The best advice has always been: Do not invest in shitcoins! You could win but then you could lose all. The risk is too big. Besides, you will lose your sleep if when your shitcoin crashes day after day for 2-3 years, hitting 95%+ loss and no guarantees for a recovery. The shitcoin pumps were abundant in late 2017 indeed, but how can this be a sign for a coming bear market now? May be they attract the risky players more, but are they needed for BTC's price discovery? I don't think that the weak hands are good for BTC.

The other and way more important short- andl longterm market indicators are not present for such a U-turn currently. You can follow these market indicators on glassnode website or by just reading their articles. May be the things will change if the exchange reserve increases 33%+ and the 2 day pumps get close to those in Dec 2017. Then we had 66% pump from 11K to 19K-ish in 2 days, which was hardly sustainable and the weak hands got scared and started selling. With 6-7% daily pumps currently we are very far from such a scenario. But even if that happens again, it is a matter of 2-3 years max to recover and surpass the previous ATH. During that time - DCA only! It will be good enough for the next bull run, no need to be greedy and use shitcoins.

So it begins, the final approach to 100K!

My job is not well paid even for my poor country, but I have no moral right to quit. This is a dream prestigious position that I worked very hard to get. It requires talking with people mostly about computer technology and Bitcoin for 6 hours ... per week (edit: plus 5 months paid vacation per year). Yes, my bosses are idiots and they try to humiliate me in every possible way. I could become a boss too, but that would mean I have to work 8 hours per day, no thanks! But they have no idea that my wealth is equal to the yearly budget of the whole organization (which has hundreds of employees), so I am quite happy for now and gloat from the inside . But I'm thinking of finding an income on a certain island where for now I intend to spend each Summer. And at some point I can settle permanentrly with the help of the stash I have. Theoretically I could buy a small 200-500m² villa and live without an income for 2 decades, relying only on my BTC stash, but I am afraid to take any risks. Hopefully this dream will become true soon. Hitting 200-300K price target will make the things much easier for sure

Well, we have a new € ATH for today!

This is the chart of the amount of BTC held in the unmentionable exchange wallets.



For the last 24 hours the reserve decreased with another 12K BTC's.



The price theoretically can't stay below 100K for 2 years, otherwise after 2 years the traders will have nothing to trade with. And this practically means that 100K can happen in a matter of weeks. #provenbymathandscience

Edit. Only a n00b trader can see a double top with a consolidation in the 57-61K area for nearly 10 weeks. This is the opposite of what happened in 2017. Then the reserve increased with over 1mil BTC's in a matter of 3 months. And that wasn't the hodlers BTC's. Remember Wu, Ver and co. converting about that amount BTC's for their shitcoin? The good news is that this will never happen again, hence the hopes/fears of some for a similar development are vain.

Good morning WO. Yesterday I voted new ATH for today. Let's see  

There seems to be a lot of buying potential and people wanting to get in, but they are still hesitant about which direction BTC will go. All indicators show that the direction is up, so even a black swan event can not prevent this from happening in the next 2-3 months. The possible resistances IMO are 80-85K, 115-120K, 160-170K. The more sideways action with <30% dips, the farther we can go. Perhaps 333K-400K in the next 12 months, or even 500-600K are completely possible peaks (only 10x from now).

It seems that the americans are in the mood of selling in the last month. As the day develops in USA, the red hours on the unmentionable exchange are always in a row of 8-12. Which is pretty odd considering how inflatory and useless the $ is becoming each day. I really wonder how with small <1% profits or even cut losses they will cope with the inflation which is huge and perhaps heading to a hyper stage soon. Ok, go ahead, sell your 0.001BTC and feel rich   More cheap coins before the next 20x increase  

P.S. And the narrative that those stimi checks that the americans would use 10% to buy BTC, according to the surveys is just lol. It was logical and right to do, but... It turned out that not even 0.1% were used for that if we compare the volume in the last month with the previous months. Whether the "clever" americans think that BTC is now "too expensive" or just want to feel rich with that stimi checks and add to that selling with 1-2% profit their BTC stash is not clear. But it is quite "clever" indeed,... beyond comprehension.

Just waking up and my jaw dropped when I checked the chart. I didn't expect that! Well played bulls, well played! Once again the panic sellers, trolls, bears, etc. were beaten hard
 

Sell now all your 0.000001BTC. Then rebuy at 59K. Rinse and repeat!

Good morning WO! The "battle" for 60K continues, but not for long. Short-sighted daily traders don't realize what is going on and sell their last 0.0001BTC what was left from their initial 0.01BTC. However, the bigger picture is quite good with all the big investors in play. And the liquidity crisis is getting even deeper. The BTC reserve on exchanges continues its descent which started a year ago. Currently the decrease is between 25% and 33% on the various exchanges. And this is a lot! In 2 years there won't be any Bitcoins left on the exchanges, if this trend is kept. In the last 24 hours only, for example, the total reserve decreased with nearly 100K BTCs (-4% for the day). And on the biggest USA exchange it hit another low with a -10K BTCs for the day. And this happens almost every day. This is the opposite to what happened in 2017, meaning that we are at the beginning of the real mass adoption which establishes Bitcoin as the best performing asset in all times worldwide.

For us this 59-57-59 daily action is quite boring, but for the daily traders who follow the trend it is like living in a scary movie (which they put themselves into because of their stupidity). I guess they screem like little girls when selling with a "stop" loss each day, until their "stop" loss adds up to a complete loss of their resourses. I am lazy to write the code counting all their losses, but it seems that the turning point when these weak hands will be removed from the game is quite near.

Edit. I've just noticed that the volume of the latest stop loss is 4-5x bigger than the previous dips in the last days. So there is a good chance that this will be the last dip before breaking 60K and heading towards 100K in the next weeks.

Nice lil pump and back to 59K 

It seems that the bears took advantage of the weak volume and hammered the price 5%. Hopefully the damage will be repaired and 60K will be soon broken. By broken, I mean staying above 70K  

Anyway, I've been thinking recently for a tool to measure the profit/losses of the daily traders who follow the trend. It is well known that those kind of traders are 99.9% losers. I mean, for each pump, no matter how big, they make on average 1%-2% profit. While on the dumps they can't afford a 1-2% stop loss and so make on average (x/2+1)% loss, if the dump was x%. (I'll try to explain my logic below.) Thus, they theoretically are always losing in the longterm. I guess thay have the same level of math and science as proudhon and can't understand this.

If we count the last month(s) losses, we can give an estimate when they remain with 1%-10% of their initial portfolio. And that is the point when they have no power to resist the pump (like a coiled spring) and the price shoots up 20%-100%. So, whether several bigger dumps like 10%-20%-ish or multiple smaller 5%-10%-ish will lead to the same result. Since we've had several bigger dumps already, I believe that the battle for 60K will be much shorter that for 10K last year. My rough estimates show that in the next week we should reach that hot spot and break the resistance. The algo should be something like this (very rough, of course):

1. A trader buys with N amount of cash bitcoins.
2. If the prices falls x%, he cuts his stop loss on average at (x/2+1)%. The reason for this logic is that at least half of the daily trend traders bought at the top and resisted the urge to sell, when they finally capitulate at x%. And practically nobody puts a stop loss at -1% unlike the profit taking. The number of traders putting stop losses -1%-3% is also relatively small, judging by the volume of sells which increases exponentially starting -4%.
3. If the price raises x%, he sells with a 1.5% profit on average. We see clearly that in a trading without real investors, each 1-2% increase is being erased in a matter of seconds, because of this behaviour. In that case, the trader enters again later that day, or the next, believing he timed the uptrend (which in most cases occurs higher than his selling point, on average in a bull market, say +2%). And then he repeats steps 1-3.

This is an easy programming problem and the parameters can be adjusted with the help of some examples for longer battles at some resistance points. Of course, this behaviour will at some point inevitably incur the trader a loss, which will increase with time to the point of losing almost his entire initial investment. Then he either choses to enter with a new sum (believing that this time will be different and forgetting the famous saying - you can't expect a different result doing the same things over and over again), or quits trading. The only "successful" traders are those who manage to reach 2-3 successful 1-2% trades and quit. They argued and mocked the hodlers boasting with 5-10% profits around 6K-7K last year. And of course they've missed the 15x increase for the year. But the vast majority of traders are greedy, so 99.99% of them do not quit after that but continue until they lose (almost) everything.

I don't know if it is bad or good, but this is a day with a very low volume (like 2x-8x lower than the average daily in the last months):
Bitstamp BTC/USD daily volume: 1.32K BTC
Coinbase BTC/USD daily volume: 6.18K BTC
Binance BTC/USD daily volume: 38.5K BTC

Well, I guess all those that rush to sell at 59K have no laser eyes.   May be they don't believe in 100K? It is only 66.6(6)% away from 60K! Hence it may take only several days/weeks after breaching 60K to reach 100K. I remember 2 consecutive days in Dec 2017, when the price went from 11K -ish to 19600 making a 66% increase. So yeah, anything is possible.  

Geez, so many twitter accounts join the #Bitcoin BTC movement (with the red laser eyes, of course)!


https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1377289376347095045

Squawk Box
@SquawkCNBC
BREAKING: $GS will begin offering #bitcoin
 and other digital assets related investments to its private wealth management clients in the second quarter,
@hugh_son
 reports:
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1377233700283412480

Quote: "GS didn't offer bitcoins when the price was 4000 but now when the price is 57 000. Is this a part of their expertise?"