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641  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Will cryptocurrency replace other currencies? on: February 27, 2023, 08:21:16 AM

A system that has been running for centuries and has been accepted on all fronts will be difficult to change or can be said to take time to change it, which is why the doubts always raises that crypto can replace fiat and until now it seem difficult to happen, even to make the government at least accept cryptocurrencies especially Bitcoin just an alternative to fiat still difficult to implement, moreover until now country that accept Bitcoin as legal tender has not shown a good change in the country
Once upon a time, in the role of fiat money, people used pebbles, or something like that, but then the time came for fiat money as we know it today. Time will pass and there will be only digital currencies in the world, and cryptocurrencies will have their important place in this system. This takes time, everything cannot happen immediately, there must be a period of acceptance and adaptation, this is normal.
It is unlikely that we will ever see a period when only digital currencies will be used. For this, technical progress and the standard of living in most states must rise to very high levels. However, now we continue to observe wars with their inevitable destruction of economies and a decrease in the level of well-being of citizens, new diseases and epidemics, global climate change for the worse, which provokes new cataclysms like the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria.

States are able to issue and issue digital currencies only as a kind of their non-cash payments. Therefore, the cryptocurrency can only go in parallel with the fiat of the states and is not able to replace the national currencies of the states. As long as states exist, they will not allow crypto to surpass their fiat.
642  Economy / Economics / Re: The volatility in the price of a bitcoin is falling over time, or not. on: February 27, 2023, 08:01:20 AM
By the way, I thought - if the volatility becomes commensurate with fiat stable currencies (as far as possible) - the cryptocurrency will disappear, in fact, a completely speculative component, and interest in the crypt will decrease to the level of fiat stock brokers who trade on currency exchanges ... And this means a decline in interest , a decrease in investment attractiveness and no more huge x's in the price Smiley
Most likely, the high price volatility of the cryptocurrency will always remain. Its volatility cannot fall so much as to even approximately approach the fiat of states in terms of level. Indeed, unlike other markets, the cryptocurrency market is not regulated, and the price of a cryptocurrency depends entirely on the relationship between supply and demand. In addition, in my opinion, with an increase in the price of cryptocurrencies, the amplitude of price fluctuations will also increase. We can clearly see this in the example of bitcoin.
643  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict on: February 27, 2023, 07:40:10 AM

That's certainly true, mate. A Taiwan invasion would certainly lead us towards higher prices for electronic devices (especially smartphones and computers). I can see how this would negatively affect Bitcoin in the short term. If you thought the Russo-Ukraine war was coming to an end, then you haven't seen the worst of it yet. There will be more pain ahead for all of us if China decides to invade Taiwan.

I really hope we can get back to some sort of peace treaty between world countries, so everything could go back to normal. It's been a disaster after another disaster ever since the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm. The US certainly doesn't want inflation to rise, so a direct conflict with China would be zero to none. We can't predict the future, anyways. Who knows what will happen in just 2 years from now? Just my opinion Smiley
The Chinese leadership is now very closely watching the course of hostilities in Ukraine and the assistance provided to Ukraine by the international community. I think that what they see, namely the cohesion of other states to provide all kinds of assistance to Ukraine, greatly weakens the military fervor of China to attack Taiwan. In addition, China is very dependent on technology and trade with the US and European countries. And they perfectly understand what serious sanctions will follow if they decide to attack Taiwan. All this is now being tested in Russia and in the future it may well be applicable to China in the event of such aggression.

Therefore, China is now very cautious in its statements and actions. The intrigue remains over the emergence of information that China may provide military assistance to Russia with drones and artillery shells. If this happens, it will become obvious that China is preparing to attack Taiwan. Most likely, this is a stuffing of the necessary information, and China wants to use it in its multi-way combinations to obtain certain benefits, and not to help Russia in this losing war.
644  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict on: February 25, 2023, 11:55:43 AM

There are far too many gun and weapons manufacturers around and most countries, in the bid to “protect” themselves from external aggression come up with new creative innovations that would produce deadly and destructive weaponry.
I’ve come to the conclusion that there would always be conflict in this world. And gun and weapons manufacturers would continue to sell their wares.
There are a lot of conflicts presently going on. Some, not worth the media attention. And I’m willing to bet weapon manufacturers are indirectly stoking the flames of conflicts and violence.
Perhaps, in some cases, arms manufacturers are making some effort to ignite the flames of some next conflict and thus increase the demand for their military products.
  Now the biggest war is unleashed by Russia in Ukraine. But the Russian military-industrial complex can hardly be suspected of this. Although, who knows. In any case, even for Putin's closest circle, his decision to attack Ukraine with all his might was a big surprise. And Russia itself, as it turned out, was not prepared for a serious and protracted war. Under the sanctions, Russia's military industry cannot actually work normally. But for the military-industrial complex of the United States and other NATO countries, the war in Ukraine really sharply increased orders for their military products. So, if before this war the United States produced about 20,000 artillery shells per month, then by 2025 they plan to increase their production to 90,000 pieces. This also applies to the military equipment of the NATO countries, which have shown high efficiency in this war. Against the background of the fact that the demand for bad Russian equipment in the world will fall, the military factories of NATO countries are already loaded with applications for many years to come.
645  Economy / Economics / Re: No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream? on: February 24, 2023, 08:36:19 PM

If it does happen in the allocated time, it would definitely happen in phases. You’re right, Petrol and diesel fueled cars won’t just disappear overnight. And people won’t just switch to electric vehicles just because.
Affordability in my opinion is also a problem that would hinder the phasing out of petrol and diesel fueled vehicles. Not everyone would be able to afford to purchase, run and maintain the electric run vehicles. So I think In the long run, they would have to make it more affordable so people could actually switch.
In Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada also today, on February 24, adopted a law banning the use of buses with diesel and gasoline internal combustion engines on public transport routes from 2036.
From January 1, 2036, only electric buses, buses with internal combustion engines running on gas, as well as buses with a hydrogen fuel cell will be allowed on bus routes in cities of district and regional significance.
Ukraine is gradually bringing its legislation under the European one, as it wants to join the EU in the coming years. Apparently, this law also belongs to this category. But until then, the transition to cars will be gradual. So, from January 1, 2028, at least 50% of buses must be electric, methane or hydrogen. Diesel and gasoline engines will gradually become a thing of the past.
646  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: February 24, 2023, 05:14:03 PM
After the reduction of gas supplies from the Russian Federation and the embargo against Russian crude oil, on February 5, sanctions against Russian oil products came into force. Some analysts and market participants feared that the restrictions would lead to a shortage of diesel and other petroleum products, but this did not happen, as European states instantly and painlessly rebuilt the logistics of supplies from Russia to the Middle East and Asia.

Diesel deliveries in January already surpassed those of December, with the share of imports coming from the Middle East and Asia rising to 60%, a record for the last 7 years. Deliveries of Russian oil products to Europe now amount to only 282,000 barrels per day.

Thus, the European countries almost did not notice the refusal of Russian supplies. This was facilitated by an active search for alternative suppliers, a decrease in domestic consumption, as well as warm weather in the winter before, which made it possible to significantly increase fuel reserves in storage facilities.

Another Russian plan to freeze Ukraine by direct bombardment of the energy infrastructure and put pressure on the countries of Europe by sharply reducing gas supplies not only did not produce any result, but also led to the opposite results. Now Europe is almost completely united in support of Ukraine.
647  Economy / Economics / Re: Israel's Central Bank Proposes Rules for Stablecoins Including 100% Reserve on: February 24, 2023, 04:21:42 PM
This rule only seems to mention the future regulation on centralized stablecoins and algorithmic ones, but does not make clear what would Israel do in the case of coins like Dai, which are backed by ether and other cryptocurrency (over-collateral).

I assume they do not want or do not care the address that case yet, since the adoption for now tends toward coins like Tether, USDC and BUSD (in the case this latter manages to survive the SEC).


Only in the first version of MakerDAO, only ETH could be deposited as collateral. In November 2019, the project community decided to switch to a multi-collateral system — that is, to allow users to use different cryptocurrencies for collateral. USDC, WBTC, MANA, USDP, LINK, YFI, GUSD, enBTC, and MATIC can currently be pledged on MakerDAO. Also in July 2022, MakerDAO became the first DeFi protocol to accept shares of public companies as collateral.

With regard to the above rules for regulating stablecoins by the Central Bank of Israel, they are quite acceptable. So far, the main thing is that stablecoins, backed by the currencies of different states, are being legalized and will freely circulate along with their fiat.
648  Economy / Economics / Re: Bank of Russia to Pilot CBDC in April on: February 23, 2023, 12:46:59 PM
I can't see how interest in this from the average citizen will be anything greater than zero. Because it's still a Russian ruble, only in a digital form instead of notes. This will actually make it even less convenient for businesspeople because they have to interact with clients who may not use technology, whereas CDBC requires both parties to have a digital device in order to make any transactions.

Same goes for just about any other CDBC in the world.
CBDC will greatly increase the possibilities and efficiency of cashless payments. Therefore, the interest of citizens and businessmen in national CBDC will be. Such payments, unlike non-cash bank payments, will be almost instantaneous. At the same time, the Central Bank will be able to fully control transactions and, if necessary, block their completion. But in any case, the advantages of CBDC over bank non-cash transactions are obvious.
649  Economy / Economics / Re: CBDCs & their technical abilities for global transacactions on: February 23, 2023, 12:32:36 PM
So far I haven't found a single technical requirement how CBDC should be printed with the default properties. It is rumored that CBDC will be completely different from cryptocurrency especially the network infrastructure, but Norway has considered the Ethereum technology as the basis of its network. Then this is far from forecasting KYC requests.
I think every country will have their own version of CBDC technically. And about being globally acceptable, it will also depend on their scalability plans.
Now over 110 countries are working on the possibility of issuing their own digitized national currencies or CBDC.
CBDC is a full-fledged equivalent of cash, it does not depend on the ability of banks to serve it. It is issued in the form of a unique code, which is stored on a special electronic wallet. During transactions, funds simply move from one wallet to another, there are no intermediaries (banks or financial organizations) or their participation is minimal. However, in any case, banks will have full control over their CBDC through e-wallets.
In Ukraine, CBDCs should also appear using the ethereum platform. But it is still difficult to imagine how it will all work.
650  Economy / Economics / Re: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy on: February 23, 2023, 12:04:26 PM

There were a lot of wars in which the USSR and the USA supported two opposite sides.  The most famous of these wars is the Vietnam War. 

Usually the USSR and the USA acted as follows - they supplied weapons to the parties to the conflict and sent military instructors.  Including it could be pilots of military aircraft. 

Of course, a large-scale war in the middle of Europe is a very big risk of further escalation of the conflict. 

In particular, in my opinion, Poland is psychologically ready to take the side of Ukraine.  In certain situations, it is probably ready to send its soldiers to participate in hostilities against Russia.
Since the time of Peter the Great (this is the end of the 17th, the beginning of the 18th centuries), in all the wars waged by the Russian Empire, and then the USSR, Ukrainians participated on their side, and this gave them additional power, since Ukrainians have always been distinguished by resourcefulness and the conduct of non-standard military actions and free spirit of Zaporizhsky Cossacks. Now, for the first time, Russia has launched a large-scale war against Ukraine at the state level, and it cannot and is not able to win this war, despite more than a tenfold superiority in manpower and equipment.
Some countries, such as Poland, may be ready to support Ukraine with their regular troops, but Ukraine has not yet asked for such help and, most likely, will manage on its own. True, in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there are volunteers from various countries, mainly from the CIS countries, who, with the help of Ukraine's victory, want to overthrow their anti-people regimes.
651  Economy / Economics / Re: Eu Cina vs USA russia oil vs Green energy on: February 22, 2023, 09:29:47 AM

Green energy is mostly solar power.

Solar panels are made from processed silicon. Which is essentially sand heated into glass. The barrier to entry for solar power may not be high. The issue behind most major nations of the world not becoming more involved in solar power likely has to do with lack of funding, skilled labor and expertise. Much of the existing technology behind patented solar based intellectual property has its origins in the united states. With production being moved to china in an effort to leverage lower labor costs.

In terms of efficiency, I think the advantage is with green energy given its potential for growth and scaling. Electric motors can reach 80%+ efficiency. While internal combustion engines are usually rated around 15% efficiency. The difference comes from fossil fuels having on average greater energy density as a fuel source.

It could be guaranteed that oil and fossil fuels would not last forever. At some point, we could be forced to abandon them or find alternatives when supply runs out. Perhaps its better to begin the transition now, rather than wait until its too late.
Of course, the future belongs to alternative energy sources and the most significant place among them is solar panels, the production of which is getting cheaper thanks to new technologies. So, scientists from the University of Rochester were able to develop a new method to increase the efficiency of the solar cell material. Silicon is usually used as the basis for solar panel development, because it is found in abundance in nature and has an excellent ability to convert sunlight into energy. However, the researchers decided to use in the development of panels a forgotten, but not lost relevance mineral - perovskite - a source of titanium, niobium and a number of other elements. It is quite famous for its crystal structure. If we use perovskite instead of silicon in solar panels, then the energy efficiency immediately triples. Probably, and this is far from the limit.

If technologies continue to improve further, then hydrocarbon energy sources can be forgotten. Of course, oil and gas can be used in various industries, up to the food industry, but not on the current huge scale. Therefore, Russia in this regard will lose its former significance and greatness.
652  Economy / Economics / Re: The world continues dumping US dollar (Gold, New World Order, World War III) on: February 22, 2023, 09:05:19 AM
Gold buyers binge on biggest volumes for 55 years
Central banks are scooping up gold at the fastest pace since 1967, with analysts pinning China and Russia as big buyers in an indication that some nations are keen to diversify their reserves away from the dollar.
For many countries, the gold reserve has been and remains the main reserve asset in case of serious economic problems. Despite the existence of other instruments, such as bonds and stocks, states primarily prefer to form their reserves from gold.
According to open sources, the reserves of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the richest states are:

1. USA - 8133 tons or 78.7% of national reserves. The United States of America has been and remains the main holder of gold in the world.

2. Germany - 3359 tons or 75.5% of national reserves.

3. Italy - 2451 tons or 69.4% of national reserves.

4. France - 2436 tons or 65.4% of national reserves.

5. Russia - 2295 tons or 22.4% of national reserves.

6. China - 1948 tons or 3.4% of national reserves.

7. Switzerland - 1040 tons or 5.6% of national reserves.

At the same time, I do not think that many countries are now actively getting rid of the dollar. There are such attempts, but what they will lead to is still unknown.
653  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: February 22, 2023, 07:02:24 AM

I don't think that there is a big possibility of Russia using tactical nukes in Ukraine. Even in frontline cities such as Bakhmut and Vuhledar, there are still thousands of civilians trapped in the basements and bomb shelters. A majority of them are ethnic Russians and in case Russia uses tactical nukes, then these people will be destroyed. And the other option for Russia will be to use tactical nukes on cities that are mostly inhabited by ethnic Ukrainians, such as Lviv and Ternopil. But this will result in retaliatory strikes by NATO.

As such there are no "tactical" nukes. Nukes are nukes no matter what they are called. Even the best tactical nuclear weapon will result in the deaths of thousands of civilians, along with the military manpower and equipment. There is no magical nuclear weapon that will only kill the soldiers. And at this point, I don't think that Putin is lunatic enough to commit such a mistake, which would result in his strongest allies deserting him.
A tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine by Russia is generally pointless from all sides. Putin doesn't really care about the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine, who will suffer from its use on the front lines in Ukraine. Now, "liberating" the settlements in the Donbass, the Russian troops are deliberately destroying them almost completely so much that it is simply impossible to restore them, and the Russian-speaking civilian population is dying there in the first place. In order to fight further under conditions of nuclear destruction, Russian troops will need to have special protection, and there are very big problems in them and with conventional equipment.

Attacking the western part of Ukraine is like attacking NATO countries, since the radioactive contamination will spread to them as well. And Putin has already been unequivocally warned that they will strike back not only at Russia, but also personally at Putin in his bunker.

In addition, militarily, a tactical nuclear strike will not solve anything militarily. Ukraine will continue to defend itself under any conditions. But it will become clear to the world that Putin's Russia will need to be destroyed and the impending threat eliminated.
654  Economy / Economics / Re: Bank of Russia to Pilot CBDC in April on: February 21, 2023, 10:00:44 AM
It likely became necessary due to the sanctions and the need to easily trade with foreign countries without using the dollars.
Well, it's nice this is going through the pilot phase. It's better to learn from there than implementing it fully with little/no experience or knowledge.

It's important they assume that the sanctions will never be lifted and continue to develop ways to survive and thrive in it. I however don't think Russia will let them take back the regions that have been annexed, which will be against their conditions or requirements for lifting parts of the sanctions.

The question is not that Russia wants to trade on the international market without using the dollar. It is generally very difficult for her to trade now, since almost all of her banks are cut off from the SWIFT payment system. If Russia issues and uses its own CBDCs, this solves practically nothing, since trading using the digital ruble also requires the involvement of the banking structures of both trading countries. In addition, now other countries do not want to trade with the help of Russian rubles, since this is a currency that is falling due to a failed war. Therefore, Russia's CBDC is unlikely to be successful in the international arena. After all, this is the same non-cash ruble.
655  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict on: February 21, 2023, 09:42:35 AM

I really hope my country will be done with Russia by that point, and if Russia loses against Ukraine, it can be a great deterrent for China because that can show that a smaller and objectively weaker country (in terms of initial personnel, forces, military rankings, economies) can defeat a bigger one, and that there are enough countries in the contemporary world that are strongly against military invasions and are willing to help the one defending oneself. China isn't stupid, and while they might want to get Taiwan back, they also don't want to lose to Taiwan and lose any grip on the world over a small part of land. If the China-Taiwan war occurs, I think it will be a bigger stress factor for the world economy than Russia vs Ukraine because of stronger economies directly involved and the worldwide impact of both China as a leading manufacturer of so many things and Taiwan's importance for technological progress.
Russia's war against Ukraine should generally end this year with a victory for Ukraine. This will indeed serve as a powerful deterrent for China, because they saw that the world does not tolerate aggression and that less militarily strong states are capable of defeating the aggressor if the world unites and provides all possible assistance to the victim of aggression. Of course, the Chinese government would like Russia to take over Ukraine. Then against this background, China would have had a free hand with respect to Taiwan. But this will not happen thanks to the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their Armed Forces.
656  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Will Doge really go to the moon? on: February 21, 2023, 07:12:57 AM
I don't know whether Dogecoin will be supported by Elon Musk again or whether Elon Musk will move to another coin so that the price can increase. But Elon can indeed move its price up as we saw with Dogecoin some time ago.

It's possible that Dogecoin could hit $1 this year or the next and no one knows if that will happen or if it could just hit ATH yesterday again. This is still a mystery that no one knows and we should follow the market price. And as long as the price of Dogecoin can touch the peak price, that's the right price for us to sell Dogecoin and take profits.
To have good growth opportunities, Dogecoin needs to have additional useful features. Because there are already a lot of coins on the cryptocurrency market without such functions, and there is little chance of counting on another hype due to some actions of Elon Musk. This coin is unlikely to reach the price of one dollar. There are many much more worthy cryptocurrencies in this market than Dogecoin.
657  Economy / Economics / Re: No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream? on: February 20, 2023, 06:40:44 PM
I doubt petrol/diesel cars will be phased out by then. Petro states will surely be against this big time and they will not allow this to happen at all costs. There probably would be a large cut on the number of ICE cars that will be produced but they will never be removed from the markets until the oil from these petro states are completely depleted and there's no more oil to be had. Perhaps a lot of countries will opt to a lot of hybrids in the coming years instead of fully abandoning petrol cars, and that is the safer option IMO.
This law bans the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles in the EU from 2035. And this means that old cars running on gasoline and diesel fuel will continue to drive on the roads of the European Union for a long time to come. But the law itself is useful and necessary. The need to phase out gasoline and diesel internal combustion engines is evident due to the current rapid climate change. If the climate continues to change and many countries see this as an obvious danger, then the transition to electric cars may even accelerate. On the other hand, every year electric cars will improve and become cheaper. So this law in the EU, I think, will work in a timely manner.
658  Economy / Economics / Re: Bank of Russia to Pilot CBDC in April on: February 20, 2023, 05:05:33 AM
I am really skeptical if they would make any sensible pilot program working.
But even if they would get it working i wonder if anyone would want to touch it as any proper CBDC needs KYC:ing and most likely people from "unfriendly" countries and members of opposition, people with wrong opinions about Kremilin would instantly get their CBDC rubles frozen and confiscated.
Russia has been living under ever-increasing international sanctions for almost a year now, and this leaves an imprint on all aspects of the state’s activities, and above all its banking system, given that almost all Russian banks are now disconnected from the SWIFT international payment system. Therefore, they are looking for a way out of the difficult current situation that arose due to the military attack on Ukraine.
At the same time, if the emergence of CBDC in other countries is a completely new and relatively risky project, then in Russia it is doubly risky. And yet little is known about him. Even whether it will use blockchain technology. Of course, the digital ruble can be used in international settlements where it is difficult to do this due to the shutdown of SWIFT. But let's see how it will be in practice.
659  Economy / Economics / Re: Forget a return to office: We’re living in the age of side hustles on: February 20, 2023, 04:30:36 AM
Definitely we are living in the era of side hustles. With all the reasons plotted above there are also valid reasons like need of “multiple income” sources considering increased cost of living while less salary hikes for the fixed salary jobs.

There is even craze of doing “moonlight works” everywhere. By definition it means one person joining 2 or more than 2 companies at the same time to earn more money. This tells us the story that living has become very hard. If you don’t have bank accounts full of cash then you have to keep struggling with side hustles and moon Light work.
The Internet and new technologies open up new opportunities for most of us, including such a type of work as teamwork, but at home. But these changes cannot be called global. A much larger proportion of jobs still use the traditional approach to work because manufacturing and other activities cannot be done online. A part-time job existed before, just with the advent of the Internet, the possibility of communication in the process of work without personal presence has significantly increased. But this applies only to a certain part of society.
660  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The economic danger of China and Taiwan war on: February 18, 2023, 07:01:33 AM

But, the fact that Russia ended up attacking Ukraine and nobody stopped them (even though helped, but not directly) and the worst that happened was sanctions, then we could assume that China could get away with it as well, who knows? That’s why we can never be 100% sure that China won't attack anywhere, there is a chance, high or low, but a chance of them doing it.
If Russia suffers a crushing defeat in the war on the territory of Ukraine, the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan will also noticeably drop. The Chinese leadership is already behaving much more cautiously, having seen how civilized states have united in helping Ukraine with financial, humanitarian and military support. If the world community had given the same support to Georgia back in 2008, when Russian tanks invaded the territory of this country, then Putin would hardly have dared to attack Ukraine. But even in 2014, when Russia seized the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, as well as parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the world community reacted very passively, which made it possible for Putin to continue military aggression.
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