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81  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 15, 2019, 06:51:53 PM
I know HM used to post some comparison charts before May 2016 and now. The price in 2015-2016 fluctuated between 200 and 490 (1 time for a brief period) and in the second half of this period from 300 to 430.  In terms of percentages it was roughly speaking like between 80% and 60% from the last ATH, and at the second half between 70% and 60%. In 2019 we had a journey between 80% and 30% from the last ATH. We've had some serious battle and longer stays above 50% i.e., $10K. In the last month, we fluctuated between 65% and 55% touching 50% briefly. These percentages are not exact, so one may fiddle more with them.  But my conclusion is that we are still a little bit ahead of schedule with some BIG bull sign - the 30% top from the ATH (~14K). Currently, we are 57.5% below the ATH. I personally don't think that we will fall below 60%. But even if that happens briefly, we will still have better chances to get a new ATH before the end of 2020, than at the end of 2016.
82  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 15, 2019, 11:27:32 AM
Quote
It's not the time to buy, just monitor,

I dont disagree exactly, I might be one of the most negative observers as I thought since July once we leave the direct uptrend that oh it'll go down now.   Its never that simple, its done alot since then with plenty of opportunity both directions.    
    Every time its been in this quiet phase though the price can be declining I wouldnt say its as negative as people might feel.   The dangerous point to buy is in the peak prices, people feel confident but 13k was where the worst returns were but now its far more reasonable.   What differs is the time frame people consider, any idea of buying in this environment where we track sideways and price is consolidating I think the buy has to be on a regular basis.   So a buy in November should pair with a buy possibility in April or May , just like a year ago did not appear to be the time to buy either (+ it did fall further still) but in retrospect we see most of the negative was already in the price.
   I've made this mistake before of being too negative when it was quiet and idling, if anything the averaged flat line type of action (rather then in trend moves) is just the marathon stretch to price action more then the sprint but doesnt mean BTC isnt moving forward still.

Crossing 8820 is a negative I think as its relates to ATH and top pricing in May and very roughly 2018 but better guidance near term is 50 day average.   We havent yet closed the weekly bar below 8820 since the last big rise so theres that to watch.

In early 2019 the same 'experts' said it is not the time to buy at 3100. When we were at 5K, they said: it will come back to 3100, we will buy then. At 6K: it will come back to 4k, we will buy then. At 9K: it will come back to 6k, we will buy then... Well to the surprise of all, we went to 13800. Then we went back to 7400. And they still  said it is not the time to buy. Then we had the historic 42% pump in 12 hours. Now, they say the same. My point is that obviously all these people don't have enough respect and belief in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not like some shitcoin that will certainly die in 2-3 years. Bitcoin will be still here and sooner or later the price will surpass 100K. If you don't belive that you can set a lower target - 50K, or 30K. But you have to believe. Otherwise, you have no chance in this game! And if you set your profit in terms of 5-fold, 10-fold, etc. why risking waiting for 10% drop to enter? I don't get it. Really! It is like the diet - I will start from tomorrow. And tomorrow never comes!
83  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 11, 2019, 04:08:02 PM
Someone will burn himself.... ending up with much less as they previous owned....

Let them play, let us HODL, let us all enjoy and be happy Smiley

That’s exactly what will happen mic.

It’s great when it’s working for them, selling high, buying low, increasing their stashes......until there’s a massive unexpected pump which turns into a FOMO rally & then they end up screwed Wink

I agree completely! This is the truth! There were many chances in 2018 and 2019 to increase the stash by trading. If someone used them - cudos! But most of us didn't dare to try such a thing and increased their stash only by buying. With the coming of the next halving these chances will be very limited if any at all. Look at the last crash - it was 5% but from a temporary pump, so it is effectively 1% below the steady line around 8800 from the last week. Recently we've had a 42% pump out of nowhere and Bakkt's volume is getting higher and higher. At the beginning it was 10-70 BTC, whereas now is over 1000 BTC every day. All this shows that clever investors are buying while the small fish are selling with lame 1% profit (or worse, stop loss).  

As for the bad actors on the market, there are 2 types:
1st type - The miners with huge farms with the new s17s asic miners. They would want to suppress the price so that old s11 (which are still the vast the majority of miners) are shut down because of the loss. And this break-even price is around 9K even for those with 4-5 cents per kWh. The recent drop in the difficulty shows this might be the case.
2nd type - Manipulators with bitcoins dumping on Bearstamp with the hope of bigger percentage profit on the unregulated derivative exchanges like Bitmex.

Having said that, I don't think we should despair because there is a cure for both groups.
1st type - It is better to hedge the newly mined bitcoins on bakkt rather than dumping with the hope of the difficulty drop. This is very hazardous and may bring dissapointment resulting in a bear market. Also, the halving is coming soon, and such a move can be an own goal, because if the current price is kept after the halving, even the s17's won't be on profit.
2nd type - What is the point in shorting with 1% profit when some surpise 40%+ pump erases almost half of your manipulation ability?

And finally, as hodlers, let be rational and not emotional no matter what happens! 1% drop, 40% crash, who cares! Buy moar, hodl if needed 5 years, and enjoy the fruits of your perseverance!
84  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2019, 04:19:44 PM
Inverse Ouch!
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2019, 09:28:29 PM
Another day going sideways with several upward attempts. And another day with good bakkt volume - so far 920 BTC. After the slow start, the volume increased dramatically in the last 10 days and hopefully it will increase even more henceforth. Notice that the volume chart is very similar to the price chart.



My explanation is that the price formation on the major exchanges is in a delicate balance and such volume is commensurate with half of the daily mined bitcoins. Considering that these bitcoins are bought from these exchanges and deposited into bakkt, this is breaking the balance in the right direction. The effect is like the halving already happened and nobody knows it. Short positions are vulnerable because of the scarsity and their liquidations are making the domino effect on the price. And after 6 months, when the halving happens and real FOMO starts,  nobody will be able to stop the new ATH storm! (With regard to the poll, I have the feeling that the first ATH will come around the halving.) Good times are coming for the HODLERS!  Wink
86  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 30, 2019, 12:38:56 PM
87  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2019, 11:19:40 AM
On a more sober note, I think that we underestimated the impact of bakkt on the market. Is it a coincidence that bakkt record volume 1100+ BTC was yesterday? Yes, bakkt had a slow start, but we don't know how many bitcoins are being bought/mined with the purpose of depositing in bakkt and making monthly contracts. The fact that we never had a 12 hour  42% pump in the last 8 years shows that there is something new happening right now. I don't know the reason for that pump. What I know is that the thousands bitcoins "locked" into bakkt's monthly contracts weren't abailable on the exchanges to hinder the pump. And that is something!
88  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2019, 10:18:14 AM
89  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2019, 09:21:10 AM
The last days summarized:



This is Bitcoin! This was the last fatal blow for the bears!
90  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2019, 04:39:49 AM
Jeeeeeesus Christ! What did happen during the night?!?!?!? From 7400 to 10 350 on Bitstamp (10 540 on coinbase)!!! This is  the greatest pump in less than 12 hours in the history of Bitcoin (at least for the last years). Back to bed now (fingers crossed for 15K after I wake up). LOL
91  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2019, 04:03:45 PM
Freshly saved 500 euro on its way to the exchange. To be honest, I am kind of surprised that bears tried to break the 7700 support. I don't get it why we should feel desperate with 2% drop below this support. If it is not comfirmed in the coming weeks, then all this was noise. Most TA won't even consider it as broken if it is cancelled soon. Now the support down to 7K has increased to 2700BTC in Bitstamp. This is enough to despair even the best bear manipulator in the world. It is like a street with a dead end, dear bears! You may try to break it, but the result will be broken heads  Grin The volume is low, meaning that besides the usual trades nobody is in a hurry to sell. And this is a sign of the failure of the bears, who thought with the sell of 700BTC on one exchange can bring havoc and despair. You have no good or bad news, dear bears, so your fail will be epic. 8K coming in (edited now: 2 weeks 2 days. 10K and above in the coming months days. ) Wink Cheers to the hodlers!


hahahaha

That's an interesting perspective.

I hope that you are correct.
This is my 2nd reply today, but things developed too quickly. I tried to be conservative in my forecast knowing many are going to laugh at me. But I am not surprised of this quick recovery above 8K. Not at all! Congrats to all firm hodlers once again! (Btw, I bought with that 500 euro minutes before the epic pump  Grin)
92  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2019, 03:43:46 PM
Previous support level of $7,700 breached.

The bear that tried to break the 7700 support spotted:

93  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 24, 2019, 02:07:08 PM
Freshly saved 500 euro on its way to the exchange. To be honest, I am kind of surprised that bears tried to break the 7700 support. I don't get it why we should feel desperate with 2% drop below this support. If it is not comfirmed in the coming weeks, then all this was noise. Most TA won't even consider it as broken if it is cancelled soon. Now the support down to 7K has increased to 2700BTC in Bitstamp. This is enough to despair even the best bear manipulator in the world. It is like a street with a dead end, dear bears! You may try to break it, but the result will be broken heads  Grin The volume is low, meaning that besides the usual trades nobody is in a hurry to sell. And this is a sign of the failure of the bears, who thought with the sell of 700BTC on one exchange can bring havoc and despair. You have no good or bad news, dear bears, so your fail will be epic. 8K coming in 2 weeks. 10K and above in the coming months.  Wink Cheers to the hodlers!
94  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 16, 2019, 03:59:39 PM
Hi WO Gang! I had a nasty herpes on my left eye and spent the last 2 weeks fighting with it. Fortunately, I got completely healed without any complications. The small fiat reserve which I left after the last buying of a portion of bitcoin turned out to be completely enough for the unexpected expenses (I had also 3 medical interventions on my teeth).  I am so happy to live with the expectation of the purchase at the end of each month, so I don't care how much we bleed now. Since I don't have a crystal ball to sell high and buy low, the only way to increase my stash is the famous buy and hodl! My luck is so bad, that if I sell a big amount with the hope of buying lower, it is certain that either the price will never fall below that level again or, I will become greedy and try another trade which will cancel my previous profit. (Well, it may not be only the bad luck or the curse of God, but just the human mentality which tends to become more greedy after each success.) This was tested many times in 2016 and 2017. No matter how many successful trades I made, the profit remains much lower than by just holding for the same period and not selling. Confirmed and verified!  Grin I hope we will see soon the next spectacular bull run but even if we won't, I prefer to live with a hope postponed in time, rather than to lose the hope and live in bitterness! (r0ach is exhibit A for the last type)
95  Economy / Speculation / Re: Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST on: October 05, 2019, 08:46:33 AM
$11 320
The support at $7 500 looks solid, so I think we've seen the local bottom at $7700. Besides, the majority of the traders are in some loss currently, so any other crash looks less probable now. From now on, I expect a gradual recovery above $10K. With the approaching of the halving, $10K should not tease anymore the weak hands to sell as an insurance. I expect a peak around 13K but during the holidays we usually have some 10-15%-ish correction, hence my prediction.
96  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 02, 2019, 03:34:09 PM
The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.

Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.


It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving. 


I think I already said this many times, also here on the WO.
I have a feeling a lot of people, institutional investors included, are looking at PlanB models, and probably sometimes between here and the halving we'll start seeing some kind of front running. I do agree with LFC scenario of easy 50K after halving in May20.

If the halving rally fails to materialise before or after the halving, say one year after, we still are around today's level, then we will experience a very long and cold cryptowinter II.
Institutional money, who is ready to dump a LOT of money into cryptos, see Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, high volatility asset. Something that is very precious in low volatility/negative interest rate financial environment.
If bitcoins then fails to provide those investors  with a positive return, then we we'll have a serious adoption problem posing a threat to further growth.

It is good to have a Plan B (pun intended), in case things don't go the way we expect. So, I appreciate every well informed contrarian opinion even if it's bearish. It is good to play every possible scenario. The worst you are talking about - staying at the current levels long after the halving  is only theoretically possible, IMHO. With almost all bitcoins mined and millions (probably even billions) new investors, I don't think this is a realistic scenario after 3 halvings. For example, after the one year bear market we saw a strong bull run with an increase more than 4 times, while most of the traders were still asking themselves if the 3k bottom was the last! There were no good news and the halving was a year away. This is a clear sign that 3K was not a real price but way below that price. The Summer action was also a good sign, since it showed that the exchanges have a good liquidity and can sustain 10K price. The bad news of bakkt's flop was a major blow to that support, but still the price in the next days fell only 15%, not 30%+ like in some previos bad days. So, even without institutional investors, we can expect the price will continue to grow. This will mean a 10K-ish rise of the price each year, so by 2025 we definitely should be above 50K. Then only 450BTC will be mined each day and many more will be lost, as Dabs pointed out. Again, I don't think it will be the case,  this is at least for me the worst bearish practically possible scenario. And since in the high volatile markets there are always explosive bull runs, it is highly probable that 50K will be touched much earlier.
97  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 29, 2019, 08:29:39 PM
The support at 7.5K looks pretty solid especially on Bitstamp - above 2K BTC need to be sold to get that low. It is unusually high. Typically on Bitstamp is needed 300-500 BTC to move the price by 5%. On CB it is 1.95K. And this hasn't changed since the first drop to 7.7K. May be the traders stopped selling because of this support. Now, if the bears decide to put pressure on this support, it will cost them a lot. And they risk a violent rebound above 10K, which will ruin their plan of a long suppressing of the price. What they hope is the support to dissolve itself and with much smaller sells to get there. Hopefully the bulls won't allow it. Next 7 days are critical.  Grin I would give 75% chances that 7.7K was the last bottom and we will be recovering above 9k in the next week.
98  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 27, 2019, 10:17:05 PM
This is the chart from the Summer of 2017. After the local top at 2900-ish, we had a falling wedge with a bottom around 1800 - kinda 40%-ish drop. The bull run that followed ended at 4800-ish, which is 2.66 times higher than the local bottom and 1.65 times higher than the previous ATH. After that another crash to 3K, and the rest is history. My point is that this pattern can repeat now - a bull run to 18-20K, then a crash to 12K. And after that a 6x bull run to 72K.  That's what I call hopium for the night. Going to bed now  Grin

99  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 27, 2019, 09:21:26 PM
Greta should know what she is talking about then.

Edit although apparently the above claim is a bit misleading as the father is “distantly related”.  Many Swedes are likely “distantly related” to each other. 

https://heavy.com/news/2019/09/greta-thunbergs-family-parents/

Here childhood has been stolen? nha..



This pic tells it all (Time is the best as always!):  Wink

100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 27, 2019, 12:16:20 PM
I didn't hesitate to buy with my saved salary above 10K, so now I am going to wait? No, thanks, I am directly buying. Hopefully my small 0.052BTC purchase at $7950 will trigger the next bull  run Wink Next month I will have more fiat - like 1000$, and I will buy even if we are above 10K.
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