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Armstrong's cyclicality is complicated for a Junior Armstrong Student like me, I will have to look at it some more. "Waves upon waves" (through time) seems to cover it. The math (of sine waves for example) can get out of hand very quickly though.
Did he call the race in advance?
Also, where does his 8.6 year cycle come from?
(Alternatively, if he has an "FAQs" or similar re his basic ideas, please let me know)
BTW, I remember watching the Belmont in 1973 when Secretariat ran away from all of 'em. Was WAY AHEAD of the pack. What a horse. Practically the whole country was watching.
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... When I was younger (20s, now in my 50s), I had a job that featured extremely irregular hours (oilfield work). For some of the rigs I helped service, I had to go twice per day. For about 2 - 3 months I was on a sleep twice per day schedule (say 3 - 4 hours per rest), and those two sleep periods came at differing times as well. I did just fine once I got used to it. And as vokain sort-of points out above, there ARE cultures where sleeping in the afternoon is normal, a siesta when it is HOT and you have no A/C just makes sense... * * * cypherdoc I went to look at MY posting times at profile. There are several hours where I do NOT post. Does that make meus normal?  |
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Almost 6:00 PM (US ET), and I find blockchain.info running apparently normally (including my wallet there).
Yes, yes, yes re not keeping too much BTC in your blockchain.info wallet. I keep most of my BTC in cold storage on a Trezor and a Ledger.
blockchain.info has had various kinds of problems before, including spending all the BTC I had in one of my addresses there (it got resolved OK, after some back-and-forth I got my BTC back).
I am not a programmer, but my guess would be that their complex site might mean that when they change something, their system crashes.
I have NEVER EVER seen that before...
/s
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... Martin Armstrong is a financial, well, forecaster might be the right term, who has written extensively on historical patterns of economics. He has a checkered past (I know that he went to jail for contempt of court, but what I have read it seems that was an injustice), but there is no doubt that he has introduced new concepts for us to read and analyze. While in jail, he produced a number of interesting papers looking at asset prices through history, including from ANCIENT history. He is one of the few who looks at cyclicality (time patterns) as well as a MACRO view of the markets (that is, he does not look at the price of gold alone, he looks at everything else too -- with a supercomputer). He is now out of jail and has set-up shop as a macro-consulting company. On most days (including today, Saturday) he publishes a few easy-to-digest items looking at various issues of the day. His blog: http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blogWhat finally moved me today to start this thread is his post was his very interesting piece (from today) "Money -- Credit -- Debt & Derivatives". It looks like derivatives are as old as money itself (maybe older!), take a look at the article: http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31401* * * I have been in various threads here at the forum where Armstrong's material has come up. I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial). |
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My guess (FWIW, very little) is that the US$ will do just fine for the short to medium term. Up vs. the Euro and the Yen.
My next guess is that something big & bad will happen in Europe, quite possibly a Grexit, that not only pushes the Euro down but will likely create another financial crisis, at least as bad as 2007 - 2009.
If this causes France to fall hard, then Germany will soon thereafter. Then the tsunami arrives to US shores, maybe as quickly as 48 hours. We have comparable levels of debt, and our banks are closely tied to Europe's banks.
That is when everyone will appreciate having at least some gold and/or silver.
Watch the financial markets and news closely.
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deisik & bryant.coleman
Paper gold may have some worth now, but eventually it will not. At that point, gold is likely to jump in price by at least an order of magnitude.
"All paper will burn."
-- ANOTHER
* * *
Physical gold in your own possession is the key to the Store of Value marvel of gold. When will this happen (paper gold to zero, physical to the moon)? Beats me, but it feels like it will not be long.
I was thinking it might happen in 2009, but that's just me...
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... I just edited my mistake. NOT rob of you of them. Sorry! Of course if no one knows you have them, they will likely NOT steal them! You were a little too fast there, knightdk... |
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... Keeping quiet about ownership of Bitcoins will almost guarantee that your neighbors or others will not rob you of them, as they would never know. And, of course, you could always have a small amount of BTC in a "disposable" decoy Ledger or Trezor, you give that up with your 1.15 BTC, but the larger amount you have hidden elsewhere. I do not use multi-signature, it does not look necessary. You might want write up a "Dead Man's Switch" (a letter explaining to your heirs how to claim any hidden BTC and gold), in case you get run over by a truck... * * * The title of your thread, cafucafucafu, practically begs changing the below old expression to a new one: "Be your own Central Bank, buy gold!" to: "Be your own Central Bank, buy gold and Bitcoin!" |
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Gold has a number of characteristics that would be of interest to many savers / investors.
1) Perhaps No. 1 in importance would be that gold is insurance against .gov becoming tyrannical or incompetent.
2) Gold is recognized and wanted all over the world. "There is always someone around who will buy your gold."
3) Gold is likely to go way up in price in case Europe has big problems (think Grexit, etc.). After Europe, problems would come to America.
4) Gold has been valued as the best Store of Value for 5000 - 6000 years, it is relatively easy to detect "fake gold" as well.
5) Gold moves somewhat independently of other investments, thus good diversificatin.
6) Gold is easy to hide.......
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aso118
The government will not do a clean-up job re Goldman Sachs, AIG, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, etc. Because these huge financial institutions have LOTS of power, $$$, and influence in the political system.
Actually, username18333 put it rather nicely showing the definition just above of plutocracy: rule by the rich. To a degree this has almost always been true, someone after all always winds up on top, those on the bottom get screwed. Even in the purported Socialist and Communist countries, the powerful always got the goodies from the rest.
Public opinion only matters in extreme cases. We are not there yet.
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... Yoshi76 I have used both bitmixer.io and SharedCoin (from blockchain.info -- I believe you must have one of their wallets to use their service) many times). Both services work well. "They say" that the algorithm behind bitmixer.io does a better job of mixing the coins (making the links between your sending and receiving wallets harder to detect). Carefully follow bitmixer.io's instructions!! |
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troller
Our Danish friends said that there were fairly few Muslims there (vs. a lot more in Sweden) as well as not much "social unrest". They are not happy about it, but these two did not seemed worked-up about it.
They told us they did not mind the taxes (much?), one of their kids had a MAJOR medical issue come up, it was taken care of for "free".
Yes, I agree, troller, for every beneficiary in Socialism there is a PAYER. No doubt. I had always thought that the Danes had been, well, like a ship full of Vikings, all thinking alike, small country, same culture, etc. So if they wanted their Socialism, they could have it, I did not see a problem for THEM. And when we visited Denmark some 12 years ago, EVERYONE we talked to was scared of Wal-Mart, LOL...
Your comment (and the attack on their cars in Denmark) shows that I have been a wee-bit wrong. And, like you say, this Fall beckons...
* * *
troller and TPTB
The three of us seem to dominating this thread now, and I have become more interested in Martin Armstrong's ideas (having lightly followed him ever since he released his "prison papers" which were on the whole very good).
I wonder if we should start a "Martin Armstrong Thread"...? That one thread to discuss his ideas (interesting, good sense of history) as well as his possible solutions (which TPTB has showed are, um, not optimal).
If so, let us know here, or start it up! I do not have a feel for how popular or worthy an Armstrong discussion would be here at bitcointalk.
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... Wind turbines? Driving my car to work? Can I get some mining in while out for my run? Extra hashes for push-ups? Mount a BitFury chip to my knife & fork at dinner? Our fridge uses electricity, there's even a light bulb in there (two if you count the freezer). Or to my TV while watching CNBS...? LOLOL...  |
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galdur
You likely know that the S&P 500 blasted through its "Double Top" over the past four years.
finviz apparently does not go far enough back to show that double top (at least as visibly as I have seen other longer-term S&P 500 charts), but the weekly chart DOES show the S&P 500 doubling over the past four years. Checking their monthly chart shows a muted "second top".
I hold stocks (and am concerned...), but am well diversified into hard assets, etc. Stocks (as well as most US real estate) have typically done well over a longer time frame.
"A perfect storm". Nicely put. It is coming.
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Many types of investments are over-valued now.
US stocks certainly seem to be, nearly at their all-time highs. Profits are fairly good, but some of that profit is going into M&A as well as share buybacks. Dividends are low. Classic warning signs...
Housing has had a big run in some US cities, I cannot comment on the USA as a whole, because I just do not know. Farm land in general has had a mighty run as well.
I DO KNOW that both Bitcoin and gold are WAY off their highs.
Generally speaking, you want to buy low and sell high...
Both real estate and stocks have through modern history done very well. In the long term. "Everyone" says they are in it for the "long term". But are they really? Or will they sell when something looks scary?
IMO, small investments in BTC and gold are great diversification.
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... Armstrong has another interesting article at his blog, this one is about someone burning 10 cars of Denmark's taxation authorities: http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31307Denmark? One of the calmest places in the world. We have two friends in Denmark, they are OK with very high taxes. Maybe the whole idea of "Economic Totalitarianism" is spreading... Ahh, no, I did not discuss Bitcoin nor gold during their recent visit here. My wife does not like that kind of talk around civilized people... |
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... Here's a quote today from Martin Armstrong's blog re gold and Europe: "My personal observation in Spain was that retail bullion coins were no longer sold in the banks or stores, which contrasted with what I observed in Italy. We also see problems in selling gold in France. Governments are targeting gold as a means to get money out of the banks, and they are doing their best to make it quasi-illegal by intimidation. Gold can be the underground means of conducting transactions if governments move to eliminate currency by moving electronic. That is when they could make it illegal to conduct such transactions as grounds for confiscation."http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blogGold and Bitcoin are GREAT short-term ways to protect some wealth in a crashing Europe.Yes, BTC price is very volatile. Yes, gold (in quantity) is hard to quietly take out by airplane. But, for taking assets out of Greece (or Spain), I would certainly look into BTC or gold... Fuckin' totalitarians... (is profanity prohibited here?) |
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Well, here are my thoughts on two issues raised in this thread -- nicely done, BobK71.
1) Very true that NO ONE of significance has been thrown in jail during and since the Financial Crisis (2007 - now). That is very telling and very troubling. There are indeed people TBTJ (Too Big To Jail). The 0.01% (the latest buzz-number re the very rich and very powerful) has gotten quite rich, while everyone else has had stagnating (or worse) incomes in recent years.
2) It may be that a number smaller than the 0.01% I mentioned above "control" the financial system. But, these guys are NOT united. They are broken into factions, IMO. Yes, they have an interest in keeping "getting wealthy" more difficult by outsiders, but they have a lot of infighting and such differing views (political, economic) as well as different levels of energy and knowledge that thinking of them as monolithic is a mistake.
* * *
-- The 0.01% (roughly) control huge amounts of wealth
-- The next 10% or so control most of the rest, some of them depend on serving the 0.01%
-- The bottom 80% or so have great challenges in getting wealthy. Yet I believe that it can be done by most (Americans anyway). By doing it the old-fashioned way:
a) Stay in school, get that degree (or certification in a trade)
b) Do not have children before you get married
c) Do not quit ANY job until you have a better one all lined up.
a, b and c are enough (can be hard and take a long time though) to allow any American to attain "The American Dream" (a reasonable middle class lifestyle) barring aberrant behavior and/or bad luck. Again, to do all of that requires sacrifice and hard work over a long period. Sacrifice and hard work for long periods are not trendy now...
EDIT: d) Stay out of debt too (or keep it low)!
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Buying land may be good. Just make sure that you have plenty of money (cash) to pay property tax in the coming years. Property tax is one of the easiest taxes to levy, maintain and raise.
Don't have too much invested in land unless you are very rich.
If your land is productive land (or with good tree cover), that is even better. Check mineral rights and title search...
AlgoSwan proposes an interesting idea to see which assets are overpriced vs. others. + 1
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