They do, but due to the time it takes (1 business day for withdrawal from MtGox + 4 days for deposit to Bitstamp/BTC-E/whatever) it takes a while, and there is some risk involved.  You lose a week of trading on MtGox, which can be just as profitable.  I assume this is the reason why JPY volume at MtGox stayed fairly low until the difference passed 10%.  From that time it takes about a week until the money withdrawn are deposited on Bitstamp.  And don't forget that Bitstamp only allows a small amount for first time deposit.  I guess most Japanese haven't bothered to send their money to a foreign exchange before, so that's another clamp.  The difference will stay high for at least one more week.  The supply of stupid people selling at a loss is endless.

If they wanted to do arbitrage, they would be selling on MtGox, not buying. 

Much of the volume is from bots, yes.  There is no signs of whales exploiting the spread.  They would have to risk a lot of money on an exchange operating on borrowed time, and I don't think anyone would risk a "whale" amount of money on Bitstamp after what happened to bitcoin24.  But there are many individuals making a fair amount on four digit EUR amounts.  Including some people trolling here.

Do you have proof of this, or are you making up even more bs?

People are withdrawing all kinds of amounts.  1000 EUR makes no whale.

People wouldn't lose money on the spread if they weren't listening to your FUD.  This is like watching a zombie movie.  Zombies trying to infect stupid people to make more zombies.  I make money on the spread.  So do many other posters in this thread, but not all of us are doing out best to escalate it.  To me what's best for Bitcoin comes before what's best for my own wallet.

Please share the data you have on when the CoinLab suit started.  

MtGox has well over 50% of the market and shows no signs of dying.  It is the only exchange featuring proper multi-currency trading, it has the most secure and mature API, has the deepest books and is the most trusted of all exchanges.  MtGox has survived worse problems in the past, and will come out stronger.

Most EUR exchanges, e.g. bitcoin.de and Bitcurex, are somewhere between MtGox and Bitstamp now.  Back up after being on Bitstamp level for a while.  Could be due to the difficulties many have when trying to deposit money at Bitstamp after the flagging of their account.

No, the account has to be in your own name.  Your cousin could open a MtGox account, and you can transfer BTC to him for him to sell and withdraw.

Bitcoin exchanges are not traditional markets.  Traditional markets for currency exchange is banks, and only open during the banks opening hours.  There are plenty long arbitrage possibilities in Bitcoin.  Between exchanges, and even local to multi-currency exchanges.  You do not have to go far from the banks to find arbitrage opportunities which are more risky to exploit.  E.g. my stock example.

I would like to point to this here as well.  Do you really believe Bitcoin exchanges are even remotely close to banks in terms of liquidity?

This is funny, because here you claim it is about lack of trust, not low liquidity.  You even moved the Coinlab rectangle two weeks to the right because the facts didn't fit your theory.

Now, here you have a point.  Due to one of the easiest arbitrage exchanges for buying right now are operating in obvious violation of the law, I don't want to risk much money there.  Neither does anyone else, which you can easily see from the depth of their order book.  Keeping millions of dollars there (unless you mean Zimbabwe dollars) is completely out of the question.  And they don't allow me credit, like the markets you are comparing with do.  This of course limits my own arbitrage possibilities.

Eh?  No.  You are ignoring a large number of facts here.  How much experience do you have with real life arbitrage trading?  Any at all?  Read a little about it on the internet, perhaps?  Not quite understanding all the basics?

Taking out a 0.1% arbitrage possibility in the Bitcoin markets will make you lose money.  Come back when you can explain why.  People have no problems cashing out six figures of USD or EUR from MtGox, and JPY withdrawal has never been limited.  I guess most of them will be careful of placing a six digit amount of USD on an exchange operating on borrowed time to take out a limited amount of arbitrage.

So how do you explain the identical trades in opposite direction on MtGox and Bitstamp at exactly 8% price difference for days?
Does writing two arbitrage bots operating in several currencies count as a fraction of knowledge?   Their problem is that they keep running out of fiat on one side, which takes time to move.  Time means the market isn't entirely liquid.  This won't change until all exchanges work as banks as well, with the possibility to borrow fiat and BTC.  There is a fine balance to maximize the profit without running out of funds.  (Which they do all the time – moving funds fast enough is impossible when it has to happen through banks and the markets are open 24/7.)  Arbitrage opportunities can exist in other markets as well, for a relatively long time, when the market isn't entirely liquid.  E.g between stocks in the same company on different exchanges operating in different currencies when currency rates fluctuate.

You wouldn't waste the opportunity on 10% when 20% is in sight, would you?  Arbitrage bots have a trigger point.  The difference between Bitstamp and MtGox was exactly 8% or below for days, and it seems a higher difference triggered a bot to trade on both exchanges.  The panicing hoardes probably exceeded the financial capacity of this bot, and it ran out of funds, which made the max 8% difference end abruptly.  Expect it's trigger point to be raised when it is funded again.  I'm sure the bot could make profit on 5% or 3% as well, but it would run out of funds faster then and miss better opportunities later.

There is an idiot born every minute, and all of them seems to be busy giving their money to arbitrageurs now.  The amount of money given away is so high, not many people have the capital needed to hold the spread stable.  As more people get into the game, the difference will go down and become more variable with highs during weekends (no new money getting in or out of exchanges, but BTC may move).

Very easy.  MtGox has one orderbook.  (With some currency conversion quirks which can be confusing when you try to understand them, but there is really no need since it is transparent to the users.)  All BTC offered in all currencies are available in all other currencies as well.  The JPY order book is just as deep as the other order books.

Correct, and not everyone have an EUR account in the SEPA.  Not everyone have a bank account at all.  Closing of AurumExchange and OKPay made withdrawal of fiat impossible for many people until they got themselves a bank account.  Nevertheless your claim was bombastic in capital letters, as if it applies to everyone:


No, what you claim are FACTs are not even remotely close to facts.  Perhaps a FACT is different from a fact?  A FACT is just a kind of almost fact which could be true if you bend it and add a few ifs?

For certain values of need, perhaps.  I doubt it applies to many people.  Many people listen to your FUD, panics and leave at a loss.  I feel sorry for them, but it is their choice.

Or anyone in Japan or most people in Europe, or anyone trusted who is willing to pay for an emergency manual withdrawal, or...  Your small percentage is getting quite large.  20% of the volume on MtGox yesterday was either JPY or EUR.  Yes, there have been reports on EUR withdrawals waiting long, but most people report quick service.  Could be worth a talk to Support if it takes too long.  Some banks have different BIC for SEPA and SWIFT, and usually the code used for SWIFT is the one most visible.  Apparently MtGox have some problems in that regard.

YOU did.  Stating is as a FACT in capital letters:


Please tell me where I'm wrong.  I'll be happy to correct my statements if they are wrong.  There are a lot of comments and threads here on bitcointroll where people are claiming they have received their fiat withdrawals.  Even today.  Why do you ignore them?  Yes, there are a few large pink noisy elephants in the room (not many), but there are a lot of happy flies as well who make a lot less noise.  Why ignore the happy flies?  People have trolled about MtGox since  2010 when their PayPal account was closed.  I did it myself back then.  Still MtGox is up and running as the most liquid, highest volume exchange with the deepest order books.  I think most of their customers have got used to the FUD here on bitcointroll.  MtGox is solid as a rock.  Built to withstand Japanese earthquakes.

Yes, you have missed it.  JPY is a convertible currency.  Any other convertible currency, e.g. EUR or USD, will do.

Ditto.  You remind me of my five year old when you claim that withdrawing fiat is impossible, and you haven't even tried many of the methods which everyone who have claims are working and fast.  Denying obvious facts, sticking to the methods which you know don't work, arguing that people should take a loss instead of a good arbitrage.  Pathetic.

Obvius BS.  There is no such thing as an IBAN transfer.

What you call a fact is not.  Many people here have gotten fiat money out from MtGox.  JPY transfers arrive next day.  No reports claim otherwise, unless you spell your name wrong.  You and some people here spreading FUD for your own profit.  Your FUD campaign is what it is, and not even remotely related to fact.
They are quite stupid, panicing or falling for your FUD campaign.  First of all it is quite easy to sell at MtGox prices elsewhere.  I've always done that to avoid withdrawal fees.  There is no need to sell at a loss.  Secondly it is possible to get fiat out of MtGox.  See multiple confirmations in this thread.
Delayed is quite different from impossible.

Common error to believe that 99% agrees with oneself.  If you count carefully in this thread, you will notice that less than 99% of posters have this problem.  And people who don't have this problem are unlikely to come here and complain in the first place.  And you only prove my point again.  The cause of the discrepancy is the problem of moving fiat reducing arbitrage possibilities, not lack of trust (as shown by every other metric).

We can probably discuss this forever, but your graph still hides a lot of facts.  E.g. everything before April.  The fact that BTC-E followed nicely before and after the first period in May, but went below both Bitstamp and MtGox during the first period of divergence in May.  Does that mean BTC-E is the most trusted of those three?  The CoinLab suit started almost two weeks before your rectangle naming it, and instead your rectangle conveniently includes the announcement of new verification requirements and the end of OKpay (fiat withdrawal difficulties).  To name a few examples.