We have broken the trend defining hypothetical wave c of B. Having not retraced a healthy fib level this leaves us with the other likely option that wave B is a triangle. when we break out of this triangle, it will be a strong signal to look to go long. I will be tracking the impulses in order to buy the dips. When confirmed, the turn of wave B will likely mark the beginning of an exciting bull run wave C to around 3000 yuan.  |
|
|
|
Cryptoalerts, I'd be glad to offer my view. A simple tool with EW to tell when we are accelerating upward is when the initial trend line defined by the II, B or x wave is broken.  This would be a sign of upward strength. With EW however sometimes price behaviour is more important than levels. We like to watch price approaching critical levels, and if it behaves how we like then we pounce. At the moment the forecast is a B wave which has been playing out as we expect, choppy, stagnant, unfriendly trading conditions. This will likely continue until a healthy fib retracement of wave A is complete or a significant amount of extra time sideways in a contracting triangle.  I am confident that we are slowly trending to low 2200s before a medium term reversal will take us much higher, perhaps to around 3000 yuan. We would need to see evidence impulsive behaviour before betting long however. |
|
|
|
What happens after we hit the big C, we go to the moon ?
Not immediately but the trend will change to the upside. Yet, there is a different count where Wave A from chessnut's graph is actually Wave C and has B as an X-wave which means we're currently in Wave A of an extended correction which would take us well into 2015, something similar to this: https://www.tradingview.com/v/42UOcWtJ. It's too early to tell though. We'll have to wait for the present downtrend to end and pay close attention to how the subsequent upside move plays out. Such a IV wave would be too extended to be plausible, but its possible. Look at the weekly chart. wave V is already overdue. |
|
|
|
Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.
The market is a natural system. Supply and demand are as old as the hills and can be simplified to a science, economics. Forces of the market act to restore equilibrium, it is the model of a simple sine wave. Because of interference, when external forces apply change to the market new waves must superimpose themselves in simple natural ratios of each other and expand into fibonacci ratios in complex systems. Just as every note on the piano is derived from a single pitch and the ratios 1/2 and 2/3. How can the market then behave naturally without fractals when there are practically an infinite amount of large and small forces at work within it? The waves that roll up on the beach in cycles of seven at a precise interval are the result of a random system. every ripple cause by the gusty winds of a pressure system superimpose to form enormous wave. you cant predict the ripple, you can predict the wave but they are one and the same thing. the grand average size of retracements in the dow jones calculated from opening price, closing price and average price is equal to 0.618. thats all retracements, great and small. What you have just written is 100% bullshit. why dont you give a sophisticated answer? because you cant |
|
|
|
Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.
The market is a natural system. Supply and demand are as old as the hills and can be simplified to a science, economics. Forces of the market act to restore equilibrium, it is the model of a simple sine wave. Because of interference, when external forces apply change to the market new waves must superimpose themselves in simple natural ratios of each other and expand into fibonacci ratios in complex systems. Just as every note on the piano is derived from a single pitch and the ratios 1/2 and 2/3. How can the market then behave naturally without fractals when there are practically an infinite amount of large and small forces at work within it? The waves that roll up on the beach in cycles of seven at a precise interval are the result of a random system. every ripple cause by the gusty winds of a pressure system superimpose to form enormous wave. you cant predict the ripple, you can predict the wave but they are one and the same thing. the grand average size of retracements in the dow jones calculated from opening price, closing price and average price is equal to 0.618. thats all retracements, great and small. |
|
|
|
It seems to be pointless
Fractals occur in many natural systems. They are relevant to how the market behaves. |
|
|
|
The dominant B wave forecast is playing out well, here is an updated chart of the larger wave C wave we have been tracking.  |
|
|
|
As a non-US person I strongly believe that watching the USD go tits up will be bad for the world. As much as I hate to say it, currently too much of the world depends on dollars. The world needs time to get out of the USD before we can let the USA blow up their debt based economy. I think America is a nice holiday country and it would be a sad thing watching it go down the shitter  Sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better. why and how would countries free themselves from the US dollar if they had more time? they've had plenty of time. The damage has already been done we just have to discover it. |
|
|
|
well done if you shorted the bounce.  |
|
|
|
madmat,
OKcoin is the best exchange I have ever used, very good liquidity. you can easily move bitcoin there and trade futures and leverage. Unfortunately there is no app for futures trading but no exchange is perfect.
On OKCoin, do futures contracts expire if they aren't exercised or are they automatically rolled over to the following week? Btw, I just opened an account and got Level 1 verification but I can't see a Margin tab for leverage trading.  trade futures for leverage or open a cny account. futures is easier imo, they can expire but if you want to hold just choose a longer contract like quarterly. there is no leverage for the exchange option, only futures you will find. |
|
|
|
The beauty of EW - you have to be right once, just keep tryin'  EW kinda sucks. If his prediction is wrong it's another wave. Rinse and repeat until you're right. Yep. It's good in long term prediction when charter knows what he is doing but even best of them suck big time in short term prediction. Hopefully people don't trade on advices from threads like this or they'll get burned short term 8 of 10 times. This particular period is not great for predictions in any strategy though but EW is same in any market conditions. No, you dont get it at all. you cant blame the analyst for the actions of a bad trader. I only speak in terms of probability on this thread, and yet if you have been paying attention to the success with the levels I have been targeting you would be winging on somebody else's thread. We have had a better than 50% success rate and a far greater risk/reward rate. |
|
|
|
If you have the patience to trade a potentially sluggish wave to ~350 then this would be the strategy. short any bounce and keep your stop above the green trend line, which is now about 2400. I dont usually like trading waves of B but this is a good risk reward, and levels are well defined. might be a bumpy ride and its hard to say the path it will most likely follow, so fasten your seat belts.  |
|
|
|
|
madmat,
OKcoin is the best exchange I have ever used, very good liquidity. you can easily move bitcoin there and trade futures and leverage. Unfortunately there is no app for futures trading but no exchange is perfect.
|
|
|
|
Noob EW question: At what point does the a-b-c count see invalidation? Crossing of 2420 CNY? Or will that still leave the doors open for a larger b? Also thank you for this thread. Don't listen to people saying you're impatient, the constant minute charts are a great way of helping me (and others) learn how to map the waves  In this case, it would have been invalidated if the price moved above the Wave A top of 2498 CNY. At the moment it looks like we've moved into wave c of B. +1 Having some impulsive behaviour downwards. as of this moment I can rule out wave i of C. I think we are headed to mid 300's. |
|
|
|
We did not break the 2430 level so wave C is not confirmed. We are breaking down after a sideways correction. This has large downside potential but there is still a looming possibility that we will find a floor to launch wave iii of hypothetical wave C. The most probable count here is minor c of B downwards. Not a safe place to be long here. major and minor count here  |
|
|
|
This impulsive price action is worth keeping an eye on. I have closed my short and I am looking for further evidence that wave C has begun. If we pass local highs, 2430 or so, that could mean we likely have wave iii coming our way (iii of C). Unfortunately wave ii was shallower than one would expect, slim profits for shorters. If we break out aggressively look to buy on a dip, stop loss 2391.  |
|
|
|
Thanks chessnut for sharing your thoughts and analysis, i really enjoy it, especially the fact that you are also using shorter timeframes. Would you mind to share which exchange you use for trading?
Hey Fonzie, Im glad you enjoy it I use Okcoin, and I'll never go back to bfx. |
|
|
|
 This seems to be a local top. two things are likely to unfold from here, both downwards. We are looking for an abc wave II to turn bullish down at around 2350, but it may continue all the way down and some more (2100-2200) to complete wave c of B, and then we can turn very bullish. Yes, this is a good risk reward shorting opportunity with a stop above local highs, but have you ever met the honey badger? I have |
|
|
|
This is likely how an impulse would unfold here  |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
