if everyone bought at say $6 in 2012. and just hoarded. all them 11mill coins in circulation at the time. never changing hands.
and the market only moved due to fresh mind coins. at mining cost of $200 in 2013 $2000 in 2017  $20,000 in 2021
then there would be 11million coins that would happily sell for anything from $20k all the way down to $6.20 and still feel they have profited.

however if those having 11mill coins colectively in 2012. sold 2mill in 2013
if then the 9m coin($6v) and 2m coin($200) then sold 4mill in 2015($400)
if then the 7m coin($6v) and 4m coin($400) then sold 6mill in 2017($2000)
if then the 5m coin($6v) and 6m coin($400) then sold 6mill in 2017($2000)

its now a market with instead of 11mill able to sell down to $6.20
there is now in 2017 a 6mill support that refuses to sell for less than $2k
so if the price was $2.1k and no one of the 6m2017 wanted to sell yet. then only the 5m 2012($6v) are on offer
and slowly there are less people willing to sell down to low numbers. and more people bringing up the base value

in short letting coins switch hands where the new owner sets new value, helps set new value

i personally use 2 metrics.
mining cost(lowest and highest costs).. and UTXO value at creation(price value when a transaction value last moved)

when have i ever assumed bitcoin is unlimited number of coins.?? never.

a market price is set by the last order filled.(no matter how many coins are in that order)

that order does not need to be 19million coins and doesnt need a buyer with $798b to set the price.
the last market order setting the price of $42k a coin can do it with just $4.20 buying just 0.0001btc
previous market order before that price of $41.9k a coin could of been just $4.19 buying just 0.0001btc

the market price does not need to sell whole bitcoins or whole circulations for whole btc value in dolar

yes a coin with all the features, uses and utility and security. aswell as a high security cost... AND then being scarce adds more weight to the desire.
but that desire does not come from just being scarce alone.



lets use this example
imagine buyers on 2 separate days just handed their value over. no matter how much coin was available
day 1 $840              1btc- $42k ($42k/btc)
the buyer can only buy 0.02btc and it doesnt fill the order to move the price
day 2 $84              0.001btc- $42.00 ($42k/btc)
                            0.001btc- $42.10 ($42.1k/btc)
the buyer can only buy 0.00199btc but it does move the price to $42.1k/btc

the demand($) has not increased. infact it has gone down, yet the price has moved up

as you can see its never a supply demand of how many allotments of $42k are fighting against how many allotments of whole btc
a price can move up even if a buyer only has $84 instead of $840 or $42k

..
what you find is that although there are 19m coins in circulation. people with btc are not dumb enough to flood the market. if the amount of $ is low, they make low orders offering lower amounts of sats to keep equilibrium to the market level to avoid mega crashes.

this is why we dont see the 'megawalls' of 1000btc as we did in 2013. because although in 2013 there were only 12mil coins in circulation and now there are 19mill which normally means more coins to sell/offer.. those in the selling position meet the $ amount with fair sat amount to prevent crashes. even when there are more coins in circulation than the previous years.

..
there are more coins in 2021 then there were in 2013.. so scarcity has not yet played a large weight into price discovery. much like a painters paintings are not worth a scarce value while he is alive because he can paint more..
but once a painter dies.. and once bitcoin reaches nearer the 21mill cap.. then scarcity plays a bigger role.

but right now bitcoins value is based on its utility,features, uses and cost of security its utility/features/uses.. with a small % sway in regards to scarity

cypherpunks 1998-2008 were looking at "smart contracts" in regards to 'p2p money' and kept running into the issue of who gets to audit/arbitrate/settle in situations of disagreement, dishonesty, blackmail, extortion.

smart contracts without blockchains can work in times of utopia/mutual agreement/co-operation. but the world is not perfect. which is why courts, auditors, arbitrators are used. and blockchains solves that by having an audit system that cant be corrupt as easily as a smart contract alone.

yes a blockchain of just 1cpu hash power is not as strong as a blockchain of 1.5million ASICS.. but in times of dishonesty. a blockchain of 1CPU is 1 step removed from the problem. because to defraud a blockchain require more then just deleting a file. it include having to do some work to replace someone elses copy.

yes PoS blockchains are less secure then 1.5millions asics. but a little more secure then 1cpu PoW . but blockchains as a whole is one extra step that prevents a smart contract from being simply deleted from existance.

oh and also
we all know that a centralised database or even a centralised blockchain is a single point of failure. where as even a cpu mined and 5 archive node public blockchain is more secure.

we can even go further.
where there is a network of independent peers. that have created their own unit of measure[token] that has no blockchain to settle against. by itself. is unsecure compared to settled blockchain coins. no matter what the blockchain hash mechanism strength is

we can go even further then that.
even if all users of a network of independent peers. all got a copy of everyones smart contract. but NONE of these were timestamped into a locked system which can categorically identify any edits/deletions. (by use of comparing hashes). is less secure then a ledger that is locking transactions into a block with a hash that can be used to test the block for edits

do you now see why the cypherpunks actually got excited and interested in blockchains invention.
when a guy in late 2008 announced an idea, and within a few months had a working software to show it working. it completely solved a problem cypherpunks were trying to scratch their head about for 10 years in regards to p2p money

market price has nothing to do with the 19million coins in circulation
market price is based on the last price of a market order. even if that order is for 0.001 coin

the reason people are willing to pay $42 for 0.001 or $42k for 1btc(same value)
is because they cannot get it cheaper anywhere else, and with all costs, effort, time, they think its better value to buy rather then mine in their circumstance.

if the mining cost was $1 they would most certainly mine it instead, and then try to sell at a 2x profit. which would end up having bitcoin value of $1-$2 if everyone done the same

but because mining the cheapest region on the planet is $31k a coin right now and $66k a coin in most expensive region, the value window is within that range.

..
the reason people desire bitcoin vs say a rare breed of dogs poop, that they can estimate only about 7200 piles of poop to exist with particular dog. is because bitcoin has:
a use (medium of exchange for goods and services)
features (transact immutably without a bank/partner co-signed permission)
utility(no borders)
security(block hash binding to prevent edits, decentralised ledger to prevent central points)
high security(more hashrate and associated cost, compared to other networks)
and much more, which give reason to the desire to invest in mining it and buying it, to then use or profit from it. as no one wants to sell at a loss (another element that strengthens value)

scarcity is not the only factor, as a rare dog which can only physically poop 7200 times in its life is not reason enough to value it highly

same with art. people can paint. but only a limited amount of paintings.. that alone does not give art value, people need to have other reasons why one piece of art is special, desirable, needed in their life

saying you read some blog in 2010. and then emailed your uncle.... (end of your story)
is not any proof of your uncle being anything but your uncle. or a recipient of a 2010 email

heck i sent emails to lots of people. doesnt mean they are satoshi.
trying to find an email from 2010 is of no factual importance or proof.

thats why i dont give any credit or importance to care about your uncle

heck. i can make a message now
from:franky1
to:mother
date:10/10/10
"are you satoshi"

from:mother
to:franky1
date:11/10/10
"yes son i am.. why dont you visit more often"

see. no proof

halving 2012- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $1.2k)
halving 2016- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $20k)
halving 2020- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $69k)

we have passed the super cycle and now in the slow volatile zone.

that said looking at the multiplier per cycle. we should see a 7-8x factor of the $20k ATH during the 2020-2024 halving periods

there is a point where something has to have a use/purpose/function/desire. yes if bitcoin had no function and was just a bunch of locked assets held forever in a trust owned by a company thats only value was the investment. then prices could go to $0. because no one would have to mine something that never has to move, and has no reward for trying to move the unmovable

but because bitcoin does something (medium of exchange/buy goods & services with it) transferable. and then there is costs of that transfer and security of the asset(mining cost). then no one would sell if too cheap.

EG if mining was $1 a coin. people wont sell it for 99c but no one would buy it for premiums above $2, as they could just mine it themselves(with a little effort)

but because mining is over $30k now in every region of the planet. no one can mine it for less. so everyone would buy it if it ever went down to $31k. preventing it going to $29k because people would refuse selling it for less.

but yes bitcoin needs to have a function/use/reason for people to mine or want bitcoin.
which is why i am a very loud advocate that bitcoin should remain a 'digital cash' and not be pushed into being just a 'reserve/treasury' for custodial services.

(keeping a good reason to mine. and having a reason for users to hold, spend, transfer, invest, buy things. makes bitcoin have utility worth securing).

altcoins on the other hand. that have no real life purpose(cant buy goods) and are mined without cost(pos) can drop to zero.
and many have.
inshort dont hoard PoS coins. there is absolutely nothing supporting a bottomline value of non-zero. PoS can go to zero. PoS is no underlying value and 100% speculative emotion

if you calculate the mining cost of the cheapest region on the planet. and the most expensive region on the planet. you can gain an insight to a 'value window'

after all if cheapest cost was $31k no one would want to sell. and people would prefer to not mine but buy it if the price ever dipped. thus causing a price support to keep it above minimum

after all if expensive cost was $70k no one would want to buy. and people would prefer to mine and sell it if the price ever spiked. thus causing a price resistance to keep it below maximum

with each time someone sells(refusing to sell at a loss) the new owner has a new higher acquisition cost than previous owner. helping support price rises too. and resisting price drops

as mining costs move forward and people trade coins to new owners. bottoms increase and new tops increase

right now at ~160exa(year average) the window is $31k to $66k
right now at ~175exa(X month average) the window is $35k to $73k (which allowed for the $69k november ATH)

in short the 'bottom' is no longer $0 as long as costs to acquire bitcoin isnt zero, and there are alot of things making the cost to acquire bitcoin non-zero

funny part is.
when a new buzzword is created that is never used commonly before it trended. it then becomes the people shouting "mass formation psychosis" that actually suffer from "mass formation psychosis", because they shout it without thinking/researching to understand it, or know if its true or not.

if you think shouting "covid" is a "mass formation psychosis", then please just talk to any ICU doctor of any hospital.. but first please avoid speaking to your homeopathic herbal supplement salesperson who gives backrubs who says they are a specialist doctor

im not going to delve into the greyscale valuation as thats separate from bitcoin spot price stuff
anyways, lets look at some bitcoin price stuff

in the 'rounds' of the block halving, here are the peak prices
2009-2012: $32
2012-2016: $1.2k(37.5x)
2016-2020: $20k(16.6x)
2020-2024: $69k(3.4x)..so far
[spoiler below, scroll over to reveal 'prediction']
2020-2024: $146k(7.34x)
2024-2028: $474k(3.25x)
2028-2032: $682k(1.44x)
[spoiler above, scroll over to reveal 'prediction']


as you can see by each previous round the multiplier depreciates by ~2.+ (above 2 but under 3)

its imagined that the 2020-24 round should meet about a 7-8x of the last round (16.6/2.?)
which should be about $140k-$160k (at some point before 2024 block halving)

however right now even in the most expensive region of the planet. mining costs are under $70k right now so no one really wants to pay excessive premiums if everyone on the planet can mine for under $70k a coin

the hashrate would have to go up to have a supported good value underline(acquisition cost) to give the price a push up where people refuse to sell below

right now at 160exahash(year average).. using the electric cost(and hardware cost) calculation for range of $0.04 -$0.32 kwh electric
the window of underline value is $31k-$66k
(november 2021 seen 175exa which allowed a window upto $73k, which allowed for the ATH of $69k inside that window)

and that explains why the spot price sits inside this window

the hashrate would have to be 240exa to push the top end cost window to $100k, by which the bottom end support will rise to $47k, meaning.. just like we shouldnt see $10k a coin again due to todays bottom end being $31k. if the hashrate achieves a sustained 240exa we should start to see a no return below $45k again. and a possible launch to $100k

this 240exa, as a stable hashrate minimum is achievable within the 2020-24 round.. meaning we can see a $47k-$100k before 2024, its just not happening this month
as is a 400exa which translates to ~$160k top end of window value, but bottom end of $80k. meaning the price can be anything in between

hoarding does not cause any merit for value rise

highschoolers think its a supply-demand thing. whereby there are 19mill coins. but billions of people with fiat wanting it.

actually the 19mill coins hoarded on private keys is not the supply.. . the markets price is not based on 19mill coins. its based on just a few hundred thousand coin deposited into an exchange, whereby the market price is based on which of those few hundred thousand coin are actually on market orders.
(your not part of the market if your not on the market)

even more depth
the market orders are not based on there being hundreds of people buying hundreds of coins right this second. instead if you look at the market orders you will see small orders of 0.1 and less being 'taken'  and affecting the price

yep you dont need to buy a whole coin to set/make a market price.
if you just spend $42 buying 0.001btc you then set the price at $42,000 per btc

you dont need to sell all 19mill coins all at $42k each to then make the market value $42k

what actually sets the value. is peoples willingness to not sell if the price dips too much.
this happens when people look at the price they acquired their coin for.

if a person acquired a coin in 2011 for 10c. he wont sell it for 9c
if another person sold another coin for 20c. the first person might try selling his for 20c too

now the new acquirer has 2 coin at 20c and wont sell it for 19c each. but might sell it for 26c each.
and so as time goes by. the price rises due to not wanting to sell at a loss. and not wanting to sell unless their is a gain.
and these gains add up

so passing coin around where the next person to get it will have a higher acquisition cost to refuse to sell below.
..
another metric of value is mining cost.
if it cost just $1 to mine an ounce of gold in your back yard. using just a spoon and coffee filter. then everyone would be selling it for $1.01-$3 as the ''spot price range' of value(NOT the $1k-$2k range)

the reason gold's spot price remains over $1k-$2k is because mining costs are over $900.
no one on the planet is silly enough to sell gold for under $900

98% will refuse to sell for under $1100. and less % the higher the price
what you find is those willing to sell below $1600. if they did sell at $1600 that new acquirer will try to avoid to sell it for less than $1650+,  thus the movement of assets sets a new % of acquirers desire to not sell below a certain value

..
heres an interesting thing.
it wont matter how many coins are on a market deposit balance sheet
it wont matter how much dollar are on a market deposit balance sheet

ever all the btc sellers all communicated that as of this minute everyone should refuse to sell their coin for less than $67k.
even if only one person with $6.70 was to buy coin (0.0001btc).. thats the price the market puts as the price for btc. $67k for 1btc.

ther could be 5milion coins wanting to be sold. and 5 trillion dollars ready to buy(or make up any number of any side)
but if there is only 1 order being placed. and that order was 0.0001btc for $6.70.   then that order makes btc $67k

i predict this is next weeks story
'russia want to announce this so that they can now close the russia-kazahk border and put military at the border "to stop potential pathogens entering russia" '

i predict the story in a fornight
"russia implements shoot on sight order at kazahk border"

both stories seems to sound about right for russia motives

go cry to some one that cares, like your chums that use an altnet.

you know the altnet that are not bitcoin specific but allow channels with lots of blockchains.. you know the one its called LN.
remember.. .. oh wait are you having one of them moments where your are flipping sides again and pretending you are not a LN fan and denying any memory of ever saying such.

maybe if your tried to learn about LN rather then just follow some group speach you might understand LN better and how its not a bitcoin fixed system.

give yourself 3 weeks, your desire to advertise the ALTnet will return.. usually does after a 3 week mind flip flop event, you have a known pattern.

i do laugh when you cry victim even when evidence shows you're the one poking the bear, trying to get it to bite. hence i have no sympathy for you.

if you don't like it that i dont hug, kiss, pat you on the back and give you merit everytime you cry.. maybe you should stop getting bears to bite you. then you have no reason to cry

1. YOU and your chums jump into BITCOIN topics where people want to discuss scaling BITCOIN NETWORK
2. YOU and your chums jump into BITCOIN topics to advertise LN..
2. i didnt start the swimming pool/hosepipe of piss analogy in the topic you refer to*. im the one saying to you lot to stop talking about other networks in bitcoin specific topics

TRY HARDER

*reference: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5378173.msg58791141
monkeyman wanted to talk about features of things on the bitcoin network
yet, MK4 then meandered into advertising LN
then bitbillo also advertised LN
then jackG then did the same mentioning LN
then avikz also mentioned LN
then o_e_l_e_o also mentioned LN

and thats just in the first 5 replies
hd49278 was first reply not mentioning LN specifically

then titular made another LN advert

i then respond at the blatant overstep of exaggerating LN features/function as a bitcoin2.0 thing advertised as where LN is THE solution

then the LN bunnies all congregate to attack me, simply because i dared to pull apart the LN advert campaign

NeuroticFish and stompix moan about how they cant understand english and THEY compare it using the swimming pool water, hose pipe and piss analogies...(they mentioned those words FIRST)

i then respond using THEIR analogies and words


thanks for mentioning this. seems a small group of altnet fangirls think their altnet is talked about more then bitcoin scaling. where they believe there is only 1 person that wants bitcoin to evolve.

yes LN specific topics are few and far between which is why the altnet fangirls inject themselves into every bitcoin scaling topic to derail it into advertising their altnet,

so that wall of text is just to say you emailed your uncle in 2009-10. and you cant find the email.

if he doesnt have it. then why does it matter? just call him. say hello.
why is it so important that 12 years after emailing him you need an email about how you emailed your uncle about a blog you seen.

there were many many many blogs in 2008->october 2009 about peer to peer money.

i have the strangest feeling that the legendary user that owned 'remotemass' as of 2012, recently sold his account to a noob. and this noob is trying to start a chain of unfortunate events that somehow, eventually lead into a story implicating his uncle as being satoshi.. and this is just the first chapter.

if your just looking for the email to see if the blog still exists, just out of curiosity, or for revisiting the past..

main ones were p2pfoundation.ning.com
which is one of the places satoshi posted about bitcoin, but many other posts were about p2p money in general even before bitcoin

then there are things like the cypherpunks mailing list and.. well google search can tell you more

so whats the rule for bitcoin sats for altnet millisats

or better analogy
bitcoin sats for sidechain LBTC, Wbtc, and others(like msats)

and also, whats the rule for adverting altnets like LN, liquid or bch as "bitcoin2.0"

(and selfies) 'do not use portraits'
it is asking for a real life selfie of you. your face, today.. not some photo of when you were a kid

 (valid & colourful passports) 'do not use .. or photocopies'
it is asking for a image of your passport in live colour.. no picture of a picture(photocopy) no black and white previous copy.

in short.
take selfie of your face
take selfie of your face holding your passport
take selfie of passport, not zoomed in too much to not show edges(EG1) and not zoomed out to not be readable(EG2)


EG1
this

is a bad example of not fitting any of the requirements

EG2
this

is the good example of "showing 2 pages and edges"
but a bad example of quality camera as its not very clear to read that its james bond
may require high res camera if blurry and unreadable

https://github.com/lightning/bolts/blob/master/02-peer-protocol.md

worth noting that using chain_hash happens AFTER peers connect,
it can be used to then interrogate what channels a peer already has.
it can be used to ask if that node wants to/can can create channels of those blockchains
it can be used to create channels if they both want to use that blockchain for pegged value

the separate peer connect part that comes WAY before channel interrogation or channel creation. is not blockchain specific. the nodeID uses public key for its ID along with an IP/tor domain.

the nodeID is a public key(bech32) but is not prefixed to a blockchain.
EG not bc1q for bitcoin, ltc1q for litecoin.
instead its just ln1q for LN node id

when using channel creation they can then decide which blockchain they want to both be bound in for that specific channel in which they then change the prefix to the supporting prefix of their desired/agreed blockchain

nodes can have a LN node id, and then many channels within, where some of those channels can for bitcoin, bitcoin testnet segnet regtest, litecoin and its testnets segnets regtests and other blockchain networks. and even private mutually agreed tokens

never panic when the price moves below a previous price.
its a discount opportunity. that is all

if i bought an iphone for $800 and the following month i see it for $600. i dont think i have lost $200. instead i think its $200 discount if i ever want to buy another for friend or family before the price goes back up

same goes for you and your chums constant reminders of an altnet when people actually want to discuss bitcoin stuff.

you may think that showing an "open" exit door of bitcoin and having an "open" entry of the LN cabin/treehouse.. as being "open" minded. pretending its the same thing because there is a path (of many houses) leading sometimes to the treehouse
hoping people will be open minded enough to not think critically about it or hoping they are open minded to ignore the issues.

but when you do so using coercion, threats, and promises that never seem to flourish.. thats not open. thats opportunistic

yes opportunistic.
it might contain 3 of the 4 letters of 'open'. but its not the same thing

it has been a good laugh seeing you pretend to defend peoples rights to say what they want in a topic you created asking to ban someone for what they said. even when what they said can be backed up by hard data, code and other quotes

dont pretend you defend free speech while at the same time asking for a ban. its one of your fatal flaws, contradictions

my only requests of you were not to F**k off or fork off or disappear or shut up or get banned. but instead to just learn more about what you PR campaign is about, try a different style. or just word it differently so that its not trying to en-cite an exodus away from bitcoin

i do hope you have atleast learned:
LN is a different network (secret is in the 'N')
LN payments/commitments are 2of2 multisig requiring 2 party permission
LN peers communicate/handshake first.
       and then agree on which blockchain/token use as a peg to share value of
               and then fund their agreed currency locks
                     and then form the microchannel payment (promises) to actually make payments
LN payments of 11 decimals are not the same as commitments or bitcoin transactions

if you can learn the ways in which LN is different to bitcoin and blockchains in general.
      then you might finally be able to achieve a good PR campaign for its niche use-case, by explaining why its different

anyway have a good life.