Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

What is CCMF?

crypto currency moon forecasting

LOL, thanks, would have never guessed that And even Uncle Google was not helpful.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/choo-choo-motherfucker

[Jeezy911]

Darkblackguyshadowcoin seems to be doing well.

[KeyserSoze]

Well that is a shame. $480 before $580. I say it's a failure of science.

[ChrisML]

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

NOW>>>> as I type, ... volume is picking up on Stamp and bitfinex and the others are beginning to follow....  The price is dropping.. maybe $5 in the last 20 minutes...  HOWEVER... .how low will it go?  $470?  or $450?  Maybe I will buy a little bit if it goes below $450

You haven't bought anything the last 4 times it was at or below $450?

[TERA]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

[Raystonn]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

You answered yourself with your last sentence.  If we can make a new 3-day low once, we can make it again pretty easily.  The next major line of support is at 472.50.  If we breach that we're in bear territory, with the next major supports at 454, 400, and 355.50.  If we bounce off 472.50 and break above 515, that would be a pretty good bull sign.

Between 472.50 and 515 is no-man's land.  We float with no conviction in either direction.

We edge closer and closer to 472.50.  I expect to find some support there.  If we break through, we will head down quickly and finally reach capitulation.  If we remain above 472.50, I expect more boring drift.

[JorgeStolfi]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

[JayJuanGee]

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

NOW>>>> as I type, ... volume is picking up on Stamp and bitfinex and the others are beginning to follow....  The price is dropping.. maybe $5 in the last 20 minutes...  HOWEVER... .how low will it go?  $470?  or $450?  Maybe I will buy a little bit if it goes below $450

You haven't bought anything the last 4 times it was at or below $450?

My practice has been to buy BTC in increments over time, and I bought several times while the price was below $450. 

my buying increments look like this.... if that means anything.

452.70
446.44
439.82
428.68
418.60
456.35
453.61
444.93
427.50
412.00
341.19
406.26
394.59
440.89
413.60
416.04
454.65

I ran out of fiat while the price was in the $300s, so I was only able to buy a little bit of BTC while the price was in the $300 price range.  I am O.k. if the price does NOT go below $450 again, but that price just happens to be my next approximate buy point. 

Of course, I were to be fairly certain that BTC prices will fall lower than $450, then I will wait for the lower price to buy at the lowest possible price, but as we know waiting too long can sometimes be a mistake because the lowest price dips seem to come fairly rapidly and do NOT last too long... and even if they last for a period of time we cannot be certain how long it will last or whether the price will be going lower.

[JayJuanGee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[el_rlee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

Certainly not.

A negative Bitcoin price is highly unlikely

On a more serious note: Mining profits are still too good for the ones having access to hardware so the selling will continue until the difficulty catches up...

[TERA]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over.  The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

[windjc]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It won't go on forever, imo.

[JayJuanGee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

Certainly not.

A negative Bitcoin price is highly unlikely

On a more serious note: Mining profits are still too good for the ones having access to hardware so the selling will continue until the difficulty catches up...

How would we know the percentage of freshly mined bitcoins that are being dumped onto the market?

 I can see that dumping happening with some of the big pools to some degree in order to weed out some of the competition by selling while they are still making a profit and accordingly discouraging some of the smaller operations that are NOT making a profit.

However, contrarily, I would think that the miners as a whole may have an incentive to be strategic with their dumping and to hold their BTC for a while in order that the price would go up... which it seems that we are on the low end, regarding BTC prices,  at this point.

So they have competing and conflicting incentives that each of them are going to come to different calculations regarding how to proceed to maximize their own personal profits.

[windjc]

Houbi is remarkable. It literally takes 3000+ CYNs of volume to move it down 10 points.

[windjc]

If Miners are smart and big enough they should (and probably are) creating a futures contract with buyers. This would protect everyone involved.

[JayJuanGee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this.  Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so.  These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do.  They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.

[ihaveaquestion]

If Miners are smart and big enough they should (and probably are) creating a futures contract with buyers. This would protect everyone involved.

With such a low price, selling a futures does not seem a great idea to me. Miners already took many risks : the evolution of the hashrate, of the protocol, etc. You take great risks for great rewards, not to cut your opportunity to make great rewards because whatever fear of making money you have. To me, selling a part of your mined stash to keep mining makes sense, but not to sell futures or to try to keep the price low or to sell everything immediately. But many miners have bad strategies, and those ones are going to be out of the market and replaced by professionals. Already happening.

[TERA]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this.  Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so.  These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do.  They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.

I was bullish last week when I saw how the trend had appeared to be weakened and running out of steam. However, that did not mean that we were immediately breaking past $540 into higher levels without another high volume retest of lower levels. The key is volume. There needs to be a big red candle with a lot of volume which does not affect the new upward trend - and price continues to climb back up all the way to where the  candle originated.  So far this has not happened. I had high hopes of it happening last week but it hasn't so, the downtrend is back on until otherwise proven broken.

I don't think there is one bear in control of all of this or someone who has a malicious intent to bring the price down. Rather it is a collection of competing and opposing forces. It is a market - and right now one side is stronger than the other.

[windjc]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this.  Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so.  These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do.  They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.

I was bullish last week when I saw how the trend had appeared to be weakened and running out of steam. However, that did not mean that we were immediately breaking past $540 into higher levels without another high volume retest of lower levels. The key is volume. There needs to be a big red candle with a lot of volume which does not affect the new upward trend - and price continues to climb back up all the way to where the  candle originated.  So far this has not happened. I had high hopes of it happening last week but it hasn't so, the downtrend is back on until otherwise proven broken.

I don't think there is one bear in control of all of this or someone who has a malicious intent to bring the price down. Rather it is a collection of competing and opposing forces. It is a market - and right now one side is stronger than the other.

I actually think this scenario is less and less likely. Mainly because there are so many fewer coins being traded on exchanges now that Gox is gone and China has severe restrictions.  Everyone is holding or, if they are not, then they are doing transactions off exchange.

I am not sure anymore that there is enough fiat and coins on the exchanges for there to be a massive 200K volume day. Not unless the price drops to 270 or below and even then, I don't know how much can really be traded in one day anymore.

The formula should probably be more about the % of coins on exchanges being traded in a potential capitulation day. Of course there is no way to measure that % or cooresponding # to keep an eye out for.

If people don't sell, eventually fiat will arrive. But it could be 6+ months from now. Thats a long time for people not to sell.