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cypher,
I admit I was too busy watching the developments to actually listen to the hearings. It appears I should. Reserve currency status, tax haven... The mere mention of such things is surprising enough.
This makes me think the next wave is coming very soon. Gears must be turning in many people's heads, many powerful people's heads.
One important difference between Bitcoin and a market commodity is the landgrab aspect. So many people, consciously or not, are thinking of Bitcoin as something to buy low and sell high. A few of us, including of course rpietila and you I'm sure, understand that it's about how many coins you can get. There's no exit. Bitcoin is the ultimate exit - the Bitcoin standard. You can doubt that Bitcoin will succeed and hedge accordingly, but insofar as you believe it will succeed it should be viewed as a landgrab rather than a "buy low, sell high" trade (except with a small portion in order to accumulate more).
As people realize this, the bubbles could come faster and faster, since the dynamic is making that subtle switch from netting maximum fiat to netting maximum coin.
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I think many people on here coming from a libertarian (I'm in that category) or full-out anarchy philosophy tend to view government as one giant beast, whose actions are coordinated and deliberate. I think the reality is that gov is a loose collection of individuals, most of whom just want to do their jobs, maybe get some praise every now and then, and take home a paycheck. Regulators want to meet their mandates, law enforcement wants to catch people who break the law, the Fed wants to meet their inflation and employment targets, and politicians want to get re-elected. The notion that there's a coordinated well-thought-out deliberate conspiracy across agencies, involving calculated strategic deception, to twart bitcoin as a threat to a devious fiat banking regime is....naive. Government is not coordinated. The individuals that comprise it are generally not that visionary. Agencies are composed of a wide array of individuals with all manner of their own ideologies. I've raised this exact point myself. I call it the collectivist fallacy, and it's one most libertarians fall into. Once this misconception is cleared away it becomes apparent that Bitcoin won't necessarily encounter much resistance from petty bureaucrats as it doesn't directly affect them, or at least it won't seem to them that it will be able to affect them by the time they leave office. Nevertheless, there are powerful people who do see sound money as a direct threat, and they would see Bitcoin as a threat if only they understood it AND believed there was a decent chance it could take over. The ECB report and others suggest at least some of them see the threat. But do they understand how clear and present it is? Maybe they are too slow to care, but if they did understand they only have two options that I can see: 1) Attempt to suppress it, or 2) Buy in massively. |
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cypherdoc,
There are many levels to "getting it." The crypto part is fine to just understand as magic, and "can't print it" is nice given the recent anti-banker sentiment, but most of the US and the world still believe that deflation is disastrous, for example.
Now I've heard some theories that the Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Morgans, etc. actually understand Austrian economics simply because they've been at the money printing game for so long and were bankrolling Keynes and the general mainstream corruption of economics as a science. But even so, why give up their power so easily? They obviously haven't bought in yet or else the price would be a lot higher...unless they're doing it right now. Buying in a major way would be the only way to preserve the level of power they now enjoy, so I can only conclude that very few of them understand the full implications.
And even if they grokked the implications, they'd probably be like most people and assume it will fail, due a lack of understanding of antifragility, emergent order, open source, etc. I just don't think that many people will get this so quickly due to the sheer number of subjects they have to master.
The main thing: if a sizable portion of the government and power elite were really privy to the full extent of what is happening and the likelihood that it really will happen, the price would be a lot higher now than it is. I can't see the world's most powerful people greenlighting or being comfortable with this thing until they've bought in. Maybe we're witnessing soe of the elites jumping in and pulling strings in an effort to outcompete the rest.
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the gold bugs believe in the end of the world and the internet. i don't. that Armageddon play itself is doomed. Bitcoin doesn't mean Armageddon, it is financial innovation. i think the US will somehow weave it's way through the mess we find ourselves in and incorporate Bitcoin in some very useful way. yes, it will take time. that is indeed optimistic isn't it? but Bitcoin is going to prove to be a powerful tool that will benefit all of mankind and i think the US realizes it can't afford to shun it.
I'm both more optimistic and more pessimistic or wary than I think you are. I'm more optimistic about what Bitcoin will achieve for the world, but more wary about what the central bankers will do when they realize the extent of the threat. I'm not saying I necessarily expect these government people to be up in arms, but I expect someone in the power elite to be. Probably many people. I'm not necessarily pessimistic, just wary of what kind of attacks will come. I don't think the banking dynasties will give up without an epic fight, if they aren't too blindsided to wage one. And what if they see the writing on the wall? And they decide "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em"? Being in a position of power, if you could see that bitcoin could really become the world reserve currency, how about buying a f*ckload with your own money? Yeah that's the fun part, but I don't think it's realistic for any more than a few people to be wise to this yet. Bitcoin is difficult to understand. |
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the gold bugs believe in the end of the world and the internet. i don't. that Armageddon play itself is doomed. Bitcoin doesn't mean Armageddon, it is financial innovation. i think the US will somehow weave it's way through the mess we find ourselves in and incorporate Bitcoin in some very useful way. yes, it will take time. that is indeed optimistic isn't it? but Bitcoin is going to prove to be a powerful tool that will benefit all of mankind and i think the US realizes it can't afford to shun it.
I'm both more optimistic and more pessimistic or wary than I gather you are. I'm more optimistic about what Bitcoin will achieve for the world, but more wary about what the central bankers will do when they realize the extent of the threat. I'm not saying I necessarily expect these government people to be up in arms, but I expect someone in the power elite to be. Probably many people. I'm not necessarily pessimistic, just wary of what kind of attacks will come. I don't think the banking dynasties will give up without an epic fight, if they aren't too blindsided to wage one. Right now my best read is that most of these regulators don't comprehend the full extent of what is happening. I'd like it to stay that way. Most of them will be out of a job if Bitcoin succeeds. Big government is very hard to do without money printing, whether they realize that or not. |
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Somebody here said that Bitcoin is like a blob. You hit it and it assimilates you. That was me  |
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Price was rising too fast to make arbitrage profitable except in the more extreme cases. The lost time exposed to Bitcoin just hurt too much. If the price stops rising we'll see more arbitrage I think.
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2011 bubble meets 2013 bubble. Clash of the bubbles. China want to have its 2011 insanity and Gox and Stamp were too recently burned and are exercising moderation. What will be the result? It may just be an average of the two, or it may be radically unpredictable.
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maybe China will use their trillions of USD toilet paper reserves to buy bitcoins  Over the next 30 years or so. Most of China's USD holdings are in US treasury bonds not "cash". Maybe this is their exit strategy  |
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given the market price ramps we've seen and after yesterday's Senate hearings, Team BTC-USA has already formed.
I'm just not sure how these Senate hearings usually go. Is this just them being polite? Are they gonna figure out that Bitcoin is un-regulate-able and blow a collective gasket? Or is this really the US embracing cryptocurrencies? It just seems too good to be true. Perhaps their way of thinking, the fact that they believe in centralized control, is exactly what keeps them from seeing the fundamental potential of Bitcoin to rearrange the world. |
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The Goat never lies. Time to double down |
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China Will send us to haven:
5,775.00 CNY = 947.708 USD
Buy this baby before chinese scoop the coins
Gox at 740 just now. |
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If you look at the chart since the crash it looks like April-August, like we're fast-forwarding through the months hour by hour. So will it consolidate then go higher? April-Aug:  Last 24 hours:  |
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Well anarchy is matter of timescale. It's true that if things happen too fast it can be bad, but I think there are natural limitations that act as brakes. Think Bitcoin infrastructure.
A characteristic of natural orders - whether they be rainforests, customary legal systems, or markets - is that they start out very precarious but become very powerful and balanced as time goes on, as structural relationships are developed and negotiated, as trial and error runs its course, as evolution and natural selection happen. But in the digital age this can happen extremely quickly.
I'm not worried about traditional banking and monetary authority losing its grip too fast, because that will take several years at least and I just don't think they actually provide real stability anyway - if anything they cause chaos with their market interventions. I trust Bitcoin's antifragility more than rigid central planning.
What I think about whitelisting is I'd like to see it tried and fail for distraction purposes just because right now, this coming year or so, feels like a crucial time for Bitcoin adoption. I could see it either being banned or regulated into obscurity in the US, only to roar back again massively in a few years after gestating overseas, or not being banned or overly regulated and taking a more direct, faster path into the mainstream. I prefer the faster path.
Basically anything for the "by the time they know what hit 'em it'll be too late" dynamic to happen.
Optimistically speaking, it may already be too late. Bitcoin may be so compelling on an individual level for both the virtuous and the rats in government and financial circles that they know they have to get in. Then they're on Team BTC.
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Cash will be coming in.
Always remember the delayed effect. Whether it will be enough money to sustain the rally this soon I don't know, but there will always be a delay in getting funds to an exchange, getting verified, and figuring out how to store and safekeep bitcoins. That's usually several weeks of delay. That delay allows astute investors to make money, although that's easier when the price has been relatively calm since the surge is quite salient on a calm price chart. |
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Bitcoin on front page of goldbug stronghold goldseek.com:  The articleThe Fed's $85 billion in monthly bond purchases are inflationary and remain very gold bullish but gold remains very weak despite this ongoing currency debasement.
This money printing and currency debasement and still elevated systemic risk has led to bitcoin surging to new record highs overnight as buyers take shelter in the new virtual currency. Yet, at the same time gold prices remain weak. This is giving further credence to allegations of price suppression.
The virtual currency rose to a high of $900.98 on the Mt. Gox exchange Monday afternoon. It surged 42% from Sunday's close and is up 107% from a week earlier.
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U.S. law enforcement and regulatory agents expressed optimism and acknowledged risks for digital currencies. U.S. officials outlined the potential benefits and liabilities of bitcoin.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a letter in absentia to the Senate panel that virtual currencies "may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure, and more efficient payment system."
Bitcoin’s latest gains came despite the potential for regulation of the digital currency. The U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC) began a hearing yesterday. The event brought representatives from different federal agencies and representatives from the bitcoin community to discuss virtual currencies.
Bitcoin has increased more than tenfold since the beginning of 2013. One of the reasons for the incredible surge is that bitcoin is a freely traded market and not subject to rigging or price manipulation by banks or government. Total market capitalization of bitcoins is in excess of $8 billion based on recent prices, according to Bitcoincharts.com.
The bitcoin frenzy today will be mirrored by a gold buying frenzy which will again see gold prices surge in value in the coming months. This will only happen when prices are again dictated by physical supply and demand.
Bitcoin is an interesting speculative punt and may merit a small allocation in a portfolio however its virtual and digital nature create advantages and also risks.
Physical gold, either in your possession or in allocated accounts, remains a far safer alternative both to bitcoin, to digital gold platforms and to paper and electronic currencies in what is still a vulnerable banking system. Bolded parts show a developing sentiment that gold is suppressed and manipulated, but Bitcoin is a truly free market. It's being used as proof that gold will rally once the manipulation ends  I believe that last paragraph was just inserted to maintain the ostensible gold bull trappings to make it suitable for being posted on the site. I think "Goldcore" has some BTC. |
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Impossible for them to take it over. It's like trying to wrestle with water. Bitcoin is a community of decentralized nodes. It can outmaneuver whatever any centralized force tries to throw at it. But I like the whitelisting idea because it makes the establishment let their guard down as the inevitable happens under their noses. It will place a temporary roadblock in Bitcoin's path while allowing it to seep through and assimilate the entire road.
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Nothing, Bitcoin is the NWO currency.
Not sure if serious. We are the new world order Right, this is the new world order. Spontaneous, decentralized, emergent order. |
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Interesting moments, if we break down $350 we will see some real panic and the buying opportunity will be EXCELLENT. Difficult to say if it will happen though. $600-$700 (on Stamp) was an excellent moment to realize some fiat profits and I'm happy with the choice I made.
To all the "singularity" fans: just remember that BTC's infrastructure is not ready yet for such an event. Nevertheless, I find myself not agreeing with Blitz, this does not look to me like a "pop" preceeding a bear market, this looks to me just like a healthy correction that brings some sanity to an unsustainable parabolic growth scenario. We need to remember that Gox is broke; Bitstamp is currently delaying both deposits and withdrawals (its been +1 week since the last "fresh" money was credit to Bitstamp accounts); Coinbase halted trading, and the rest of exchanges are a joke. Fiat is having a harsh time to flow to and from the exchanges.
Taking into account all the above, I bet for the "correction" scenario.
+1 to this. |
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