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81  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: December 02, 2022, 02:08:32 PM

He's actually not; he's arguing that if you installed a client software that does the msat <> sat conversion wrong (e.g. by a factor of 1000), and opened a channel with the same person who gave you this wallet software, the amount of sats shown in GUI would be different (higher) than what will later be settled on-chain when closing the channel.
Which I find really far-fetched as attackers could just steal the seed or do other attacks if they can get you to trust your keys to their software.

Thats so much more stupidly convoluted it was hard for me to tease of of his rantings...  Ah well.  I have returned to the peace of ignoring him. lol.
82  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: December 02, 2022, 12:02:56 AM
one more time

at the point of someone receiving msats and see it on their GUI.
they are not looking at any state/commitment.
and trying to find a state/commitment is hard to do on a phone app

(main utility wallet for people buying small price items like coffee/beer/sandwich(because no one takes a laptop with them into town))

upon someone seeing they received msat,
they if they were a business( cafe or a store) would hand over the goods. and "believe" they received the correct denomination that represents the amount of sats they think they are promised..

or if just a user like a street busker or someone getting paid to do landscaping on soneones yard. would think they got paid. and leave..


but wont find out if they have been paid in full. of actual real sats.. until the end of the month when they finally settle up. (as settling hourly/daily is not the premiss LN nerds are pushing)
oh and you cant find out by running some LN explorer or bitcoin explorer to check your LN channel msat balance is backed by sats. because its all loaded into a phone app which your channel service provider gave you
..
however in bitcoin receiving a real bitcoin transaction. is settled, confirmed and you can check it anywhere .. and then hand the goods over. meaning no worry, trust, faith..
also with bitcoin after getting payment, you dont have to stay online 24/7 wondering if some middle man will steal your funds
.
bitcoin does not need watch towers, doesnt need someone else to be online just to accept a relayed payment. (doesnt need a hop agreement stage of multiple participants pressing accept or needing to share/borrow someone elses balance just to push a payment around a network)
..
bitcoin has many security protections to not even relay transactions that dont have a confirmed utxo previous to it to back the current tx spend

plus a multitude of other security checks.. which is why in 2009 alot of cypherpunks that were playing with smart contracts before blockchains had issues. and then when bitcoin was announced they seen the wisdom of blockchains solved a smart contract problem

smart contracts dont solve a bitcoin problem. its the other way round


Damnit.  Stop your silly going on about this.

It is a LONG time before anyone gives a damn about a millisat!  A long time as in perhaps FOREVER.

SIXTY THOUSAND millisats is still only a PENNY in USD value.

You are barking on about people giving up FAR less than a penny when rounding down on a channel close. 

Every time that channel goes over another 1000 millisats, the receiving side has earned another 1 SAT.  Locked in.  Will settle. 

Would anyone be concerned that a channel that has been active for weeks, months, or years has to give up less than 1/500th of a penny in value when it closes?

No.  The answer is no.  And it will always be no.  And you are so wrong it hurts.  Or maybe just a good troll.  OK, I mean it this time.  Ignored.
83  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 30, 2022, 09:23:34 PM
One crazy SOB - 5 yrs !!




https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1597934819409014784?s=61&t=wtZF30c_nuuof_LtQ1bz_w

If you haven’t seen the documentary yet on Netflix-   watch it - the dude was completely off his t**ts  Smiley

In the grand scheme of things he will not have been off by a lot...
84  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: November 30, 2022, 08:40:49 PM
It´s incredible how much time people can spend with Frankies confused drivel. Face it guys: He doesn´t know shit about the Lightning network!
He is the Master Troll of bitcointalk.org.

He is actually currently making argument after argument about the horror of rounding down to the nearest $0.000169 on channel close.  Bitcoin can do a 1000x and we will still just be rounding down to less than nearest quarter the USD value.  Lol.

I am back to ignoring him.
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 30, 2022, 07:26:43 PM


Wait... why is that red one still in there?
86  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 30, 2022, 06:59:15 PM
Off-topic:

Strandbeest Evolution 2021 by Theo Jansen

Moving art, kinetic lifeforms, a merging of engineering and art.

Also, check this out:

Wintergatan - Marble Machine

Ahh Khachaturian is a fav of mine... 
87  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2022, 07:52:05 PM
The famous twitter "crypto" guru Pomp used to shill lies about blockFi. What kind of idiot one has to be to trust such crooks with their savings? I guess too many. I don't know if we already hit the bottom but until the market is cleansed from such trash, there is no reason to expect some wild bull run. So I keep DCAing but won't risk any extreme investment. At least not yet.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1597371512570675205

fake smile and mental illness eyes... just how I like my gurus...


https://twitter.com/anilsaidso/status/1597371512570675205

BANG BANG!

Pomp really has a conundrum on his hands...  He either got out of BlockFi, in which case he will likely end up in some very nasty court cases.  Or, he lost the "biggest investment he had ever made".

Seems BANG BANG = LOSE LOSE.

88  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: November 29, 2022, 05:08:11 PM

oh and by the way. even pre-confirm.. the bitcoin network wont relay payments that have no valid confirmed UTXO. .. unlike your silly network that would.


Can you expand this?  Because as far as I can tell you do not actually understand how LN works.  It does not USE UTXO's outside of the ones in the underlying channel transaction open and close.  There are no UTXOs in lightning's accounting system.

And if your understanding of how lightning works, and how it relates to the base layer is this bad, then you really should not be making many arguments at all.
89  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: November 29, 2022, 03:47:51 PM
So... I have Franky on ignore because in the past I feel like he has just been so much noise.  But obviously he has been getting some engagement recently and I see the quotes.  This is fine, of course.

But it's too bad.  Seems like a well meaning guy.  But he is not arguing his points in an open minded way.  His general thesis is basically:  Lightning is NOT Bitcoin.  And then he makes arguments that do not mak sense from that premise.  Like the last one quoted:

Quote
in bitcoin I can disapear for a decade and come back and know my finds are safe.. LN channel cant say the same

The whole reason for a second layer network is to build functionality the utilizes the FIRST layer but offers a different set of tradeoffs.  Just looking at the LN as a trust minimized, distributed network designed to allow a record to be kept of off chain transactions with minimal trust for the purpose of small commerce.  The archetypal coffee transaction.  And then these transaction can be settled on chain later.  It was never designed for you to hold value there for 10 years.  The tradeoffs it has are not as well suited to that and layer 1 cold storage.

Let's look at the argument in a similar context.

One could use the same basic logical framework  (somewhat generous really Smiley ) to argue that a Opendime with a balance on it "is not Bitcoin".  Or that Opendime "transactions" are not Bitcoin. I can have 0.01BTC on one of those and give it to you, and you can give it to someone else...  This is a physical layer 2 product.  And IT TOO has a different set of tradeoffs than the Bitcoin base layer.  It gives way better privacy for example.  But the hardware can fail... it can be seized.  It would be harder to fly across borders with it.  The hardware could be counterfeited, and so on.   And it too, after many "uses" can have the little hole punched, and then the balance on it will be "settled on chain" when you move the funds to cold storage, for example.

So Franky is right in some senses that LN is not Bitcoin.  Just like transacting with Opendimes is not bitcoin.  If you are defining "Bitcoin" as transactions on the base layer.  But just like the Opendime.  Ultimately what we are transacting on the LN IS BITCOIN.  Period.

Looking at complex systems with a polarized, binary, black and white lens is a mistake.  I would also argue that LBTC (Liquid) is also "Bitcoin".  It might be a further, riskier abstraction of Bitcoin than LN or an Opendime.  It certainly introduces new risks (AND advantages).  And just like the LN one should probably not use it for certain things.  Or at all, if you prefer.  But the underlying asset is still bitcoin.
90  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2022, 05:30:11 PM
BREAKING: Twitter Break-In.

^Please pardon the pun.

Quote
This Tweet is from a suspended account.

This is one reason twitter sucks.

If this isn't censorship, I have no clue what is.

Free speech my ass.

Here it is for anyone that missed it.

https://web.archive.org/web/20221124003626/https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1595557696131911680

Yeah.  There is no way a centralized control can produce a truly free result.  Mastodon is maybe the answer. 

I do think Musk is doing more good than bad, but there is bad too...
91  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2022, 12:26:36 AM
Of note....in Houston, TX, real estate taxes are 'killing" me every darned year.
They are roughly 2% per year per current year RE value...you can have 3X of the house (in $) in Cali, 4X in Colorado for the same tax.
As valuation rises, that 2% becomes more and more. The only limit of increase is 10% increase max for the year, but if, say, property value increased 20% in a year, this means that you would get hit with 10% tax increase two years in a row, unless value drops in year 2.

But no income tax.

You have to pay somehow for the quality electric infrastructure...

Not sure if this is serious or sarcastic considering how much shit my state gets for the icepocolypse a couple years ago.  But TX is bringing big time mining companies into the state and they are balancing the grid.

The lack of a state tax IS quite nice.  But yes, the property taxes are the other end of it all...

Yes I was being sarcastic about the cold event, I don't pretend to know what has been going on since then. And Texas is supposed to be "low tax".

As a Texan, I will say this.  Ultimately it is pick your poison.  But at least the policies in TX favor your actions rather than just your income.  If I make a $2mm/yr salary and live in a house I bought in 1991 for 72k then I pay less taxes than if they take a percentage of my earnings.  It's really all about time preference.  TX is not perfect.  But it is WAY better than many of the alternatives.

In my opinion, the entire US is in a state of "fucked".  But TX and FL have been shining lights of the way we COULD do things.
92  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2022, 12:05:59 AM
So ...

Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up.  Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING.  Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine?  Then nudge him further and further into the red 'till they set up the collapse.  Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...

Nah.  Just a ponzi prolly.

I'm just going to quote this from time to time until I either come out dead wrong, or...

Well let's hope for dead wrong.

So far, I am not wrong.  In fact, I was only scratching the surface I think.

This article is LONG... but worth the read.

https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/a-grand-unified-theory-of-the-ftx

What an amazingly crazy world we are living in.
93  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 24, 2022, 12:31:47 AM

Lumping Elon Musk (who I do not like, particularly) in with SBF is entirely retarded in my opinion. Wink (yes, I have chosen to be an ablest or whatever we call that type of person we disagree with now)

Currently it seems to me the elon FUD is coming from one side of the political spectrum.  And I do not expect most of them to admit it if he actually pulls off whatever the hell he's doing... lol.
94  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 24, 2022, 12:27:41 AM


Taking down FTX hurt but now that we know how dodgy it was, you can't really argue it's a bad thing.

Going after Coinbase is another story. I don't know in what state it is, but I assume it's run more professionally than FTX. Also, if we're looking at dodgy things, what about BNB coin ?

Cz is a snake that probably just got his books straight after years of naked manipulation and wants to get called by out someone like Armstrong as he is now liquid for the first time.

He wants to make a big splash and reveal after stirring up some more drama is my guess.

Armstrong while being a snake himself is not dumb enough to play into CZ's hand.

Very nice read.
95  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 24, 2022, 12:26:35 AM

but if you ignore JJG, chartbuddy and exphorizon the wo is a pretty fast read.

Personally like 2/3 of those... but adding the merit farmer to the EXP ignore team 1 by 1.  And I do not read ALL of JJGs words.
96  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 24, 2022, 12:24:33 AM
Of note....in Houston, TX, real estate taxes are 'killing" me every darned year.
They are roughly 2% per year per current year RE value...you can have 3X of the house (in $) in Cali, 4X in Colorado for the same tax.
As valuation rises, that 2% becomes more and more. The only limit of increase is 10% increase max for the year, but if, say, property value increased 20% in a year, this means that you would get hit with 10% tax increase two years in a row, unless value drops in year 2.

But no income tax.

You have to pay somehow for the quality electric infrastructure...

Not sure if this is serious or sarcastic considering how much shit my state gets for the icepocolypse a couple years ago.  But TX is bringing big time mining companies into the state and they are balancing the grid.

The lack of a state tax IS quite nice.  But yes, the property taxes are the other end of it all...
97  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2022, 01:26:58 AM


Where the dude @

Damn I am late on this!
Isla Holbox, Mexico


"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.
I watched c-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate.
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain."

Everyone knows the source, I suppose.


So far, maybe the best movie of my life.   And even better than the  short story/novella.
98  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2022, 11:20:56 PM
mY BET IS WE BOUNCE HERE... BUT WE HAVE SHIT TO FACE IN THE COMING WEEK WITH gbtc POSSIBLY FALLING TO BITS.

iN OTHER WORDS, MY OTHER BET IS THIS TRIANGLE RESOLVES DOWN, EITHER QUICKLY ON mONDAY, OR AFTER ONE MORE TEST OF THE TOP.



aLSO..  i STILL THINK THE MASS OF THE s CURVE IS INCOMING.  sOMEDAY i WILL BE RIGHT, AND EACH OF YOU WILL HAVE TO BUY ME A DRINK.   oNE THAT COMES IN A COCONUT.  mAYBE ON BITCOIN BEACH.
99  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2022, 12:51:46 AM
This bear market hurts and is obviously pain in the ass. As much as the previous bull run was different (TM), this bear market must be equal to be treated different as well. (Yeah the down trend sucks since the last 12 months!)

My current concerns:
1-) about lightening which is quite recent and affects miners (imo), so does it mean that they could not make any profit since then? Will this affect the next bull run (i hope there will be one such as earlier runs)? or the miners would decrease their costs on hardwares or give up on mining?
...
snip...

Have a nice weekend!

I have concerns about LN as a miner.

I can tell you we have not had a 1btc+ reward since LN fired up in spring of 2021--- likely to be 99% true not 100%

Yeah LN was around before spring of 2021.  But in spring of 2021 the memory pool had big back ups.  Now one could argue it was because China trashed the hashrate.

wait for more.


but look here.


https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,all,weight


set to all view the backup from Jan 2021 to May 2021

we had huge fees and we had the first 60k + prices.

LN got much more active in April and May of 2021.  and fees suck since then for the miner that is.

Do I know the long term effect IE BTC in  2060 nope.

But I fear that BTC will suffer a lot as we approach that time.

Then I think you will be OK mining either BCH or BSV.  They have no lightning network.

But I also thought that the iPad was a terrible idea doomed to fail. Grin

Well... there's that... Also -

Did you read my last post to your mining worries?  You are living out a famous Yogi Berra quote... "No one goes there anymore... it's too busy".
100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2022, 10:46:53 PM
Sorry for the caps, but this pic is straight yelling this at me  Grin
I will forgive it this time.

I think it's obvious and simple, but i'm not sure if it isn't meant as a joke:

WOMEN ARE EXPENSIVE Grin
We poker player have a saying...

"In life... Women are the rake."
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