Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell?

[TERA]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong?

There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now.  (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers). Millions of hoarded coins are likely to be tempted to sell now too now that we are in a 1W downtrend. Then there is mining.

Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss.

[chessnut]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell?

well practically, they can or cant sell, if they can, they will sell it to offshore buyers. if they cant, then they wont.
it's a fact that this will be resolved. there is a finite supply of fools who bought to get rich quick. they will sell, and never sell again.
but I guess anything is possible, so it must fall right?

[chessnut]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong?

There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now.  (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers)

Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss.

is the volume fake, or not?

there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved.

[SFHere]

PBOC (Prod Bitcoin Over Crap)

Conspiracy? I think not.

[TERA]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong?

There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now.  (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers)

Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss.

is the volume fake, or not?

there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved.

We don't know exactly how much Chinese volume is 'fake' and how much is real. You don't have to attribute the falling to one particular thing. Just that supply > demand. There are millions of free coins floating around right now from various sources as well as a lack of buyers and interest for several reasons. This manifests into a downtrend. When the tides turn for whatever reason, you will see the downtrend reverse and indicators start to flip on the weekly chart.

[billyjoeallen]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell?

well practically, they can or cant sell, if they can, they will sell it to offshore buyers. if they cant, then they wont.
it's a fact that this will be resolved. there is a finite supply of fools who bought to get rich quick. they will sell, and never sell again.
but I guess anything is possible, so it must fall right?

As long as BTC is concentrated in the hands of people who have a negative fiat cash flow outside of BTC appreciation, selling pressure will continue. I know this because I am one of those people. I can survive for years before I run out, which means that if many others are in a similar situation, the down trend can last for years.

That doesn't mean the down trend will last for years, it only means it can. A crash is actually the bullish scenario. A long painfully drawn out slide is also possible.

The market could reverse at any time for any reason or no reason, but we are playing probabilities, not possibilities.

[chessnut]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong?

There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now.  (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers)

Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss.

is the volume fake, or not?

there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved.

We don't know exactly how much Chinese volume is 'fake' and how much is real. You don't have to attribute the falling to one particular thing. Just that supply > demand. There are millions of free coins floating around right now from various sources as well as a lack of buyers and interest for several reasons. This manifests into a downtrend. When the tides turn for whatever reason, you will see the downtrend reverse and indicators start to flip on the weekly chart.

40k bitcoins were bought just the other day, injecting more than 1billion yuan into the market cap. how many times can that be sustained? I see on the chart divergance on the macd on a daily scale, a head and shoulders, and the same on an hourly scale. the bear run is now weaker than the bull run, and whats more, nobody seems to care about the chinese news last night. we are rallying. im beginning to think the word trend is becoming cliche.

[nioc]

New update from OKCoin (2014-05-01 08:46:08)

RE: CCB "Declaration on the Prohibition of the use of my bank account for Bitcoin transactions."

Hello, my colleagues have been responsible for the company and related verified. No problem, our account hasn't been cancelled. Please rest assured.

It looks like banks have put the statement online without cancelling a single account. All exchanges still allowing fiat deposits as usual.

Find specific accounts being used for bitcoin trading and then cancelling them is a task ahead of them that they have to do work for and perform. However, it is easy to simply post a statement. The May 10 deadline I believe is just a deadline to make statements and not actually close accounts.

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[chessnut]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell?

well practically, they can or cant sell, if they can, they will sell it to offshore buyers. if they cant, then they wont.
it's a fact that this will be resolved. there is a finite supply of fools who bought to get rich quick. they will sell, and never sell again.
but I guess anything is possible, so it must fall right?

As long as BTC is concentrated in the hands of people who have a negative fiat cash flow outside of BTC appreciation, selling pressure will continue. I know this because I am one of those people. I can survive for years before I run out, which means that if many others are in a similar situation, the down trend can last for years.

That doesn't mean the down trend will last for years, it only means it can. A crash is actually the bullish scenario. A long painfully drawn out slide is also possible.

The market could reverse at any time for any reason or no reason, but we are playing probabilities, not possibilities.

the probability is another argument, when gaming companies are purchasing 40k bitcoins on a risky day I think the bear argument is losing it's grounds. this trend is showing strong signs of reversal.

[billyjoeallen]

lez go, to 460 and beyond!

Maybe in next 12h... I do not predict that it will be faster than this.

nonsense

 we are moments away!

Don't you ever get tired of being wrong?

[windjc]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell?

well practically, they can or cant sell, if they can, they will sell it to offshore buyers. if they cant, then they wont.
it's a fact that this will be resolved. there is a finite supply of fools who bought to get rich quick. they will sell, and never sell again.
but I guess anything is possible, so it must fall right?

As long as BTC is concentrated in the hands of people who have a negative fiat cash flow outside of BTC appreciation, selling pressure will continue. I know this because I am one of those people. I can survive for years before I run out, which means that if many others are in a similar situation, the down trend can last for years.

That doesn't mean the down trend will last for years, it only means it can. A crash is actually the bullish scenario. A long painfully drawn out slide is also possible.

The market could reverse at any time for any reason or no reason, but we are playing probabilities, not possibilities.

the probability is another argument, when gaming companies are purchasing 40k bitcoins on a risky day I think the bear argument is losing it's grounds. this trend is showing strong signs of reversal.

Chessnut will be right one day.

Unless Bitcoin goes to zero. Then he may never be right.

[windjc]

Last time buying on Houbi stopped around 3500.  Then it went down and flat for several days before "news" came and crashed it.

How high will it go this time before buyers are exhausted?  Maybe we get back to 3000?

That would be a good guess.

[chessnut]

Chessnut will be right one day.

Unless Bitcoin goes to zero. Then he may never be right.

hmm well if I remember correctly I was right just yesterday, and the day before. When we pass 3000 yuan you will be looking at a daily chart in the bulls favour. so it could be many months before buyers are exhausted.

[TERA]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong?

There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now.  (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers)

Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss.

is the volume fake, or not?

there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved.

We don't know exactly how much Chinese volume is 'fake' and how much is real. You don't have to attribute the falling to one particular thing. Just that supply > demand. There are millions of free coins floating around right now from various sources as well as a lack of buyers and interest for several reasons. This manifests into a downtrend. When the tides turn for whatever reason, you will see the downtrend reverse and indicators start to flip on the weekly chart.

40k bitcoins were bought just the other day, injecting more than 1billion yuan into the market cap. how many times can that be sustained? I see on the chart divergance on the macd on a daily scale, a head and shoulders, and the same on an hourly scale. the bear run is now weaker than the bull run, and whats more, nobody seems to care about the chinese news last night. we are rallying. im beginning to think the word trend is becoming cliche.

Has this 40K btc purchased news actually been confirmed by anyone as legitimate? I saw it linked on some Chinese site. Perhaps it's a Chinese pump before their next dump.

This purchase could technically happen 300 times. But who is to say it will happen even one more time? It takes more than just some occasional institutional investor to cause a reversal - there needs to be a trend of new people getting interested and actually wanting to use the technology, or a new market.

The daily chart is trumped by the weekly ema downcross. All the little patterns and indicators you are looking at will just get erased with a random giant red candle out of nowhere.

There was no chinese 'news' last night. A couple banks made statements but we already found out from the previous news that they were required to do this, and that is only two banks out of many.

[billyjoeallen]

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.

"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell?

well practically, they can or cant sell, if they can, they will sell it to offshore buyers. if they cant, then they wont.
it's a fact that this will be resolved. there is a finite supply of fools who bought to get rich quick. they will sell, and never sell again.
but I guess anything is possible, so it must fall right?

As long as BTC is concentrated in the hands of people who have a negative fiat cash flow outside of BTC appreciation, selling pressure will continue. I know this because I am one of those people. I can survive for years before I run out, which means that if many others are in a similar situation, the down trend can last for years.

That doesn't mean the down trend will last for years, it only means it can. A crash is actually the bullish scenario. A long painfully drawn out slide is also possible.

The market could reverse at any time for any reason or no reason, but we are playing probabilities, not possibilities.

the probability is another argument, when gaming companies are purchasing 40k bitcoins on a risky day I think the bear argument is losing it's grounds. this trend is showing strong signs of reversal.

A Gambling company.  Casino owners know value? I lived in Vegas before the great 2008 Crash. I assure you they do not.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

Has this 40K btc purchased news actually been confirmed by anyone as legitimate? I saw it linked on some Chinese site. Perhaps it's a Chinese pump before their next dump.

This purchase could technically happen 300 times. But who is to say it will happen even one more time? It takes more than just some occasional institutional investor to cause a reversal - there needs to be a trend of new people getting interested and actually wanting to use the technology, or a new market.

The daily chart is trumped by the weekly ema downcross. All the little patterns and indicators you are looking at will just get erased with a random giant red candle out of nowhere.

yeah it was confirmed.

how could it happen 300 times? that's wishful thinking. 300 market orders? or shall they put up a 5 million BTC buy wall on bitstamp?

I am using the daily chart. and I wish that you could guarantee that my 'little patterns' will be wiped out, but you cant. what we are seeing now  believe is the market preparing for July, when for the first time legit exchanges will be opening in America. we will see all the legit money that's been held back,  and perhaps china follow the lead of the USA as expected.

[chessnut]

A Gambling company.  Casino owners know value? I lived in Vegas before the great 2008 Crash. I assure you they do not.

I said Gaming, not Gambling.

[JorgeStolfi]

40k bitcoins were bought just the other day, injecting more than 1billion yuan into the market cap. how many times can that be sustained?

Bitcoin trading does not per se inject money into the market, nor does it change the market cap (= number of existing coins times the market price of one coin).  The coins and the yuan simply exchange hands. 

By the way, that same headline could have been phrased as "unnown investor decides to dump 40k bitcoins"