Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Black Arrow]

There may be large players accumulating bitcoin, but large money wise investors still have trust issues depositing large sums of money into exchanges, and their demand will not be expressed on the main exchanges.

I may be misinterpreting what you're saying, but I've seen this idea that major trades that occur off-exchange, such as auction sales of the Silk Road coins don't materially affect the price on the exchanges, but I disagree. There's some friction involved with moving large sums of money, so arbitrage isn't very efficient with bitcoin, but it's still one big market controlled by the laws of supply and demand. Major traders need to exchange their coins somewhere and in the absence of trades that occur off-exchange they would have had to accumulate or sell coins on an exchange. So off-exchange trading still has an effect on the exchange market by virtue of eliminating some trades that would otherwise have occurred on the exchanges. Also, some smaller investors, who would normally trade on exchanges, might form a pool to participate in an off-exchange purchase for the purpose of trying to sell the coins at a higher price on an exchange.

[chessnut]

Serious question, but what price point would you consider your current wave count invalid and reassess it?

I think a move to mid $100's is possibly (imho unlikely) but wouldn't that be a terrifying capitulation point for all those - like me - that think the bear market may finally be over!?

I think I mentioned that 320-340 was invalidation territory. Needless to say, Im not worried about that right now. It seems likely to me that we have been given the evidence we need that the bear trend is set to rapidly continue.

This is the evil work of Benjamin the whale he tweeted last night at 1670, the very top "the fun has just begun" - I have warned that my count was aligned with his plans to "gox" the market not long ago. I think it is the plan of the elite that there is a raid across exchanges, driving the price to a final and brief low of $100, possibly less.

Yes, a move to $100 would surely be intimidating to the most stubborn believers, although I firmly believe this is where the limits of the bear market will be reached.

Black Arrow,
I believe that bitcoin will undergo mass adoption and grow greatly, and I believe in fundamental factors as described will come into play eventually, but just weeks ago the price dropped 50% within days to $150. Right now the price is weak. What is your evidence that the situation has changed? bitcoin is evidently vulnerable, and so long as the situation doesn't change in the next month, I believe that EW theory is a great guide for us to pick the bottom with.

Please though, this is not a FA thread. lets keep it clean.

[BitCoinNutJob]

Zero, $100, current price is all the same to me. Not worth selling at these prices, i'll be back to trade when we in the thousands.  Seriously though we could just as easy go sideways for 6 months from here, can 1 whale really push a market down, only if the market wants to go down will the whale do that.

[chessnut]

Zero, $100, current price is all the same to me. Not worth selling at these prices, i'll be back to trade when we in the thousands.  Seriously though we could just as easy go sideways for 6 months from here, can 1 whale really push a market down, only if the market wants to go down will the whale do that.

Very sensible   this is good decisive trading. ^^ (but its not EW analysis  )

[BitCoinNutJob]

Zero, $100, current price is all the same to me. Not worth selling at these prices, i'll be back to trade when we in the thousands.  Seriously though we could just as easy go sideways for 6 months from here, can 1 whale really push a market down, only if the market wants to go down will the whale do that.

Very sensible   this is good decisive trading. ^^ (but its not EW analysis  )

It is very sensible (mathmatically) and i advise anyone who isnt an expert trader to do the same. No point selling out to rebuy lower at this price, work on other stuff and buy more if gets lower.  If we were @ $600 or something selling some as a hedge to rebuy lower might make sense.

So anyone reading this, ask yourself, are you an expert trader? if the answer is no buy and hold, or just dont invest in btc at all.

The thread has been handy though i have learnt some stuff, its pretty cool, thanks  




 

[chessnut]

https://www.tradingview.com/v/f52qxWKm/

Todays forecast. I feel this one is worth posting although it is a shorter time frame than I like to post here.

[karol]

Hi Chessnut how YOu predict timeframe? How long it will take to reach target in Your opinion?

[chessnut]

Hi Chessnut how YOu predict timeframe? How long it will take to reach target in Your opinion?

Should be around about 8 hrs

..... lol yeah should be more than 8hrs, could be up to double that. time is hard to say.

[chessnut]

https://www.tradingview.com/v/f52qxWKm/

Todays forecast. I feel this one is worth posting although it is a shorter time frame than I like to post here.

- minimum target is 1570

[slowmo1983]

hello chessnut, is your forecast still valid?

[L0uis]

Seems the already small bullish wave is losing momentum.

[chessnut]

hello chessnut, is your forecast still valid?

Seems the already small bullish wave is losing momentum.

Its on the edge but not yet invalidated.

[chessnut]

hello chessnut, is your forecast still valid?

Seems the already small bullish wave is losing momentum.

Its on the edge but not yet invalidated.

ok seems toast now

[Fabrizio89]

Got any feedback for me? https://www.tradingview.com/v/xWtguD0A/

[Morecoin Freeman]

hello chessnut, is your forecast still valid?

Seems the already small bullish wave is losing momentum.

Its on the edge but not yet invalidated.

ok seems toast now

I do not agree at all. We will go to $300 soon.

[fonzie]

hello chessnut, is your forecast still valid?

Seems the already small bullish wave is losing momentum.

Its on the edge but not yet invalidated.

ok seems toast now

I do not agree at all. We will go to $300 soon.

Would you mind posting your chart analysis that supports your emotionally strong opinion? Thanks!

[dannyspk]

I think it may have been invalidated.. reaching 1570 would be really unlikely in these conditions.

[madmat]

Short term view was completely wrong.

[L0uis]

Short term view was completely wrong.

And?

[madmat]

Short term view was completely wrong.

And?

And that's all. The ones who followed his prediction have lost some money. Nothing more. I follow this thread because chessnut is often right, this time he was wrong.