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1521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2014, 10:33:23 PM
Meanwhile, in the real world, everyone will ignore the IRS.  This is bad, because it is part of a pervasive and creeping contempt for rule of law.  In the end we all suffer for that.  The fix is to void all the ludicrous, often criminal in themselves, laws.  That would be roughly, let's see, one two three... all of them.
The USA in 2014 is the USSR in the late 1980s.

Nobody believes the charade any more, not even the people supposedly running it:

http://stockman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/stockman-bill-allows-taxpayers-to-use-same-lame-excuses-as-irs

Quote
Under Stockman’s bill, “The Dog Ate My Tax Receipts Act,” taxpayers who do not provide documents requested by the IRS can claim one of the following reasons:

1.         The dog ate my tax receipts
2.         Convenient, unexplained, miscellaneous computer malfunction
3.         Traded documents for five terrorists
4.         Burned for warmth while lost in the Yukon
5.         Left on table in Hillary’s Book Room
6.         Received water damage in the trunk of Ted Kennedy’s car
7.         Forgot in gun case sold to Mexican drug lords
8.         Forced to recycle by municipal Green Czar
9.         Was short on toilet paper while camping
10.       At this point, what difference does it make?

Number 10 is what people say who are looking for an exit strategy.
1522  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the most easiest way to turn your bitcoins to fiat? on: June 20, 2014, 04:28:35 PM
I prefer coinbase though
You know they're a honeypot, right? Using Coinbase to turn bitcoins into USD is a great way to being harassed/audited by the IRS, even if you think you're doing everything correctly.

They'll also get interested if you're purchasing large quantities. I know somebody who is going through this right now. He used Coinbase to turn six figures worth of cash into bitcoins that he'd been holding on to from cashing out stock options back in 2012, then all of a sudden this year the IRS decided to dispute his basis calculation.

As it turned out they were wrong and actually he had overpayed so they had to give him a refund, but the refund did not come close to covering the time he lost to dealing with them.
1523  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the most easiest way to turn your bitcoins to fiat? on: June 20, 2014, 03:54:11 PM
The price you can obtain on LocalBitcoins depends on your reputation.

If you're willing to start with low margins and build up your reviews you will eventually get the trades from the people who will pay more to deal with somebody with the best reviews.
1524  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bolivia Bans Bitcoins! on: June 19, 2014, 11:47:09 PM
By any chance, are you Peruvian?

Peruvians view Bolivians the way *most* Americans view Mexicans.

That is, not in the highest esteem.
It's fun to ask Peruvians about pisco, especially what they think of Chilean pisco.
1525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2014, 09:36:22 PM
Just noticed the poll results are almost perfectly centred on 100%
1526  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why satoshi is gone? on: June 19, 2014, 08:56:00 PM
Likely he's still around, he just isn't calling himself Satoshi.
I agree with this theory, and the one about him leaving behind the Satoshi identity because of Gavin visiting the CIA.
1527  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bolivia Bans Bitcoins! on: June 19, 2014, 08:03:03 PM
South Americans, in general, are much more acutely aware of the precarious nature of government-issued money than North Americans and Europeans.

If a central bank is actively denouncing Bitcoin, then many of them will automatically start taking it more seriously.
1528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 19, 2014, 07:13:04 PM
on very good authority a major swiss bank is now refusing customer withdrawals of physical bullion and insisting on cash (fiat) settlement only ... this is a pattern that has become more and more widespread but Swiss banks out of gold? really? yes really.
Gold owners are getting Goxxed?
1529  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Double spending has already happened when will protocol be fixed? on: June 19, 2014, 04:55:11 PM
The blockchain defines the order of transactions.  If we had some way to determine which transaction was "broadcast first", we wouldn't bother with all of the hashing.


There is no such thing as objective reality in a distributed system (unless one is God).  There are two problems here, first physical reality itself is not totally ordered, and second, each person has access to only his individual sense perceptions and measurements unless he trusts others.  In short, your "objective" reality is not mine, especially if I don't happen to trust you.  (From recent forum posts, it would seem prudent not to trust a large number of posters, so please don't take my remark personally.)

It is logically impossible to achieve reliable consensus in a distributed asynchronous system.  This was proven decades ago by Nancy Lynch et. al., and the proof didn't even require malicious nodes, just nodes that could fail or run slowly. Bitcoin doesn't circumvent this proof.  That's because Bitcoin does not ever give 100% confirmation that a transaction was committed.  Bitcoin does not and can not do what is logically impossible. One can circumvent this situation by positing the existence of a reliable central authority who controls the network and serves as "the decider", but then everyone will have to trust this "decider". (And when this "decider" goes "out to lunch" one will still have to wait to see if one's transaction was confirmed.)   This is not what bitcoin is about.

The amount of people who think they have something meaningful to say about double spending, and who also do not fully understand these statements, boggles the mind.
1530  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread on: June 18, 2014, 06:20:45 PM
On the other hand ,there is a flaw in my algorithm -- it seems to use CPU-timings instead of wall-timings.
That might explain why the estimates are grossly inaccurate on an IO-bound virtual machine.

I just experienced a 31 minute wait to start up, when it had less than 3 days worth of new blocks to process.

"Time Remaining" never exceeded 2 minutes.

1531  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: blockchain size Do we really need 20 gbs of data? on: June 18, 2014, 06:06:49 PM
Anyway, don't expect it to happen within the next 10 years - not with this team, and ATM there isn't any other bitcoin software that would be suitable for mining.
It won't be long before there will be another Bitcoin implementation suitable for mining: https://blog.conformal.com/btcd-beta-announcement/
1532  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread on: June 18, 2014, 05:59:47 PM
Sometimes it feels like you used the "time remaining" algorithm from Windows 95, such as when the database rebuild progress displays 1.5 minutes remaining for 10 minutes.
1533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2014, 10:44:56 PM
Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we will see 100% sure 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we'll likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.
now that is what sound advice looks like.

+1 Can't be said often enough.
How to profit from Bitcoin:

1) Buy Bitcoins
2) Hold them for two years
3) Note how much you've gained in real terms over the last two years, and be honest about how much less you'd have had you daytraded
4) Keep hodling
1534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 15, 2014, 10:42:25 PM
But as a self admitted socialist, not only do you expect gov't intervention, you want it.
I've always envisioned tvbcof as the embodiment of the unprincipled, amoral pragmatism of the Baby Boomers, with the single redeeming quality of being notably more honest than most of them.

I really got that impression in some thread where the topic came up of the monstrous blight upon the planet the US empire has become, and tbconf's response was like, "meh, the other guys would have been worse."
1535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 15, 2014, 10:09:34 PM
Erdogan: Governments confiscating assets and taint seem like entirely different things to me. I read cypherdoc's post as implying a US Government agency has stated they will consider some bitcoins illegal to use due to their having reviously been associated with activities frowned upon by the US gov't. That's what I'd like clarified - has such a statement been made, and where?
No official public statements, just lots of indirect evidence:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=333824.0
1536  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "You should assume your IP address can be associated with you.." -Gavin Anderson on: June 15, 2014, 09:15:44 PM
It would be great if some transfer nodes were employing this technique in their communications, and if they were rewarded for doing so.  As things stand now transfer nodes are not even rewarded for providing transmission services within the network at all, much less for doing it in a defensive manner.  Alas.
Even though the Bitcoin reference implementation is not as modular as I'd like it to be, at least there's enough modularity that the P2P protocol is independent of the blockchain rules.

I know someone who's been doing theoretical work on how to create a self-organizing market for realtime data propagation. Perhaps one of these days that will turn into deployed software.
1537  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "You should assume your IP address can be associated with you.." -Gavin Anderson on: June 15, 2014, 08:46:05 PM
I've always been more concerned about timing analysis at the network level. 
There's a way to fix that, if you don't care about burning bandwidth.

Set up your node to transmit data to each peer at a fixed rate regardless of how much real traffic it actually has to send. Basically this would be 100% padding.

Disadvantages is that it eats up your bandwidth, and it puts a hard upper limit on the  maximum throughput of the network, but on the plus side timing attacks are useless.
1538  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The solution to 51% crisis has already been invented: getblocktemplate on: June 15, 2014, 06:47:24 PM
GBT does not solve the 51% problem at all.
Maybe the problem should be defined more precisely so that everybody can be sure they are talking about the same thing.
1539  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What's your percent chance that Bitcoin will be the "Myspace" of cryptos? on: June 15, 2014, 06:42:25 PM
The "Myspace" / "Facebook" analogy breaks down because of the economic concept of opportunity cost.

There is essentially nothing preventing a person from reaping as much utility as they're going to get out of both Myspace and Facebook simultaneously. Having a Myspace account in no way inhibited you from just going and signing up for Facebook when it became available. In fact it's probably the opposite, the kind of person that even cared about Myspace would also like Facebook.

With Bitcoin versus some unspecified future altcoin, there is a serious barrier. You don't have infinite money.
In addition to this, network effects are stronger for currencies than social networks.

Content on a social network depreciates rapidly. Currency does not (absent limitless issuance of more units).
1540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2014, 04:04:36 PM
Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all.  They merely agreed to accept dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had
And where do those dollars come from?

Not necessarily from the exchanges - why do you think BitPay et al. keep getting millions of dollars of outside investment? The payment processors are turning the dollars of their investors into bitcoins. Merchants might be doing the same thing.

What's especially interesting is Coinbase's announcement that they are making it easy for merchants to offer discounts, which is the same as valuing btc higher than the exchange price.

I think we're going to see price discovery move away from the exchanges and happen instead in the payment processors as investors get impatient about converting their dollars to btc so start telling the payment processors/merchants to increase their exchange rate to attract more sales.
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