If you are in a comfortable long position, why worry there is more upside to come in almost any foreseeable ew situation here. However, reading the current price action it seems like we are due for a correction. Best not to short but we might have a great buy opportunity approaching.  |
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Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about. Graphs really do the talking!
Np! Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest. All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here. This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds. https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/That chart is invalid before he even posted it. LOL  Y Absolutely, unequivocally MUST be equal to, or longer than X unless Y is a triangle. Not to mention X must be shorter than W which already invalidated this count as of $338 on the way down to $275. Interesting stuff Ryan. what do you think is going on then? (if you dont mind telling =P) I would be interested on your opinion on truncated V complete. This is your thread, so I'm not going to bore everyone with my charts. I do not think V was truncated. Not yet anyway. II was a simple ABC correction, so IV will likely be complex (✔), long (✔) and sideways (looking that way). IV is also typically longer than II and will also be proportional to the time to complete III. Since III was quite a long wave (in both price and duration) IV will go for a month or better since the start. If it is a C we are looking at right now, expect another week or more before completion. If that triangle were to happen, December and quite possibly after New Year would be expected. IMO, This early part of C doesn't have impulsive properties except in the later stages of this rise, so as of right now, I do not believe the bottom is in, and that triangle scenario is quite valid in my mind. Take a look at this count. We have retraced to acceptable Fibo levels and into the area of the 4th of a lesser degree (even though this isn't the widely agreed upon count, but it is still valid)  Now to address that "yet" part... As you said, since III was extended so far (2.618x wave-I), a truncated V is a definite possibility, but I won't speculate on that part yet. I want to first see what happens in this 4th. Yeah so our wave III counts are different. I think the wave iv there wave (iv) of v of III, not only because it is quite a lot smaller than the alternative but also because volume suggests wave iii of II came at the 2700 level. and wave III is something like 2.8-2.9x wave I. Really Im surprised that we got so close to 300 again that I think the last wave could be wave truncated V. Counting on the bigger picture there is nothing significant to invalidate it. |
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Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about. Graphs really do the talking!
Np! Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest. All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here. This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds. https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/That chart is invalid before he even posted it. LOL Y Absolutely, unequivocally MUST be equal to, or longer than X unless Y is a triangle. Not to mention X must be shorter than W which already invalidated this count as of $338 on the way down to $275. Interesting stuff Ryan. what do you think is going on then? (if you dont mind telling =P) I would be interested on your opinion on truncated V complete. |
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Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about. Graphs really do the talking!
Np! Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest. All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here. This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds. https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/ |
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While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels. Its also possible that we are in a IV and are about 30-40% of the way through a triangle. And that this C everyone is looking for will never happen. We may have established local lows (315) before we enter V, and we might not have yet established a lower high, but IV doesn't have to be an ABC. Would you post a graph of this? I am not going to call this an option for this thread because at the moment a case where V is not truncated is not easily allowed, especially in this case where wave V would go deep, and we have a strong guideline that we need to visit wave iv(III) even in a bearish case.  |
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While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels. Its also possible that we are in a IV and are about 30-40% of the way through a triangle. And that this C everyone is looking for will never happen. We may have established local lows (315) before we enter V, and we might not have yet established a lower high, but IV doesn't have to be an ABC. Possible but unlikely as long as wave iv(III) is much higher up. It is a strong guideline that wave IV will reside in wave iv(III). Even if we are in a triangle we are in early days of wave c and have a fair bit higher to go. |
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While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels. |
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This is potential iii species wave, meaning it could go real far real quickly. cannot be certain of this. One thing I know is that if this is wave iii then wave iv will be deep because wave ii was very shallow. In other words, you might get a fun surprise if you chase it up to 2200-2300 yuan!
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New highs in china, honey badger is here. I could only advise this breakout to buy if you are committed weeks of holding for best risk/reward. target 3000 yuan, stop 1970. thats target 480, stop 322.
gotta stress the importance of holding here, buying here is only for those who have the strength to hold until 3000 yuan. scalpers are in danger. alternatively, scalpers could buy the breakout, stoploss at 2080, or 341, and hope for the next wave to never retrace this point. If you remember the honey badger from 680 may rally, you might be comfortable with this.
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Hi chessnut,
What do think about current situation - do we have end of correction of yestarday small up trend now or it is still going or didn't even start yet?
We need more evidence to tell. my gut says we are not finished the correction but bfx breaks new highs... |
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We have made a significant breakthrough that is confirmation of truncated wave V or terminal wave B as expected. This means I am expecting a relentless rally to at least 3000yuan.
Bold prediction. Wishing it would come true  I think we should expect this. a 0.618 retrace would be an epic buy opportunity.
Any timescale for this? the rally to 3000yuan could take a couple of weeks........ the 0.618 correcton could take 12-24 hours though cant be sure it is under way yet. |
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I think we should expect this. a 0.618 retrace would be an epic buy opportunity.  |
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We have made a significant breakthrough that is confirmation of truncated wave V or terminal wave B as expected. This means I am expecting a relentless rally to at least 3000yuan. after this we might retest lows or simply continue to a new ATH. The market is over extended but we are still so early into this rally that for low leverage traders the risk/reward to buy in this area is still good. Ill be looking for a great buy signal on a dip, but chances are any dips will be shallow from here on and to ride the whole wave we will need to tolerate a stoploss at around 1980 level.   |
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With a triangle forming on the smaller scale as wave iv, This is the game plan. EDIT: as the triangle has broken downwards we need to stay above 2009 (wave i) to keep the impulsive count.  |
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This is what I expect to unfold roghly. Although we would have more confidence buying the buy zone if this goes to plan, there is a lot to be said for going long now while it is in the expected buy zone. we are expecting a shallow wave iv as wave ii was deep. if you get in comfy long here it could be a great medium term holder.  |
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buying any dip here is a good shot for the opportunistic trader.  |
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So yesterday I illustrated that even though the reaction to local lows was not impulsive (abc) the bigger picture was bullish and pushing for reversal. after failing to break new lows we have had a nice little rally extinguishing a lot of the momentum of the slide from 2140. We have a lot of divergence in this area. This is not consistent with a wave V count other than a truncated count. This may still fit into a wave B analysis as my friend Ronald _Bringer nicely illustrates here. https://www.tradingview.com/v/OEL1d6sI/I will be looking to signal long on the breakout of this triangle if it plays out nicely, or on the breakout of 2020.  |
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I am assuming you are in a long position now? Or holding out for more time to see which way that wedge resolves?
Yep I am long from 1970. At this level I would wait for a better signal before suggesting long. I will be giving a long signal if this plays out nicely. Do you think it's possible the price hit the bottom when the bear whale dumped? Yes, I do. but there are other options. if you wade back through the commments you will find there are two options, we may be in wave B or wave V truncated. in the case of wave B, we should revisit and maybe exceed the 270 lows. |
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I am assuming you are in a long position now? Or holding out for more time to see which way that wedge resolves?
Yep I am long from 1970. At this level I would wait for a better signal before suggesting long. I will be giving a long signal if this plays out nicely. Hi how are You set up yout stop loses, take profit and in which price did You buy?
What do You think about current situation - do You consider market depth in Your assumptions, becouse bid side on stamp seems to be powerfull
When I offer trades I always specify good stop loss levels and profit targets. I dont really look at market depth in my analysis. it's not useless, but I just dont. I have found it doesnt really help EW analysis. |
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Can you offer a good resource for learning about EW charting? I have studied many of the examples posted in this thread and it seems like a lot of subjectivity is being applied to each wave formation, and that they could be labeled differently. But perhaps I am just not experienced enough yet at EW. Any guidance would be appreciated.
There are certainly times when counts may be ambiguous and lead to different things but a most of the time there is no question about the validity or invalidity of a count. The rules that define validity are certainly not arbitrary, which you would learn reading about it into detail. Read up about it here, but the most detailed resources are not free. https://encrypted.google.com/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&lpg=PA30&pg=PA41#v=onepage&q&f=false |
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