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@ zezt
Yes, there would be tremendous riches for any small country to become a free-zone for money, cryptocurrency, secret banking, secure & private data storage, etc. A nice read is a novel by Neal Stephenson called Cryptonomicon, about a small island trying to become the world's secure (and offering secrecy) data haven.
But, I can think of at least two problems with such a free-zone being Greece:
1) As pointed out by others above, Greek governments are extremely meddlesome and corrupt. At this point, who would ever trust Greece to competently, honestly and secretly to look after YOUR funds? Ahh, not me!
2) Such a free-zone would encounter MASSIVE resistance from other countries. Most of the EU was mad at Ireland some years ago for having a low corporate income tax rate. RUSSIA would not likely be good partner for Greece in this, the Russians have lately cracked-down on some BTC websites there. Were Greece to try something like this, the EU and the USA would almost surely retaliate, and put the squeeze on them just as both the EU and USA did to the various "tax havens" now almost completely dead.
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... blockchain.info allows "alias" names for their wallets. Look for how to do it at "Account Settings" at the wallet home page, look for "alias". Pick a word that no one else already has. "gold", for example already has been taken (I checked), but "durdleman" probably has not, so you could use that. Then each time you go to your wallet, type in "durdleman" in the "Identifier" field. Easy-peasy!  |
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Crowdsourced funding would have to be in very large amounts to do anything to help the macro-situation there in Greece, if by "crowdsourcing" one means "donations". Even though Greece's economy is small by European standards, it will take billions of euros/US$ to stabilize the country. Generous donations on that scale are not going to happen.
Smaller-scale crowdsourcing could aid families, "sister cities" and the like I suppose. And that would be doing good for some small number of people with financial problems there.
* * *
I do not know Greece well enough to assess the probabilities that they might seriously use crypto-currency. My GUESS would be no, their .gov has traditionally been very interventionist and corrupt, that is a major reason why Syriza just won. Same guess re Greece changing its economy over to some high-tech friendly environment. WHO would believe the promises of a Greek government not to interfere nor heavily tax any such business?
Even were they to take up their own crypto (or even Bitcoin itself), for Greece to receive such funds from outside, they would have to, in essence, export something of value (or sell Aegean islands to Germans and/or Russians)... One of Greece's big problems now is that they do not produce much that the rest of the world would want to pay for.
Russia or China might pay for military basing rights...
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... Greece is back in the news re a economic huge storm. The new Syriza (leftist) government apparently will not knuckle under to the "Troika" (the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF) re Greece borrowing more in exchange for more austerity there in Greece. Syriza looks like they want to default or at least get BIG concessions from Germany. Greece has a debt:GDP of about 175% IIRC. There is a deadline, FWIW, of February 28 for Greece to agree. Greece has suffered horribly the past few years, it currently has an unemployment of some 25%, YOUTH unemployment of 50%. There seems to be a lot of blame to go around: -- greedy banksters (including Goldman-Sachs helping a prior Greek government to cook its books) -- general corruption in Greece -- unwillingness of Germany (and a few others) to absorb the debts of Greece -- the European Central Bank (led by ex-Goldman employee Mario Draghi) Etc. Why does Greece matter? Its economy is small. But a "Grexit" (Greek Exit) might be contagious. Spain has a new & increasingly popular leftist party ("Podemos" = "We Can") that wants to default too, they just had a huge rally in Madrid, apparently in support of Greece. Spain is TBTF, a failure there would destroy many banks in Europe.zerohedge.com has been closely following events in Greece and Europe. |
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I am happy with my Ledger Wallet Nano and my Trezor, I have been experimenting with them both over the past couple of weeks or so. I still use my blockchain.info wallet for their SharedCoin mixing service and for small transactions.
But, I only keep a small amount of BTC at blockchain.info.
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... Some three - four (?) months ago I tried out Two-Factor Authentication on two blockchain.info wallets I had, one was using SMS messaging the other was using Google Authenticator. I wanted to try them both and see which worked better for me. In my case, neither worked well. Most times I tried to authenticate, it would not "work". And that was a real problem, because I travel (live here in the USA), and wanted to have access to BTC, even in Peru where I often go. If I had trouble with Google Authenticator's code numbers expiring too fast here in the USA, I tried to imagine the problems I would have in Peru....... So, I opened up another wallet and just use the second password option (via Settings then Password from the Home Page), which at least is a partial solution for more security. |
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... Among the online wallets I have only used blockchain.info. I did have a total of two issues (temporarily lost BTC) with blockchain.info, but in both cases I got them back. blockchain.info's wallet offers an interesting feature that makes it harder for keystroke logging programs to steal your BTC: a second password option that uses an on-screen "virtual keyboard" (a little bit like Trezor's) before you can send out BTC. You access that feature via "Settings" at the Home Page of your wallet there. blockchain.info, of course, offers at least two Two Factor Authentication services, but I never could get them to work well. This might be especially true if you ever want to use that wallet in a developing country or with slow/bad Internet access... * * * But almost all of my BTC are now in cold storage on a Ledger and a Trezor. |
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... Here's a chart I did for curiosity back on Nov 27 of last year tracking the times between blocks (info from blockchain.info): https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxnHmH-02CQIZ2VqeFBzQVhIb1U/view?usp=sharingWhere minutes between blocks are the Y-Axis and the 112 or so consecutive blocks on the X-Axis. The mean and standard deviation of that data set (both in minutes): 9.92920354 7.700552872 (Sorry I could not figure out how to post the image right into here) EDIT: My understanding of the exponential distribution (probably the Poisson as well) is that the standard deviation should (approximately in reality) equal the mean, in this data set that is not true... Please correct me if I am wrong, smile,,, |
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... Poisson distribution, but approximates its continuous cousin the exponential distribution. For me it is easier to think in terms of the exponential. When I am waiting on a confirmation for a transaction just done, the rule of thumb I use is (very similar math to Foxpup's) is that a confirmation (let's just use a simple rule of a solved block = a confirmation, not always true) will come in a median of the 6.32 mins: 10 (minutes) - 10(1/e) = 10 - 10(0.3678) = ~ 6.32 minutes (median) even with the designed 10 minute average. Where " e" is that pesky number that shows up in the most unusual places (and is approximately 2.71828). What seems to happen to me a lot is that confirmations (time until next solved block) seem to take 20 - 25 minutes rather often...: P(> 20 mins) = 1/e^2 = some 13.5%, wow, I'm unlucky. So don't look for me in Vegas... |
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"Money" is typically defined as three things/ideas: Store of Value, Unit of Account and Medium of Exchange.
Gold is now mainly a Store of Value. People like me hold some gold because we have lots of confidence in that role of Store of Value.
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CoinCube!
That is a very interesting list that you compiled. And you have already recognized some of the limitations and surprises that one might expect (tax haven countries, tiny oil producers, etc.).
+ 1
Ahh, I have no idea how much time you have, but you could extend your List to perhaps include other factors (variables) that might make certain relationships clearer (I just had this thought right now, so can offer no useful advice at the moment).
Note that some of those countries are total dumps, and places like Qatar are unique (I once visited that country, yep, very different).
One possibility (just pops to mind, I have no idea how worthwhile this might be) would be to do fertility times TOTAL GNP.
Another thing to consider would be adding OTHER variables (maybe several or lots) and put them on a big spreadsheet. Once you have several different variables, it is possible that you might uncover previously unknown relationships (by statistical procedures like Multivariate Analysis and even yummy Factor Analysis or Cluster Analysis...).
* * *
I have played around with such statistical tools (using "S-Plus", an old command-line stats program I got along ago) with our company's bearings sales in Peru. Almost all of the little nuggets of info I got, however, I at least "sort-of" knew. Still it was worthwhile for me, as I am a major owner of our company down there. Yes, I did find that certain bearings have correlated sales that were somewhat unexpected, THAT KIND of thing is what I look for...
I do know that every Econ grad student (and their mothers) probably are doing this kind of thing, but you are working an interesting lode of information, maybe you will find something really notable!
Good luck, nice work.
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... crazyearner and thompete !!I tried that once at Starbucks, and got that priceless combination of befuddlement and "what planet are you from" look from the ignorant wanker... And, alas, the cashiers at our only local supermarket are no better. They take Apple Pay though. * * * Thank you to all of you above! Although no expert, I am learning as fast as I can about Bitcoinistan™, and I do have a dog in this hunt. Since my "cost basis" is still higher than BTC's current price, I guess I should buy some moar BTC.And tuck 'em away in my Trezor and Ledger! |
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I heard on TV this morning that Apple had a huge quarter, selling LOTS of iPhones. I also have been seeing retailers here-and-there accepting Apple's payment system. Unfortunately I know nothing about Apple's new system
Apple's payment system seems to catching on! What kind of risks does AAPL provide re Bitcoin's ecosystem?
Once one "new thing" catches on big, that first mover has a tremendous advantage. First player advantage.
Will BTC lose to Apple?
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I am not an engineer, so I can only comment on my experiences with Trezor and Ledger.
I like them both! On both I have done multiple transactions. Set-up was easy enough. I can recommend highly both of them.
The Ledger Wallet Nano is a bargain. Should there be no bad reports in the coming months, the low price means I might favor the Ledger over the Trezor. Both are cool though.
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... First a disclosure: I have not been through enough Bitcoin price cycles to document what I now write... * * * But, there are three things that I keep in mind re BTC: 1) Coinbase/Winklevoss/etc. are providing much-needed publicity, and hence legitimacy. 2) Once the (at least) four gold bullion merchants started accepting Bitcoin, that led (and leads) me to think other businesses will too. 3) BTC DOES need to get easier to use, perhaps Coinbase, BTC ATMs, etc. might also put BTC in the public eye. Ease of use. More acceptance. More visibility. Those three concepts are trending to higher price for Bitcoin. Maybe much higher. |
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... Dead links. Fix up your website, many of us would like to take a look. |
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... Both gold and BTC are up some 10% above recent lows. My guess is that financial events are becoming recognized as heralding trouble ahead. The dropping of the Swiss Franc / Euro peg has gotten a lot of attention, especially leading to even more comments about the Central Banks losing control. The case for buying and holding gold is pretty clear and pretty obvious so I will not discuss it further here. The case for Bitcoin, IMO, would be stronger were the Bitcoin Ecosystem stronger (less hack-prone) and if there were to be more acceptance of BTC among retailers and enthusiasts (like me). I still have NO family participating and very few friends who have any exposure at all to BTC. And what I learned I had to go out and learn myself (but I did get a lot of help from people who know a lot more than I). And I have been motivated out of personal curiosity, something I am seeing precious little of even seemingly "natural" websites (alternative financial ones like zerohedge.com for example). * * * I do understand that revolutions, even historically fast ones (Internet), take longer than one would think while actually in the midst of one. But, BTC does seem to be stuck and out-of-favor. The only real buzz I read much about is typically negative... FUD and the overly technical nature of BTC seem to be not only slowing acceptance down, but we may be seeing a failure in execution of what appears to be a great idea. Which would be too damn bad. Thoughts? |
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...  Wait until BTC is back to $450 - $500 or so, then I will buy gold again. BTC seems priced very low here. As income permits...: 1) When Au:BTC is under 3.0 or so, I buy gold 2) When Au:BTC is over 4.5 or so, I buy BTC Currently the ratio is about 5.86 BTC / troy ounce of gold. Lately I have been buying BTC... ounce.me |
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