For PSG to go a long way I think it will be vital to not get the wrong opponent in the round of 16 or in the quarterfinals. If they face a team like Real Madrid or Manchester City in one of those rounds, I doubt that PSG has the manpower to win against one of the favorites. So most importantly they should finish their group as 1st and then see what their next opponent in the knockout rounds will be. The drawings can have a significant impact on the outcome for any club on their success in the Champions League. Last season PSG was playing against Bayern in the round of 16 and it was instantly over for them. I think they could have survived that round if they had faced a weaker opponent. That's why my answer is that it depends first on their rank in the group stage. If they finish 2nd, the first opponent might already be too strong for them in the knockout round.

Barcelona has played some tasty football, I really liked it. It is good to see that they can perform amazing like that right before the Champions League begins. It was disappointing to see how they did last season and usually when you read their name in a game, you know that this is going to be a hell lot of fun to watch, but that wasn't the case last season.

But now I hope that times are finally improving for them and they can get an upgrade to a serious contender for titles due to consistent performances. Would be amazing as I have always been a Barcelona fan, but it was less exciting when they played slowly and not ingenious anymore. They were known for these excellent moves, but all of that was gone. Maybe there witty playfulness is now finally back.

At first I thought the same and then yes, it was because all those prices for any players of any quality were suffering from inflation literally. The prices were irrational and nobody could understand them. It was about that time when Grealish was bought and unless players have a clause that they can leave the club for a fixed sum of money like De Bruyne and Haaland I think, Manchester City is a rich club and the others make them pay for it. But still the difference between Manchester City and Chelsea is that Grealish became an essential player for the team. He is important to the whole game and perfectly fits into the system that Guardiola wants. If you see it that way, Manchester City spends 100 million once and it is good. Chelsea spends 70 million four times and none of the players delivers.

As much as I would have contradicted you in the past, as much I agree with you that Chelsea is probably not going to win that game. The bookmakers still think that Chelsea is a big favorite in this game. It is kind of fascinating how us bettors and bookmakers refuse to make adjustments to the odds for Chelsea not winning the game. But I did my homework and I either exclude Chelsea from my bets or I go against them when I think they are going to mess it up again.

Since Bournemouth tied the game against a very strong West Ham United team and they have also dominated that game at home clearly, I think that they will have a good chance to come out successfully against Chelsea. I am not sure about a win though, but I full doubt that they will be left with empty hands after the game.

That is right and I think Pep Guardiola is a great role model for a manager who is massive resources available but yet a well-considered and reasonable approach to building a really strong squad.

Since 2016 Guardiola has spent roughly £1 billion for new players with Grealish being the most expensive for £100 million. He also got Haaland for only £52 million. He made a number of high quality transfers and knew exactly what player he needs for a specific position, but also for the consistency and balance within the team in terms of character, quality and strength.

But this isn't the end of the story. Guardiola also let go players and his net spending since 2016 is £478 million. They have won 14 trophies including the treble.

Manchester United has had a net spending of £835 million over the same period of time.

And over the last five years Manchester City's net spending ranks 10th among the Premier League teams. Respect!

I guess Haaland's mission is well defined already: score more goals than last season. I admire his drive, his passion for the game, his dedication, his humbleness and also his ability to take criticism and to criticize himself.

I saw some games when he scored several goals and after the game he gave an interview and without making fun of the opponent by choosing fair and respectful words, he said that he made many mistakes and should have scored a few more goals that game. It also was authentic when he said it. Sometimes a player says it and you can see that there is some cockiness in those words. But not with this guy.

He had 35 goals last season and if he doesn't miss any games this season, no doubt he will break his own record. I am excited for the Champions League games as well because his record there is unbelievable. I think there never was a player who had as many games and a goal per game average of over 1.0. Chapeau!

This was a result that I never thought could be coming. Inter winning with 5 goals against 1 goal by AC Milan wasn't even in the back of my head considering that I thought something unexpected could happen. They demolished AC Milan as if Milan wasn't fully there, as if they had forgotten during this break how to play on a top level. I was hoping for a thrilling match with some goals and certainly a match that is exciting until the end, but this was over quite early. The goal 2-1 to close the gap gave a short moment of hope, but it didn't look like AC Milan could pull off the miracle and turn the game upside down. I think for now we know who is the best team in the Serie A.

But isn't this what everybody wants?

If football was so predictable that we wouldn't have to check the results anymore, where would the fun be? I think this is another great result that messed up many betting slips!

I thought that Atletico would win the game and also probably not concede a goal because that is their strength in many games against weaker teams, but this time I was way off the mark in any of the events that I expected to become true. Not scoring a goal in that game is is really bad for them.

When Atletico concedes a goal after 5 minutes, I thought that this game is anything but over because they would strike back somehow. But Valencia was the far more dangerous team and deserved the win.

Probably lots of people here have changed their minds after seeing the game of PSG against Nice. Me included by the way. At first I was sure that PSG would be the strongest team in that Group F, but this idea can't really be held up after that result. If they lose their home games like that, how will they do when they play in Newcastle or Milan or Dortmund? Those are definitely not games they could take home easy points from. When they also lose their home games like that, who knows but maybe they'll be knocked out before the knockout stage even starts.

I am a big football fan because I believe there is always some hope for unexpected results, but in this case I would agree that there is a very thin scope for potential success for Manchester United and with success I also mean a draw against Bayern Munich. Today Bayern Munich tied their game in the Bundesliga, so it is not impossible to win a point against them, but in the Champions League I also think that Bayern Munich will make sure to play their best.

In the last season in the Champions League Bayern Munich also had a great start and even worse for the other teams, Bayern's defense was strong and rock solid during the games as they only conceded two goals in those six games against opponents like Barcelona and Inter. This is easier said than done and Manchester United would have to significantly improve if they want to score against them.

Alaves has still done a good job this season because getting promoted is never easy and they have won two incredibly important games against Sevilla and Valencia when the odds were surely against them. Most of the time when teams get promoted it is more difficult for them to win any of the away games when simultaneously they are able to beat teams like the two I mentioned above. The home games are their savior I would expect. If they keep collecting points frequently from their home games, and it doesn't have to be the three points all the time, I believe they have a realistic chance to stay in La Liga after this season.

Not only that, but Manchester United also has to start their Champions League season with a game away from home against Bayern Munich and that makes it even heavier for them to play freely and find their best performance. But maybe it is the right game for them because it could either end in a wake up call or in a success that gives them confidence. Bayern is also not at their best at the moment.

But you said they play erratic and that hits the nail on the head. Their performances are so independent of each other. The only consistency you can see is that they are inconsistent and that they have problems even with the weaker teams.

But I think this a game with very equal teams and also equal performances and form over the last few weeks. This is a great derby because in my opinion it doesn't have an overwhelming favorite.

What I like the most about this game is that Inter Milan doesn't play as defensively as they used to do for many years. I hate teams that prefer to destroy the gameplay of the opponent rather than play brilliant football on their own. It's more standard when weak teams play against strong teams, but when Inter did that I thought that it's a pity they don't a different approach to their gameplay.

But this game will finally be full of action I think. Still they will play with care and try to make sure to not concede an early goal.

I think one interesting perspective to take here is that people betting big to win small tend to bet a relatively higher proportion of their bankroll or money they have available for gambling. If someone takes $100,000 to bet on odds of 1.03 I think it is either really for fun or it is supposed to be some sort of safe bet that is meant to increase the bankroll slightly. When someone goes for higher odds like 2.0 or 3.0, I guess it is someone who is using less of the available total bankroll and says "go big or go home".

It is also all about the risk appetite, but eventually it is about the mathematics. People tend to underestimate the comparative risk of going for low odds with big capital vs. going for high odds with low capital.

If someone wants to double $10,000 and bets on odds with 1.10 in equal increments, the $10,000 would have to be bet 10 times. Now it's difficult to come up with probabilities because it depends on the bookies as to what odds they allocate to what potential win rate. But assuming that the player would give himself a 93% win rate for each of those bets, this equals 93%^10=48.4%. A player would have to think that he wins in more than 93% of the cases for each bet valued at 1.10 odds by the bookie to come up on top of a total win rate of 50%.

If a player wins half of the time and loses half of the time, he remains break even. So betting with high capital on low odds makes only sense if your bankroll is much bigger than your partial bets and the player is better in valuing the odds probability-wise than the bookie.

I believe this, too. If they had a better first four games, the overall opinion would be different. But I think the first four games have also provided some important information about their shape at the moment. These games were mostly against opponents that I would say belong to the top third or certainly top half of the Premier League. Losing against Manchester City is one thing, but also losing this game against Liverpool the way they lost it might have decreased public confidence in their upcoming Champions League performances. And frankly, I see it like that, too. Losing against all these stronger opponents means that they have not yet found the right means to win those games. There can still be done something about it, but the Champions League is quite similar to what they have had during their first four games in the Premier League now. Playing against PSG, AC Milan and Dortmund is difficult. I would say it would probably be easier if they played against Manchester City and then two mediocre or weaker teams. This group is like having a final in every single round of the group stage.

I don't think they are underrated at the moment, but they didn't have that many good games during the beginning of the season. Maybe people are curious to see whether they continue with their performances from last season. I think that would make a huge difference. But the group is tough because there isn't really a big favorite who is probably going to win all the games. Which means that they will be taking away points from each other. This could be a killer group with everyone still having all the chances before the last match and everyone could also still lose everything.

I guess side bets is quite some fun and even though I saw people making their own bets here from time to time, I've never seen a dedicated thread for it.

I really didn't want to go off-topic here, but OP's opinion about Messi winning the next Ballon d'Or got me thinking about it. At first I wanted to say that that isn't possible. But Wikipedia says this:

"Note: Until 2021, the Ballon d'Or was awarded based on player performance during the calendar year. Since 2022, jurors have been instructed to take into account the previous season.[20]"

I guess this could give Messi the edge over Haaland as that title with Argentina may count more for some of the voters. But it is also unfair because that would mean Haaland can never have that title and will always be competing with someone who wins the World Cup or another big tournament every four years.

But this one surely was a funny fail by Franctoshi! I often read some posts here and think that someone just got a little bit of it wrong or maybe read an old source or something, but missing out on the fact that neither Mbappe nor Benzema is playing for Real Madrid, and then even to think that both are playing together for Real Madrid right now, @Franctoshi I wonder which source you had a look at? But it's fine, shit happens!

Well I think the Mbappe thing will not even come to a normal ending after this season. There is probably tons of rumors again and who knows what the PSG bosses are planning. Given the astronomical salaries these days, nobody would be impressed if they offered him 200 million a year as well if he extends his contract one more time. I don't know whether that would be possible because of financial fair play, but what if they offer him a salary that also contains a pension of 30 million for the next 30 years or so. I don't know how such a contract would be counted, but if they really want to they will find ways to pay him some extra.

Man you are talking trash! Benzema? What are you even posting here? I am really not calling anyone out because I am not interested in doing that, but can't you please invest a minimum amount of time to get the most obvious facts right? Bezema is no Real Madrid player. I don't now what you are wishing for or which drugs made you dream of Mbappe and Benzema playing together for Real Madrid, but this is weird.

As in any other area of business, there are contracts and these contracts are supposed to be complied with. Mbappe has a contract and hence he has to stay when requirements from PSG are not fulfilled. Whether he is good or bad or what not is completely irrelevant.

But maybe you know more than anyone else and Real Madrid is already working on a deal behind the scenes to bring Benzema back from Saudi Arabia.

There is a lot of work for them to do in the near future, but to be honest I think Canada and Germany have played very well against them with an extremely good hit rate from all distances.

I was wondering if the score is normal like that. In four quarters scoring 111:111 for the two teams before overtime started, isn't that a hell lot of points?  Each quarter is just 10 minutes and this is a score average that I thought would be way above of what is normally to be expected.

But USA was the big favorite and I think they had a hard time to motivate themselves to play for 3rd as good as they would play as if it was for the title. This was a disappointing tournament for them.