For the benefit of the thread I need to point out that k9quaint doesn't want others to have an asic and he's really disappointed bfl are delivering now... he's well known for it. I am flattered that Nottm28 feels that I am enough of a threat that he must follow me around with boilerplate Ad Hominem in a futile attempt to deflect criticism from BFL. ASICs are available from ASICMiner and Avalon and they have shipped in bulk and together have quadrupled the network hashrate. BFL has not delivered enough product to impact the network hash rate at all. Why would I be disappointed in BFL? They have captured millions of dollars that would have otherwise resulted in the deployment of mining devices. Thanks to them I got months worth of lower difficulty. Now that ASICMiner and Avalon are both generally available, BFL is irrelevant from a network hash rate point of view. |
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So... I haven't been paying attention.
Are all the engines equivalent performance, and if so... what is the performance per engine?
2 chips per Jalapeno ~28 engines for 5000 MH/s, if we assume each engine produces 1 hash per clock then the engines are running at ~180Mhz and doing 180Mh/s Imagine how much it stung to go from 1 chip @ $40-60 apiece to 2 chips per Jalapeno. That probably blew up their margins on all of their $179 era pre-orders. Heatsink + fan: $15 PCB: $20 Case, cable, and power brick: $15 2 chips: $100 Estimate COGS of Jalapeno is $150. Those are some slim margins @ $179 retail. |
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Calculating expected past performance in BTC of a mining device should be trivial. A 5GH/s device will produce a low variance stream of diff 1 shares. Each difficulty time period is discrete and one need only multiply the expected shares for that time period times the PPS rate for that period. PPS rates are based on difficulty and the fee charged by the pool, so it should be easy to generate them for any difficulty time period. In fact one could probably just ask BTCGuild and get the history of PPS rates for that pool over the last 8 months.
It sounds like the simplest consequential damages from Widgetco would be the BTC that would have been mined. BTC are readily obtainable, so it shouldn't be an issue to ask for them as damages.
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I like that there is a forum ad directing people to this thread, and that if they decide to see where the thread headed, going to the last page (like me!) this is what they read.
BitcoinTalk you always have something to offer don'cha?
If you read the thread though, you will see that the guy who is paying for the ad that led you here lost his 2012 bfl orders for shouting his mouth off and not knowing when to stop. Now, his bitterness is attracting others here to see his major fail. It attracted some lawyers too. They must smell blood. All thanks to this gem: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=217036.msg2290818#msg2290818 |
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Thank you for your order from Butterfly Labs! Your order (#2243) was shipped via USPS, USPS Priority Mail on 6/1/2013. You can track your package at any time using the link below.
Did you get paid to post this? Why did you do it? Why create a new topic instead of using some existing one?Hopefully, BFL can graduate to the point where there is one thread with people posting they received their orders. Unfortunately, it is still news when someone spots a BFL unit in the wild. Thus, I suspect the new thread created. Well, that's odd... So when some happy guy opens a thread to mention a received product form BFL, that's wrong, because you know...you have to use an existing one. But when countless threads about BFL where the same trolls post the same shit over and over again appear one after the other, well, that is OK because trolls don't need to graduate. Hardly countless: There are 2 large BFL threads that have been going on for a while, one about BFL in general the other about a specific BFL order: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=150803.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=207331.0Since April 1st there are 9 "a user has jalapeno in hand" threads that I found with a quick search over the last 15 pages of this forum. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=221413.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=222762.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=218480.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191058.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189354.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181849.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=188801.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=190012.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181855.0Having a single thread where all confirmed Jalapeno arrivals can be posted & tracked would be useful. |
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Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?
Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment. They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate. According to http://dustcoin.com/miningAt 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty. At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day. Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week. At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC. IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate. Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope. Purchased today, a blade would generate 64 in 52 weeks. And for every week earlier you purchased, its an additional 3 coins. Ie mine purchased 3-4 weeks ago = ~73 with frozen exchange rates. ROI for purchased today is about 27 weeks. EDIT: Its also worth noting that the main ROI is actually from expected currency shifts. 52 weeks is a long, long time in btc terms. At what rate of difficulty growth are you assuming that 64BTC in 52weeks? |
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Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?
Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment. They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate. According to http://dustcoin.com/miningAt 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty. At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day. Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week. At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC. IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate. Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope. |
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Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization. ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people. How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?
Together, ASICMiner and BTCGuild could attempt a 51% attack. Presuming of course that there is some hash power on BTCGuild that is discrete from ASICMiner. The ASICMiner deployment alone controls over 20% of the network. |
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Thank you for your order from Butterfly Labs! Your order (#2243) was shipped via USPS, USPS Priority Mail on 6/1/2013. You can track your package at any time using the link below.
Did you get paid to post this? Why did you do it? Why create a new topic instead of using some existing one? Yes, many people pay people to post about orders here...  Then what's the use of a new thread? Just create a thread "I got my Jalapeno" and all can post there. There is no need to always create a new thread for everyone that gets theirs. Uh... Am I missing something? That's EXACTLY what he did. So your beef is now with the verbiage of the thread title? I'm telling you guys. We really need an IQ test, in addition to the existing n00b cage. Some people are just too stupid to be allowed on the internet, unsupervised. Why wouldn't you want to have a thread entitled "If you have received a Jalapeno, post here with pics." thread like Avalon, ASICMiner, Blackarrow, etc have? |
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What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.
That is a good return, but compare the price to the Avalon units and 50BTC for 12GH/s is fairly pricey. On the other hand, the erupter blades are actually available. The erupter blades will make money, but not everyone has $8K to drop on a single piece of hashing equipment. |
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Thank you for your order from Butterfly Labs! Your order (#2243) was shipped via USPS, USPS Priority Mail on 6/1/2013. You can track your package at any time using the link below.
Did you get paid to post this? Why did you do it? Why create a new topic instead of using some existing one? Hopefully, BFL can graduate to the point where there is one thread with people posting they received their orders. Unfortunately, it is still news when someone spots a BFL unit in the wild. Thus, I suspect the new thread created. |
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ASICminer is one of the few who delivered something that actually is in stock (not a Pr-order) and works right away out of the box, but I think that these ASICs in general are way over priced, regardless how much money you will make the first month (on This deff.factor, and BTC price), because when I invest my money I look at the long-term aspect.
A blockErupter @ 10 GH/s for 60+ BTC is really over priced this is ~ 7500 $ , my suggestion is a max of 20 BTC .
The USB miner @ 300MH/s for 2.5 BTC as well is really over priced ~ 315 $, my suggestion is a max of 0.8 BTC .
Avalon had 3 batches with total a of 1500 Unit, allowing customers to buy a max of 3 units for each customer, but I know people who ordered 3 units on all 3 batches, so do the math and I am sorry to tell you, you cant join the AVALON club
BFL, well what can I say about BFL, if they just really had something to deliver on time , they really have a reasonable price.
why I stopped caring about ASICs and mining BTC in general is for this exact reason, as a small miner and a father of 4 kids, there is no way that I can afford to buy these ASICs, I know that these chips are the future of BTC mining and it is really a good thing for the network security, but the fact that there is a VIP club or let me put it in other words, a club of people with a bag of money investing in these ASICs, which means that few people controlling a big part of the network, just because these prices doesn't allow all of us to participate and get the chance to be a part of it.
these company’s are making a huge profit out of you guys. the first batch of blockErupter went for around 19xx BTC this is more than 240,000 $ for 50 blocks( 500 GH/s)
Just think about it
ASICMiner and Avalon are choosing to charge whatever the market will bear. BFL is not able to deliver in enough volume to affect the price of mining equipment. |
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Unraveling who the BFL directors are and the source of BFL's funding are the only things I am curious about. Right now, there are only two threats to BFL's operations:
1) The executives and board pay themselves exorbitant salaries and burn all the cash on themselves. Knowing who the directors are would address this concern.
2) If BFL only has pre-orders as a source of cash, then their cashflow is of serious concern. If they need more pre-orders to fund their backlog then they are vulnerable to the wave of ASICs due this summer. If they have investors, who are they and can they continue to write checks?
3) Is there any evidence of them mining to over costs? So yeah they need to see their figures... I wouldn't have an issue with them mining to increase margins, as long as they were able to fill customer demand. BFL's volume is so low right now, I am not sure it would matter in the long run to the thousands of pre-orders if BFL kept a few for themselves. |
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Unraveling who the BFL directors are and the source of BFL's funding are the only things I am curious about. Right now, there are only two threats to BFL's operations:
1) The executives and board pay themselves exorbitant salaries and burn all the cash on themselves. Knowing who the directors are would address this concern.
2) If BFL only has pre-orders as a source of cash, then their cashflow is of serious concern. If they need more pre-orders to fund their backlog then they are vulnerable to the wave of ASICs due this summer. If they have investors, who are they and can they continue to write checks?
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Unfortunately no. You want to increase the air that moves over the entire surface of the heat sink. If you suck, the air will take the shortest path possible through the heat sink blades leaving some surface area with sub-optimal surface flow. If you blow air, it forces air into every nook and cranny of the heat sink increasing airflow over the entire surface. Proper heat sink blade design will prevent back-pressure and eddies.
{Rolls Eyes} Did you have a specific criticism? Or were you just disagreeing with who posted the information? |
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3. Flip fan around so that it is blowing down
Wait, so the fan was originally pulling air through the heatsink? BFL engineering excellence right there.  Actually it makes sense to pull the heat away from the PCB rather than have hot air blow over it. I suspect the fan may have a poor blade design. The real problem is the casing. Unfortunately no. You want to increase the air that moves over the entire surface of the heat sink. If you suck, the air will take the shortest path possible through the heat sink blades leaving some surface area with sub-optimal surface flow. If you blow air, it forces air into every nook and cranny of the heat sink increasing airflow over the entire surface. Proper heat sink blade design will prevent back-pressure and eddies. An exception would be ducted heat sinks that have a clear input to output flow design, but that isn't what we have here. The casing is indeed strange. More thought was given to style than function. |
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You're right - I improperly worded my reply when I said "Exactly", as I do not agree with the sentiment that BFL has done anything wrong. I simply meant that I would prefer receiving miners to starting lawsuits, and I think any reasonable person would prefer the same.
I was sort of astounded by your response. Good thing I gave you another chance to clarify before I brought out the torches and pitchforks.  |
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Linking facts and explaining them to people.
The trouble with facts is, they completely destroy my argument. I can see why you spend so much time linking them. My ego can't take this. Welcome to my ignore list.You keep promising, but you never deliver on that threat. Sounds a lot like a company I know of... |
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If BFL is taken to court, then no one gets their miners. If they are not, then people get their miners, they just get them late.
So you don't want BFL to be taken to court because the penalties for their illegal activities will be the final nail in the coffin? Why would I want $800 instead of a money machine printing $800/day, even if it is 9 months later than expected? So you are fine with pyramid schemes built on pre-orders as long as you are near enough to the top of the pyramid that you stand a chance of profiting from those beneath you. Very telling. Nope. I do not believe BFL to be a pyramid scheme. They are a legitimate company with many setbacks in their production process. Then why would you worry about people suing and taking BFL down via the courts? You already said you don't care about BFL's illegal activities and just want people to refrain from suing them because you want your money printing machine. You could pick up any random Joe off the street and probably find 10 laws he's broken in that very day, but does that mean he deserves to go to jail? Those broken laws would be civil violations, not criminal ones. They fine you for those, not throw you in jail.  And yes, I would prefer that no lawsuits be brought against BFL. But at the same time, so does everyone who still has an order with BFL. They would all rather have their money printing machines instead of a lawsuit that is unlikely to even fully refund their order amounts. That's why I do not believe anyone will bring a legitimate lawsuit against BFL - because BFL will still deliver, those who have units on order know that they will, and those who do not believe they will do not have orders with BFL.
You should be rooting for others to bring lawsuits so judges could dismiss them as baseless (just like Josh claims). Except you fear that lawsuits might have merit. You are ok with some laws being broken as long as you get your money printing machine. It's fun how you try to twist around my words to make me look bad though.  I gave you every chance to clarify. You should not respond with "Exactly" if the statement is not actually exactly what you meant to say. Nonsense and abuse.
BFL PR machine hard at work generating pre-orders. |
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