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It is obvious that shitcoins short-lived pump is stalling. A new harvest of shit-bagholders is being formed. First, they won't be willing to sell at -40% discount. Then they will be frustrated at -70%. And at -95% they will cry to return at least to -60% to invest in Bitcoin. Anyway, the next week shitcoins will be flushed and king Bitcoin will shine again with a steady growth. I expect over 70K in 1-2 weeks.
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These tables are quite confusing for me. I use only https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale where I can see 653K BTC's in Greyscale possesion. And this hasn't changed for 3 months, meaning no buying occured. Which is strange, since the other day they announced a buy for $200mil which would be 3-4K BTC but this is not visible on the chart. They also are going to buy more with $550mil in the next days/weeks. And that negarive premium - to whom are they selling those shares? |
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What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so
 people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right? it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist. In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue. The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility. Well, this is a deep question! It is related to the liquidity in terms of bitcoins. And the liquidity is related to the role of derivate exchanges and SEC decision about an ETF. In the past the US exchanges had not a good liquidity in both ways - fiat and bitcoins. Because of that, we've seen many exponential pumps like the 66% increase in 2 days in Dec 2017. And after that the opposite - 70% crash, which started a one year bear period. Now, things are much different - there is a good liquidity in terms of fiat. Elon's "test" is a rock solid proof for that. This prevents any crash bigger than 30% to happen. On the other hand, the liquidity in terms of bitcoins is bad and the trend of exchange reserve will make it much worse (which is good for the hodlers of course). But as we have seen some charts recently showing the negative role of the derivate, options, etc., there are some entities probably in USA which specialize in making profits by shorting. Just like those institutions involved in gamestop stocks shorting. They are the real threat to the price and always put traps hoping for the price to stay endlessly in some narrow range. However "their bills are made without the bartender", as we have a saying in our country. Because of the low liquidity in terms of bitcoins, the price shoots up unexpectedly at some point, liquidating all these shorts. This is the hidden reason, why SEC is against an ETF. At anytime an exponential increase of the price can happen, leaving shorting companies helpless. And they don't have friends to give them bitcoins, nor they can make a call to the chief of bitcoin and say: hey, liqudate all longs and bring us more bitcoins, like those VIP institutions did with the robinhood puppet. But let's return on the question. My observations using Glassnode is that since the peak of exchange reserve 3.03mil bitcoins on 17 March 2020, the trend is almost as a line downwards to 2.15mil bitcoins currently. This makes 29% decrease for 13.5 months, paired with a 6-7x increase of the median price. If the trend continues, in 2 years there will be almost no bitcoins on the exchanges with a 50x increase of the price. This is just extrapolating of course. In reality derivate exchanges will put multiple traps, but bitcoin will evade them much sooner than the wall street pundits believe. So, good times are coming, that's for sure. |
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This shitshow going on is so like in 2017. Average Joes who don't have the guts to buy and hodl Bitcoin see the daily shitcoin gains and think they will get rich overnight if they buy now. Because $3400 for shitcoin1 is way cheaper than 60K for 1BTC, and so on. What they don't understand is that during the night the shitcoin may lose 40% and this will be just the beginning of the end. Although some shitcoins survived one bear market, most of them didn't, so there is no guarantees it will survive again. For example shitcoin1 crashed from $1400 to $80 in 1 year. Nobody believed it will recover, but miracles happen sometimes. Will this happen again? I really doubt it.
tl;dr. Let's focus on the imminent 2-3x increase of the price, which will cross an important milestone of $100K. Will it happen in the next few weeks? Or will this shitshow delay it with several months? Anyway, it seems inevitable. Although I prefer the quick version, the longer version has a bigger chance of extending the top by another 2-3x up to $333K+, like in the second half of 2017.
P.S. It is funny that most shitcoins have 2 digit daily profits, while Bitcoin has 5% daily loss. I can only imagine the distress of the daily traders who sell with stop losses screaming like little girls. And this is happening over and over again. I don't know if this is plain stupidity or trying to profit from leveraged shorts (which is tremendous stupidity), but either way it is pathetic.
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The usual traders reaction to the news that Grayscale bought last week 4 000 BTC and is going to buy another 8 000-9 000 BTC: 1. Dump BTC price by 3% (starting from the top 59K today when the news appeared in twitter and coindesk) - check. 2. Pump shitcoins price by 10-30% - check. Meanwhile, the Canadian analog of Grayscale is filing an ETF, converting its Bitcoin trust. https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/103442/canadian-bitcoin-trust-convert-bitcoin-etf-grayscale-ninepointThe same process is underway with Greyscale, which will remove the negative premium. The question is when the first US ETF will be approved by SEC. The next possible date is around mid June for Vaneck, which probably will be postponed for November. However, I have some reasons and I won't be surprised if SEC approves it in June. Of course, later SEC will approve Greyscale ETF as well. Also, revolut is preparing bitcoin withdrawal possibility: https://www.altfi.com/article/7851_breaking-revolut-announces-bitcoin-withdrawals-in-hastily-deleted-blog-postThis will make paypal and other platforms to think about it too. |
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Can we trust Fox News?  Don’t tell me they got this rumor from WO? It started with a tweet by Alister Milne: RUMOUR: Facebook will annouce they hold #Bitcoin on their books when they release their quarterly results after trading closes tomorrow — Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) April 27, 2021 It was supposed to be a joke to see whether the market will move. It did not  Anyway, in 2.5h we will know for sure on their online presentation: https://lumen.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1448878&tp_key=6c820d0d7e |
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This Tesla's liquidity test sell is of course a cover-up for turning Q1 to profit for Tesla. But it may have a positive long term impact on the mass adoption among the institutions. Some of them are still hesitant because of the fears of liquidity issues. Even Musk at first raised a doubt about that. And of course, SEC denied ETF's mostly because of the low liquidity of the US exchanges, which makes Bitcoin volatile and susceptible to manipulations. It is like a pop quiz in school. Now everyone has a proof that the liquidity is there and every institution may sell big amounts with a little discount. So, this is another victory on the way to the first ETF's approvals later this year. But for me at least, there is another major reason for all what happened in the last 6-7 months. In the years of bear market I sometimes expressed regrets about these endless barts caused by the owners and close friends of Bitmex. I remember one post, when I said that the price would had reached 100K in no time if Bitmex didn't exist. I was opposed by r0ach, who claimed that prices above 10K are not sustainable because of the miners profits getting too high. Of course, no need to explain to the moron the elementary things. Coincedence or not, but on that very day, when CFTC accused Bitmex, the barts suddenly stopped. And since then I can't find evidence of derivate manipulation. As a consequence, Bitcoin has become less volatile which is quite appealing for the institutions and billionaires. I will go even further and say that Bitcoin won the war with the derivate manipulations and all these round numbers 100K, 1mil, etc. are just a matter of when, not if. In particular, one day the US government will decide to build and maintain a Bitcoin reserve, followed by governments and financial institutions worldwide. Just imagine that - almost everyone will prefer to receive their salaries in Bitcoin and people like mindrust will realize how big their mistake was. For how long peeps like that will keep refusing to use BTC in credit cards, paypal, amazon, etc.? One - two years max. And imagine mindrust buying satoshis at price around 1mil to be able to buy a vacuum cleaner on amazon? That will hurt a lot! tl;dr. In case there are still peeps who plan to exit with most of their stash, a word of warning: It is better to sustain a fiat/ BTC percentage and never exceed it. For some it is 1/99, for others 33/67 or even 50/50. But everything above 75/25 may and will turn into a disaster. Of course, the ratio is individual and it depends on the age and the plans. For peeps still far from a retirement 0/100 is not bad at all  |
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I really don't trust this dip to be sustainable. The bears spent too much coins trying to keep the price below 50K. This is their last chance for cheap coins. Breaking of 100K can be done in less than one month, solely by Microstrategy or Elon Musk, not to mentioln the expanding mass adoption. And currently two market indicators are raised as warning flags of an incoming bull run. First, depth charts are hugely in favour of the buyers. In Bitstamp there are over 2.1K BTC in buy orders down to 41.3K, vs 291 up to 55K. Bears are now quite pissed off by that. So much efforts in twitter fake accounts, fud, etc. and now they even can't keep the pirce under 50K!  Second, RSI (14) is the lowest in more than 9 months, so it only can go up from now. And there are countless other market indicators like the BTC reserve on exchanges which continues to decrease. The possibility of reaching 100K in the next few months is quite big, IMO. And if the ETF news comes at prices near 150-200K, that would be awesome. Gold, we are coming for you! |
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Looks like we'll be getting to that 30% correction.
So far a 25% correction at 48 338$. Is this all the bears can do? Are they out of ammo? Because if so, this will hurt them a lot in the next weeks. Below 50K is too attractive to remain longer than a couple of hours. |
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I've just bought 0.275 BTC at 53 300$. If the price doesn't fall below that (again), this anomaly will be for the first time in my life |
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Speaking of past cycles, there is something interesting I've noticed in the present bull run which resembles the 2017's bull run. We can divide 2016-2017 bull run in two parts. The first is from May 2016 to May 2017. The price increased around 600% from the average price 500$ to 3000$. At the same time 3000$ is a 300% increase from the previous ATH 1000$. Then we had 2 months sideways action in the range 10-20% below the 3K ATH. And from August 2017 to December 2017 the price increased 600-700%. And now we have exactly the same situation as in the Summer of 2017 - 600% from the base of 10K in May 2020 and 300% from the last ATH of 20K. We have already 1-2 months of sidewasy action, so it remains to be seen if the next 6 months will repeat the 2017 pattern of 600-700%. Starting from 60K that would be a top between 360K and 420K.  I can live with that I mean, literally And this time I really doubt we will see a 85% bottom from the last ATH. IMO it will be more like 35-55%-ish. |
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$4.86 billion worth of BTC positions got liquidated over the past 12 hours, and $9.12 billion if you look at all markets. That must be a new record. https://www.bybt.com/LiquidationDataI see now why some nasty bastards offered millions to buy twitter account with many followers. This was a planned attack and the n00b traders fell for it. Of course the news is fake and the market will recover quickly next week. Now the obstacles for a full-blown bull run above 100K are removed. No more high leverage longs, no more weak hands squeezing each pump. The bulls should be preparing now! |
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The unmentionable exchange BTC/€: 49 400 which equals $59 181. Just lolz This "crash" is the funniest FUD flop I've ever seen Weak hands removed, shorts/longs liqudated... Nothing can help the bull run better. I expect over 100K in 1 month |
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). I feel lucky today. Sorry ladies, but first things first. Hopefully the bulls won't let them dissapointed 
