we are on our way to 450+, and there are two likely ways we will get there. A.  Impulsive a of IV or impulse i of greater cycle V (!) B.  a severe correction at this stage is not wholly bullish but should be bought into, and sold at 450. It does imply that we will be retesting lows in a slow and painful manner in the coming months. Hold tight onto your bitcoins. |
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False breakout or...?
..... It looks like a iv rising wedge, the impulsive behaviour is diverging which is not consistent with a hypothetical wave iii breakout. the price must stay under 360, and should not register any further highs before wave v comes. If we break a new high today above 354 then I would say yes breakout and buy. |
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please dont go in all leverage, not the next 24 hrs.
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Makes sense, but I doubt it's the right one. By your count, ~350 is the top of the retracement from the $275 bottom. I expect more from it, $360, $380, maybe more, based on volume mainly. What happens afterwards remains to be seen, although I'm also leaning towards another test of 2xx eventually. Let's come back to it in a week  from an ew perspective, it makes so much sense. 360-380 could not be explained, passing into the territory of wave i. so far we have only unfolded in 3's, thats entirely what triangles are made of. wave iv's tend to be triangles, and reside in the territory of wave iv. Ill say no more, but definitely ill be watching over the week. |
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BINGO. this legit ew count is unfolding and makes perfect sense. IV waves reside in the iv wave of one lower fractal, below 446 in this case. Iv waves tend to be triangles too. this is a great count. I am expecting $260 coins in the coming days as the correction is not officially over, needing a wave d and e to complete.  |
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Yes, this has become clear now. NOT good place to be long. the wave V count is still valid and Iam expecting 260 lows still. great place to short for the experienced traders, stop loss at 347.  |
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This rally has not given us a long signal yet and I couldnt advise going long right now, minor counts are pointing down from this point.
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We have not had an impulsive count from lows, so I am sceptical about this rally occuring presently. However, if it shows strength and follow through going through 345, we should assume that wave v is complete, buy and hold until 450, carefully managing your leverage and risk.  |
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Its difficult to say, as you point out. we would avoid the count where iii is the smallest wave.
Of coarse the liquidity and market access was terrible back then, so one is forgiven for taking an educated guess.
Ryan probably has some better ideas than I, but I'd say its a 5 wave, forget about counting it. If feel you must, assume that your current count is ok.
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 Little option but down right now |
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Ah, I think I see. So do you have a chart starting in 2010? I now see that when you talk about wave V, you're talking about the bull market that started from the depths of the 2011 bear market. So we should expect a bear market after Wave V, but in the context of the entire history of Bitcoin, there are larger waves to play out.
yeah, there is always a bigger picture. and sorry I dont have a chart starting in 2010. |
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How does the 2011 $31.9099 high play into that?  lol Dunno =P maybe wave II grand supercycle =P gotta come from somewhere If you add it in, you will see that we either just finished the 5th (1163) or the n3xt rise to new ATH will only be a 3 for sure  TV does have a script or something that adds Gox data from 2010 until the start of stamp to the beginning of the stamp chart oh thanks didnt know that. If youv'e done the work Ill take your word for it. |
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How does the 2011 $31.9099 high play into that? lol Dunno =P maybe wave II grand supercycle =P gotta come from somewhere |
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He could be well off because I think that calling the top of v is looking too far ahead, we are not in the fifth wave yet and have no clues. In the case of a fifth wave we could expect $1000 - $5000 in an extreme case. DanV wouldn't agree with the idea of a fifth wave blowout, he prefers the idea of a diminished fifth beause the III wave was so steep. $5000 is allowable within the current count, although extreme. I dont see $10,000 justifiable in the near future, but certainly possible in a few years.
If a count proves wrong, it may be absolutely wrong. In this case the count is quite strong though so I wouldn’t fore sake EW altogether. Do you have a long term (starting in 2010) chart with the counts on it?  This is a widely accepted count. We cant be sure if a larger correction after wave V will be wave II or wave IV. Wave II would be absolutely phenominal. |
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It boggles the mind to see so many people loose their shirt believing in that chart, and it's still here. If there were a mathematical formula to know the future price then we would all be rich. Unfortunately you may as well be using a star chart, which some here will likely claim also works.
What you are trying to say is that the market is a zero sum game. That doesn't mean that it does not move in a natural manner describable by science and math, because nothing escapes such laws. In the market there are smart and ignorant, the emotional and the calm. Often the market offers us opportunities as wealth is distributed from one to the other. Like I've said, EW is totally falsifiable. |
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So how come it's gone up, not down?
We have had the expected retracement, now it's just a matter of patience. the count is still good on a larger scale. fifth waves can be slow. So you think the price will go down, but you cannot say when? What do you think the price will go down to? I cannot say exactly when. it should take less than a week. I think it will happen much sooner. After a week we will probably be in the 400s. I have given my price target on the previous page. 270-250 is the zone to look for weakness and buy. |
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How precise-but-inaccurate can EW be?
Can he be off by an order of magnitude? Instead of reaching $1000 as predicted, could it go to $10000 and still be precise?
He could be well off because I think that calling the top of v is looking too far ahead, we are not in the fifth wave yet and have no clues. In the case of a fifth wave we could expect $1000 - $5000 in an extreme case. DanV wouldn't agree with the idea of a fifth wave blowout, he prefers the idea of a diminished fifth beause the III wave was so steep. $5000 is allowable within the current count, although extreme. I dont see $10,000 justifiable in the near future, but certainly possible in a few years. If a count proves wrong, it may be absolutely wrong. In this case the count is quite strong though so I wouldn’t fore sake EW altogether. |
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So how come it's gone up, not down?
We have had the expected retracement, now it's just a matter of patience. the count is still good on a larger scale. fifth waves can be slow. |
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we are probably less than 4 hours away from some downwards volatility.  |
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And lot of buying energy was spent others recently too with many buyers getting burnt in the process.
In bear market like this, and in trading instrument like this, there's way more energy to sell than to buy unfortunately.
EW is about the crowd. the mainstream, the ignorant. they account for a huge portion of the market force. When they panic, they push the price as far as it will naturally allow. they dont do it in half measures either, its a landslide and the body of it, iii wave, only happens once, and can only happen once. I believe that has happened and we are very close to the bottom. |
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