Matt, why dont you label this chart. dont label it as a primary, because thats against the rules!!  if you failed to label it primary, you would miss out on the entire move from $50-$1200. the entire thing is invalid right. your hero DanV would have not served you well in this case. |
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You might have traded EW for 4 years and you may well have seen a thing or two but that doesn't mean you are right. I am a spaz, when it comes to TA and trading in general, yet I seem to remember me being right when stating we were definitely going down from $800 and you with your 4 years experience, and the majority of others here, being wrong.
when you eventually realise what EW means you will realise how naive what you have just said was. I do not begin and end every sentence I write with probably imo because I think that should be understood on a speculation forum. EW is ambiguous and does not determine the fundamentals - LOL. DanV has been 'wrong' many times, I have been 'wrong' many times but we have both made good money trading EW. there are always multiple pathways the market can take from juncture to juncture. the strength that makes EW king of all TA is that we have precise and detailed expectations that when broken allow us to cut losses (usually at a profit) and maximise profits before the market reverses. also it is a leading indicator, Ill be in at the tip of the wave before the macd turns. in this case 355. If you remember the earlier case less selectively, you will remember that I knew we could be in a wave B. but I wanted confirmation. you would also remember that I shorted from 750 all the way down to 450 alongside the other EW analysts when it was proved to be the case, so I was not 'wrong'. you simply thought the price was too expensive for your liking, which is not very good EW analysis. what is a bitcoin worth btw? |
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What is your analysis again?
impulsive C wave complete by all fractals, impulsive primary off 339. wave V or B in process or close to being in process. no more lows. |
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Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?
not true. there are plenty of savage bears around here. |
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From my understanding, on an impulse wave the starting point of Wave 1 and the base of Wave 2 provides the tangent points for the trendline for the EW. Once that line has been confirmed as breached, then whatever EW pattern that was occurring on the correct side of that trendline, is finished. This is the way that DanV reckons that it is. I don't care what anyone else says. I like the way that DanV does things cos I have seen the results.....yes, with the benefit of hindsight but DanV never had the benefit of hindsight when he put his videos and charts out. In your BTC Fractals chart, Your primary impulse EW pattern is almost over before it has even begun due to the trendline beween the starting point of I ($995) and the termination point of II ($910), killing the potential EW dead just 2-3 days later in the mid $800s. That is one reason why to my understanding, your Primary EW count is wrong and if u get the Primary EW wrong, then all the subordinate EW are also going to be wrong, and then there is also the small matter of what went before that and how it fits into the overall picture? Like I said, DanV is a hypocrite. that is not a rule at all, trend lines do not occur every where that EW occur. If you have followed DanV over the last few weeks you have lost a lot of money. How many weeks have you studied EW? well I have actually traded EW for more than 4 years and Ive seen a thing or two. I am seeing my analysis play out right now and Im making money. DanV has the zombies on tradingview short from 430. |
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Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Wave analysis may be very ambiguos, most of the time it is. sometimes the only thing we can truly know is the junctures in retrospect, but not the future. after all, ew is only the reflection of fundamentals, and fundamentals can change in a flash. I do not go about breaking the rules of EW analysis because they are pretty robust, but you must realise that EW science is very young and relatively unexplored, and that the 'rules' are only written by a few humble people. DanV takes the rules to ridiculous levels, and yet he is a hypocrite, calling my analysis invalid because of overlaps on a one minute scale of an hourly analysis on a BTCCNY chart. there is no valid bitcoin analysis down to the 1min chart, especially his own. U on TradingView? If so show me a link your EW charts. The one I have found on here has price action over lapping trendlines n shit. overlapping waves are allowed within leading diagonals and expanding wedges as primary waves. overlapping trendlines? |
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Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Wave analysis may be very ambiguos, most of the time it is. sometimes the only thing we can truly know is the junctures in retrospect, but not the future. after all, ew is only the reflection of fundamentals, and fundamentals can change in a flash. I do not go about breaking the rules of EW analysis because they are pretty robust, but you must realise that EW science is very young and relatively unexplored, and that the 'rules' are only written by a few humble people. DanV takes the rules to ridiculous levels, and yet he is a hypocrite, calling my analysis invalid because of overlaps on a one minute scale of an hourly analysis on a BTCCNY chart. there is no valid bitcoin analysis down to the 1min chart, especially his own. |
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If everyone is predicting 5000 imagine what it will actually go to  I feel that one of these rallies bitcoin just *has to* fool everybody and skip the final double exponential growth week and go straight to crash  This would happen if, say, the next rally was an a wave of an abc (ew theory). If it breaks out from this weak chart with no volume and no base then watch out because that might actually be the case. I think you mean B wave of EW theory. C wave bottoming within the range of IV $50-$266. |
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Care to provide an explanation of how a 2,000% increase is supposed to occur within the next 6 months?
I dont think that OP had given a fundamental analyse. Looks like pretty technical to me. So i wonder why you always try to be off subject? I don't see a 2000% increase happening via T.A. either. TA is easy - uptrend continues, 2000% no problem. FA is easy - legit exchanges open, exponential user adoption continues. 2000% no problem. |
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I am totally new to EW analysis. But have been following the excellent DanV.
Last night I tried to make a bullish EW chart which would have $340 low as the culmination of a Dec 2013 - April 2014 Wave 4. I couldn't do it. Any way that I reshuffled the wave counts in a way that conforms to EW guidelines resulted in the conclusion that there must be a lower low, or a retest of the $340 low at the very least....
I also couldn't get the short term bullish/long term bearish alternative to work either, whereby $340 represents the whole of Wave A, which would mean that we are now in the midst of Wave B, and could expect another leg up from here as soon as price breaks. If this were to be the case, then we could perhaps expect a run up to the $700 range before Wave B topped out and from there, it would be a long way down to considerably lower lows than $340 for the final Wave C of the Primary Wave 4.
If you are new to EW analysis, no wonder you cant make a bullish chart. How do you judge DanV to be excellent if you are not an EW analyst? DanV thought we would bottom at 320 on the 10th May, and he has been wrong on every day trade since the 10th, whereas I have been buying at 430 since weeks ago. There is a valid count for a complete wave C. There is also a valid count for a primary off 339. |
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This afternoon at the china financial summit (more or less now), they are scheduled to talk about internet finance/payment. no doubt bitcoin will be mentioned.
I wonder, is this private or public?
any chinese whispers going about? some people are putting together the puzzle?
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Everything in nature is fractal, from leaves on a tree to the clouds in the sky. The Bitcoin market is part of nature, it is controlled by a mass of human beings and is organic in nature. It is no surprise it has fractal qualities. However these fractals probably aren't very good for accurate predictions. However, there have been 3 big pump and dumps for Bitcoin, these are also likely fractal in nature, and are a good prediction there will be more large pump and dumps in the future http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/That cant be easily generalised. In general free market conditions, a zero sum game is always tough to make money in, fractals or no. But when fractals systems are caused by greater fundamental events, the chart begins to tell a story. If we dont know future events, the second best thing we can know is when the events that have come and gone had their net effect on the market. an unexpected fundamental event will always cause a wave, the wave will unfold in fractals, and sometimes we can see when the fractal system has terminated. 339 low was a prime example. |
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fractals work with an element of randomness as well, do they not? Chaos theory and all that? I'm waaaaay out of my depth here, but the loose understanding I have of fractal science suggests that they are not useful as indicators of future movements, i.e. they may go up, down or sideways, depending on a myriad of external factors. (?)
jeez, this EROWID science stuff...I'm just digging myself deeper (derper)
it's all about the market conditions. on a quiet day when nothing is fundamentally changing the free market can be effectively random, yet also retrospectively move in fractals. But, for example after an important news release a lot of people may panic sell. this will cause a wave that has natural limits. when the wave is complete, it will have formed a complete fractal system. using fractals we can pinpoint a high confidence entry. The best real example of this is the 339 low, It gave a very impressive entry using EW analysis. I got on at 355 as soon as I realised. I do tend to disagree that the market is random. Global Liquid markets inevitably cause wave action. just like global weather systems. the waves that roll up onto the beach are always regular wavelength and consistent amplitude, yet they are the harmonic result of uncountable random events at sea. |
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Not enough trains for a time like this...
Bitpay has huge announcement tomorrow, right after a large rally that breaks us out of the descending triangle (could be natural support, could be insider knowledge).
EITHER WAY, ALL ABOARD!!
really? bitpay is going to make an announcement tomorrow? |
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we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect. I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been. thats entirely speculation. many would argue we havent even reversed down. when you were saying sell, you had no better reason for it than the price was too high and you didnt like it. At that point we were at a juncture, after completing an ABC, C being impulsive, and we were going up, rather impulsively. I told you that i could see further down side was possible but I held until I could see that for sure, and then I made great deal shorting from cerca 750. Mind you I called the mt gox bottom and the 339 bottom. |
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we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
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Desperation hasn't even settled in...
greed has set in.... everyone wants cheap coins. |
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CCMF! lol. prolly gonna break the exp trend soon but fun to watch.  |
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here is an agressive possible count.  |
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