a better grasp on this stuff. I made a donation and will continue to donate if you keep posting your analysis.
Thanks so much for donating, keeps me energised! I wouldnt expect anyone to donate unless they have really made money from my trades. I think thats a sustainable arrangement |
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if we see a nicely define impulsive wave from here to low 2500s we will have a buy signal that will take us to 2700 yuan+  |
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Are you opening a long position again there?
I dont know at this point in time but there is a strong chance |
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at present it seems to me that we will be revisiting low 2500s fairly soon.
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I find your posts very insightfull (I only discovered this topic yesterday). Based on your analysis I sold part of my trading stash (nothing considerable) at 334 EUR (Kraken's top was 335 EUR ). Anyway, I hope you will continue with your analysis, I will donate some BTC in the future as well. Im sorry for your loss of coarse but with a lot of those scalps its really not a matter of certainty. While the bigger picture worked out (failed to make new lows as yet) I have recently strung together a set of trades and directions that would have bagged the follower a lot of cash. today I closed my position at 2595 yuan at a profit of 207%. |
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That my friends..... is what you call a iii wave and a fifth wave blowout! yeah! This breakout price action has given us some evidence that we have bottomed out at $275 and may never return.
This is my dominant count. This thread is reaching a conclusion. I will continue to track the primary of the next bubble, but that might be the end. If you have found any of my EW analysis useful and have made some killer profits then a fraction of that would be welcome in my bitcoin wallet as thanks and incentive to continue. 1Hyit1R9hd1WS58CtNdAUqhM7BknKx5i1N |
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so what has just happened is wave ((iii)) got to 2539 and wave ((iv)) took us to 2480.
2480 is a critical level. It is the level that wave (iv) will approach but probably not pass after it tops out shortly in the high 2500s and possibly even low 2600s.
Ill be taking profit high 2580s and placing a fat order buy in this area (2490ish)
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Looks like we will reach the forecasted 2500 level in style. 0.618 wave (i) make wave (iii) project to 2545 or so. like I said, watch out for a deep wave (iv) correction might even test 2400 again. 2900 yuan is still on target! you might want to take some profit in the mid 2500 yuan range an buy back in the 2400 range,
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I meant stamp
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measuring up the fibs in the west, BFX bitstamp could be bound for about 420 quite soon, and medium topping of in the 430s in the not too distant future.  |
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This price action is behaving consistent with my current c wave/primary impulsive count. I am fairly confident that we are bound for 2500 yuan or about $415 within 24-48 hours. expect more sharp movemets up. we are in wave ((iii)) of (iii). watch and enjoy!
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Here is a piece of advice if you have not bought in....
hypothetical wave ii and wave (ii) have been shallow corrections. to conserve fair retracement within this system we should expect wave iv and (iv) to be deep.
In other words, it will pay to practise patience and caution above 2400! or you may pay with the hair on your head!
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I said about 36 hours ago that we might be around 2400 -.- well I still believe we are in a rapid state of acceleration and Im going to post here a ballsy chart of what could be happening right now. this fits the bigger picture really well and consistently where we might top around 2800-3000 yuan. Its not a pretty chart but pretty much says enough. We may be in wave (iii) of iii now, the very guts of a rally. large scale sentiment is turning and big money is supporting this move. This market has been an absolute PIG to short at the top. there is a lot of upwards pressure here and I think we could be at around 2500 yuan within, lets say, 48 hours this time . Of coarse this chart is not a trade signal. buying here is risky as fark. best to be holding long from a lower level as I have signalled. If you are looking to get in from now you might not be gifted with good risk reward.  EDIT - heres another one  |
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At the time of writing, we have broken out of the correction. great time to buy, put stop under local lows, 2216 or so. This could get really exciting.
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a good long signal here is a simple breakout,  |
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