What do you make of the fact that the price goes up in small, continues steps - and then there come sudden big dumps. Most of volume is on down moves - but it still goes up. Look
s like the buyers have more cold blood - while the sellers are more impulsive.#
This pattern is called a "right translated cycle". Typical price action in a bull market. Slow methodical rises with short scary vertical drop corrections. Bear will markets show the opposite action, slow steady declines punctuated by sharp short-covering rallies. More info: http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Cycles2.htmlBut is it normal for a "right translated cycle" to have so much more volume in the down turns? This is overall not really true. We see strong volume accumulation on the upside over the past weeks. |
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Don't worry, the cycle starts back over in 1-4 months!
Months? I doubt it will be that long. My guess is we will be break 14.4$ by next week. $13.40 next week...or the week after $13.50 was pretty comfortable. Love it when I am right  Me and my subscribers too. :-) My subscribers have probably profited a lot from my correct bullish forecast. |
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Hey you wall experts here,
I was just looking at a 831 BTC bid wall at $14.25 USD which as the highest and only order there stood for about 10 mins with virtually no activity. Then there was a flurry of relatively small trades at which point it was taken back to about $14.03. Looking at the wall I had to assume, unlike 'safer' walls further back, that it was actually the intention of the trader that the order be sold. So why would it be taken away? I'd appreciate something that can help me make some sense of that one.
don't pay to much attention to walls... just buy buy buy i'm still holding my short but looks like cheap coins aren't getting any cheaper... |
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5000+ dump. Took it down to 13.97 but the bids were back up to 14.21 within a minute or two  |
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The particularities of the patterns are irrelevant for this to work. As long as enough traders "use them" in their analysis they work. That's why simple patterns are usually more predictive than complex ones that are used less widely.
+1.
Well said. i That's a odd response. He is basically saying that it works because it is self-fulfilling prophecy, not because there is any psychological basis. The "psychology" is the "herding behaviour" In other words, you are saying that the patterns (as well as all the Elliott wave nonsense) are just arbitrary rules that work as long as everyone follows them as a herd. I don't disagree with that statement, but I think most TA "experts" would. I understand your view, but it is not rational if it is not based on facts, evidence, and verifiable research. This is exactly the point. Markets are NOT rational and fact based but purely psychological and thus is why you get irrational exuberance bubbles and crashes. And because most people do not know about this or don't believe it, most people sell right at the bottom and buy at or close to the took And only those who are " rational about the irrationality of markets" are in the right side... |
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and what also comes to my mind is that often the big rallies started in Russia, then continues in Western Europe. And then North American and Latin American bitcoin traders who still slept during that time, found themselves having to buy 1 or 2 $ higher...
If 14 $ falls (there are only 3.5 k BTC left at 14 $...), it will get even more exciting and if it happens before America wakes up.. We will see.
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The particularities of the patterns are irrelevant for this to work. As long as enough traders "use them" in their analysis they work. That's why simple patterns are usually more predictive than complex ones that are used less widely.
+1.
Well said. That's a odd response. He is basically saying that it works because it is self-fulfilling prophecy, not because there is any psychological basis. The "psychology" is the "herding behaviour" In other words, you are saying that the patterns (as well as all the Elliott wave nonsense) are just arbitrary rules that work as long as everyone follows them as a herd. I don't disagree with that statement, but I think most TA "experts" would. |
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new 5 months high seconds ago at 13.95 $ and prices still moving higher. forecast on track
13.98 $. exciting... indeed. After this long calm, I can barely keep myself from shaking. It might be because of the cold in here, too, though. Where's my miner! |
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it was destined to happen. this is from one of my updates. i drew this triangle for my subs back on 12/28/12 and had been recommending a buy. see that green ascending arrow at the end of the triangle? price started up to the day from there which was 1/3/13:
probably same with s3052 and other "analysts". The technical picture was clear... the robo-sheep act on it. Thanks robo-sheep! you are right. the underlying factor behind technical analysis is psychology = herding behavior. but it works... I'd like to hear the psychological basis for a head and shoulders pattern. Can you link any relevant studies? I didn't think so. The particularities of the patterns are irrelevant for this to work. As long as enough traders "use them" in their analysis they work. That's why simple patterns are usually more predictive than complex ones that are used less widely.
Well said. |
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If $14 falls will we see 15?  looks like an avalanche erupting soon ... |
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it was destined to happen. this is from one of my updates. i drew this triangle for my subs back on 12/28/12 and had been recommending a buy. see that green ascending arrow at the end of the triangle? price started up to the day from there which was 1/3/13:
probably same with s3052 and other "analysts". The technical picture was clear... the robo-sheep act on it. Thanks robo-sheep! you are right. the underlying factor behind technical analysis is psychology = herding behavior. but it works... I'd like to hear the psychological basis for a head and shoulders pattern. Can you link any relevant studies? I didn't think so.
link: https://sites.google.com/site/tradingstrategiesschool/module-2-chart-pattern-analysis/head-shoulders-and-reverse-head-shoulders
and more in detail explanation in those books http://www.elliottwave.com/books/ewp/default.aspx?code=ocomihttp://www.elliottwave.com/socionomics/default.aspx?code=ocomihttp://www.elliottwave.com/psishsb/default.aspx?code=ocomi |
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it was destined to happen. this is from one of my updates. i drew this triangle for my subs back on 12/28/12 and had been recommending a buy. see that green ascending arrow at the end of the triangle? price started up to the day from there which was 1/3/13:
probably same with s3052 and other "analysts". The technical picture was clear... the robo-sheep act on it. Thanks robo-sheep!
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looks rather like panic buying of the bears that got trapped
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new 5 months high seconds ago at 13.95 $ and prices still moving higher. forecast on track
13.98 $. exciting... |
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new 5 months high seconds ago at 13.95 $ and prices still moving higher. forecast on track
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the reason is clearly technically.
bitcoin prices broke out of the sideways consolidation I highlighted to my subscribers already on Dec 23. And after the last short term breakout alert, prices indeed broke out
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I continue to say its a bull trap, unless mid-14s will be broken with 130k+ green daily volume sticks. For a while we have 40k sticks max. This is weak.
this isnt forex, the same rules dont apply. Horizontal, irregardless of volume is positive for bitcoin and will continue to be until we cross into 3 digit prices.
Bitcoin has many many times surprised to the upside and invalidated topping calls from many other analysts |
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We continue to offer new subscribers trial offers at 1.99 BTC per month in January.
Send an email to S3052 at gmx dot ch
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