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8121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 10:44:20 PM
Want to snag a rich guy? Accept Bitcoin.

I was thinking more in terms of being a hot blonde and hanging around the yacht club but ok. 
8122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 10:42:26 PM
Hardly doubt that the final big crash will come today. I think it will take about 1-2 weeks, when everyone feels safe and cozy, and then, it will hit in waves that last for about 24h-48h. The waves will be full of fun little bulltraps that are run by bots who make their decisions based on all activated orders that are over 1000$. When this is over, then we will see a lot of despair from people who used to cheer that BTC will never stop rising to da m00n. When 2 weeks have passed and value hasn't risen over 400$ and places like coindesk and cryptonews are publishing news "ALL IS DOOMED!", then we will see a new wave of despair from the same cheerleading folks who now say that BTC is a scam and they lost their life savings... Then there will be a slow downfall for about 3-6 weeks when miracles will happen and new "news" will be published that all is well and BTC will soon be the currency for the entire universe and then the price will rise again to about 3000-4000$.

At least that is my speculation on this manipulated market of cheers and despair Smiley


First half was correct.. let's wait for the other half Smiley

+1
8123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 03:02:24 PM
This flash crash doesn't seem very flashy or very crashy at the moment.  Going to try to go back to sleep - alarm set for 650 on Gox.  
8124  Economy / Speculation / Re: China bans bitcoin mining hardware on: January 07, 2014, 02:21:19 PM
If I understand correctly something like the chinese ebay is prohibiting the sale of crypto mining equipment?

yep

And coins. If not fake. 
8125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 12:52:10 PM
Why do people claim that Huobi's volume is faked?

dunno, at the least the 0% fees usually brings up the argument of bot trading to themselves

Why would you trade on Gox if you can trade on Huboi?  I bet most of the volume is just Westerners.
8126  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Tech can replace most national voteing system on: January 07, 2014, 11:03:53 AM
See the link in my signature. I am working on a voting system using Bitcoin.

I think the idea of one person one vote is a bit old fashioned so I do not see much point in it.

But if it was something that was needed, instead of people getting private addresses from the government they would register their public address when they go to vote. Only those addresses listed would be counted.

I am not sure how you would prevent people paying for votes though. That is why I believe your "vote" should be tied to your monetary contribution to the "government".

We are going to have to disagree on whether or not Donald Trump should get 10 million votes. 

But Donald Trump should be able to decide what his $10 million goes toward.


No.  Because then the only government projects left will be pork barrel projects.  People will only agree to fund projects where they get a kickback.  Donald Trump will only agree to find the new aircraft carrier if his defence subcontractor is selected to build it so he ends up earning a profit on his taxes.
8127  Other / Off-topic / Re: Thinking about naming my baby girl Bitcoin.. (due in 3 weeks) on: January 07, 2014, 10:52:37 AM
shame  shame on you.  exploiting your unborn child  abhorrent

Totally! Like all those spanish speakers naming their kids "Jesus". Thats right, stealing Jesus's thunder. How dare you!

Seriously, who cares. It's not like she won't grow up to be a wonderful person. Her best friends will call her "bit". OP it will be fine. IT's not like you're naming her "dollazzzz". :-)

Too many rum dipped carrots you.
8128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Better return by buying $35 per day of BTC on Coinbase, everyday? on: January 07, 2014, 09:58:20 AM
I learnt from multiple previous lessons that NEVER chase a stock or commodity or bitcoin UPWARDS, even if it feels you're missing out. Especially if you're slightly late to the take off. Better strategy for me if i missed the take off that worked is to be super patient, have some fiat ready and wait for a massive Dip, then accumulate on the dip. In a strong bull market that still has some life in it this always worked as the price tends to quickly recover from the major dips or stabilize close to where you bought and then take off in a few weeks or months.

this doesn't work in a dying market, as the price will continue to go downwards on the long run, which i don't believe Bitcoin is dying.

Not trying to be argumentative but if you do not yet have any stake sometimes you have to chase the market. There is real doubt whether the patient bears that didn't chase at 300 will get back in.

Very different for someone with an established position.
8129  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Tech can replace most national voteing system on: January 07, 2014, 09:51:05 AM
See the link in my signature. I am working on a voting system using Bitcoin.

I think the idea of one person one vote is a bit old fashioned so I do not see much point in it.

But if it was something that was needed, instead of people getting private addresses from the government they would register their public address when they go to vote. Only those addresses listed would be counted.

I am not sure how you would prevent people paying for votes though. That is why I believe your "vote" should be tied to your monetary contribution to the "government".

We are going to have to disagree on whether or not Donald Trump should get 10 million votes. 
8130  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Closed Loop ATM on: January 07, 2014, 09:35:22 AM
I am most definitely not a mathematician. But I don't think it would work.

I would stand in front of the ATM all day and arbitrage it. 

That means I would make a profit on every trade.  Trading is a zero sum game so the machine would make a loss on every trade.  Eventually all value in the machine would be destroyed.
 

It cannot be any other way.  There is no such thing as a perpetual motion machine or magic sausage machine. 

Maybe someone more skilled than I can show this mathematically. 
8131  Other / Off-topic / Re: Thinking about naming my baby girl Bitcoin.. (due in 3 weeks) on: January 07, 2014, 07:52:58 AM
Great suggestions, Michiel Smiley

Solution 4: change your own name to your Bitcoin address. So people can say "Well Mr. 1GtRVNSViobQwERuGncLg1axJAtVx2CXNt, where do you want us to wire your money? -oh wait"



Do we get to put his name through a tumbler?
8132  Other / Off-topic / Re: Thinking about naming my baby girl Bitcoin.. (due in 3 weeks) on: January 07, 2014, 07:43:47 AM
Don't do it - the media will spin it the wrong way.

Plenty of other ways to help the cause.
8133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Better return by buying $35 per day of BTC on Coinbase, everyday? on: January 07, 2014, 07:10:48 AM
We are currently well above the generally accepted exponential trend.

*if* we revert to trend then a DCA could quite reasonably out peform an "all in" on day 1. It

I entered the market for the first time in early December when the cost was over $1k.  My dollar cost average is now in the $700s because I did not go all in at that time. Instead I bought all the way down from 800 to 500 during the last crash (I lost my nerve and walked away from the computer when it dropped into the 400s).

I will act more aggressively to further lower my dollar cost average if I get the chance. On the flipside I am largely comfortable with my current level of holdings if the price only goes up.

So no I don't fully accept the reasoning above.  It is more accurate to say "it depends".   My DCA was only over 1 month though.  If you are doing it over a year then I agree you will probably lose on average by delaying your purchases.  Unless bitcoin falls in value over the long term. Which is entirely possible. 

Your mileage may vary.
8134  Economy / Speculation / Re: What happens if China economy fails? on: January 07, 2014, 07:04:12 AM
If the Chinese economy fails the Chinese communist party would go down with it (and they know it). Anything could happen. 
8135  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Tech can replace most national voteing system on: January 07, 2014, 05:38:24 AM
Not a criticism just a discussion - how do you stop users from selling their vote?

Especially if they can now publicly prove they voted a certain way.

good point, would it be wrong to sell your vote? isn't this just a form of price/opportunity discovery.

The reason votes are done secretly is (in part) for the purpose of preventing people from selling their vote.  There are no buyers because the buyers have no way of knowing whether the seller was truthful. 

While price discovery could be a function - vote buying is not how democracy is supposed to function. (At least not directly, it definitely occurs indirectly by pork barreling). 
8136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Better return by buying $35 per day of BTC on Coinbase, everyday? on: January 07, 2014, 04:44:40 AM
It's called dollar cost averaging.  And yes it is better than calling the market wrong and worse than calling the market right.  

My preferred technique is to incrementally buy while the price is falling (although it is scary as shit especially when the price drop is accelerating).  But if you wait for the bottom you will miss it every time.

It also forces you to keep your fiat sitting on the exchange which comes with its own risks. 
8137  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Tech can replace most national voteing system on: January 07, 2014, 04:26:18 AM
Not a criticism just a discussion - how do you stop users from selling their vote?

Especially if they can now publicly prove they voted a certain way.
8138  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Vs. Paypal - and PayPal is getting sued. on: January 07, 2014, 04:04:38 AM
TL;DR summary:  

PayPal has been putting holds on my accounts and preventing me from accessing my own funds because I am selling miners.  I think Paypal is doing this because they regard bitcoin as competition.

I am suing Paypal.
8139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 02:51:41 AM
If you managed to get a retrial I don't think you could be convicted though.
8140  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Tech can replace most national voteing system on: January 07, 2014, 02:42:58 AM
Process of issuing private keys can be corrupted.
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