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1381  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 11, 2014, 03:17:00 AM
There's a difference between long term behaviour and short term behaviour. In the short term, altcoins will continue to be a thing.

I actually think Litecoin might have another leg up left in it (note that altcoin/BTC is the only ratio that matters):

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

The reason I wouldn't be surprised by a bounce is because, unlike every other altcoin I've looked, the bid/ask ratio is actually favourable. Most altcoins have many times more asks than bids.
1382  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 11, 2014, 02:24:06 AM
Well...not sure I agree they will "die" as in the way I would define it but price will fall yes.

Arbitrage will exist. As long as there is a price...people will trade it. You know me I'm a LTC supporter. I don't believe it is going away..but yes the price can go down.
Do standalone BBSs still exist these days?

Probably, but who cares? Their existence and importance is negligible.

The network effect means the market will always seek a single unit of account. It takes massive external interventions to thwart this process. Altcoins don't have armies and police forces attacking anyone who doesn't use them, so they will go the way of the dial up BBSs (or else, Bitcoin will fuck up massively and one of the altcoins will take its place, with Bitcoin fading to oblivion).
1383  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do Bitcoin enthusiasts use IRC? on: July 11, 2014, 01:19:26 AM
One of the reasons I am asking this question is because I am half tempted to relaunch my old company and accept BTC as the primary payment option. But it really wasn't very profitable for me towards the end of the companies existence and was a decent amount of work keeping it going.
The people who use IRC now tend to be the people who want to self-host that kind of thing. Also Freenode now has a web client, so my guess is that it would be difficult for a paid service to differentiate itself well. You'd need to have a lot of value-add features beyond simply running am IRC bouncer.

I've only used ZNC, not BNC, but I presume BNC also has channel buffer replay support. In addition to automatically repaying channel buffers when a client connects, you could store them and make them accessible on a convenient and searchable web interface.

Another feature you could add is proxy OTR. For people who connect with a client that lacks OTR support, you could make the bouncer negotiate the OTR for them and relay the result. This isn't a thing a user should do if they can do the OTR on their side, but it's an improvement over not using OTR at all, which is what they'd do without that service.
1384  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Please stop turning into morons just because you see "Brock Pierce" somewhere on: July 10, 2014, 09:53:33 AM
We need a decentralized exchange! First step? Get USD into a digital decentralized form!
My problem with Realcoin is that they've got a confused conceptual model (pegged currency vs promissory notes) and they unnecessarily build on Mastercoin for no benefit for letting Mastercoin holders do another P&D to cash out like they did with the Maidsafe IPO.

Don't particularly care that Brock Pierce is involved.
1385  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very severe blow to bitcoin on: July 10, 2014, 07:34:35 AM
The only positive thing I can say about The Bitcoin Foundation is that they have played a major part in destroying most of the philosophical hopes I had for the solution and thereby paved the way for me to feel OK about milking the shit out of it's success irrespective of the impact my actions may have.
Would you really have acted differently had BF not shown up?
1386  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 10, 2014, 07:02:06 AM
Not enough people realize this yet:

Quote
Everyone admonishes people to not borrow in order to buy bitcoins. The reality is that money is fungible: if you buy bitcoins instead of paying down your mortgage's principal, you are a leveraged bitcoin investor. Almost everyone is a leveraged bitcoin investor, because it makes economic sense (within reason). The cost of borrowing (annualized interest rates ranging from 0% to 25%) is lower than the expected return of owning bitcoins.

This is the carry trade to end all carry trades. Once people start to figure that out...
1387  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Help me set up a merchant on: July 10, 2014, 06:16:39 AM
Okay - how does this address the chargeback risk?   What if the customer does a chargeback to Coinvoice?   Is his BTC taken from him?   Why would Coinvoice want to take all the chargeback risk?   Seems like a bad business model for them.
Coinvoice takes on the chargeback risk in exchange for a 3% processing fee.
1388  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin defined on: July 10, 2014, 05:48:25 AM
Is the Internet a network of networks, or a global inter-network routing protocol stack, or is it just the Internet?
1389  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NSA and ECC on: July 10, 2014, 03:54:32 AM
Well Bitcoin could always support a second curve.   A curve over F(p) where P = 2^256 - 2^32 - 236, call it Secp256k2 Smiley.  I know I am highly original in my naming convention.
One of these: http://safecurves.cr.yp.to/bada55.html
1390  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very severe blow to bitcoin on: July 10, 2014, 03:11:32 AM
That's why we don't need a foundation. What we need is a set of independent crowdfunded projects.
But, but, how will independent crowdfunded projects feather their nests by building a new revolving door regulatory agency they can milk for a pension?
1391  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 10, 2014, 02:27:16 AM
Even better article by Rochard:

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

He doesn't use the term in this article, but what he describes is the greatest carry trade in history.
1392  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin's Rugged Individualism on: July 10, 2014, 02:04:30 AM
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/bitcoins-rugged-individualism/

Quote from: Daniel Krawsiz



Bitcoin and the Agency Problem

Whereas for earlier moneys, it was generally the case that most people could expect to be better off storing the bulk of their money with agents, for Bitcoin the opposite is true. The Bitcoin network obviates traditional financial institutions and there are really only two agents that Bitcoin users need: exchanges and payment processors. The exchanges are temporary; they are only required because fiat currencies require them. Once the fiat currencies have died, centralized currency exchanges will no longer be required. As for payment processors, they are only required over time scales of about an hour or less to ensure that a transaction gets into the block chain. With Bitcoin there is no need for anything like a bank that would store bitcoins over a long term.

Being nearly superfluous is not the only problem with Bitcoin agents. To whomsoever a private key to a Bitcoin address is known, the bitcoins it holds are far easier to control than dollars or gold are under almost any circumstance. This is because controling bitcoins is simply a matter of keeping a number secret and requires neither securing physical matter (as with gold) or the permission of issuers (as with dollars). Thus there is a fundamental agency problem with Bitcoin. Agents can disappear or simulate a heist upon themselves. They cannot rationally be trusted without extreme costs being imposed on them which are more stringent than traditional banks. Furthermore, agents must advertise their services and consequently become the targets of hackers. They must take extreme measures to achieve a level of security similar to that which an individual person achieves with much less.

The inherent agency problem in Bitcoin is borne out by Bitcoin's extraordinary history of hacks and thefts. Bitcoin institutions seem to be worse than the banks that Bitcoin replaces. As Bitcoin proponents must point out repeatedly to naysayers, people lose bitcoins not by an inherent flaw in the protocol, but by misuse. They stored them with Mt. Gox, Atlantis Market, or one of many other companies that imploded or disappeared. Bitcoin has had a problem with amateurish entrepreneurs, but I expect that we will see continued failures even when established institutions attempt to use Bitcoin.

Despite this, there are still a lot of Bitcoin agents. The practice of storing bitcoins in web wallets, like those provided by CoinBase and Circle, abounds. People are still used to dealing with banks as a necessary evil and are not yet comfortable with the skills required to safeguard a private key. This is a problem because it means Bitcoin adoption requires a real change in peoples' habits. Everything that helps people to learn new habits is greatly appreciated.

The only solutions to the agency problem are either to remove agents or to remove their agency. In other words, people must either take control of their own bitcoins or, if they do not wish to, they must cede control of their bitcoins in a way that does not give control to an agent. The only way to do this is to spread the control over many different parties who are not expected to collude. This could be done with multisig wallets or Open Transaction voting pools. This is a fairly drastic solution because it means no one can do anything with the bitcoins on his agency alone.

Bitcoin Institutions

The agency problem becomes especially interesting when it comes to Bitcoin organizations because an organization has no autonomy of its own and all its members act as agents to it. All, whether employees or owners, have a similar incentive and ability to steal that other Bitcoin agents have. This is not a new problem, but Bitcoin gives it a new character.

An organization inherently cannot take control of its own bitcoins, so its only solution is to remove the agency of its own employees and owners. It is not enough for an organization to distribute keys between its own people, although that will help. However, it is much easier for people within an organization to collude than without, and furthermore within an organization people will tend to have similar characters so the probabilities that each is a bad actor are not independent of one another. Votes must come from different organizations on order to maximize the security of the wallet.

Criminal Organizations

Whereas individuals can do whatever they want with their bitcoins, organizations must seek outside approval. They must subject themselves to constant auditing in order to deserve any measure of trust. It has long been understood that Bitcoin gives more control to individuals, but the complement to that is not yet well enough understood. I believe history has shown it to be an important effect, but it is not yet clear how important it will be. Maybe people will be able to work around it or maybe they will have to replace most organizations with distributed systems.

Of course, the requirement of being constantly audited and losing control over the funds it holds is less of a problem for honest organizations. It is much worse for criminal organizations or for organizations that want to keep their internal operations secret. Mafias, cults, and governments will have a greater difficulty adapting to Bitcoin than will publicly-traded companies.

All organizations tend to evolve so as to resist change, but governments, being subject to the problems of socialism, suffer much worse from this because government operations lack a clear concept of efficiency their overall success, the relative importance of any of its parts, or the relative merits of alternative organizational structuring. Consequently, governments can more easily evolve into labyrinthian structures that nobody understands without anyone realizing what is happening.

An eye-opening article called Sinkhole of Bureaucracy describes a surreal example of this phenomenon in an outstandingly incisive way. In an abandoned Pennsylvania mine, which is now an office containing 600 federal employees and endless filing cabinets, process all the federal retirement pensions on paper by hand. The system is widely understood to be insane and dysfunctional, but despite repeated and ceaseless attempts to automate the process beginning in the early 80's, the system has not changed. It is not a problem of will, but of knowledge: there is no one available with the skills to carry through the transition successfully, no one who knows precisely what those skills would be, and no one who can evaluate anyone else for them. As a result, the attempts to develop an automated process failed because the software engineers did not understand the laws and the bureaucracy well enough to design something correctly, and the bureaucrats did not know how to tell if the software engineers knew what they were doing.

Will the federal government be able to adapt to Bitcoin? This would require building an a system not just for the one department, but for the entire organization, and it would have to be built properly—it must distribute decisions enough so that bitcoins cannot be stolen easily by employees. After reading that article, I think it is reasonable to think that the government may not be up to such a task at all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mu1iND6vtcE
1393  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Talked someone into bitcoin only to bail because his bank saying its a scam on: July 10, 2014, 01:45:01 AM
The primary factor in it was money laundering and untraceable money.
That's exactly why Bitcoin is better money. The fact that it's increasingly difficult to use Dollars for that purpose is why the USD is a scam.
1394  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very severe blow to bitcoin on: July 10, 2014, 12:45:54 AM
It's just a Mastercoin pump.
I heard Brock's new coins was called Realcoin.
It is, but it's based on Mastercoin.

It's another P&D like the Maidsafe IPO.
1395  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2014-07-09] Have Brock Pierce and Realcoin copied Coinaaa? on: July 10, 2014, 12:19:44 AM
Coinaaa has a centralized blockchain making it impossible to attack (or mine).


Have you listened to yourself? You can't artificially increase 'value' or price over time unless you're controlling the whole market and fixing prices, prices are affected by the the amount of money in circulation and the total supply of money, you sound suspiciously like a neo-keynesian economist and you're overcomplicating something that is actually pretty simple.

I'm also not about to trust a coin developer that hasn't listed the total supply of coins and how many dollars will be flooding the market, it all stinks of a con and so does the coin being promoted on this thread.

If you take the Realcoin people at their word, what they are actually trying to create is not a currency - it's a bank. You have an institution that accepts deposits as a custodian, and issues promissory notes which can trade as a medium of exchange and redeemed on demand for the underlying asset.

The price of the notes is the price underlying assets combined with a discount which accounts for default risk, combined with a convenience premium which accounts for the improved liquidity of the notes compared to the assets (which might be 0% or negative).
1396  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2014, 11:50:38 PM
Reminds me of the awful times in the realms of 450.
Reminds me of the awful times in the realms of $10.
1397  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very severe blow to bitcoin on: July 09, 2014, 11:46:03 PM
Not only is it an alt coin it is a really stupid alt coin - one of the worst ideas ever.
It's just a Mastercoin pump.

Too many investors are unhappy about getting stuck with a useless and illiquid failure.
1398  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very severe blow to bitcoin on: July 09, 2014, 11:01:39 PM
All the core developers who were with Bitcoin at the beginning are starting to leave, this could actually affect the price, especially if the Bitcoin foundation still has the ability to fuck with the network unless the community can create their own fork we all agree on.
We don't need to fork Bitcoin Core.

We have btcd.

We also have Obelisk.

Bitcoin doesn't need satoshi's client any more than the web needed Mosaic.
1399  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Summary of Phinnaeus Gage's Investigation into Brock Pierce Thus Far on: July 09, 2014, 10:58:33 PM
It's worth reviewing this story and its associated references:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/dec/29/fbi-coordinated-crackdown-occupy

Quote
The document – reproduced here in an easily searchable format – shows a terrifying network of coordinated DHS, FBI, police, regional fusion center, and private-sector activity so completely merged into one another that the monstrous whole is, in fact, one entity: in some cases, bearing a single name, the Domestic Security Alliance Council. And it reveals this merged entity to have one centrally planned, locally executed mission. The documents, in short, show the cops and DHS working for and with banks to target, arrest, and politically disable peaceful American citizens.

Keep this in mind every time you hear somebody spread the "bitcoin is bad for the environment" or "the blockchain tech is separate from the currency" meme:

http://21stcenturywire.com/2014/02/25/snowden-training-guide-for-gchq-nsa-agents-infiltrating-and-disrupting-alternative-media-online/
1400  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Summary of Phinnaeus Gage's Investigation into Brock Pierce Thus Far on: July 09, 2014, 10:37:59 PM
1) They're just trying to exploit the current misguided euphoria over "separating the currency from the network" and "blockchain technology" in general.
Everything else you said was right except for this.

It's not innocent misguided euphoria - it's a highly targeted and highly aggressive attack on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin as a unit of account is a clear and present danger to people massively invested in the fiat system, so naturally they are responding. They will attempt to use the propaganda resources at their disposal to infiltrate this movement which threatens their investments and divert it in a new direction that does not.
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