Normally, the short-term price curve should look like a random walk. That said, a vast majority being certain the price cannot drop is excessively bullish.
And every time I see excessive bullishness, I think it's time for a crash. A market in which more than half of the people take "up!" as the only answer to speculation isn't too healthy.
I'm not sure about a crash, but a correction was certainly due. When people are running around the forums shouting 'only way is up' and 'look out $8, here we come!' in unison then you know something is wrong. Too many people are on one side of the trade. It's like the market knows how and when to effectively slap down the hubris. |
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It's because of bitcoinica. When there were no mass adoption of bitcoinica, the price was $2. After that many bulls come to bitcoinica and take long position with 2,5 leverage. This lead to the current situation ($2 + $2 * 2,5 = 7) when bitcoinica is constantly showing "no buys" sign. I don't think it's quite that simple, but it does bring up another point for me. If this rally from $2-$3 to $7 is highly leveraged, what would a reversal in price look like? People are betting on a higher price with other people's money, but if the market turns it could be a swift and violent shock downwards as speculators are liquidated and short selling intensifies. It's easy to bet with leveraged money when the market is rising. |
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A lot of resistance, but I hope you're right.
Just keep firing more cash at the asks. You'll make them give up eventually  Cute kitties. Are they hiding from the bears? |
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Expecting the price to go up when the good wife starts?  Bitcoinica is out of reserve.... With so much hype surrounding one episode of a TV show I expect people to buy just before the show airs in the anticipation of new users flooding in. When the stampede does not ensue, there will be quite a bit of selling pressure. It appears to me that too many people are on one side of the trade at the moment. The hype has gone as far as people describing the TV show as 'the bitcoin show'. It reminds me of the Amiga zealots of the early 90s (I was a proud member) who would talk endlessly about capturing a glimpse of an Amiga on TV or in a movie and think it was the second coming. Everyone else didn't care. |
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I thought I was stuck with a whole bunch of expensive bitcoins when the price kept falling to $6.25 and below. I was pleasantly surprised when I woke up this morning to see someone had bought all of them up at a profit. If the price continues to go up then so be it. But I'm glad I got out of a losing position.
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Have you sold?
Of course. I'm trying to save y'all now. Next time you are going to sell based on the "science" of predicting the future let me know. I have made a lot of BTC from panic sellers. I say that because predicting what that ticker is going to do next is not possible. You can guess, and since it is a binary choice you will likely be right 50% of the time. Even among professional financial analysts the statistics are appalling. Few ever do better than chance. That's a fact. The real financial professionals masquerade as journalists on the nightly news. They're always 100% accurate, as hindsight is 20/20. Recently they just keep repeating the following three phrases: - The market fell on European debt fears - The market was buoyed by better than expected employment/housing/manufacturing figures - The market rose as European debt fears eased |
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Go post your manipulation messages - but be original! Don't post the same old drivel again and again.
I'm manipulating myself at the moment. |
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no
The science works fool ! ignore it at your own risk ! There is no science in chart reading. People like to pretend there is of course. I'm off to rub my Elliot Waves. |
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The hype about 'bitcoin on TV' (not really, but anyway) and one small booth at CES had already been well and truly priced into bitcoin's price. We'll need further product or service announcements or the correction downwards will continue.
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I predict the TV show will have no further impact on bitcoin, and that after viewing it people will be complaining on this forum that 'they didn't mention bitcoin enough' and 'they didn't say how great it is'.
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Bitcoin is still seen by many as either a scam or a toy currency for nerds, akin to trading World of Warcraft gold. Traditional methods of chart reading, analysis, and other such voodoo often don't work as bitcoin is very immature compared to more established markets. Stocks or currencies that have grown by 1000x or more since their inception a few years ago are very rare indeed, so there is little to compare bitcoin to.
Promoting bitcoin trading to outsiders often looks like trying to pull people into a pyramid scheme. The short to medium term solution to gaining more traders is to simply let the market play out and hopefully natural interest will build over the next few years.
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The 0.0123 btc trader makes for some pretty graphs. He grappled with my bid and took dozens of bites out of it. Maybe the bot owner's goal is to generate thousands of trades, pulling the bids and asks into a tighter spread and then attacking the dumb market by suddenly buying or selling thousands of bitcoins. It appears to be working again. I predict another wild swing in the next few hours.
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How many transactions can one have open? I've only had a hundred at a time at most, as it takes a few seconds to place each order through PHP. Snooze.
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Whatever happens, MtGox wins. Every bout of volatility is a gold mine for them through fees. A thin market with no action is what MtGox doesn't want.
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Buy to 6.89, then sell to 6.001. Crazy spread Seriously, someone's just fucking around with the market right now. Doing it for lulz. |
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Delicious MtGox action.
$6.30 to $6.89 instant spike, then to $6, and back to $6.38. Let's hear it for stability!
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Next year miners should rise prices twice because of 25 bitcoins per block. Explain your reasoning here. Why would miners minting fewer bitcoins per block (not per effort - that's insulated from price by the Difficulty) drive prices up? It's kind of a risky assumption to make, but given that price is based on supply and demand, a cut in supply will increase the price. But you're right - the difficulty, and the fact that miners can stop mining whenever they feel it is no longer worthwhile, keeps the price from rising solely due to the cost of mining. I want to see someone with $100M guarantee to buy Bitcoins at $4.50/each forever. I wonder what sort of confidence would be given if such a guarantee was in place?
Price floors have their own disadvantages. Such as? If the real world utility of bitcoins places their value at something like $3, then a $4.50 floor price supported by one individual is harmful to bitcoin. No one except the $4.50 supporter would want to buy one. All new bitcoins end up in one person's hands, who obviously won't be happy to sell them off cheaper to someone else. It all depends on how the market reacts. Will it think 'great, someone is supporting at $4.50, so I'm confident to use bitcoin' or 'there's some sucker out there willing to pay a lot more than everyone else. Sell!' It's ironic that some people are dreaming of benevolent price manipulation when the whole point of bitcoin was that no one entity can grab control of bitcoin. This forum is littered with old posts such as 'BTC can't fall below $X because mining cost is $Y', and the market has provided follow up proof that such assertions are always false. |
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I saw the Bitconica announcement posted on Bitcointalk after the volatility started, not before. Unless a lot of users suddenly signed on, fed their accounts and then proceeded to lose it all I would suggest new Bitcoinica users were not at fault.
Having said that, playing with Bitcoinica is kinda like playing with nitroglycerin. It's great fun, but has a tendency to blow up at random moments even in careful hands. I'm happy to stay away from the Bitconica casino and use my own money for trading.
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What the hell more bid walls getting taken down. Is someone cancelling the orders or are they being sold into and mtgoxlive isn't showing them?
I took all my bids down. Why keep them there if someone's willing to spark panic and dump the price from $7 to $6 within minutes? We could bounce back, or head to $5. Only the dumper knows. It was fun while it lasted. Indeed it was. I was posting recently that I was ready to sell everything at a moment's notice. Didn't lose much, but only through luck rather than any real plan. Dump happened Monday evening when I was watching. Many people haven't been so lucky. Ready to buy when the time is right (who knows when that is). To make matters worse, MtGox's API is all fucked up so nobody can really see what's going on. MtGoxLive has been almost dead for me. Updates maybe once every few minutes. WebSocket still works. Huge amounts of order spamming happening. MtGox just can't handle the volume. When I manually put an order in it takes more than half a minute to execute. |
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What the hell more bid walls getting taken down. Is someone cancelling the orders or are they being sold into and mtgoxlive isn't showing them?
I took all my bids down. Why keep them there if someone's willing to spark panic and dump the price from $7 to $6 within minutes? We could bounce back, or head to $5. Only the dumper knows. It was fun while it lasted. Indeed it was. I was posting recently that I was ready to sell everything at a moment's notice. Didn't lose much, but only through luck rather than any real plan. Dump happened Monday evening when I was watching. Many people haven't been so lucky. Ready to buy when the time is right (who knows when that is). |
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