Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

in short, will price rise or drop?

Note that those "Chinese Slumber" predictions are tests of a conjecture about the Huobi prices at late night local time being more predictable than prices at other exchanges or other times, or daily mean prices.  They are not meant to be taken as trading advice; readers beware.

That said, the prediction is at the top of the post: it says that the price at Huobi at the stated hour (~19:30 UTC) will be 2837 CNY, sightly higher than the last price at the same hour (2818 CNY).  The method does not try to predict the price between those two moments.

Possibly, Jorge's converting into a BTC bull?   

Once Jorge converts into a BTC bull, if that happens, then for sure we will be on our way (__________[fill in da blank]_________)

[JayJuanGee]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets    (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets 
2016 - 2 million new wallets 
2017 - 4 million new wallets 
2018 - 8 million new wallets 
2019 - 16 million new wallets 
2020 - 32 million new wallets 
2021 - 64 million new wallets 
2022 - 128 million new wallets 
2023 - 256 million new wallets 

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth.  If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.


2024 - 512 million new wallets     
2025 - 1 billion new wallets 
2026 - 2 billion new wallets 
2027 - 4 billion new wallets 
2028 - 8 billion new wallets 
2029 - 16 billion new wallets 
2030 - 32 billion new wallets 
2031 - 64 billion new wallets 
2032 - 128 billion new wallets 
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.

[CoinRocka]

  You're such a dung fly...  Bzz Bzz Bzzzzzz

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Krabby]

That is generally how it goes

[Nightowlace]

You want to give someone a heart attack? Have them download the bitcoins ticket app and then change it from USD to GBP when they aren't looking. #notcool

[Nightowlace]

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.

Yet here you are being all bearish.

[sonofliberty]

Dump will happen any minute now. I guarantee it.

[octaft]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets    (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets 
2016 - 2 million new wallets 
2017 - 4 million new wallets 
2018 - 8 million new wallets 
2019 - 16 million new wallets 
2020 - 32 million new wallets 
2021 - 64 million new wallets 
2022 - 128 million new wallets 
2023 - 256 million new wallets 

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth.  If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.


2024 - 512 million new wallets     
2025 - 1 billion new wallets 
2026 - 2 billion new wallets 
2027 - 4 billion new wallets 
2028 - 8 billion new wallets 
2029 - 16 billion new wallets 
2030 - 32 billion new wallets 
2031 - 64 billion new wallets 
2032 - 128 billion new wallets 
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

[JorgeStolfi]

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Does that mean that in 2033 every bitcoin user will own 2.56 billion wallets? Why would he need that? 


 

[adamstgBit]

are you a basic bitch?

[sonofliberty]

are you a basic bitch?

No.

[adamstgBit]

are you a basic bitch?

No.

Ah a crazy one!

[Krabby]

are you a basic bitch?

Yes.

[TeeBone]

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.

When i see more ultrabulls becoming neutral (like BillyJ), and not yelling FUD at real, negative events....THAT will be bullish.  

[jonoiv]

Are we seeing now the lowest point in bitcoin price for the next 6 months?

Probably the highest point in the next 6months.

100% true, never again $ 500

that's right. And it's not gonna stay long at the 400 level

The price $ 450 will be halved, and after this comnig recovery price to $ 370, and again, again, again to zero.


View Screen Capture

LOL, thats 10, TEN times today you've posted that irrelevant chart.

How is it irrelevant ?  He has been posting it for months, and so far it's been accurate.  

[chessnut]

Dump will happen any minute now. I guarantee it.

just to get to 450, stamp would have to dump 2k coins, on a very quiet day.

[Krabby]

I can draw lines on a graph too.