Good mornig WO! I see that we made some good progress during the night: USD ATH Progress:  EUR ATH Progress:  |
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Make no mistake, anything above 80% from the ATH is the beginning of the attack for a new ATH! At 57 000$ it is above  BTCEUR is already at 87%. is this difference because of higher inflation in europe? Good catch, I didn't notice! It is because of the stornger EUR against USD this year compared to Nov. 2021 (almost by 10%). Surprised the EUR is stronger considering all the problems the German economy, especially, is facing. Energy supplies and governments around Europe especially forcing people to buy milk floats only made in China and doing everything in their power to stop the German car companies from having a future. Its the reverse - EUR is weaker, hence you need more Euros to buy the dollar equivalent, hence it appears closer to the ATH. To be honest trying to compare the fine details of the price over a several year time gap is a bit futile anyway, so much has happened - inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuations its not really like for like. Just enjoy the ride! You are right. I was too hasty and didn't think. |
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Make no mistake, anything above 80% from the ATH is the beginning of the attack for a new ATH! At 57 000$ it is above BTCEUR is already at 87%. is this difference because of higher inflation in europe? Good catch, I didn't notice! It is because of the stornger EUR against USD this year compared to Nov. 2021 (almost by 10%). |
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Make no mistake, anything above 80% from the ATH is the beginning of the attack for a new ATH! At 57 000$ it is above Celebrating this fact, I'm sharing my experience. When I heard for the first time about Bitcoin, the price was around 200$. I used some faucets to get free Bitcoins. I regret that it took me almost 2 years to realize the potential of Bitcoin. In 2017 there were so many bad events which scared me a lot to invest heavily - China's ban, etf denial, the forks, etc. And the price was increasing so rapidly more than 20x for a year, that I literally couldn't find time to investigate the exchanges, to make a cold wallet, to know the dangers of USDT and avoid it, so on. I was cautious and nobody can blame me for that. Despite all this, I started investing and converting the mining reward from 700$ to 3800$, when I formed the main part of my stash. I continued to DCA until recently. I wish I had made this decision a year earlier. Now I would have had hundreds of Bitcoins. But it is what it is. I am happy with what I have accompilshed so far. Thanks to Bitcoin I was brave to find a great city with a better job. I have to go to work for 4 hours only 30 days per year. And this is in one of the most developed cities I've ever seen. I bought with a bank loan a nice appartment, computer and other stuff. Now I can sit and wait for 100K+ to pay off my mortgage with a smaller part of my stash. And the good part is that nobody knows I'm rich. I don't parade with that. But I can afford any restaurant, hospital, etc., which is great. It is funny, because people tend to think that rich guys have limos and big houses. The merchants are so annoying to offer me always the cheapest product, losing my time. I often interrupt them and say, "OK, skip to the most expensive product, provided it has a real quality." And all this is because of Satoshi! |
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only +27% left for a new ATH
I prefer the traditional method - from the ATH instead from the current price. At 54 500 we are 79% from the ATH:  It would be nice someone to make such a gif using api from some exchange to see with time how this percentage fluctuates. |
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I have no doubt that 60k will come this week... and we would break the pattern if the ATH comes before the halving... In this case, breaking the pattern, I ask the more experienced here: What would be the thesis of identifying the target? since we would only have psychological targets... I know that no one has a crystal ball, but I wanted to know, if possible, what yours theory is.
In the bear market, I used partial purchases on a 50% price drop to take advantage of a possible pullback... and then larger entries on a 70-75% price drop from the ATH
However, I still feel a little unsure about identifying the target, I know that the best way is to gradually go out at the average price.
Unfortunately, or fortunately (depends on your point of view) I still need to use position trade to be able to build capital.
You should ask JJG about that. |
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I think it’s maybe a good idea to set yourself a fiat value in sales and then try to hit that, rather than a certain amount of bitcoin you sell. How much fiat do you need to satisfy your needs for the next four years (from end of 2025) until we get ready to do it all again.
So, you are following a different path from JJG, which is primarily focused on the BTC part of the stash. Of course, the selling is activated by triggering some fiat-denominated values. But I guess it is a consequence, rather than the trigger. I tend to believe in the case of USD debasement you could sell too early. As always, the Wall Observer will be a fun place to see the wild emotions of fellow bitcoin bros.
As always. We are here for this, after all. I think the 4-year cycles will be more and more subdued as time goes on. Going from 3.125 to 1.5625 isn't like going from 25 to 12.5. Proportional effect isn't applicable IMO: the ratio of "new" to "old" bitcoin does matter, and I believe the effects of halvings will get negligible (close to zero) long before that ratio goes to zero. I've said this before, long before (and therefore independently from) the ETFs. But the introduction of spot ETFs will, in my scenario, act as an additional stabilizer, leveling out the big halving waves even more than they would have on their own. At first glance your logic explains the diminishing bull cycles. But in fact it is totally erroneous. The mining reward only indirectly affects the price. The price is not a function of the mining reward. The price is a result of the balance of supply and demand on the spot market. It is so delicate that even a butterfly can tip it on one direction or another. And that butterfly is definitely the mining reward among other complicated news and factors. Here is where you make a mistake - you don't take into account the price at each halving! In 2020 the price was about 9 000$. If for a day approximately 1800 bitcoins were mined, this means that the 9000x1800=16 200 000$ were needed to buy the bitcoins from the miners per day before the 2020 halving. After the halving the sum is reduced in half, i.e. 8 100 000$. Now, the price is around 52000$, so 46 800 000$ are needed daily. And after the halving the sum will be 23 400 000$. So, in the previous halving the market needed 8 100 000$ less to buy the miner bitcoins, and after the next halving it will need 23 400 000$ less. This is nearly 3x bigger number, so the effect on the market will be 3x stronger than in 2020. This doesn't mean that the bull cycle will be a function of this parameter and be 3x bigger. It just means that the role of the halvings on the market won't diminish with time. Now the percentage of institutions holding bitcoins is rapidly increasing thanks to the spot ETFs. This is the reason why 2 months before the halving the price is at 77% from the ATH. This is far more than at the previous halvings. For example, for nearly a month the combined ETF net inflows are above 100 000 BTC which is much more than everybody expected. The OTC desks are literally empty and have to purchase from the spot exchanges each day. And the things will get even better, when Greyscale outflows stop. |
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Speaking of riches, the funny thing is that no matter how much one has, there is still big enough boat to spend on it all the riches. With the exception of few people on Earth that have >> $5 bil. That's filthy rich for me.
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The good news is that Grayscale outflows are slowing down. The bad is that the net balance is negative 4 days in a row (although we don't know iShares inflows for 26th). More importantly, 18K bitcoins have beed added to the total of 637K BTC (to all companies inc. Grayscale), compared to the start of the ETF's when Grayscale had 619K BTC. This is for 2 weeks. In comparison, after the halving 450x14=6300 BTC will be removed in sell pressure each 2 weeks. Of course, there are no guarantees that this trend will be kept for long, especially once the price starts to climb up. But if it is kept long enough, then the supply shock will be spectacular.   |
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Grayscale deposited 14,487 $BTC($579M) to #CoinbasePrime and 4,750 $BTC($189.8M) to new wallets again 10 mins ago. #Grayscale has deposited 93,700 $BTC($3.85B) to #CoinbasePrime since the #ETF was passed. And currently holds 519,399 $BTC($20.84B). https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/1750167124150993345https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale----------- The question no one is raising is whether the transfer of Bitcoins from Grayscale to Coinbase Prime constitutes a mandatory sale, and what type is it? To the best of my knowledge, coinbase prime is not an exchange in its own right, but rather a licensed custodian and seller of bitcoins. They use several exchanges when selling and buying, I guess Coinbase, Kraken, etc. We see 15K bitcoins going into coinbase prime every day. But are they all for sales? It strikes me that since the drop below 40K the trading volume on Coinbase is quite low - about 25K bitcoins in 24 hours, something that was before the ETF. This means that no major selling has actually occurred from Coinbase Prime. Whether the ETF allows to request a limit sale - at a certain price, I do not know, I have never worked with an ETF. Or, there is a possibility that they are not currently for sale, but that Grayscale expects such sales in the coming days and is preparing. There is also a considerable part transferred to new addresses. What's going on with Grayscale is suspicious, to say the least. Apparently they are trying to lie to the SEC that Genesis is not bankrupt by inducing sales to cover their liabilities. Whether they will succeed is rather doubtful. Practically every company which went bankrupt - FTX, Alameda, etc., was involved with Grayscale, to say the least. Some even claim that they went bankrupt thanks to Grayscale and Genesis in particular. Everything is described in detail in this long thread: https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1721385528510251182 . At any moment, the SEC could end its investigation and charge them with fraud and manipulation and shut down their company and their ETF. Maybe that's why Barry is keeping quiet and letting the bitcoins drain from his trust. Coinbase is the custodian for 8 out of the 10 ETFs, so little surprise that they don't move money between their own accounts on the blockchain. For the other stuff to be true Coinbase needs to directly collaborate with DCG on an obvious scam that a 5yr old can prove, so extremely unlikely. Another well known twitter acount on this topic: Wrote about the FTX bankruptcy estate position and sales yesterday. Mainly how they were likely impacting more than just $GBTC. Also. Everyone was fixated on FTX in the last week as *THE* seller of $GBTC shares. The largest "known" holder of GBTC is actually DCG itself. I'd honestly be surprised if DCG hasn't been part of this GBTC selling. Probably other institutions in very similar situations  https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1750262532500062242 |
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At any moment, the SEC could end its investigation and charge them with fraud and manipulation and shut down their company and their ETF.
Or, maybe you just make s-t up...I wonder what is more likely? Well, be angry with the authors of twitter threads who expose fraudsers and have facts. But it is easier to bury your head in the sand and deny all, I guess  |
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Grayscale deposited 14,487 $BTC($579M) to #CoinbasePrime and 4,750 $BTC($189.8M) to new wallets again 10 mins ago. #Grayscale has deposited 93,700 $BTC($3.85B) to #CoinbasePrime since the #ETF was passed. And currently holds 519,399 $BTC($20.84B). https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/1750167124150993345https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale----------- The question no one is raising is whether the transfer of Bitcoins from Grayscale to Coinbase Prime constitutes a mandatory sale, and what type is it? To the best of my knowledge, coinbase prime is not an exchange in its own right, but rather a licensed custodian and seller of bitcoins. They use several exchanges when selling and buying, I guess Coinbase, Kraken, etc. We see 15K bitcoins going into coinbase prime every day. But are they all for sales? It strikes me that since the drop below 40K the trading volume on Coinbase is quite low - about 25K bitcoins in 24 hours, something that was before the ETF. This means that no major selling has actually occurred from Coinbase Prime. Whether the ETF allows to request a limit sale - at a certain price, I do not know, I have never worked with an ETF. Or, there is a possibility that they are not currently for sale, but that Grayscale expects such sales in the coming days and is preparing. There is also a considerable part transferred to new addresses. What's going on with Grayscale is suspicious, to say the least. Apparently they are trying to lie to the SEC that Genesis is not bankrupt by inducing sales to cover their liabilities. Whether they will succeed is rather doubtful. Practically every company which went bankrupt - FTX, Alameda, etc., was involved with Grayscale, to say the least. Some even claim that they went bankrupt thanks to Grayscale and Genesis in particular. Everything is described in detail in this long thread: https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1721385528510251182 . At any moment, the SEC could end its investigation and charge them with fraud and manipulation and shut down their company and their ETF. Maybe that's why Barry is keeping quiet and letting the bitcoins drain from his trust. |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.  Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive? Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount) All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity. EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT. Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha. Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern. The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise). After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet. I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic. <snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees? Well: 1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money. 2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out. 3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?
Well, your logic is like the principle buy low sell high. Sounds true, but in reality most of the daily traders do the opposite. Trying to defend Greyscale leadership is pointless. They prefer to take the big money now, rather than to try to keep their clients. And definitely they are not caring what damage this will inflict on the price. Btw, there are some good explanations for what's going on, like this one: "Note: the more we think about it and talk to ppl, prob only a small minority of the GBTC outflows are likely going to the Nine right now as much of it was FTX and traders who arb-ed discount. Also the proportionality of the flows to the size of the firm is almost perfect, indicating flows due to reach/distribution/hustle." https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1748696162725458229It seems that others think in the same way: https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/17496903145695027251) The reason for #Bitcoin's recent drop in price, despite the ETF floodgates being opened, is directly related to GBTC redemptions by bankruptcy estates such as FTX. And the reason GBTC is held by so many companies in bankruptcy is directly tied to the fraud by @BarrySilbert 2/ Despite many conflicts of interest @BarrySilbert encouraged lending to companies performing the ill-conceived GBTC arb trade because this increased the assets under management at his portfolio company Grayscale. 3/ In another case, DCG (which @BarrySilbert is CEO of) owed Bitcoins to its other child company Genesis ( now also in bankruptcy) and instead of paying Bitcoins he paid with GBTC, which DCG was loaded to the gills with. Genesis will now also need to liquidate its GBTC. 4/ This mess is going to take some time to unwind (don't worry, it eventually will). No one is more responsible and deserves more blame for this mess than @BarrySilbert. He is now under investigation by several regulatory bodies and law enforcement agencies. 5/ I wrote a long thread explaining the details of @BarrySilbert's fraud and the GBTC arb trade that ended up toppling several companies in this very long tweet thread: https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1721385528510251182 |
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Yea....so what if others pick it up and more. This trade is too simplistic to be true (on balance). I don't give a hoot how much they sell as long as they match the underlying. As of 19th GBTC had BTC566,973 in the fund, the claim that they lost BTC18,3k today, and the days isn't even over, is hard for me to believe but would be nice to see, pull that band-aid off already! Where the 534 000 BTC number came from i couldn't follow at all  percentage of dormant bitcoin in GBTC would be interesting to speculate on, but they've been seeing average outflows of about BTC12k per trading day, so at this rate about 46 more trading days until they hit 0. And that's the root of the problem, market doesn't believe that others are picking it up and more Bloomber
Crypto Funds Saw Outflows Last Week After Debut of Bitcoin ETFs
Global demand for cryptocurrency investment products eased last week, with funds seeing $21 million in outflows, according to a report from CoinShares.
This doesn't line up with my numbers, but after reading into it i realized that they're talking about all crypto (including shitcoins) but according to their source bitcoin only outflow is even worse at $-24,7MM they only have $656MM inflow under "Other" category which i couldn't really follow When I wrote this post on https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50 there was data for 21th Jan, showing 14K outflow to 552K BTC. Later they deleted it and now it shows 566K. May it was a mistake, since 21st was Sunday. Tomorrow we will know what are the outfolws for today. |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care. Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive? Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount) All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity. EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT. Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha. Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern. The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise). After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet. I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic. <snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees? Well: 1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money. 2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out. 3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick? Well, your logic is like the principle buy low sell high. Sounds true, but in reality most of the daily traders do the opposite. Trying to defend Greyscale leadership is pointless. They prefer to take the big money now, rather than to try to keep their clients. And definitely they are not caring what damage this will inflict on the price. Btw, there are some good explanations for what's going on, like this one: "Note: the more we think about it and talk to ppl, prob only a small minority of the GBTC outflows are likely going to the Nine right now as much of it was FTX and traders who arb-ed discount. Also the proportionality of the flows to the size of the firm is almost perfect, indicating flows due to reach/distribution/hustle." https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1748696162725458229 |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care. Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive? Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount) All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity. EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT. Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha. Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern. The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise). After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet. I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic. With yesterday's outflow, GBTC have sold 51 000 coins, which is 8.2% of their initial holdings. It is quite possible this will continue at least for a week. Most probably until either they lower the fee, or lose all their customers. Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees? This is a rhetorical question of course. Until this issue is resolved there will be some volatility. And a possibility for some pre halving big dump like in 2020. Don't forget that the traders are stupid. If there are 100 good news and only 1 bad news, they will still dump. Eventually, the price will reflect the supply shock and ETF's probably will have a major influence for that. |
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