This thread is very convincing  But the target for the final wave V can be much lower if it breaks 266. Many people believe BTC will never break previous ATH - so when this happens there will be additional push down. To break the previous all time high is really probable in ew terms because that is the high of the price territory of the iv wave of one lower fractal. we are now in wave IV. I would argue that the high will serve as support and that a price range of $20 below 266 is fair game, but I wouldn't entail that panic selling will push us to low 200's or 100s'. a LOT of panic selling energy has been spent already just a day ago. If wave v is 1x wave iii, we will head down to 220. I dont think we could do lower than that easily at all. |
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here is a more accurate illustration of price target. we generally expec wave v to be 0.618x wave iii. that places our target at 270. I think thats a bit shallow and see no reason to be looking for a diminished v. whatever happens, look for bullish weakness in the red circle. I will try track the wave live to the minute fractals.  |
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Thanks a lot for sharing! Do you also use other tools like oscillators etc in your analysis? Sure enough, that big mofo wall made the technical picture a little bit confused when it was there... but I agree on the bigger scale it doesn't matter could we also be tracing out a bigger b wave right now before a final push higher? After such a massive move down I just can't believe we cannot even go above 350...!  Hi there, By that count the final push higher would be a C wave. terminal. imo you have correctly counted wave iii, and because we have now completed and abc (your 'a' wave) in the vacinity of the iv wave of one lower fractal degree, I believe we will be heading to 260 soon to complete wave v. In fact, Im fairly sure it has just begun. EDIT. to answer your queston better, I dont think that we will have a larger B wave trough 350 because that would pass the wave (iv) of wave iii and likely pass through wave i overlapping. almost all indicators (macd, rsi etc) use the price action you can see with your own eyes in a formula. One only needs to see divergance patterns in the market for a few years before one's own eye becomes more accurate than any time-scale bound indicator is. The only reasons for using an RSI or macd imo would be for self discipline, consistency or for illustration purposes. I sometimes use rsi and macd, but I dont rely on them. It will break 350 like a hot knife through butter not too long after the final move  like I said up there, with all the best counts I can see, 450 is really the minimum retracement for the short term. |
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I find DanV's elliott wave analysis to precise, but not accurate. That is to say his wave count is dead on, but his price target is historically off yeah this is how I feel about DanV's analysis. In the market there are real motives related to greater moves, for example, china bans bitcoin. quite literally thats what we mean when we say a motive, or an impulsive wave. DanV will see a silly over lap on a one minute chart, and without consideration of real market forces, he will insist that an impulsive count for example is not valid. I called for an impulsive wave from 420 after the fall to 340. He absolutely rejected he idea, while in fact it played out beautifully, all fractals in tact to 680. Listen to the EW analysts that prepare you for the worst, aka he best possible up and down situations at any given point. That way you can use the advice to the best effect in your own beliefs and strategies. The wave science and maths behind EW analysis is totally falsifiable. I'd avoid any EW analyst that cant explain this. The best Ive heard from DanV is that "because the rules say so". He is very condescending and arrogent about it all... |
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Here is a good count of the current market action. we might bottom out around mid 200s.  |
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Will the 20000 bitcoin bitstamp sell order at $300 throw your calculations off a bit?
NO. care to elaborate? Panic selling always pushes the price as far as it can go, you can count on it that we are at tough support here. count how many bitcoins have been sold over the down trend. A small order like 20k bitcoin is easily absorbed over the exchanges. I respect your attempt to find order in the chaos, but you can't account for the human element in your equation. At the time of this writing, a very serious vulnerability has been discovered in bitcoin. this attack is known at the FRONT attack, i posted a thread about it earlier. Its going around on the mailing lists. The attack is of minor concern, as it would require alot of money/bitcoin to exploit and freeze the network, but its very real, and very much going to be a factor into the bitcoin price over the next few months. Entities like NSA and Terrorist groups probably have the resources to exploit this attack vector, if they so choose. wave theory is a reflection of the real market forces. I do not doubt that the market has taken into account this fear mongering. |
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Will the 20000 bitcoin bitstamp sell order at $300 throw your calculations off a bit?
NO. care to elaborate? Panic selling always pushes the price as far as it can go, you can count on it that we are at tough support here. count how many bitcoins have been sold over the down trend. A small order like 20k bitcoin is easily absorbed over the exchanges. |
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Will the 20000 bitcoin bitstamp sell order at $300 throw your calculations off a bit?
NO. |
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Did you learn EW from another member here who was offering his services?
RyninDaclem has given me tips on triangles and ending diagonals in the past, but I am very much self taught from internet resources. I have my own philosophy about wave theory, I keep it closer to scientific wave theory/physics than the traditional Elliot wave theory. I have done this for about 5 years. |
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After a great deal of panic selling we have the necessary price action and volume to say that capitulation has happened to some extent. The chart now takes the form of a simple ABC from our ath of $1100. However we have not been gifted with a clear wave C count, necessarily an impulsive wave in EW analysis, to say with confidence that this move is over. Regardless of the correct count we still have many levels to watch that if broken, and in what manner, can give us clues about the termination of wave C.  one thing that seems clear is that wave i of C is the fall from 680 to 540. If we pass through 540 in the coming days, the possibility of a hypothetical wave v is nullified, buy and hold on tight.  Now here's a possible count that makes sense and looks good until we take into consideration a couple of significant ew guidelines. wave IV tends to resolve within the vicinity of wave (iv) of one lower fractal (440-530). This would be a deep retracement of wave iii, and must come close to the territory of wave i. This is not a likely wave behaviour because we would expect alternation between the waves ii and iv - deep and shallow and vice versa to that total retracement within the cycle becomes equal to 0.618, the magic number. Also, in the chart above you can see that wave (v) of iii, and similarly wave v of (v) are larger than wave (iii) of iii and iii of v. This we could call a wave v blowout but its not something we expect to see with wave iii of (iii) of ((iii)) etc.... how can we tell if this is the correct count? a retracement to 440 and significant weakness in the area. If this is the count, we will have a final v wave down, possibly into the lower 200s. we would not be likely to enter the 100s because the iii wave was so severe, that a diminished v is likely.  Here is another possible count that implies termination of wave c. On first impression, not as practical as the above, but here is why I think it is equally as likely as the above - a) waves ii and iv alternate (deep and shallow) b) wave iii is a practical size, whereas wave iii above is ridiculously big compared to wave i. ideally we want our iii waves to be 1.618 the size of wave i. in this example, that is more or less the case. In the above example, the ratio is 2.6x wave i. In this case we have a blow out wave v. Speaking of a completed wave C, I do not find this surprising because we are really dealing with an exponential subject here. This logic is consitent with the above example because I am referring to wave v of a complete cycle, not the (v) of a wave iii that is over extended and contradicts a v wave blow-out. The confirmation of this count is more difficult, we will need to see a convincing primary wave form at local levels, or a blast through 540.  There is a third possibility here that demonstrates the same implications of the second count, but also has imperfections.Namely, the wave iv is too small in comparison to the wave ii, and wave (v) of iii does not easily fit an impulsive description. while counts of hypothetical wave v or iii may not yet be complete, bottoming out in the next day in the 200s will likely be followed by a rally to at least 450, the lowest probable identifiable wave (iv). dont let the bear whale get you down.  |
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yeah agreed, sentiment is bad as last time we were stagnant around 440, and swap costs are low for longs.
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Hey Ryan,
Nice work here. Im tracking that triangle count too ^^
feels to me that there is really no strong motive in this market at all.
what are your thoughts on a larger scale triangle consistent with the Chinese markets? makes sense to me only the west doesn't fit the puzzle.
Oddly enough, The western exchanges is the only place where a triangle is still valid! Huobi has more of a wedge going on with it's descending lower trend line  Whereas Stamp has a pretty decent triangle tracing out  The obvious lack of conviction, in either direction, is ideal territory for triangle making. My biggest argument against the triangle is all the 5 wave moves down and if you break volume up into specific buy and sell volume, the sells are far outweighing the buys over the last month. I guess we'll have to wait and see! Just looked at everything since November on the Huobi chart... Are you talking about that big triangle? Where we are at the upper trend line right now, and looking to plummet nearly to the post ATH crash levels to complete? Yeah, BS broke that following Gox down the rabbit hole.  True but Im talking about the IV wave on the largest scale. I think the chinese markets are clearly forming a triangle.  https://www.tradingview.com/x/urDTDXeq |
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Hey Ryan,
Nice work here. Im tracking that triangle count too ^^
feels to me that there is really no strong motive in this market at all.
what are your thoughts on a larger scale triangle consistent with the Chinese markets? makes sense to me only the west doesn't fit the puzzle.
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BFX is a love hate thing..... but dont see why MTC would be short when DanV is in fact agressively long today.
supply liquidity to BFX and you will be rewarded, take liquidity from BFX and it will punish you.
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Hi everyone, I have been trying to set up solo mining (just interested in learning how to hook up to the network) using bitcoinqt and bfgminer as advised, but I cant seem to quite get there even after searching all over the internet. I have successfully installed bitcoinqt and bfgminer, and I am pool mining with btcguild. I have made a bitcoin.conf file with the following in it and put it in the home/.bitcoin folder. rpcuser=bitcoinqt rpcpassword=123 rpcallowip=127.0.0.1 rpcport=8332 server=1 gen=1 rpcssl=1 However, I have no idea if bitcoinqt is running as a server when I open it...? When I try to run bfgminer in the terminal and enter the url - http://localhost:8332, username and password, it tells me "pool set up failed", also without asking me for a bitcoin address to direct mined bitcoins to. I must be doing something obvious wrong, but I just cant figure it out. I would be very grateful if somebody could point out what Im doing wrong. |
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Most people don't own gold either and even the fiat savings of the average person is pathetically low - most are in debt.
why would people want gold? its useless. also, there are more millionaires in the world than there are bitcoin owners/users. |
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look on the 3day chart, and the rally is looking just like January 3013 and october 2013. it would be historically very unusual for it to take a u turn from this point.
I looked at the 3 day chart and what I saw is 7 green candles in a row, kind of like August which also had 7 candles in a row except one was a red hammer candle ,and at the 7th candle the major consolidation began. It's not a U-turn, just a flat period. I dont see that. we have never had this kind of price action that does not lead to a new ATH. not this steep, not this smooth. we are trending up. |
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look on the 3day chart, and the rally is looking just like January 3013 and october 2013. it would be historically very unusual for it to take a u turn from this point.
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This wave is being driven by infrastructure and the network effect. there is simply no infrastructure being built around alt coins like litecoin, nmc, ppc or dogecoin anything like that which is being built around bitcoin. the reality is that most alt coins will die, and none of the existing alts will keep up with the growth of bitcoin.
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