Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

I am closer to 50% than 100%, and all the time thinking of ways how to increase my stash (I don't need more money but cannot help it because I perceive this as the last life-changing buying opportunity for an ordinary guy). Perhaps somebody would like to buy PUT options for any maturity up to 90 days, any strike between 100-500 and any quantity up to BTC500? PM only.

Why you don't margin trade then?

I don't know where the price goes. By selling puts I win nevertheless: either I collect the premium, or I get to buy cheap + collect the premium.

The buyer's risk would be limited to the premium paid, and upside is quite good if the price dips, also no need to know when it does.

It's a different strategy for both than margin trading.

[1714263087]

1714263087

[1714263087]

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[TERA]

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

[joburgtaxi]

Oh man I am feeling so disillusioned with BTC at the moment just seems to be going one way and never comes back to the last consolidation/support level. Waiting for my break even price (if it ever comes) then I am outta here!!!

You are using a self defeating strategy that is impossible to win with.
1. If the downtrend continues, it will never reach your break even point while the downtrend is in force and you will hold on to a losing position indefinitely.
2. If your break even point is reached, that will mean that the downtrend has broken and it will be an uptrend, meaning it will be a terrible time to sell.

The only good moves are:
a. Commit to your position as a long term holding.
b. Sell now or at some point along the downtrend ceiling, taking a small loss. Then buy back later if/when the trend is confirmed to be reversed.

Thanks for the pick me up, I know what you are saying makes sense however my break even point ($575) seems so far away and just getting further everyday, in retrospect was a really stupid place to buy at but what is done is done.

I believe that I agree quite a bit with what Tera says in her response to you; however, it really sounds as if you over invested in BTC at the time that you invested or you do NOT have the stomach for investing in any potentially volatile assets.  Your state of mind, that comes through your writing, seems to indicate a potential for panic.... .. and what are you going to do if the price never goes back to $575?

Yet, if you pull out at $575 or $585 (in order to break even b/c of various administrative costs), then you will likely NOT have learned or become stronger from the situation - although maybe your lesson would have been that you learned about yourself and that you are NOT suited for certain kinds of investments?

I think if the market was not manipulated so much it would be easier to hold and stomach and rely on fundamentals for a recovery,  however it seems that there are people that are hell bent on keeping the price down no matter what the cost.

[Cassius]

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

You've said you're a current bear but long-term bull (I think). So where do you see the bottom?

[TERA]

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

You've said you're a current bear but long-term bull (I think). So where do you see the bottom?

I don't really know actually. Bottom hunting is just too hard and all I do is play the MACDs week by week. I did notice that this 6 week cycle seems a little bit stronger than the last in that there is more volume and accumulation going on in the upper channel of the trend than there was last cycle. So the bottom might not be too far away. Maybe $250-$350. I don't think it will possibly go below $150 unless there is some catastrophic failure or U.S. ban, based on connecting the support from the 2011-2012 chart.  Of course all of this can be changed by major events. For example exchanges could open in New York.  

[spooderman]

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

You've said you're a current bear but long-term bull (I think). So where do you see the bottom?

exchanges could open in New York.  

I thought they already had?

[TERA]

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

You've said you're a current bear but long-term bull (I think). So where do you see the bottom?

exchanges could open in New York.  

I thought they already had?

There was news by the New York regulator that the framework in which regulated exchanges can be launched should be in place no later than July and that they are accepting advance applications now. Nothing has actually been launched.

[JayJuanGee]

Oh man I am feeling so disillusioned with BTC at the moment just seems to be going one way and never comes back to the last consolidation/support level. Waiting for my break even price (if it ever comes) then I am outta here!!!

You are using a self defeating strategy that is impossible to win with.
1. If the downtrend continues, it will never reach your break even point while the downtrend is in force and you will hold on to a losing position indefinitely.
2. If your break even point is reached, that will mean that the downtrend has broken and it will be an uptrend, meaning it will be a terrible time to sell.

The only good moves are:
a. Commit to your position as a long term holding.
b. Sell now or at some point along the downtrend ceiling, taking a small loss. Then buy back later if/when the trend is confirmed to be reversed.

Thanks for the pick me up, I know what you are saying makes sense however my break even point ($575) seems so far away and just getting further everyday, in retrospect was a really stupid place to buy at but what is done is done.

I believe that I agree quite a bit with what Tera says in her response to you; however, it really sounds as if you over invested in BTC at the time that you invested or you do NOT have the stomach for investing in any potentially volatile assets.  Your state of mind, that comes through your writing, seems to indicate a potential for panic.... .. and what are you going to do if the price never goes back to $575?

Yet, if you pull out at $575 or $585 (in order to break even b/c of various administrative costs), then you will likely NOT have learned or become stronger from the situation - although maybe your lesson would have been that you learned about yourself and that you are NOT suited for certain kinds of investments?

I think if the market was not manipulated so much it would be easier to hold and stomach and rely on fundamentals for a recovery,  however it seems that there are people that are hell bent on keeping the price down no matter what the cost.

In some senses I agree with you, and I have found myself quite frustrated with bitcoin prices and manipulation too.  However, I believe that they can only hold the price down and manipulate downward for so long.  After a while, the upward momentum will get too strong and the manipulators will NOT be able to hold back some of the upward pressures.

All markets are manipulated to some extent, and the smaller the market, the easier it will be to manipulate the market.  In the case of BTC, it seems that the exchanges control the price, and there seems to be quite a bit of behind the scenes shenanigans. 

Surely, that manipulation needs to be accounted for in person's assessment of the situation regarding how much when and if to invest.

If you do NOT invest in BTC, then in what are you going to invest?

Well, each of us has to decide our own tolerances and in what we chose to invest our time, money and energies.

[dreamspark]

Seems OKCoin is testing their overseas platform.

https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008538.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Huston it is going up !!!!

YAY !!!! +$10 from a 2 hours!
Not bad

[aminorex]

that's quite good.  very interesting.

[Cassius]

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

You've said you're a current bear but long-term bull (I think). So where do you see the bottom?

I don't really know actually. Bottom hunting is just too hard and all I do is play the MACDs week by week. I did notice that this 6 week cycle seems a little bit stronger than the last in that there is more volume and accumulation going on in the upper channel of the trend than there was last cycle. So the bottom might not be too far away. Maybe $250-$350. I don't think it will possibly go below $150 unless there is some catastrophic failure or U.S. ban, based on connecting the support from the 2011-2012 chart.  Of course all of this can be changed by major events. For example exchanges could open in New York.  

Worth being prepared for lower 300s/200s, at any rate, I'd think.

[aminorex]

What price will bitcoin be at the end of 2014

27200 satoshi for 1 USD

[zby]

Reverse H&S yesterday - target above 460, then if we breaks 455 - there will be another H&S (less nicely looking) with even higher target 475.

The Chinese scare does not work any more.

I think we'll rebound significantly.

[p0peji]

Reverse H&S yesterday - target above 460, then if we breaks 455 - there will be another H&S (less nicely looking) with even higher target 475.

The Chinese scare does not work any more.

I think we'll rebound significantly.

Keep on dreaming, we will just bounce down from 450$.

[TERA]

Reverse H&S yesterday - target above 460, then if we breaks 455 - there will be another H&S (less nicely looking) with even higher target 475.

The Chinese scare does not work any more.

I think we'll rebound significantly.

The nature of the fractal is that the outer H&S keeps failing. One thing that should tip you off is that the volume in the head here is always lower than the volume in the shoulder. Also, this will probably be the last incarnation of the fractal because the end will be too close to the long term log downtrend for another even larger fractal to be drawn. So we either break through the downtrend or collapse down again. Which way will it go? I prefer to bet with the dominant trend.

[ShroomsKit]

Reverse H&S yesterday - target above 460, then if we breaks 455 - there will be another H&S (less nicely looking) with even higher target 475.

The Chinese scare does not work any more.

I think we'll rebound significantly.

Yes it works. It works just as good as the first time. 1 rumour about closing whatever on Twitter right now and we'll be below 400 easily.

[magicmexican]

Oh man such a shame that bitcoinbuilder closed trading, would love to see that goxcoin pump&dump in action

[chessnut]

Reverse H&S yesterday - target above 460, then if we breaks 455 - there will be another H&S (less nicely looking) with even higher target 475.

The Chinese scare does not work any more.

I think we'll rebound significantly.

Yes it works. It works just as good as the first time. 1 rumour about closing whatever on Twitter right now and we'll be below 400 easily.

actually the last rumour was not very eventful. keep in mind that around 12 bans ago we were at around ... 450.