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581  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: December 25, 2023, 01:48:55 PM
it's interesting how sometimes the same thing (money) can be a blessing and a curse
for some people money can solve problems, they can use it to build things that will help not only them but the whole world
for others money can be a curse and they won't be able to update their mindset on deserving it and will end up losing or spending it all...
That’s just the way of life that we found our self, almost everything that we see that have an advantage also have a disadvantage the only thing their now is how the person who have access to that makes use of it, many people who are wealthy all they think is how to spend the money and make history why some people who are not privileged enough to have that money are working so hard every day to try and achieve just a little of what the rich are using to gamble every single day without even feeling it that a penny left their wealth.

exactly
yin and yang
things have many sides, usually even more than two
if somebody is gambling every single day they should probably take a break and find ways to stop once in a while and rest, do other things

it's really important to pay attention to the things we do daily.
582  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Existe um modelo que pode prever o preço do bitcoin? Veja como funciona on: December 25, 2023, 01:33:35 PM
Eu sempre fico pensando ''no meu julgamento'' vs ''a realidade''. Por mais que eu achei absurdo das memecoins, é pra onde vai uma parte do dinheiro. Então eu começo a pensar que não deve ser tão absurdo assim.

<...>

Perguntar alguém: matavas por um milhão? Talvez a maioria dizia que não.
Mas se perguntares: está aqui uma memecoin, onde podes ganhar um milhão, roubando 1$ de milhares de pessoas, queres? Muitos, já vão dizer, bem é só 1$ a cada um, ninguém fica muito mais pobre, mas eu fico muito rico. Aceito.

que exemplo descabido joker
me parece que qualquer pessoa sã diferenciaria matar e roubar 1 usd de várias pessoas (seja 1 milhão ou dez milhões ou mais) em seu compasso moral

além disso, ninguém é obrigado a comprar uma memecoin, a pessoa vai lá por vontade própria e compra provavelmente pela possibilidade de ganhar algo mas sabendo que pode perder tudo... ou só pela zoeira mesmo...
583  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Existe um modelo que pode prever o preço do bitcoin? Veja como funciona on: December 23, 2023, 11:16:30 AM
uau, fazia um tempo que não ouvia falar de stock to flow
tenho ouvido mais de MVRV

o willy woo que já mencionei aqui pelo menos 693 vezes tem um site maneiro com vários indicadores que da pra acompanhar para quem gosta desse tipo de dado
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/

o rationalroot também tem um modelo bem interessante de visualizar o preço circularmente que costuma prever bem topos e fundos dos ciclos

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1737415337182695728/photo/1

584  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Falha de segurança atinge a Ledger on: December 23, 2023, 11:02:10 AM
o que foi bizarro é um dev sozinho com acesso à uma dependência específica conseguir afetar tantos dapps ao mesmo tempo... bem problemático e espero que gere uma nova onda de mudança para proteger frontends.
A internet é muitas vezes mais frágil do que imaginamos.

Lembra aquela imagem:



Nesse caso foi um ataque direto a lib da Ledger, mas a maior parte da internet usa bibliotecas open-source de um único dev e nem mesmo verificam o seu source code em caso de updates silenciosos. Um dev malicioso e... Tongue

uau
nunca tinha visto e achei sensacional haha, obrigado por compartilhar
lembra onde viu essa pela primeira vez?


agora, a forte ironia do destino foi:
aparentemente o hacker trocou os 500-600k roubados por USDT
aí a tether foi lá e congelou os fundos

game over

o que foi bizarro é um dev sozinho com acesso à uma dependência específica conseguir afetar tantos dapps ao mesmo tempo... bem problemático e espero que gere uma nova onda de mudança para proteger frontends.

Essa parte da história não tinha visto ainda. Realmente uma grande ironia!
Mas se pensarmos, grande parte das grandes invenções foram realmente dadas por algumas poucas figuras proeminentes. Claro que depois vai tendo várias outras juntas suportando o desenvolvimento. Mas no geral é realmente uma pessoa fora da curva que bagunça tudo, faz coisas impensáveis e ousa. Acho que o caso dos devs assim.

Um dev bem focada e com motivações pessoais fortes > 100 devs de uma empresa mais ou menos com chefes que odeiam.

isso me fez pensar quem veio primeiro, a ledger ou a trezor, então fui perguntar pro gpt:

Quote from: chatGPTézio
A Ledger e a Trezor são duas das primeiras empresas a desenvolverem carteiras de hardware para armazenamento seguro de criptomoedas, e ambas surgiram em um período relativamente próximo. A Trezor foi lançada em agosto de 2014, enquanto a Ledger lançou seu primeiro produto, o Ledger Nano S, em julho de 2016.

Portanto, a Trezor foi a pioneira, lançando seu produto alguns anos antes da Ledger. Ambas as empresas têm desempenhado papéis significativos no fornecimento de soluções seguras para armazenamento de criptomoedas, e desde então, novos concorrentes entraram no mercado com produtos semelhantes.



E é por isso que carteira fria é pra ser fria, depositar e sacar apenas.

típico pensamento de quem não usa nem entende dapps  Wink

Está a cada dia mais difícil em confiar numa carteira de criptomoedas que seja segura. Parece paranoia minha, mas a cada dia que passa, estou limitando cada vez mais minhas transações. Raramente ando a fazer algum trade, mesmo que seja uma boa oportunidade. Não sei onde isso vai parar.


Nao è paranoia, è perigo mesmo.

Esta sendo quase mais seguro e fácil fazer um cold Storage apropriado sem hw Wallet. Esses aparelhos nasceram para agilizar a segurança mas pelo visto nao estão 100% conseguindo com tanta função extra.

uma alternativa simples de implementar apesar de dar um trabalhinho dependendo do nível que vc quiser fazer é usar o framework do 6529 (postado no twitter)
usa uma carteira para itneragir com dapps e outra separada como vault (pode ser multisig ou não) que nunca conecta em nenhum dapp.

o comentário do Ninja é bom, se alguém quiser conferir o sistema do 6529 que comentei tá aqui:
https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1604486523772178435

e tem mais aqui:
https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1677019020002770944
https://twitter.com/tropoFarmer/status/1547330303642968064

Depois dessa falha e tambem depois do hack dos dados no ecommerce deles, nao sei como a Ledger continua conseguindo existir...

pq ainda tem pouca concorrência em termos de opções no mercado




Eu tive conhecidos que entraram no leak do ecommerce, garanto que nao foi nada bom (me contaram que receberam muito phishing articulado). Eu entendo que nao sao lixo, mas fizeram erros muitos pesados pra ser produtores de hw wallet.

Também tive amigos que receberam e-mails estranhos depois da invasão do Banco de Dados da Ledger. Como moravam no Brasil, não deram muita importância para os tais e-mails recebidos. Muitos eram escritos em outra língua. Não sei se era Russo ou Ucraniano. Parece que eram escritos naquele alfabeto cirílico.

Eu recebo muito phising tb...
Nunca clico em nada
Esse meu e-mail do forum  é um mar  de spam. Raramente vem email legit

aqui também mas ainda tenho que fazer o filtro entre o que é golpe e o que é legitimo, de repente 2024 é o ano de mudar as coisas importantes pra outro email pq tá brabo...

585  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: December 23, 2023, 10:46:28 AM
do you think some people can get to gambling too because they have too much disposable income and don't think they deserve all the money they got?
could be a thing too imo.

having a support network definitely helps a lot.

This could also be it, there are people who are very wealthy like they made their money out of no where, either they made it illegally or base on inheritance some of them just see their self that they don’t suffer for the money and as such they should spend more on gambling to see if they can either win more money from trying out their luck or if they can just make the casino more richer.

Some people end up spending more money and getting more addicted to gambling as a result of them being busy trying to prove to others that they can be able to make it out from no where I mean those already made kids who did not suffer for anything they try to make use of the money in their possession to gamble and see if they can make some large winning and make sure they win something out for them self which they end up not even winning a penny instead they still wasteful gamble with the little in their possession.

it's interesting how sometimes the same thing (money) can be a blessing and a curse
for some people money can solve problems, they can use it to build things that will help not only them but the whole world
for others money can be a curse and they won't be able to update their mindset on deserving it and will end up losing or spending it all...
586  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: December 23, 2023, 10:35:58 AM
I'm not really a fan of superstition so I don't agree that it helps you in a karma way to tip the people near you when you hit a win, all slots are programmed to do the same thing and the probability that they have in there are all the same, unless the machine Gods and machine spirit is real, then those stuff can't be true about slots and if they're true then you're still fucked because you're the unlucky one.
I remember that, 15 years ago, when I played Second Life (beautiful memories) there were slot machines in some lands I frequently visited, and that I gave them a try. I think that they were badly programmed, because the more I played, the more I won, which is not sustainable for the service provider.

It is true that, as Lindens (the in-game currency) were difficult to buy at that time, I had just a few bucks, so I didn't make a great profit. Chances are that for higher amounts the outcome would've been different, or they were simply bad programmed. But it was a long time ago and I don't think modern slots online have that kind of flaws.
Wow, Second Life is that old? I just see their ads recently and didn't know that they're that old. Haven't played it long enough to explore it, just do some chats with other players and some trolling and that's about what I did there and finally just dropped playing it. That slot machine wins is definitely a programming bug, it's most likely as you've suspected.

interesting comment
reminds me of the small tale about the fortune goddess that I don't remember all the details

but searching for it lead me to this wikipedia page on Fortuna, the roman goddess of chance, luck and fate (Tyche in the greek myths)
which is interesting as well

Tipping can be fan and make you and the people who receive it feel good too so sometimes, why not?
587  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Google aceitará anúncios de Bitcoin e criptomoedas apartir de 2024 on: December 23, 2023, 10:25:34 AM
Jogos de azar não podem anunciar no Google
https://support.google.com/adspolicy/answer/6018017?hl=pt-BR

Se você coloca um link pra um casino, seu site é penalizado no SEO do Google.

Testei aqui e parece que o Google aceita:


Ok, corrigindo
Aceita com limitações.

Os que anunciam no forum, em geral não conseguem anunciar no google.  Testei alguns e não vi link patrocinado deles...

É mais barato anunciar no forum. E mesmo que o valor de investimento seja mais ou menos o mesmo, a concorrência é menor.
Além disso, os anunciantes no forum, tem um publico alvo muito especifico: quem tem cripto para gastar.

o ponto é esse, só faz sentido anunciar aqui pq o LTV e o ticket médio de uma base de clientes vinda do bitcointalk será bem mais alto que de outros lugares.
Pq se vc for pensar em público potencial o alcance do fórum é absurdamente menor que o do google e do meta.

anunciante quer retorno sobre investimento, seja no curto ou no longo prazo
588  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Jovens podem injetar até US$ 225 bilhões em criptomoedas on: December 22, 2023, 01:19:39 PM
Sabia que o tópico era seu só de ler o título
(To pelo celular)

Já vi algumas estimativas interessantes de que só uma parte das heranças recebidas pela galera de 20-30 anos quando os pais falecerem ja seria suficiente pro preço do btc crescer x%
Nao lembro os dados exatos faz mt tempo que vi mas era alguma conta do twitter tipo o moonoverlord
Me parece bem plausível
589  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How do casino owners benefit from creating multiple casinos? on: December 22, 2023, 01:09:04 PM
I can probably reutilize the engines and some of the software but you know one thing that you will probably need? Liquidity. Some say this is the biggest bottleneck for casinos to scale up, invest more and reach more players. I’d be really curious to know and to hear more on that… interesting topic
590  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Google aceitará anúncios de Bitcoin e criptomoedas apartir de 2024 on: December 22, 2023, 12:53:18 PM
Alegotardo. Seu comentário me fez pensar em algo
Agora que as casas de apostas de jogos esportivos não são mais ilegais no Brasil, é permitido anunciar no google? Se não me engano sim, e entendo que o google tem suas próprias regras independente da lei local mas fico curioso de entender melhor
591  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: December 22, 2023, 12:26:45 PM
Slot games must be used as a place to have complete fun and never hope that you will win the match, slot games must be treated like that, because if considered as a place to make a profit, it is like betting on sports or cards.

I agree with you that slots are a game that will definitely make you lose, and it is true that people will lose more in slot games, that is a certain thing, in any casino because the system is the same, so losing is something you have to accept, budgeting Money is of course money that you have to be prepared to lose, and never want it back, because that will only increase your losses.
Of course, all forms of gambling must be used as entertainment and just for fun, but we also have to have the right strategy and analysis. It's true that slots mostly just rely on luck, but for me it's also important that we use strategy in slot games because the slot system usually doesn't give you consecutive wins. That's why every time we win, we have to move to another slot.

Because slots I know it's crazy how quickly your money disappears no matter what game you play unless you hit the jackpot. But if we have a strategy, maybe we can minimize losses. My strategy in slot games is I take a budget. If I lose, I lose. If my budget reaches 3X, I'm done or move to another slot. You can't win all the time but you can increase your chances by using strategy, and that makes your slot games much better and walk away with more money than before.

Yes. Some people will find an edge or get really luck and consistently win over the house longterm but these are totally outliers. Not common to see this kind of thing. Usually most will lose to the house or to other players in the long run
The sad and bitter truth
592  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Most gamblers do not believe they can consistently make money, that's why... on: December 22, 2023, 11:43:47 AM
Knowing our limits and controlling our emotions are the best things to do when gambling. We have to note that gambling doesn't give us money in real life but just experience, happiness, and sadness. If can do this, then I could say that nothing bad happened to us. Winning is not as easy as most people think and from the word itself - gambling means the results are uncertain (whether lose or win). Unfortunately and a very sad thing to hear many people gamble because of aiming to win the jackpot prize, not by making themselves enjoy the moment. We hope that they will realize it and know the meaning of gambling rather than chasing their luck and losing more.
True. Winning is a rare thing to happen for every gambler. Uncertain and mostly losses. I think I have made enough bets in casino games that I could say I've lost more of it than winning. It's not even near 20 percent of wins on my total amount of bets.
Well, trying to win the jackpot is also fun stuff. Before I was playing 3 lines only in a slot original game Tome of Life and I had my best moment on that game too. My largest multi-win was x1500 and I was so happy that I even shared it in the chatbox and most of them were surprised because that is too rare to happen. Then, I got another x500 which made me happier and after that, I only tried to lose 100 more bets before I withdrew everything.
It's a super lucky day for me that I cannot forget, but when I go back there and try it one more time, I cannot do it again. Most of the time it's a losing streak of like 50 bets without a hit and if ever it gives back it's not even 50 percent of what I lost.
The online gambling system has its own way of taking back from us. We won't mind the slow loss but if we add them all, the sum could be near what we have won recently.

Probably the best way to go is choosing games where you can have some kind of edge. Even if a small one
Usually these are skill games like poker or even sports betting
Consistently betting on things like plinko or slots is a recipe for disaster
593  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Google aceitará anúncios de Bitcoin e criptomoedas apartir de 2024 on: December 21, 2023, 05:47:45 PM
Não sei se voces viram mas os comerciais institucionais ja começaram, a bitwise lançou o primeiro falando do seu futuro etf e na sequencia a hashdex lançou o dela e então a bitwise já rebateu com outro. O google ainda deve ganhar muito com essa liberação dos anúncios nesse momento.

https://coinpaprika.com/news/etf-applicants-roll-out-bitcoin-ads/

Quanto será que esses grandes portais de noticias investem em midia paga? Me pergunto isso
Existem alguns players do mercado digital que investem mais de 8 digitos no ano em mídia. Talvez alguns cheguem em 9 (100 milhoes de reais) mas não tenho certeza
594  Other / Off-topic / Re: Do you regret also for ever knowing about gambling? on: December 20, 2023, 12:46:04 PM
I don't know about other gamblers but there are sometimes that I regret why I ever involved myself with gambling, usually when I make crazy loses that I didn't actually plan for. I'm not an addict but we all know that even as a responsible gambler, there are times that you'd just go off your usual gambling ways and start gambling wild, this doesn't make you an addict though. So whenever I find myself in this state and then on the process loses a huge amount, I usually start regretting the reason I learned how to gamble.

have you ever lost money you couldn't afford to loose like getting a loan to gamble or something like that?
this is probably the most dangerous behavior
otherwise your max loss will be the amount you deposit in the platform, could be bad but not so hard to avoid ruin with a bit of self control (I know that this is the tricky part)

I think 70% of most gamblers would have done something like that, or I mean using loans as an alternative when they run out of money to gamble and then going back to hope for the next session using the money from the loan, of course I would agree with your idea that this is not the best alternative when running out of money but I think this is more referring to the occurrence of many new problems that are certainly dangerous for their own lives.

If there are some of them who always can't change their point of view and approach to gambling then obviously other bad effects will follow such as experiencing a lot of pressure to stress and depression due to debt, one that can minimize everything is just self-control and some limits as you said but unfortunately it is quite difficult to be able to implement that if from the beginning they come with the wrong mindset and goals on gambling.

that's a quite high estimative, I'd guess max 25% getting to compulsive habits and doing something like that, most probably max 10%
I'd guess the majority of gamblers are occasional gamblers or people who gamble for fun but now compulsive, doing it as a play and not carrying so much.
but obviously there are the ones who get addicted to it.
595  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: [30 merits] Concurso de Natal Bitcoin talk on: December 20, 2023, 12:21:31 PM
caraca, muito sensacional! hahahaa
queria ter mais merits pra somar na prize pool mas to só com 5

adorei a primeira entrada do bing do TryNinja e ri com as do darkv0rt3x também
a ideia de misturar dois animais em um usando AI é muito boa!

EDIT: sobre o bing, sim ele usa o Dall-e (mas acho que não a ultima versão), também acho ele ótimo, só pra imagens ultrarealistas me parece que o Midjourney é melhor...
596  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: December 20, 2023, 12:08:46 PM
~snip~
is this normal behavior on your kindle for ALL books or only the ones bought on kindle store?
it never happens here... but 98% of the books I read there are pdf I uploaded to the kindle (it's funny how you can find most of the existing books online somewhere)

almost no ads popping up for me on kindle...

Ah right, you might be on to something here...

It's been a while since I last finished a book on Kindle, but it was most probably a book that I got from Amazon directly, so they suggested me to buy some other ones based on that title.

Maybe they are not "allowed" to read the pdfs are get the information from that book, and therefore they can't make suggestions on that.

Or maybe they have turned that aggressive behavior a bit down lately...

I've been using kindle for some years (2 or 3 not sure) and mine was always like that
I think you're right about they not including ads inside the pdfs, but I'm sure that if there was an opt out from customized ads I'd opt out.

"At least let me choose my books!" hahahha already too many ads everywhere
597  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [CHESS] FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament 2022 on: December 20, 2023, 11:55:04 AM
oh, leave me dancing for 6 hours but don't make me play chess for 2 non-stop
in my opinion it's much harder and more stressful to stay sitting down hyper concentraded into the chess battle

but maybe it's my lack of experience in the area
have been in less than 20 serious games in person
I play online way more often than irl

You may be surprised, but chess requires serious physical preparation. I have a friend who is an international grandmaster, I met him when he did not yet have a FIFA rating and he was an ordinary candidate for master of sports. Even then, he regularly visited the gym to keep himself in good physical shape and he directly said that it was unrealistic to sit at the board for several hours in a row without good preparation. Therefore, it may be paradoxical, but many chess players have excellent athletic shape - for example, Danil Dubov. When I saw his thin face during games, I would never have thought that he had the body of a workout man - he loves horizontal bars.



What can you say about the next wave of cheating scandals, which this time was started by Kramnik? He raises a very important topic, but unfortunately not always in the format of dialogue but rather categorical statements, so unfortunately many of his important thoughts remained in the shadow of the personal squabbles that he began with Nakamura. Unfortunately, we have absurd realities: everyone understands that there is a problem, but no one wants any solutions, and some (for example, chess.com) are not at all interested in getting rid of cheaters, since then their business will suffer. Some grandmasters have already announced that online chess is dead and it is difficult to disagree with them.

I would expect that too, the mind and the body are one thing in the end.
A fit body will help achieve a peaceful mind and a peaceful mind will help to have the consistensy to remain training and keep up with your fitness goals.



Do you have more details on this new weave of cheating scandals? haven't heard of it
598  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: E se... tivesse que gastar 1% do teu BTC? on: December 20, 2023, 11:42:54 AM


Nada a declarar sobre essas inverdades.

Tenho focado mais em gestão de tráfego ultimamente, paga melhor que malabarismo, mas criptomoedas são voláteis demais, arriscadas demais, melhor ficar longe mesmo, ce é louco, negócio é renda fixa, ficar rico devagar, tenho um plano de 30-40 anos agora e pretendo me aposentar tranquilo antes de chegar nos 99.

Confesso que li rapidamente o seu texto e por um minuto me passou algo diferente dessa sua "nova profissão". Aí parei para ler novamente e entendi direito o que você está fazendo atualmente. Achei no primeiro momento que era gestão de outra coisa.  Cheesy Cheesy
Agora, quanto a sua aposentadoria, agradeça a reforma previdenciária. Afinal, temos que cobrir o déficit da previdência. Ainda bem que minha aposentadoria sai logo. Já estou no sistema há muitos anos.  Grin

é, meu filho
se for pra depender do governo pra me aposentar, acabou.

sobre gestão de tráfego, exatamente, não julgue tão rápido, não trabalho com nada ilegal só as drogas mais pesadas mesmo: instagram, facebook, youtube. Essas que hoje em dia praticamente todo mundo usa, até criança tem uma telinha na mão.
As vezes começa com um postzinho e quando você vê já tá no infinite scroll...
599  Other / Off-topic / Re: Do you regret also for ever knowing about gambling? on: December 19, 2023, 12:44:12 PM
I don't know about other gamblers but there are sometimes that I regret why I ever involved myself with gambling, usually when I make crazy loses that I didn't actually plan for. I'm not an addict but we all know that even as a responsible gambler, there are times that you'd just go off your usual gambling ways and start gambling wild, this doesn't make you an addict though. So whenever I find myself in this state and then on the process loses a huge amount, I usually start regretting the reason I learned how to gamble.

have you ever lost money you couldn't afford to loose like getting a loan to gamble or something like that?
this is probably the most dangerous behavior
otherwise your max loss will be the amount you deposit in the platform, could be bad but not so hard to avoid ruin with a bit of self control (I know that this is the tricky part)
600  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: E se... tivesse que gastar 1% do teu BTC? on: December 19, 2023, 12:27:21 PM
boa tentativa receita federal
como eu não tenho BTC e 1% de zero é zero a única coisa que poderia comprar seria paciência... usaria o tempo para meditar o pq de ter tomado a decisão de me manter com pouco e viver uma vida simples ao invés de investir numa das mais promissoras classes de ativo dessa década...

Pelo menos essa vida simples é junto a praia ou a uma floresta, para poder aproveitar o ar puro da natureza?  Roll Eyes

estilo Christopher McCandless mas com gente que amo.




Pelo menos essa vida simples é junto a praia ou a uma floresta, para poder aproveitar o ar puro da natureza?  Roll Eyes

É nada. Ele fica na cidade curtindo o lucro das criptomoedas e das campanhas de assinaturas que ele participa. Já abandonou até o canal que ele tem  no YouTube. Nem mais shows de malabarismo ele faz. Só fica lendo livros o dia inteiro. Ficou rico com as criptomoedas. Agora quer dar uma enganada na Receita Federal.

Obs* Brincadeirinha Lucasgabd. Hahaha

Nada a declarar sobre essas inverdades.

Tenho focado mais em gestão de tráfego ultimamente, paga melhor que malabarismo, mas criptomoedas são voláteis demais, arriscadas demais, melhor ficar longe mesmo, ce é louco, negócio é renda fixa, ficar rico devagar, tenho um plano de 30-40 anos agora e pretendo me aposentar tranquilo antes de chegar nos 99.
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