Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

How all of a sudden everyone wants to help out Ukraine is a big food for thought for me.

It's the influence of the mass media effect. The media appear to abuse the unfortunate events and blame Putin due to his inhuman response to Ukraine. They don't want critical thinkers; remember: They step on your deep human feelings. Same happened with Covid news and everything that has to do with the climate change.

I do consider Putin's actions inhuman, but that doesn't mean I'll support Ukraine. The media, though, accomplish their goals every day. These are the worst days to hang out on social media; it's propaganda at its finest.

Seems to me we are being forced into accepting: A) WW3 or B) A massive global recession or C) Both.

If Putin's armies are this weak, demoralised, don't know what they are doing and why and shabby then why do we need to even supply Ukraine with a constant stream of weapons?

Nothing adds up. Utter propaganda tripe we are being fed.

A few months ago you were a disgusting human being for even doubting to take a "vaccine" for a virus many of us got regardless. Now you are disgusting if you don't think Russians deserve to live in isolation from western media and western products. The virus is gone, come out and protest everyone against Putin, follow along now. WTF?!

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[somac.]

<snip>

I recommend you watch the Adam Curtis documentary Century of the Self. It goes into this kind of stuff, it's on you tube, 4 parts, 1hour each.

[psycodad]

<snip>


BTW if you want to chainsaw these fuckers from your network their IP addresses are here.

https://lite.ip2location.com/russian-federation-ip-address-ranges

They even have downloads in iptables or cisco ACL formats. Or just route their traffic to 127.0.0.1

I did just that when it all started, until I noticed I can't login or pay on Aliexpress anymore (though browsing through the catalogue just works fine)..
I guess things are already more intertwined than we thought.

[OutOfMemory]

<snip>

"Guns don't kill people. People kill people."

Somebody whose name i forgot

Generally keeping myself out of this war mess, while not trying to justify Russia's bullshit they pull off, a lot of what PrivacyG said resonates with me.

Anyway, let me correct above quote, it is from Stan Smith, famous CIA agent and actually goes like:

"Guns don't kill people, guns defend people from other people with smaller guns."

Not making fun of the misery of war here, but given that we are in a dead-end that seemingly can only be ended in MAD or Putin getting a "friendly" helping hand from fellow Russians in "resigning" I think we should laugh as long as we still can. (As some commenter pointed out on CNN, Putin has no reverse gear, I don't see any other alternative to these two outcomes).

Also the whole fun watching corn price go up or down is gone now. When it goes up, I feel guilty because it possibly goes up because or despite people dying. If it goes down I feel ashamed that I think that is a problem while people die.

Fuck Putin for taking the fun out of wall observing.

+1WOsMerit if i didn't merit your post already.

True. But there is never a single person to blame for anything in this world.
Satoshi Nakamoto wouldn't have brought Bitcoin to life alone, talking of responsability.
When it looks simple, it has a complex background more often than not.

<snip>

I recommend you watch the Adam Curtis documentary Century of the Self. It goes into this kind of stuff, it's on you tube, 4 parts, 1hour each.

The title itself is pretty revealing. Thanks for sharing.

[julian071]

snip

To have a chance to fully understand all this, you have to go way back, to the times around WW1.
You will probably see why it's best to not take any sides.
Narratives are stronger than facts (did i say that before?)
We may evolve beyond this, i'd suggest after some thousand years, at best.
Our brains are too small to withstand narratives, which make us stop thinking, or think less.
The good news: We have evolved so far that we are able to identify problems. Now we have to take the bigger step to be able to solve them, without causing more problems.
Maybe the 90% of our brain potential most of us don't use (according to Albert Einstein) would come in handy...

It's bigger then that. Stories are no less important then facts. Every single thing that is man-made started as a story. And identity is based on stories, some of those stories we call 'history'. Much of what is going on in the world today revolves around identity, just look for it in the speeches of politicians from all walks of life.

One of those (hi)stories is the reason why western European countries are so eager to help Ukraine. Our stories here on the European continent are intimately intertwined. And we recognize ourselves in them. Humans are more inclined to help those whose identities resemble their own.

Century of the Self is must-see stuff!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[machasm]

snip

We (the west) are no better than the east in this regard.
Censorship and propaganda becomes the reality in the end burying the real truth.
Just look at censorship in the act of sedition during ww1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedition_Act_of_1918

[BlackHatCoiner]

During times like these, when people's currency is devalued to nothing and hear/read nonsensical stuff such as "SWIFT is banning Russia", they start wondering what's money after all: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30469383

Sometimes what's good and what's not makes a splash. You can never stop being bullish with Bitcoin.

[d_eddie]

Why use EMA, then?

I have been using EMA forever and works good for me and is also a good support/resistance level for the BTC in the past.

Explain "works good for me". Does it mean it's preventing you from bogus forecasts?

[somac.]

During times like these, when people's currency is devalued to nothing and hear/read nonsensical stuff such as "SWIFT is banning Russia", they start wondering what's money after all: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30469383

Sometimes what's good and what's not makes a splash. You can never stop being bullish with Bitcoin.

Ah, a fellow hacker news reader one of my favorite sites. In that link user lxgr knows exactly how it all works, the so called monetary plumbing is a very interesting topic and when you study it you realize how needed bitcoin actually is.

[d_eddie]

Bitcoin is now the only global payment system that won’t discriminate against anyone, regardless of their race, nationality, religion, politics, or actions.

This is going to become incredibly important in the coming decades.”

Apompliano

I gave you my last merit as an encouragement.
And I'll add a small piece of advice: if it's a tweet, paste a link too 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

I think we may see a short term dip to the low 30Ks or even lower in the worst case scenario.

This week I think will be key with oil and gas prices going mental the central banks will have to react and I think most likely indicate that interest rate hikes are completely off the table.
Inflation is going to run rampant regardless of interest rate hikes anyway.

Whether governments will indicate that net zero green policies are out of the window for now I'm not sure, but probably not.

Personally I don't see how EVs will be viable if gas prices continue to go crazy (gas is used for much of electricity generation in Europe). Running them will cost as much as filling up with petrol soon and they cost far more to buy, so what is the point?

Once things settle down (and I think they probably will) towards the end of the year we could see major lift in the economies and a new ATH for BTC.

But for the moment I think it will be doom and gloom.

[friends1980]

Bitcoin is now the only global payment system that won’t discriminate against anyone, regardless of their race, nationality, religion, politics, or actions.

This is going to become incredibly important in the coming decades.”

Apompliano

I gave you my last merit as an encouragement.
And I'll add a small piece of advice: if it's a tweet, paste a link too 

Another piece of advice @OP: don't post the same quote all over the boards. It might get you banned from SWIFT this forum.

[machasm]

Personally I don't see how EVs will be viable if gas prices continue to go crazy (gas is used for much of electricity generation in Europe). Running them will cost as much as filling up with petrol soon and they cost far more to buy, so what is the point?

Once things settle down (and I think they probably will) towards the end of the year we could see major lift in the economies and a new ATH for BTC.

Maybe it will accelerate the use of renewables??
Not so sure about things settling down either?
Remember when the world war 1 started? Many thought that it would be all over by Christmas 1914!

edit: fixed date!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[PrivacyG]

I am glad to see more members here feeling the same way I do.  For one moment, I had the feeling I was the only one.

It sucks that we are now living in a world in which your opinion is only listened to by others if it begins with the negation of you thinking different than what the mainstream media says.  My critical thinking about the war always has to begin with 'I am NOT supporting Putin nor am I supporting Ukraine'.  Whenever I do not do this, my opinion is immediately discarded.

And yes, all the darn fun watching charts is now gone.  There is some kind of guilt in the atmosphere whenever an asset you are watching goes a specific direction.  You just know this is not about Bitcoin getting us rich anymore, it is not about its success.  Now it is about the average human slowly going broke, about us possibly getting into the next World War and about the economy getting brutally screwed all around the world.

I hope I sent out merits to all of you who offered a feedback and have not missed anyone.  Feels good when you know others are on the same page with you.  Otherwise it felt like I was the one going nuts.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[lightfoot]

They are blaming Russia for censoring the Western news and media, but Europe was first in this war with this kind of censorship by removing Russian TV channels, news websites et cetera.  I literally see the news that Russia Today is banned all over Europe and few hours later they call out Russia for censoring American or Western newsletters and channels.  They call one censorship, and the other one a sanction.  The argument about Putin being a pedophile exists on both sides.  The propaganda clearly exists in both Western and Russian state media, each having their own purposes to fulfill.  I have seen them mentioning how under 100 Ukrainian soldiers have died at the time while the Ukrainian forces have killed over 4,000 Russian soldiers which is just so unrealistic.

Interesting. Can you cite some of the sources for your post here? I think this is a very important post....

I will add the virus situation in the middle of all of this.  Two weeks ago we were fearing a virus nobody seems to care about anymore.  Protests are now allowed, gatherings of soldiers are just fine, it is like there is no virus to fear anymore.  I have even heard multiple times that the pandemic has been over since the middle of March.  Wait, what?!  What is going on really?  How is it over when only two weeks ago everyone seemed to still fear a Covid infection?  When did we get over a pandemic?!

Oh COViD is still rocking along, US is running at about 1500 dead a day/10k a week dead. However since death is easy to prevent it's not a big deal.

But yeah, when I hear "7,000 Russian troops died last week" it's like "yawn, pikers."

[OutOfMemory]

snip

To have a chance to fully understand all this, you have to go way back, to the times around WW1.
You will probably see why it's best to not take any sides.
Narratives are stronger than facts (did i say that before?)
We may evolve beyond this, i'd suggest after some thousand years, at best.
Our brains are too small to withstand narratives, which make us stop thinking, or think less.
The good news: We have evolved so far that we are able to identify problems. Now we have to take the bigger step to be able to solve them, without causing more problems.
Maybe the 90% of our brain potential most of us don't use (according to Albert Einstein) would come in handy...

It's bigger then that. Stories are no less important then facts. Every single thing that is man-made started as a story. And identity is based on stories, some of those stories we call 'history'. Much of what is going on in the world today revolves around identity, just look for it in the speeches of politicians from all walks of life.

One of those (hi)stories is the reason why western European countries are so eager to help Ukraine. Our stories here on the European continent are intimately intertwined. And we recognize ourselves in them. Humans are more inclined to help those whose identities resemble their own.

Century of the Self is must-see stuff!!

Correct. We are even story-driven lifeforms. We tell stories all the time, even to ourselves: In our minds, even when we sleep.
Everybody having a little bit of Meditation experience knows that the mind constantly chatters. A narrative species.

I think we may see a short term dip to the low 30Ks or even lower in the worst case scenario.

This week I think will be key with oil and gas prices going mental the central banks will have to react and I think most likely indicate that interest rate hikes are completely off the table.
Inflation is going to run rampant regardless of interest rate hikes anyway.

Whether governments will indicate that net zero green policies are out of the window for now I'm not sure, but probably not.

Personally I don't see how EVs will be viable if gas prices continue to go crazy (gas is used for much of electricity generation in Europe). Running them will cost as much as filling up with petrol soon and they cost far more to buy, so what is the point?

Once things settle down (and I think they probably will) towards the end of the year we could see major lift in the economies and a new ATH for BTC.

But for the moment I think it will be doom and gloom.

This would make the mid term prediction of $32k bottom and subsequent bull market resume true.
At the other hand, it would form a double bottom, which is also bullish, afair. But i stopped believing in patterns too much anyway.
1BTC = 1BTC

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation