I am really curious how long you guys had to wait recently to get this EURO withdrawal on your bank account? I know that USD withdrawal can take several months, but I was hoping that EURO withdrawal would take a few weeks at maximum.
Almost a month now for SEPA. Extremely high volume of withdrawals have caused the queue to grow again. :-( |
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However the BTC didn't arrive until midnight which of course meant I couldn't do much with it until this morning.
I have had this problem – delayed BTC transfers due to empty hot wallet or other problems – on every exchange I have tried. No exceptions. Usually the hot wallet is empty, and a refill will fix it. Known cause of the invalid address error on MtGox. No exchange I ever tried gave me an honest error message indicating empty hot wallet either. |
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1 of 10 withdrawal attempts from MtGox bounces due to wrong information (wrong account number, wrong owner, wrong SWIFT address, etc), and all of the bounces have to be handled manually by their bank. This is what overloaded their old bank. They will have to work slowly through the queue to avoid too much work at once, but hopefully at a much faster pace.
This is exactly what I call a lame excuse. It sounds ridiculous for anyone who knows how a modern bank works. I can hardly imagine that you can “overwhelm” a bank with wire transfers. Actually, this is the way the banks make money. It is as mtgox would not let you trade because you overload their system with you trades. So you know how a modern Japanese bank works and do international wires? My bank is very modern – I have done all my banking online since 1997 – but all international wires still need manual intervention by the bank (ACK/NACK, sometimes routing). None are handled outside of normal office hours. If it bounces, they will call me if they can't find an obvious fix (they may call the receiving bank first). I would be interested to hear how this is done in Japan, since they, according to you, use a different system for international wires. Please tell us more! |
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regardless of the reasons, mtgox is not addressing the issue in the right way. they are just hiding the truth giving us lame excuses - this is very dissapointing.
I think the fact that JPY domestic transfers started appearing from a new bank (as reported by someone else in this thread) is a sign of progress. It means they actually have at least one new banking partner. I doubt the queue will get handled very quickly by the new bank. 1 of 10 withdrawal attempts from MtGox bounces due to wrong information (wrong account number, wrong owner, wrong SWIFT address, etc), and all of the bounces have to be handled manually by their bank. This is what overloaded their old bank. They will have to work slowly through the queue to avoid too much work at once, but hopefully at a much faster pace. I hope people will report here when their transfers from June start arriving. On the other hand the SEPA volume has exploded, and there are still withdrawals in queue as far back as August 31st. :-( |
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We will have to agree to disagree then. In my book, a $10M hole for a young and relatively small company as MtGox is a huge hole. Pretending its "peanuts" is being in denial of the facts. You repeat they have "millions on the order book", which obviously doesn't change the fact that a part of that money, credited to customers balances, is very probably not backed up by fiat in their banks, as they are obviously short of $10M. In fact, they pretty much admit it: Defendants are informed and believe that in March and April, 2013 MtGox customers, at the
suggestion of CoinLab, deposited $12,788,701.08 into one or more CoinLab bank accounts;
CoinLab then caused the amount of such funds to be credited to such customers' MtGox
accounts but CoinLab did not transfer the actual funds into the MtGox bank account. As a
result, such customers' MtGox account reflected a higher amount of currency funds available
to such customers than were actually in the MtGox bank account. In April, 2013, and upon
the demand of MtGox, CoinLab transferred a portion of those amounts, $ 7,473,490.29, to the
MtGox bank account, leaving a balance of approximately $ 5,315,210.79 to be transferred to
the MtGox account and which is being wrongfully held by CoinLab. So they they are admitting they have a big hole, and they do not say anywhere that they had to cover the hole with their own money (I would have stated that clearly in the official document, to wipe out doubt about insolvency - wouldn't have you?). The only hard cold fact they are stating is " such customers' MtGox account reflected a higher amount of currency funds available to such customers than were actually in the MtGox bank account". We have, from the same source, a number for their profit between April and August 20th. 8 million USD. + 12 million visible bids in the order book + whatever is in the withdrawal queue + funds not in the order book + profit since August 20th (about 500k by my estimates, counting the 2.5% mixed currency conversion fee as income). That is a lot of money. I can only see 1.5 million possibly missing from the total, and that can not possibly explain any current withdrawal problems. The numbers just don't add up to anything resembling a problem. They have a few hundred thousands of BTC as well. Plus, instead of being transparent and disclosing their balances as any serious company would do after the mainstream media started to write that Gox might be insolvent (Forbes, Wired....),
Show me one single other company which actually did that. Why don't you find that credible? At least it matches all curreently known facts perfectly well, which your explanation don't. Really? The above seems the most plausible answer to you after all the facts Gox have been hiding and that we now know?
Do you know any facts that I don't know? Finally, I'm amazed by the fact you keep repeating "they have $12M in their order book", like that is somewhat reassuring: - that money is just on Gox balances, it might very well not being backed by fiat in their back accounts (AS THEY STATED IN THE ANSWER TO COINLAB)
Then why do you think their profit is 0? They got most of the money from CoinLab in April. Why did they have any problems in the beginning of June then? Nobody, not even you, have presented any indications of MtGox beeing insolvent in the beginning of June. You have two weeks you can't explain, and even after those two weeks you are more than 10 million USD short of making MtGox insolvent with your calculations. Even if not everything is backed up with money in accounts, they can't be more than 2 million USD short, and there are at least 12 million USD in bids in their order book. They could keep up like nothing have happened and make that 2 million before Christmas. Why wouldn't they? Your explanation just don't make any sense. Why should risk their customers if they, by your calculations, didn't have to? [/li][li]even if that money is fully backed by existing funds in their bank, what do you want them to do with it? That is supposed to be their customers money, they are not supposed to operate/cover holes with that!![/li][/list]
Huh? They could let users withdraw the funds, if they didn't have banking problems. - I don't know if you have any experience in running a business, but it doesn't seem so: the fact is they only have $12M in the order book (again: customers money), and they admittedly have a hole of $10M.
No, they admittedly (and easily verifiable) have a profit of more than 8 million USD as well. Which, makes the hole only 2 million. Which makes their positive balance at least 10 million USD + money in withdrawal queue + customers money not in visible bids (most of my money are not in visible bids). So, the hole is almost equal to the full amount of fiat they have in their order book,
Obviously wrong to anyone who knows basic arithmetics. - Another fact is they allegedly had only an income of $8M during the 4 months of all time high usd volume EVER, and again the hole is $10M. Let me tell you that's a huge hit for a business, having a hole significantly (20%) bigger that the income you got in your best 4 months ever is a BIG problem for ANY company. When the alleged hole was "just" $5M, I thought it was bearable. Now that we discover the hole is $10M, I can't help being worried.
You mention the profit, but pretend it doesn't exist when talking about the hole. Why can't their profit be used to fill the hole? |
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How do you explain the timing? The withdrawal problems started around the 5th of June. The first Dwolla seizure happened on June 14th. You have nine days to explain.
Gox admits in their answer to Coinlab that money sent to Coinlab's bank accounts was credited to the balances of Gox customers, but the money was actually held by Coinlab. It seems pretty obvious to me that Gox has been facing financial challenges for a while, and when the two major holes caused by DHL and Dwolla converged with a declining volume at the beginning of June, the shit hit the fan. CoinLab doesn't explain it at all. They had millions on USD in profit, a fat order book and more than 5 million USD on the two bank accounts seized by the DHS. Finally, 5th to 14th June seems pretty close to me. Maybe the DHL action started a few days before it actually hits the news. Anyhow, it looks obvious to me there are diverse factors that are putting Gox under financial stress.
Dwolla were processing withdrawals until Friday 14th. Only bank wires were delayed. Five weeks for SEPA and more than a week for international wires. If the DHS action started earlier, it had no effect on Dwolla withdrawals which it was supposed to target, but on SEPA (delayed for as long as I can remember) and wires from their bank in Japan. Unlikely. DHS didn't even target MtGox. Only Mutum Sigillum LLC. Nope. Your explanation doens't work. |
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Note that the 5% is a bank fee.
...
Bank problems is a much more plausible explanation.
Firstly, we don't really know who collects the 5%, just that it is charged. We only know the information from MtGox, and other theories have no supporting evidence. This may well be a combination of both problems. There is no evidence of any USD withdrawals being processed after 12 June, so the "10 withdrawals a day" is likely false or actually applies to the 5% manual option. I suspect they have no working banking relationship right now for the old style ABA wire transfers, but are hoping one will materialize.
There is plenty of evidence on this forum. |
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Not true.
Bitstamp publish their total volume only. MtGox don't publish a total volume, but splits it into individual currencies. If I deposit EUR on Bitstamp and withdraw EUR from Bitstamp, it is still counted as USD volume. On MtGox it would be counted as EUR volume. To compare the two you need to add all currencies on MtGox. Many people don't know this.
Well this seems to be mostly a discussion about USD and I believe the USD volume on bitstamp is now larger. In any case, the ratio of quoted USD volume has been tilting strongly away from Gox, likely due to a loss of faith in their business practices caused by their opacity, and probable falsehoods. Bitstamp's USD volume is unknown. They only pubslish their total volume and label it as USD. Much of the volume on MtGox has shifted from USD to other currencies. A shift is not a reduction, and can only be explained by the USD withdrawal problems. Not loss of faith. Some days the JPY volume alone on MtGox is 50% of Bitstamp's total volume. Loss of faith in USD then, perhaps? |
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2+2 = 4
Gox is short of $10M and they are heavily delaying withdrawals. They make up stupid excuses such as "the old financial system cannot follow the thriving BTC economy" and "our huge volume is overwhelming the biggest bank is Japan". Still, there's no problem with the money coming in, only with the money going out.
How do you explain the timing? The withdrawal problems started around the 5th of June. The first Dwolla seizure happened on June 14th. You have nine days to explain. At the same time, Bitstamp is actually handling a higher volume, and processing withdrawals quickly and smoothly.
Smaller volume, actually. And much fewer customers. The most plausible scenario is simply that Gox is having liquidity problems.
What was the cause of their liquidity problems during the second week of June? Some of you repeat that Gox made aprox. $8M in trading fees since April this year, like that means $10M is nothing for them. That's absurd. The fact is their income before expenses during the period of higher usd volume EVER is significantly smaller that the hole created by Coinlab and DHS. $10M is not precisely peanuts for Gox, saying the contrary is ludicrous. Note that the two days of all time high volume happened precisely in August. If you have any experience managing a business you know this kind of hole means - at best - a huge headache for Gox.
Nothing of this, as far as it makes any sense at all, can explain the problems. The order book is 12 million USD deep in bids. Even if they didn't make any profit at all (8 million USD is from April to August 20th), they would have at least 2 million USD left of customer deposits to pay out of. Only a fraction of their deposits are visible in the order book. |
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Since Gox takes fees on both sides, 5 millions USD of fees are in btc, it doesn't really help them in their cash flow issues.
I've read somewhere Gox owns thousands of bitcoins through fees and re-investments, they cant sell their coins on their platform and hold worthless Gox USD. can they?
The default for new accounts is to take all fees from the fiat side, and has been so for a year or so. Many old cusumers (e.g. me) have switched on this option as well. Which means most of their profit from this year will be in fiat. The 2.5% currency conversion fee for mixed currency trades are in fiat as well. MtGox can not sell BTC on their own platform. I don't know if they are allowed to trade BTC on other exchanges. Their strategy so far has been to use BTC as BTC, e.g. when buying other companies (two so far). |
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Meanwhile, bitstamp volume continues to exceed Mt. Gox volume of actual trades by at least 50% each day.
Not true. Bitstamp publish their total volume only. MtGox don't publish a total volume, but splits it into individual currencies. If I deposit EUR on Bitstamp and withdraw EUR from Bitstamp, it is still counted as USD volume. On MtGox it would be counted as EUR volume. To compare the two you need to add all currencies on MtGox. Many people don't know this. |
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- Gox handled a very big volume BEFORE the Dwolla and Coinlab issues, and they handled that volume FINE
This is not true. The intenational wire delays started one or two weeks before the Dwolla problems. After the discontinuation of all other possible withdrawal methods in just two months. - Stating that Gox is "overwhelming" the biggest bank is Japan is laughable at best. That's BS.
At least it is the most plausible explanation so far, and the only I can think of which explains their problems from the beginning of June. The number of customers and trade volume grew tremendously during this time. Last number I heard was 600k verified customers. In the beginning of this year there were much less than 100k. - Gox needed to increase their operational costs during the bubble, precisely to be able to handle the customers and volume growth. We do not know how rationally that growth was managed.
We know that. More staff on AML verification and support. I think they are 14 now. - Gox invested in new servers, trading engine, etc. shortly before the Dwolla and Coinlab issues
A new server cost thousands at most. Not millions. Mark already run a large business renting out servers (Tibanne). - Being scrutinized by US regulators is quite a stress, which certainly leads to more expenses: expensive lawyers, licenses, etc. We can safely assume they are spending a lot to pull their shit together.
Still doesn't explain the problems starting in the beginning of June. The licence they applied for costs 200k USD. The already spoke to the US regulators (the reason for discontinuation of redeemable codes, one of the popular withdrawal methods), and were preparing for further licensing when DHS struck out of the blue. We are not talking millions here either. - Gox is offering an "emergency" withdrawal option that goes with a 5% fee. Surprise! There is no "overwhelming" if you choose that option.
Note that the 5% is a bank fee. Finally, the hard cold fact is Gox is having tremendous issues with withdrawals (delays and more delays), and as per Occam's Razor, the easiest answer is they have liquidity problems.
Yes, and easy conclusions are often wrong. The math and timing just don't add up. Bank problems is a much more plausible explanation. Saying stupid things like "the old financial system is having problems to follow the thriving BTC economy" and such is an insult to the intelligence of their customers. They probably offer the "5% emergency withdrawal" so they can make as much money as possible with such a leonine fee, to eventually cover the holes left by the US DHS and Coinlab.
So you think MtGox is 5% in minus, and the bank doesn't take any fee at all? No, this does not sound anything near a plausible explanation to me. Why is the 5% option very limited then, and not offered by default to everyone? And why only for international wire? A nice collection of speculations, but few are plausible and they certainly don't fit your conclusion. You have to start looking earlier than the Dwolla seizures. It is very obvious they were limited by their bank since June 5th, at least. |
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This is interesting. I agree it is most consistent with Gox not having enough USD. It costs about 3% to convert to USD at retail in Japan.
The fee is 5% plus some, so it appears there is also an international wire transfer involved, with the various fees along the way.
After their USD losses perhaps they are running a fractional reserve in USD. The real solution here would be for them to actually explain what is going on.
I think it is public knowledge that $5 million was confiscated from Mt.Gox customer funds. Considering that it is a Japanese company that does not likely have such a sum of their own, excess funds, in foreign currency, this resulted in a deficit and fractional reserve in customers' accounts. It is almost certainly the root cause of this bank run. Could you explain where MtGox's 10 million USD profit so far this year has gone, or are you only looking at one side of the equation? Not to mention there are > 12 million USD worth of bids in the order book. 5 million doesn't explain anything. You need at least 20 million USD to explain this as a lack of funds. |
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Are there delays for EUR withdraws?
I am waiting since 5 weeks now for my SEPA withdrawal. It's the first withdrawal I did in the last 6 month. There is no other withdrawal in my queue. Five weeks? Sure it was SEPA? Submitted at what date? Is it still in confirmed state, btw? |
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Question: don't Bitpay and similar company's rely on MtGox in order to pay out customers? Howcome they're still up and running then?
Do you think MtGox's biggest clients are waiting 2 or 3 months for their money? Their biggest clients have probably set up domestic bank accounts in Japan a long time ago for quick deposit and withdrawal. |
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Are there delays for EUR withdraws?
I've been waiting 3 weeks for my 631 EUR to arrive to my account and still counting. So yes, there are delays for EUR, too. Latest information: The volume of SEPA withdrawals in the end of August and beginning of September was huge. Many SEPA withdrawals ordered during the weekend between August and September are still in confirmed state. :-( |
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4.Bank has provided an option for speed processing so if you urgently need money within 7 business days we can sent the fund that you requested manually. This method is really limited and out of negotiated price contract with the bank, the bank fee is high 5% because we have to convert JPY into an other currency (That we cannot choose, the currency depends on your country and only one currency is possible by country) then it takes 5 business days to get the money.
IMO, this statement cements the theory that they don't have the USD holdings to cover withdrawals. If it's an expediency fee, then why do they state it's for currency exchange? There is no end to the conspiracy theories in here. JPY is a convertible currency. MtGox are free to choose what currency they want to store their funds in. I assume it is is most practical to use JPY in Japan. Those terms are terrible, and hopefully only for express withdrawal. It should be easy enough to send JPY everywhere as well. My bank will accept any currency and convert upon reception. |
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2013-09-05: 10³ EUR; Status: confirmed; Type: SEPA withdrawal
2013-09-10: 10³ EUR; Status: confirmed; Type: SEPA withdrawal
I'd love to conduct further business with Mt.Gox, but it is difficult,
if money does not flow. Under these circumstances, I have trouble
investing more.
It takes minimum 20 business days between each processed withdrawal. A problem much discussed in this thread. It is due to a very low daily limit in their bank in Poland. |
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You are right. The only reason I can see for people to stick with them is to believe / pray that they can keep this 10$ advantage.
But the exchange volume inversion from 80% mtgox to a lead of the other exchanges proves that most people are switching
I withdraw fiat from MtGox and keep the advantage. It works fine, just takes two or three weeks of waiting. MtGox still has an undisputable lead if you count total BTC volume on all the exchanges. A lot of the volume on MtGox has shifted from USD to EUR and JPY. On some other exchanges all the volume is counted as USD, no matter what currency the fiat is deposited or withdrawn in, which makes one big misleading number instead of many real numbers. |
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There is no fundamental reason to stick with mtgox and the price is inflated due to the default risk
The reason why the price is inflated can be debated. Panic, desperation and bad advice are probably the main causes. I think the price is inflated because many people buy BTC on MtGox, like you suggest. I do it the opposite way. Sell BTC on MtGox and withdraw fiat, to make some on arbitrage. Much more profitable. Default seems like a less probable outcome every day. A steadily increasing share of trades are cross currency trades, of which MtGox makes 2.5% in addition to the normal fees. This makes MtGox very profitable even at low volume. |
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