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Are you concerned about the weekend dip?
The weekend dip is a pattern where:
- if, by Wednesday evening / Thursday morning the high for the most recent seven days is LOWER than the high for the previous seven days, then what happens more often than not is that the price will slide into the weekend.
Taking advantage of that means selling on Wednesday evening / Thursday morning and then buying those bitcoins back before the following week's buying begins on Sunday afternoon.
During the March / April time frame applying this strategy resulted in 10% or more gains each week.
The explanation for this might be that because bank transactions only cause funds to be available on business days, there is a smaller inflow of funds during the weekend. At the same time, withdrawals (e.g., Dwolla) are allowed 24x7.
Thus there is an imbalance between miners cashing out seven days a week and investors / speculators / buyers for any other reason only adding funds during weekdays.
The last time this pattern was occurred, two weeks ago, the window was short, and the price had recovered by Saturday. Of course, then that Sunday was the Mt. Gox security breach so that weekend was not likely typical.
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I restored my wallet again, and it has downloaded the chain up to the most recent block again. If for some reason the transaction hadn't been announced to the network and you then restored your wallet from a backup, then the network never knew you made that transaction, and now your local client doesn't either. But there's no guarantee that the earlier transaction didn't make it to a node. That transaction could be queued as could still could go through. Normally, the bitcoin client will attempt to re-announce the transaction at a later time. But you need to leave the client running -- for an hour or longer even, perhaps, for it to finally retry sending the transaction out. But now that you've restored the wallet, the client won't be retrying anything. You can always check to see a queue that helps to determine if a transaction has been announced to the network. The queue shows transactions that were announced but are not yet included in a block. - http://www.bitcoincharts.com/bitcoinAnd once it is in a block, it will appear in Block Explorer: - http://www.blockexplorer.comAfter 6 confirmations, the client will change from unconfirmed to confirmed. So, if your wallet doesn't know about that transaction, and it isn't showing as a queued transaction nor appears in block explorer, then you probably are safe in assuming the transaction never made it out. |
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Interesting. Wasn't aware the GoldMoney supported P2P transfers. This can be for any of the metals, including silver. Incidentally, the fee is about 1% with an upper limit / cap at about roughly $5. |
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the BItconDays Destroyed metric (currently about 36%).
can u elaborate on this? For a number of different reasons which likely include mixing ( http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mixing_service) the number of bitcoins sent in a day appear to be a much larger number than what likely is truly being transferred. Other payment systems know to the penny how much was transferred in and out and they use that metric in measuring growth, for instance. With the total coins sent being a number that so badly misrepresents the total transferred those wanting statistics on Bitcoin had to come up with an alternate method. The BitcoinDays Destroyed metric was devised to help show how the currency is used and is about the closest possible method to the total transfers metric that competing services report. Essentially the BitcoinDays Destroyed increases when coins that had previously not moved start moving. The older they are, the more "days destroyed" when they are eventually spent. Re-spending those shortly after will have a tiny amount of "days destroyed" because they weren't idle for long. - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed |
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What I mean to say is: I don't believe that this is the "same" market as before the MtGox hack. One factor is that with difficulty lower, miners who haven't added mining capacity are now earning fewer BTC per day. For some, the bitcoin income they were receiving was going towards their mining hardware and some was being stocked away. Now with the higher difficulty combined with a flat or lower BTC/USD, miner's are are selling more of what they produce as before when the exchange rate was clearly on an upward slope. Some are even selling off what they previously had been saving. Do realize that 7,200 BTC or more are "minted" each day. In the past 24 hours, according to BitcoinWatch.com there were 9,000 BTC (180 blocks @ 50 BTC each) issued so if the price remained level at $17 that means over $150,000 worth of new inflows came into bitcoin or that there was $150,000 worth of hoarding, or some combination of those two. Then again our google trends are in a lull,
To me, the amount of speculative interest that results from the media coverage is not worth much as that is not sustainable. Instead the metrics that matter most are the number of transactions per day (currently around 11K) and the BItconDays Destroyed metric (currently about 36%). I'm still trying to see if a pattern exists between changes in BDD versus the market exchange rate. BDD rose quickly (meaning many "old" BTCs move) over the past week but that doesn't say if that was simply coins finding a safe harbor or it was transfers to the exchanges in preparation for selling. Just know there are a lot of coins moving around -- with even a 20% turnover now equating to a "slow day". The fact that the exchange rate has barely moved makes these movements even that much more curious. [edited] |
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EDIT: And there it goes.. 7 confirmations. I guess I was freaking out over nothing. oops.  For the benefit of anyone else who happens to view this thread. The miners may accept a transaction fee even if it has no fee attached. You can always check to see a queue that shows any transactions that have been announced to the network and the queue has seen but has not yet included in a block: - http://www.bitcoincharts.com/bitcoinAnd once it is in a block, it will appear: - http://www.blockexplorer.comAfter 6 confirmations, the client will change from unconfirmed to confirmed. |
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now accepts BTC as a checkout/payment option. I went through the process, just to evaluate it. I couldn't see how to pay as checkout part 1/2 said Google Checkout. But then after submitting that I see part 2/2 which lets you choose Bitcoin as the payment method. In response is: ========================================== Your Order ID is: #nnnn Instructions for Bitcoins (Btc) Thanks for using the new way to pay on the Internet! We will be emailing you with the final total/payment address of your order in BTC based on the current USD exchange rate. If you have any questions, simply contact us via email at babbletees@gmail.com, or phone at 815-780-1953. Thanks for using Bitcoins! An email receipt containing information about your order will soon follow. Please keep it for your records. Thank you for shopping at Babbletees. ========================================== Eventually we'll start seeing ecommerce sites able to build in the bitcoin payment handling, but even this method works for now. Thanks for adding bitcoin as one of the methods! |
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Addendum: The major problem with implementing such a system right now is the inability of the standard client to import key pairs. Wouldn't instawallet do 99.5% of this? An example of a service built on top of InstaWallet - http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=24452.0 |
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