dont speak too soon, we've not hit 2350 yet, only 2349 on huboi 

Anything is possible, but in EW terms, it is very very unlikely that we have an impulse there for two reasons, the initial rally was a weak zig zag, and the hypothetical wave iv crossed the trend defined by wave i. This would suggest wave iii was weaker than i when in fact wave iii is always the strongest move.



Take a step back, look at the daily chart. compare this low to 350 low or the 400 low. you see, when bitcoin capitulates, it doesn't mess around afterwards!

Not the kind of call I like to make, but Im glad you see the good in it 

for wave V count, probably mid 200s. Cant say more than that for now. For wave B count, we will likely drop slowly and painfully to around 345 before an impulsive (easy to trade) rally takes us to 460

As noted above, here is the medium term picture. I give bias to b of IV count.

We have a convincing impulsive count to the downside. This means clarity, but it does not change that there are still two possible medium sized pictures here. Being strongly impulsive, it could be the beginning of wave V to all new lows. I think another situation is equally likely, we are in wave B of IV, why? because we failed to reach an important level, 450.
How will we know which count it is? if it is wave V count, it will be a lot more predictable than wave B. So lets try a process of elimination.

Having said that, right now is a good buy opportunity targeting at least 2350, but only if you can manage your risk very well. stop loss under lows.

I have colour coded the two counts that I am following right now, they are both medium term bearish. I give bias to the B of IV count.

Seems like it was a fakeout, no follow through, stagnant market persists. Im closing out 10yuan down.

If you like taking a bit of risk to stay ahead, buying at 2430 is a good risk reward entry now, stop loss under 2405. China has not passed critical bear levels, and this impulsive rally could be that illusive v wave we have been looking for. The correction so far is a simple abc and is not showing any conviction to the downside.

Depending on his this impulsive behaviour consolidates, we may be looking for a long signal. stay tuned.

I am in no position right now the market is stagnant, could go either way and we need to wait for clarity. I suggested that we stand back since I saw a possible truncated v, which was the top. I gave a long signal at 2390 but I have also suggested to close that too.

I did short at 370, but I also gave a close and buy signal below 370 so who could complain about that? 

I must mention another possibility that this is only a smaller fractal (wave a) of wave IV. The price ideally should have hit 450, the territory of iv(III).

I try my best to do quality, but sometimes I cannot produce a high confidence count. I think that having a low quality count is better than none as long as you know how to use it (or not - as the case may be)

When I give a low confidence count I will usually say not to trade it, rather use it is a defence mechanism.

Having said that yesterday, I still think this market is no good for trading right now.

we have an impulse upwards..... I may resume a bullish bias but suggest we wait for a better clearer signal, at least from me  before we do anything.

sometimes noise is the only edge we have. you make a good point though, maybe its best to stay out if we only have a small piece of price acion to base our trade on. The way I see it though is that some of these critical levels require quite a lot of chance to be broken if they are genuine. the energy of the market is simply exhausted and the levels are too strong by supply/demand. breaking iv wave support is not often a false signal to turn bearish.

You make a good point, I am looking at the Bitstamp chart assuming failure of the trend. there is a chance that bistamp has given us a false signal,but for now it seems to be a legit signal.

The chinese chart are starting to look bearish however, especially after retesting 2380. that shouldn't have happened.

I hope that you are not using leverage if youre gonna hold, it rather goes against the grain of this thread. but best of luck.

I think the market has just shown us this is a failure of wave v. this means that depending on how the market unfolds in the coming days, we will make our short target low 200s or around 300. low 200s will be the final low.

This is an excellent risk reward trade. buying at 2400ish and stoploss below 2370.

I think so too. this is my major count right now. looking to buy 2390ish