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721  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 06:52:14 PM
Well, lucky that you emigrated when price was a couple of orders of magnitude lower than now. Will you be of the same opinion if you emigrated when it was 1100$, or if you saw your last 6 months of job rewards shrink 20% in a day? I don't think so. But please keep defining others that struggle every day 'retarded'.
So now we have 2 major personalities here: the cocky early adopter that just nailed the universe, life and everything; and the whiny shroomkit whose mission is to 'talk' the price to the desired level.
You're making unwarranted assumptions about how many Bitcoins I own.

Anyway, it's a matter of time preference and planning.

If I would have chosen exactly 1 year ago to go all-in Bitcoin, it would have made no difference.

Suppose for the same of argument that it's 2013, my income is not pegged to bitcoin, I get paid in btc, and that I can save 50% of my earnings.

Jump forward today and using bitcoin as my unit of account, what's happened since then equivalent to a 3x pay raise, because the number of bitcoins I'd be adding to my savings now would be triple what I was adding a year ago.

Edit: Bitcoin is the best unit of account.
722  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 06:36:15 PM
So, to be clear, day-trading is bad and bounded to failure but month-trading or year-trading ('investing') is all good and dandy. Is that correct?
I don't trade.

I emigrated.
723  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 06:34:23 PM
There's another way to "win" at this: get out while you're on top. Works in conjunction with "random results", but is hard to do, because when you're having a lucky streak, it's usually quite a bit of fun.. why leave?
Same strategy works on slot machines.

It's fine for people who understand they are gambling, but there's a tendency for people to start believing they that it's a game of skill instead of a game of chance.
724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 06:30:38 PM
What about all those little barracudas that do both, just to survive? Do you really consider them retarded, from the highs of your lucky-early-adopter-loaded position?
It's not a matter of how many Bitcoins I do or do not have - it's a known fact that day trading (in general, not specific to BItcoin) is a negative sum game.

Anybody who is not cheating is just achieving random returns.

Over long time scales, the lifetime returns of all investors converge to the same average value (except for the ones that manage to cheat).
725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 06:00:06 PM
It will just get worse till all the buyers are gone.
Bitcoin isn't immune to this shit.
"All the buyers" will never be gone.

I keep buying Bitcoins, once per month, in the form of receiving a (fiat denominated) paycheck in btc.

Every month I add to my savings a considerable fraction of what I get paid.

The evil manipulators can do exactly two things to me: they can cause me too add more Bitcoins to my savings each month, or they can increase the purchasing power of my savings.

Since I don't expect to need those savings for many years, I'd highly prefer the former over the latter, but I win either way.

Working for a living is so much easier than daytarding.
726  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 05:43:41 PM
I wonder 2 things:

1: Will the traders try to kill Bitcoin for another year?

2: Will Bitcoin even survive another year of this shit. How much longer will there be buyers before everyone gives up? This can't and won't go on forever.
Killing Bitcoin that way didn't work in 2011. Why would it work now?
727  Other / Off-topic / Re: Time to switch to i2P? on: November 08, 2014, 05:16:25 PM
I2P is very similar to Tor technologically. If the Feds are using technical attacks against Tor, then the same attacks will probably also work against I2P. In fact, some attacks are easier against I2P because it has far fewer users and its network isn't carefully managed in the same way that Tor's network is.
What I2P has going for it is a better theoretical basis, and a focus on hidden services rather than proxying to the clearnet.

The only thing Tor has going for it is more users - if I2P has the same number of nodes I'd expect their hidden services to be more secure than Tor's hidden services.
728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 08:40:36 PM
One bust is a fluke. Two busts is worrying. Three... One may start to think the online drug market business is too risky.
Last year there were 4 operating markets and one got busted.

This year there were 18 operating markets and 3 got shut down.

Odds of getting busted fell from 25% to 17%.
729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 07:01:03 PM
It's not the buying of drugs online that puzzles me. Seems to beat the alternative of having to deal with potentially hazardous interactions with drug dealers on the street.

What escapes me is how they solve the problem of having to provide a shipping address at some point. That seems like the real weak point to me, as a buyer. (Yes, I know, PO boxes exist, but to my knowledge, renting one usually requires some form of ID).

Anyone knows how the actual customers solve this dilemma? Hoping they stay below the threshold for being targeted by LE?
It's generally less profitable for LE to go after the buyers as opposed to the sellers, so the buyers worry less than the sellers.
730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 03:03:17 PM
http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/rae9_2_3.pdf

Natural monopoly theory is thoroughly debunked.

I don't get it, there are literally hundreds of examples for monopolies in free markets.
You misspelled "zero."
731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 01:54:01 PM
By your logic shouldn't we already have a single global currency because that is where we would logically converge to?

The world has been trying to converge to a single global currency for many decades. It takes concerted effort by national governments to resist this pressure.

A free market would converge to a single currency.

What I think is that you are implying the convergence to a monopoly, a single globally accepted digital currency.
If you're using the word "monopoly" you're thinking of this in the wrong terms.

Currencies are communication standards, like alphabets, or numerical systems, or the metric system, or charging plugs for mobile phones.

Competing standards introduce friction, which the market continually works to erase.

This is a widely observed phenomenon.

I don't think it is in the nature of humanity to agree. There will always be people wanting something else
How nice for you.

Hint: Maybe try something some epistemology?
732  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 12:52:58 PM
I'm only trying to point out that people should avoid adopting a black or white stance on bitcoin.
It is not an all-or-nothing thing where either bitcoin succeeds or some other alt does but they do not want to accept the possibility of co-existence.
Unfortunately for your desires, reality does not cooperate with that position.

Money is an all-or-nothing proposition because of opportunity cost.

Every Bitcoin one holds is held at the exclusion of every other possible use for that money, especially other currencies.

The act of holding Freicoin instead of Bitcoin has a calculable cost associated with that action.

If the benefits of holding Freicoin do not exceed that cost, then nobody will hold Freicoin.

When we're talking about the opportunity costs associated with currencies, then it's even worse for small currencies.

The opportunity costs associated with not holding the largest currency increase greater-than-linearly based on the relative difference in adoption between the two currencies.

733  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 05:37:58 AM
Jorge and ripple seem like a good match but in the long run they might both be dead.
I see what you did there.
734  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 06, 2014, 02:19:22 AM
It seems obvious to me.

They're the redhat for Bitcoin.

They build decentralized infrastructure for companies on top of sidechains.

Let me spin the question around and ask how they could maliciously profit from sidechains?
Their customers will attempt to build moats by creating improvements in sidechains, and those moats would be threatened by having that capability in Bitcoin.

If their revenue comes from having customers, they have an incentive to take actions that benefit their customers, such as using their influence to delay or block progress in Bitcoin.
735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 06, 2014, 02:11:27 AM
its a test bed as Justus put it to stop Bitcoin type innovation making it to the Bitcoin. if a SC innovation gets traction you bet it wont be adopted, the incentives are the wrong way around.

Whose incentives?

If we use the same ledger who gets any more incentive for using one particular chain or the other?
Nobody has answered yet what the revenue model for Blockstream is.

Until they explain themselves, it's reasonable to assume they intent to derive some financial benefit from the existence and usage of sidechains.

In that case, clearly any innovations in the main chain that reduce the need for sidechains are a threat to the revenue of Blockstream.

Unless they offer an alternate explanation of how (or if?) they intend to repay their investors, this looks like a severe conflict of interests.
736  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 01:01:56 AM
Bitcoin is a clumsy throwback to the gold standard days.  The rest of the world has long since discovered the benefits of elastic money supply--benefits proven both empirically and through the works of John Maynard Keynes, the father of modern economics.

Bitcoiners, gold bugs and other Austrian School vandals now wish to destroy decades of economic progress, thrusting the world back into pre-Keynesian economic darkness.
This is absolutely true.

The ruling classes and their minions who control the issuance of money reap enormous benefits from an elastic money supply.

A fixed money supply truly is a dark age as far as they are concerned. Millions of people who will suddenly be forced to get real jobs, to earn only what their skills will generate via voluntary market exchanges instead of what they can enjoy by earn via the politics of pull.

For that class of people, Bitcoin is an unmitigated catastrophe.
737  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 06, 2014, 12:25:48 AM
Bitcoin the currency will never leave Bitcoin the Blockchain, even with sidechains.  Sidechains just gives you more potential uses for your Bitcoins.... locking them gains you tokens that have added functionality.
Side chains create a place to experiment with new functionality, and also create people who have an financial incentive to make sure that functionality never makes it into the main chain.

Do you where else it's possible to test new features?

Testnet.

Where is it possible to test features too invasive for even testnet?

The btcd team has produced a great feature called simnet where you can easily bootstrap a small mining network that tests modifications of the Bitcoin protocol.

All the tools needed to develop and test safe upgrades to the protocol already exist.

If the Bitcoin Core team doesn't have enough software engineering and project management resources to push the protocol forward now, employing half of them at Blockstream and adding new opcodes to Bitcoin isn't going to magically fix anything.

You know, the Blockstream idea must have been going on for at least a year.

Had anyone stopped to think that maybe no innovations have gotten done because the core devs involved with Blockstream have wanted to strengthen their case? 
The first time I heard about this idea (before it was called sidechains) was a conference where I met Adam Back. Pretty sure it was the first Inside Bitcoins conference in Las Vegas, if not then it would have been the 2013 San Jose conference.
738  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2014, 06:39:08 PM
Of course this meme is a Trojan horse.  Once one has accepted the importance of a decentralized, trustless, and unforgeable ledger, it's a much smaller step to realize that our most important records (and also the one's most tempting to alter) should be stored on that ledger.  These records are money itself. Bitcoin will force the world to re-learn what money is...  
The largest risk of that strategy is underestimating the intelligence of whomever the Trojan horse is supposed to fool.
739  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2014, 06:20:55 PM
Unless that is the reason.
I swear I saw a post once where one of the wallet developers (Hivewallet???) announced it was his personal and professional goal to break the limited issuance of Bitcoin as a currency.
740  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 04, 2014, 08:31:41 PM
I hear ya bro.  I hope that 'artificial production quota' limiting BTC availability to 21 million doesn't drive you to crazy.
If you can't figure out the difference ledger integrity and production quotas then you're probably not going to be able to offer much of value to this discussion.
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