Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

Don't forget that people also lose when you win. Because they don't have stop loss, because they don't understand you, because they trade too late after you post, because, they don't take the profit on time and so on.

For the moment, i am happy with my tradings, i made +25% in 15 days thanks to you. Waiting to sell at 3000 before tipping you.

I can only try my best. I assume people have a choice to follow what I do and I do not make false promises. As long as people can see my statistical advantage, losing here is a good environment to learn how to become a good trader.

ps always grateful for tips. only if you make a nice profit though! cheers.

[karol]

I find out that this laverage is more future option than it is on bfx, You open contracts weekly, monthly etc and it will be closed automaticy on Friday yes? So i can't open Today and close it with profit tomorrow as it is on bfx?

You can open a biweekly, monthly and quarterly position without having to worry about closing out on a friday. any time you open a monthly position it will only be automatically closed on friday one month from that time. trading futures contracts versus real bitcoin has no real advantages or imo no disadvantages.

So Am i correct I can't close it manually to take profit?
So it don't suit to short scalps. For example I open position one day for 390 - one day after there is 450 but it colapse to 370 in friday so Am in lose. If i could close it manually I probably will take profit at 450:)

[chessnut]

So Am i correct I can't close it manually to take profit?
So it don't suit to short scalps. For example I open position one day for 390 - one day after there is 450 but it colapse to 370 in friday so Am in lose. If i could close it manually I probably will take profit at 450:)

You can close a futures contract at any time at the futures market price. It follows the spot market quite closely and has good liquidity most of the time.

[Globb0]

No... I like that you are honest about losses as well as gains.

Half the problem I have learned here in BCF is people who cover up half the story. Like fruit machine gamblers who visibly win £100 when they invisibly pumped in £200

I am a Project manager by trade and I am struggling to overcome the risk level to start realy trading. I am possibly too sensible. 

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Keep up the good work chessnut, following your analysis  

[watuba]

after two losing trades I am timid but this count has surprising revealed its self to me and happily fits a valid and plausible corrective count, I have the confidence to trade it myself. This is NOT impulsive to the downside, this is not how wave V should start. with the hourly macd turning up, this could be the bottom we are looking for. the Risk/reward is great  placing stoploss under local lows. please trade with good risk management here this market is obviously volatile.

What are your profit targets?

[chessnut]

What are your profit targets?

As we now have a clear cut termination count of an abc (not impulsive!), we can expect either a v,III, or B to follow. B does not fit into the bigger picture, but is the least we can expect and would likely retrace 50%, 2630, or least probable 2570. v and III do potentially fit into the bigger picture. III would be phenominal, hold tight, and v would take us to 3000 yuan.

[watuba]

What are your profit targets?

As we now have a clear cut termination count of an abc (not impulsive!), we can expect either a v,III, or B to follow. B does not fit into the bigger picture, but is the least we can expect and would likely retrace 50%, 2630, or least probable 2570. v and III do potentially fit into the bigger picture. III would be phenominal, hold tight, and v would take us to 3000 yuan.

Sounds like not the kind of long position I can take right before I go to bed.  It's too bad because if you're right the average return is pretty high

[chessnut]

What are your profit targets?

As we now have a clear cut termination count of an abc (not impulsive!), we can expect either a v,III, or B to follow. B does not fit into the bigger picture, but is the least we can expect and would likely retrace 50%, 2630, or least probable 2570. v and III do potentially fit into the bigger picture. III would be phenominal, hold tight, and v would take us to 3000 yuan.

Sounds like not the kind of long position I can take right before I go to bed.  It's too bad because if you're right the average return is pretty high

your position is always more secure when you are awake, although this has turned into a larger scale trade and if not rally will probably just range for days. a stoploss at 2400 is a good level for risk concerned and we should not return there if this is III or v.

[podyx]

What are your profit targets?

As we now have a clear cut termination count of an abc (not impulsive!), we can expect either a v,III, or B to follow. B does not fit into the bigger picture, but is the least we can expect and would likely retrace 50%, 2630, or least probable 2570. v and III do potentially fit into the bigger picture. III would be phenominal, hold tight, and v would take us to 3000 yuan.

Sounds like not the kind of long position I can take right before I go to bed.  It's too bad because if you're right the average return is pretty high

your position is always more secure when you are awake, although this has turned into a larger scale trade and if not rally will probably just range for days. a stoploss at 2400 is a good level for risk concerned and we should not return there if this is III or v.

Looks like we returned to 2400

[btcney]

Did you get margin called chessnut?

[chessnut]

Did you get margin called chessnut?

No I never risk margin call an 2400 was respected on OKcoin, not on huobi.

Looks like we returned to 2400

Its terrible luck.... the count is strong on the higher order but I dont know what to think of this. its arguing with the hourly macd upwards.

[btcney]

Did you get margin called chessnut?

No I never risk margin call an 2400 was respected on OKcoin, not on huobi.

Looks like we returned to 2400

Its terrible luck.... the count is strong on the higher order but I dont know what to think of this. its arguing with the hourly macd upwards.

You still optimistic about 3000 cny?

[chessnut]

You still optimistic about 3000 cny?

not sure about 3000cny but I dont see us going lower easily either.

[Carra23]

You still optimistic about 3000 cny?

not sure about 3000cny but I dont see us going lower easily either.

It looks as if there will be a resolution and a move soon. Which way I have no idea. You are tending to it breaking upwards?

[lunarboy]

weekend dip 

[chessnut]

You still optimistic about 3000 cny?

not sure about 3000cny but I dont see us going lower easily either.

It looks as if there will be a resolution and a move soon. Which way I have no idea. You are tending to it breaking upwards?

Yes I am still tending to it breaking upwards, but its not exactly behaving as I expect so seems very risky to me.

[Antioxidant]

After flat is always dump ... Well, in 8 cases out of 10

[chessnut]

It seems like this is the most valid case at the moment. We have formed an up trend on the hourly and hourly macd is still up. This could be wave (B) as I suggested yesterday, but I cant be sure how it fits the bigger picture. Targets for wave C are about 2600 or so. not bad risk reward.

this is quite a defining point here as illustrated. those who are trading on chinese exchanges here could use a very tight stop loss at this point if they chose to trade this breakout, around 2415. Im taking this long, stoploss uner 2115, target 2600.

[podyx]

Should I go long on 417 or wait it out a little bit?