NEW: BlackRock modifies the structure of its spot #Bitcoin ETF to allow "Authorized Participants", mainly Wall Street banks, to create new shares in the fund with cash, allowing them an exposure to #Bitcoin even without a license to own #cryptocurrency directly https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1735005414276878729I don't like this. It would be more or less like a derivative then, no? Buying pressure on the ETF can be soothed by some fiat cash, maybe printed on the spot by the friendly Fed, without backing the new shares with hard coin - which would pass the pressure on to the underlying (that is - our lil fiend, king daddy etc.) EDIT - Unless the rules force the actual ETF issuer (BlackRock) to back the new shares with hard coin - supposedly bought with the cash inflow generated by the authorized participant. However, no matter how I turn this thing in my head, it smells like a rehypothecation fest waiting to happen. From what I've read about "in kind" vs "in cash" is that "in cash" has an additional intermediary which is licenced to buy and keep in cold storage the coins ( edit: vs to use Coinbase custody). This will increase the fees, that's why Blackrock insisted on their "in kind" model. But SEC obviously insisted to add also the "in cash" option in order to include other major institutions like large banks which don't have a licence to buy and keep the coins. This has nothing to do with derivatives. Now practically everyone can participate in the ETF's, which is even better. Of course, I'm not a financial expert, I just read carefully all tweets from financial experts, which I can't trust 100% of course. SEC concerns are that there will be no way for some company to issue fake shares with no real purchase, to keep the coins in cold, instead of hot wallets, and that nobody on the chain would be able to sell customer's coins without their knowledge. All this is very positive IMO and shows the real change of SEC's attitude towards spot ETF's. ( edit: All this shows also that the SEC staff doesn't trust Coinbase being an unregulated market. In order to minimize the risk for investors, the ETF shares should rely only on licenced companies. Thus only the spot price depends on the unregulated market, which the court found as not a reason to deny spot ETF's.) The last minute ammendmets is a clear indicator that the approval will be issued in less than a month, probably around the 8th Jan 2024. Gensler last comment today seems to confirm this expectation: https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1735006033997648371 |
|
|
|
NEW: BlackRock modifies the structure of its spot #Bitcoin ETF to allow "Authorized Participants", mainly Wall Street banks, to create new shares in the fund with cash, allowing them an exposure to #Bitcoin even without a license to own #cryptocurrency directly https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1735005414276878729 |
|
|
|
|
How things have changed in just 1 year! Back then everyone but us, the seasoned hodlers, were selling. We, on the other hand, bought with all available savings and did not wait for a certain price, as some fools hoped. I bought wisely and in a few months I bought as much as I now had to sell at a 2-3x higher price to pay my share of the new appartment. When Bitcoin goes past 100K, I'll pay off the rest of the mortgage by spending a relatively small percentage of my stash. The next sales will be for furnishing and buying other properties, and again I will try to leave enough bitcoins permanently. It all boils down to 3 questions, regading selling bitcoins in the next few years, such that there is a balance between available fiat funds, real estate and bitcoin reserve:
1. Am I prepared if the bullrun peak is between 100-200K?
2. Am I prepared if the bullrun peak is between 200-400K?
3. Am I prepared if the bullrun peak is over 400K?
If the answer is YES to all questions, congratulations! However, if for some of them is NOT, that could be a problem. For example, if someone decides that the peak will be between 100 and 200K and sells too many bitcoins, there is a danger of seeing the price continue to rise, buying again at a higher price, and then an unexpected crash comes to bring it down under 100K. Therefore, one must be prepared for all scenarios, even those that seem very unlikely. It is now clear that there will be an ETF. In addition, negative factors such as market manipulations to the detriment of FTX and Binance customers' long positions are no longer present. So things are looking very good indeed and a longer and more productive bullrun can be expected.
|
|
|
|
|
It is now clear to everyone that the growth from 2021 was cut off by monstrous manipulations of SBF and his ugly girlfriend. Elon Musk's ignorant tweets and behind-the-scenes sales of large amounts of bitcoins on his side also played a negative role. Now that these things have died down, the price naturally recovers. I personally do not see any signs of manipulations that aim to suppress the price or artificially pumping it. This is very good and the market is healthier compared to previous periods 6 months before the halving.
In 2021, we thought that institutions started buying, but we were wrong. Only Michael Saylor and his company were buying, and this continues to this day. Now there is also a danger of being mistaken that institutions are starting to buy. Things happen more slowly with them than we think. The ETF needs to start working first, and then we can talk about serious investments that will reflect the price.
We are still in the buy the rumor sell the news stage. New investors hope that there will be an ETF soon and it will lead to a quick profit. However, in the world of Bitcoin, things do not happen so quickly. There will be trials that few will endure. ETFs may or may not be around soon. And even if they are, there is no way that billions will go into them from the first day. There will be some frustration and people without the right vision will sell at a loss or a small profit. I personally hope that natural growth will continue, which will turn into real demand, including through ETFs. This should lead to the usual exponential growth in 1-2 years. Good foundations have been laid and this time there may not be any manipulators to stop it prematurely. If these do appear, I think it will be priced somewhere around 150K. If there are none, the price should exceed 200K sometime in 2025. But this is just my speculation. After all, since the beginning of the year the growth has been more than 100%, so we may also witness something unprecedented - a new ATH earlier than usual, for example around the halving.
|
|
|
|
|
Well friends, my DCA days are over. It's time to start selling. I'm a little sad to spoil my stash, but it's about something important. For years I was not satisfied with the city and the institution where I work. I was recently invited to a prestigious institution with better pay and less working hours. For opsec reasons, I don't want to say what I work, I'll just say that it's a very good position, and only 1 month of working days is required per year. My work is a hobby and there is no question of retiring, because that's what I'll be doing anyway.
The city is large, with a rich history and culture, with many places for entertainment, recreation and restaurants. The people are good, cordial and I feel very well there for 1 year now. So I decided to buy an apartment. I'm putting off the idea of a house for now because I don't have that many bitcoins. My plan for the apartment is to use a mortgage, paying only 20% of the price now. It's a small percentage of my bitcoins, so I'll be able to swallow it. When the price reaches some level, I have decided to repay the entire loan by selling bitcoins, and my goal is to sell no more than 10% for the purpose. It's all worth it, because it's how I drastically change my lifestyle in the right direction. And I'm insured with my bitcoins, in case of financial difficulties to sell some more and not lose the apartment.
|
|
|
|
https://blockworks.co/news/sec-appeal-grayscale-rulingSome highlights: The SEC’s deadline to challenge the decision is Oct. 13. It can seek an appeal to the US Supreme Court — if a certiorari petition is granted — or can request an “en banc” panel of the Court of Appeals to revisit the ruling. Pantera Capital executives said in a September letter to investors last month that the Supreme Court route is unlikely, noting “this case isn’t that important as a matter of law.” If the SEC chooses not to appeal, the court is expected to issue an order detailing next steps. This could include “instructing the SEC to approve the application, or to revisit Grayscale’s application, in which case the SEC could still reject the proposal on other grounds,” according to a blog post by law firm Winston & Strawn. Compass Point Research & Trading analysts Chase White and Joe Flynn said in a Friday research note that they believe the odds of being granted an en banc hearing or a writ of certiorari are “virtually zero.” Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Sam Kerbage said during a webinar last month that the SEC requesting Grayscale to submit a new proposal and rejecting it again for a different reason is “the most likely path.” “Although our base case remains that the SEC will begin approving the ETFs by early 2024, we admit it’s only by slim margin given Gensler’s persistent anti-crypto stance,” White and Flynn wrote in their Friday note. “Still, we think that spot BTC ETF approvals are almost a certainty within the next two years given our view that the SEC has virtually no chance of winning in court when all is said and done.”
|
|
|
|
What is happening? Sunday pump? Why?  |
|
|
|
|
The new, rather premature ETF delay clearly shows the SEC's intentions to delay until the end. Apparently, they will delay the others as well, and they will try to appeal the court's decision on Grayscale, or make them file a new application and start the delays again. I honestly expected Gary to wave the white flag and give ETF in October. I thought his lawyers would say to him, "Gary, you've exposed yourself a lot, another delay or lost case won't be good for your career." But apparently his lawyers are assholes like him. However, his behavior gradually crosses the line between stupid stubbornness and pathetic oligophrenic. It was evident in his inability to answer any question in front of congress, especially when he was pressed on ethereum if it was a security, provided that months before that, he was giving interviews that it was a security. However, the money and influence of the ethereum mafia is no less weak than that of FTX, and they clearly bribed him. Why didn't Gary demand that the politicians return the money received as donations? The little woosy doesn't have balls for that. And then when he decided to blame the bankruptcy of the banks on Bitcoin, they made a laughing stock of him.
All this clearly shows that Gary is corrupt to his bones and cannot think rationally anymore. You have to be a total schizophrenic losing case after case, being humiliated in front of the whole world over and over again and still persisting with delays. He will apparently continue to try to procrastinate furthermore by appealing the court's decision and by continuing to adjourn with the same arguments, unable to come up with even one new argument. In the extensive reasons for the refusal, it seems to me that it often refers to "academic" studies and "lawyer" opinions published on the Internet. My basic check clearly shows that these are some fake sites created with free generators. There is not a single contact that verifies that real people are behind these opinions. Yes, they've taken it that far, they're shaking their pants in fear of Bitcoin. For Gary and his sock puppeteer Powell, the upcoming Bitcoin bull run is a national threat, and they are ready to act crazy until the court forces them. I even think they are so scared that at the next collapse of some crypto exchange, they will revoke all ETFs, using the occasion to their advantage. It is clear that the court will cancel this manifestation of insanity, but I would not be surprised if they resort to this option as well.
|
|
|
|
Rumor Mill: Blackrock spot ETF granted preliminary approval to move forward
SEC staff has 20-ish more days to make a decision on Grayscale ruling. What are their options? 1. To appeal - they will get one more year to delay the inevitable - approving a spot ETF. SEC's arguments are well known and they will not stand in any court. 2. To deny again Grayscale and to revoke futures ETF's on the grounds of suspected manipulations. But the futures ETF's will immediately sue SEC for unjust treatment and it is obvious that they will win. 3. To approve all ETF's at once, so that SEC won't lose another trial. SEC may also put some mild conditions as surveillance agreement for Grayscale, or an information agreement for all, which will give SEC more power to investigate fraud and manipulation. |
|
|
|
27K is back! Next goal 30K!  |
|
|
|
I keep seeing reports claiming that Blackrock is buying billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin right now. I actually hope that isn’t true because if they are and the market is still down this bad then I think that doesn’t show strong demand. With some luck they haven’t started buying yet, or the ETF approval might be a let down.
Twitter is full of n00bs and swindlers. This is nonsense which has no place in this respected thread. ETF's don't work that way. When it is approved, if someone buys an ETF, Blackrock will immediately buy and store for him/them the underlying asset, in this case bitcoins from Coinbase. Anything else is an illegal operation. Do you really believe that Blackrock or any other legal company will risk its licence buying secretly bitcoins, not declaring them to SEC, risking to lose big money because of the volatility and hopefully reselling them after the halving with a profit? This is a conspiracy theory like the flat Earth. |
|
|
|
As usual traders have no clue. I've decided to resume my DCA and postpone buying the real estate for few months. The reason is not only the good buying price, but currently I couldn't find anything near my taste and needs. I missed a lot of opportunities in 2016-2017, so I still need to grab more coins to maintain the lifestyle I desire. In general, I sell only to buy things that I need urgently and later when I got the cash savings, I aim at restoring my stash as much as possible. And to put my money where my mouth is, I've just bought with €1K. Hopefully, I will be able to do it many times until the next bull run explodes. So traders, please place every penny you have at 100x long positions! I need more of your lost money in the form of cheaper coins |
|
|
|
To me, the SEC's heavy loss in court means an almost certain approval of ETF, no matter how much clown Gary doesn't like it. The SEC must be complete morons not to draw the following conclusions. In principle, they have several options.
1. Within the period of 45 days to appeal to the Supreme Court. There, the inevitable decision will be the same, which means more financial losses, so it is completely pointless.
2. They accept the court's decision, Grayscale files again, but the SEC refuses for another reason. There will be another case and the court will make the same decision again. SEC have already put forward all possible reasons for refusal and are unable to prove them.
3. The SEC revokes the futures approval and again gives a negative decision on Grayscale. There will follow a new case from the futures companies, which will inevitably prove to the court that there is no basis for this change in the SEC's decision. So again, SEC will be forced to approve both futures and spot ETF's.
4. The SEC vacates its order, Grayscale resubmits, and within a few months, Grayscale and everyone else gets approval. This is the only sensible solution for SEC.
I think either way we will know very soon the direction the SEC is looking to take on the issue of ETFs based on decisions in the coming days: Friday Sept 1st: Bitwise Saturday Sept 2nd: BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco and Wisdomtree Monday Sept 4th: Valkyrie SourceI'd say Saturday is the big one. Bitwise to get struck down like Greyscale, as they are crypto-based companies. If any of the 2nd get approved there could be 3 days of straight bullishness leading into the 4th. I expect the decision to be announced for all of them on Friday after markets close, as usual. Normally, I would bet that there will be another delay. But there is a small possibility for the SEC to come to their senses and wave the white flag. Anyway, the good news is that insitutional money are coming after all. So, we have really the last chance to grab cheap coins before the big money arrive. I'm reconsidering my decision to buy a real estate with a morthage loan, and instead postpone it, and continue to DCA for the next couple of months at least. Seeing the price today it reminds me of the previous bear markets. Traders were happy to make stop losses or pennies at best, while one year later they would have made 15x by DCAing. So, with or without an ETF provoked pre halving bull run, the simple math proves that 100K won't be a challenge for long. Especially if proudhon reappears and makes a post that bitcoin price will never surpass 30K, proven by math and science  |
|
|
|
|
To me, the SEC's heavy loss in court means an almost certain approval of ETF, no matter how much clown Gary doesn't like it. The SEC must be complete morons not to draw the following conclusions. In principle, they have several options.
1. Within the period of 45 days to appeal to the Supreme Court. There, the inevitable decision will be the same, which means more financial losses, so it is completely pointless.
2. They accept the court's decision, Grayscale files again, but the SEC refuses for another reason. There will be another case and the court will make the same decision again. SEC have already put forward all possible reasons for refusal and are unable to prove them.
3. The SEC revokes the futures approval and again gives a negative decision on Grayscale. There will follow a new case from the futures companies, which will inevitably prove to the court that there is no basis for this change in the SEC's decision. So again, SEC will be forced to approve both futures and spot ETF's.
4. The SEC vacates its order, Grayscale resubmits, and within a few months, Grayscale and everyone else gets approval. This is the only sensible solution for SEC.
|
|
|
|
The full decision is a slaughterfest of the SEC arguments, and requires a full review of Grayscale's application.  SEC options from here on out are: 1. Delay decision and come up with new fake reason 2. Concede and approve 3. Request en banc appeal of the case. But given the grounds for the courts decision and the fact they repeatedly pointed out the failure of the Commission to back up any of its arguments an en banc appeal would be a terrible decision likely to just piss off the courts. So its a big win. https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1696535378793205821 |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
