As above said, bitmixer.io is my only known mixer. If you want even more anonymity, try to search on deepnet. (CAUTION: Risk at your own, when you try at deepnet) ~Rude Boy  Deepnet mixing seems very risky to me as well (also you have to know how to enter the "World of TOR", which I do not). A much lower risk way to mix your coins (beyond bitmixer.io) is to use SharedCoin (blockchain.info's mixing service). I try to pay attention to BTC mixing threads and comments here, both SharedCoin and bitmixer.io work well for me. Follow instructions! <===For extra (apparently) security, you could mix twice (in sequence SharedCoin then bitmixer.io for example), that would probably be very hard to crack. Probably .gov is about it... |
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If the conditions persists to be stagnant , i will move to Venezuela or Zimbabwe or Argentina.
I had embraced BTC over 2 years back and i have some sufficient amount.
Please keep updating this thread as it invokes light in me.
Um, you sure? I think it would be a better idea to calculate pros and cons on a macro level and identify what could go wrong and if it is really sensible. Investing in real estate is smart, only if you are fully satisfied with all aspects which makes it affordable. I have to agree with HarHarHar... Venezuela used to be "almost a nice place" (it had always had more crime and poverty than most outsiders knew). Argentina has its problems too (though it is slightly better than, say, 2 years ago). It seems that the places where BTC is having success are places with serious problems. Find a way to travel to Venezuela, bring enough BTC to pay for your trip, but you should consider LIVING ELSEWHERE. |
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... While we are in danger of wandering deep into the weeds again (and hence I am happy this is over here at "Devastation"), I have comments below on a couple of notions that username18333 raises. (In light of the posts above, a psychology review seems in order.) g factor
When thought of as one factor, intelligence is often referred to as general mental ability (GMA) or general factor ( g factor or g for short). The tradition of studying intelligence as a single concept follows in the footsteps of Charles Spearman. While examining student test scores in the early 1900s, he noticed that individual students performed very similarly on different cognitive ability tests. These observations made him theorize that intelligence is a single underlying factor for all abilities. Spearman is the one given credit for coining the term g and g factor. g vs. IQ
 More commonly, g is referred to as IQ (intelligence quotient), but that term actually refers to a score on an intelligence test, so the term g is actually a more accurate description when discussing intelligence in general. In your readings, you will notice that the terms are used interchangeably, similar to the way they would be in actual conversation. See the figure for a comparison of g and IQ.g and Leadership
 This single-factor intelligence has been found to be the best predictor of general job performance, particularly for complex jobs (Schmidt & Hunter, 1998). However, the link between g and leadership is not as strong as one would think. The correlation is moderate (0.21-0.27; Judge, Colbert, & Ilies, 2004). That is not to say that the relationship is not useful, just that when one considers that the relation of g to general job performance is 0.51 (Schmidt & Hunter, 1998), it does not seem as impressive. In fact, intelligence actually ranks behind extraversion (0.31) and conscientiousness (0.28) for relationship to leadership ability (Judge, Bono, Ilies, & Gerhardt, 2002). See the figure. * * * If Spearman is who I think he is, he found that general intelligence ("g") is more accurately a set of somewhat different factors. I may very well be butchering the example (probably am, I don't have the proper info at hand), but he found that high school students had differing levels of three "factors" that explained a lot of g: -- English and language skills -- Computational ability -- Spatial thinking ability (geometry) I do not know the latest thinking on the subject of Factor Analysis and intelligence, but it *seems to be* pretty explanatory. A good reference "for the rest of us" non-mathematicians was written by Paul Kline, An Easy Guide to Factor Analysis, 1994, Routledge * * * I have also seen a completely different explanation of "Leadership", at least in the bureaucratic sense. Namely: a "leader" is typically someone with "charisma" (a fuzzy term, but I read this in a non-academic piece) and the ability to withstand extremely high (and long periods) of boredom. That sounds about right... Like all the bosses I had had... And yes, relatively low amounts of "g". (Take that J. O'Connell) |
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A Bitcoin SharedCoin transaction of $190,000, largest amount I have seen in this type of transaction:
8089f4af1a792adf80eeb0138b35f7bd4b99a57f80986aa718a6764333936903
(Above is the transaction number, copy & paste it into blockchain.info's Search box)
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IMO, China is much more risky, short-term, than the USA is, a least for investors.
The Tianjin explosion may have killed some 1400 people (rumors) as China is doing a full "Fukushima Mode" (lying and covering-up the scale of the disaster). Such blatant lies (more serious than even Hillary's server...) hint at a risky environment for outsiders...
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generalizethis and TPTB
Excellent observation and comments re designer drugs and knowledge.
* * *
Now might be the time for me to observe that I cannot find this kind of thinking at any other forum I belong to (Zero Hedge and PMBug). High caliber thinking about world financial topics on a Bitcoin website. Bitcoin must have a "High IQ" set of users and fan base...
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... TPTB Agreed re opportunity cost, also agreed that your project may provide an even higher rate of return. I was just hoping that you might take a bet that would yield me some passive income at a great rate-of-return...  * * * Armstrong, even with his supercomputer, his presumably bright team and all of his work cannot model things for which there IS NO DATA (some Black Swans do not equal other Black Swans, also note that Taleb defined a Black Swan as an UNKNOWABLE & UNPREDICTABLE event, among other things). "The butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing may affect grain trading in Chicago..." <=== You can't model that! * * * Your current project(s) look to be risky but extremely important. Few individuals can / have significantly changed the world (individuals not on teams). You might be the rare exception. Please do not take my arguments on diversification and probability (from my perspective) as any kind of attack on you or Armstrong. As in so much that I read, I want good evidence that I do not have to dig too deeply for, at least at the beginning. I like the "30 second Elevator Version" of new ideas. If it interests me, then I like the details. That kind of thinking has yielded fortunes for canny & hard-working Venture Capitalists (alas I am not one of those, on either count). |
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... TPTB If I send you BTC0.1, would then you pay me BTC100 if Armstrong gets something substantially wrong re the big picture? Terms and conditions of any such bet would have to be spelled out explicitly. But I'll take a 1000:1 odds on such a bet...   EDIT: Does Armstrong take into account Taleb's thinking, I have not read enough of M.A. to know. |
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Erdogan, deisik, TPTB
For at least the short term, the US$ is likely to keep going up. Investors worldwide are fleeing almost every other currency, especially and including the Yuan. China's and Europe's economies are weak. Neither shows any sign of clear thinking re reforms that would strengthen them. Not that the USA is really any better, it's just that we're stronger, for now.
The general view (perhaps better stated: the highest probability scenario from my perspective) that I have had for years now is that deflation is likely to happen first, then an inflation/hyperinflation.
* * *
Martin Armstrong is an interesting thinker who has made some very good calls. His study of cycles is very worthy, especially from an academic viewpoint. His mastery of economic cycles through history is unmatched as far as I have read.
[EDIT: Reinhart and Rogoff's book, This Time is Different, is nearly an encyclopedia of debt defaults mostly by sovereigns through the past 800 years is very worth reading, highly recommended]
While Armstrong has made some great observations to date, I (still) continue to contend that NO ONE can predict the future with any precision, there are too many unknown and confounding variables. Trends, yes. General timing of macro-events (demographics for example), perhaps. Black Swans, no.
Even TPTB's interesting call of a Knowledge Age (described best at the beginning of the "Economic Devastation" thread) may or may not happen as he predicts. That is a trend, maybe an unstoppable one, but I am not going to put all of my money on it... Some money, sure, as there are reasons why a Knowledge Age may indeed be the future.
But, I reiterate: No one can predict the future except in a limited way.
Since no one can predict the future, limited minds like mine continue to suggest diversification in investments and in time used (for learning for example).
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... TPTB Now that's just NASTY..., posting pictures like that on "my" thread! But, point taken. blockchain.info ought to not be so cozy with a .gov Chieftain. Might make blockchain.info wallet users wonder how safe their info and BTC is..... |
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coinableS
One modern response to hyperinflation has been to go out and buy cars, as they hold their value better than the currency.
If their government will print larger denominations, then the bulk of cash needed is reduced. The last hyperinflation I saw in Peru had a bank note of 5,000,000 intis worth some $3.00 at that time (late 1980s IIRC). As hyperinflation continued, they went back to the sol ("New Sol"), their currency has been stable since.
Ahh okay thanks. So like the Trillion dollar bill in Zimbabwe, Venezuela has larger denomination bills? I guess by the photo provided I thought they didn't have larger bills available. I don't know re Venezuela and larger bank note denominations. That is a political decision! Just printing up larger and larger denominations is a clear admission of failure. But, if they do NOT print larger "value" [sic / LOL] notes, then just living becomes much harder, the people might revolt sooner... As I mentioned (pages back), Venezuela is in real trouble. With huge oil reserves and 300 + tonnes of gold (an unusually large amount for a developing country), .gov Venezuela has screwed up very badly. And they were in talks with Goldman-Sachs to figure out how to lease their gold for a cash (dollars) transfusion, I do not know the latest on that news item. If Venezuela defaults on paying Goldman back..., then they can kiss their gold good-bye. |
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coinableS
One modern response to hyperinflation has been to go out and buy cars, as they hold their value better than the currency.
If their government will print larger denominations, then the bulk of cash needed is reduced. The last hyperinflation I saw in Peru had a bank note of 5,000,000 intis worth some $3.00 at that time (late 1980s IIRC). As hyperinflation continued, they went back to the sol ("New Sol"), their currency has been stable since.
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... Those of us who are not programmers or otherwise professionals re BTC can get a reasonably good overview of the debate re block size and related topics here (new piece by Mike Hearn): https://medium.com/@octskyward/why-is-bitcoin-forking-d647312d22c1I cannot confirm how valid the piece is, but non-tekkies ought to at least have an option of reading commentary like this which is in more-or-less plain English. |
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deisik
10-4, rgr that.
Governments cause monetary collapse, yes.
And, also yes, gold has saved many savers through the centuries. And gold will likely save many more (ah, ask Venezuelans, ah, IF any of them hold much gold...).
Diversification is almost always very smart. Bitcoin counts as a "diversification" too.
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... GREECE (more accurately: Greek entrepreneurs) may be pointing the way to show how people can cope with an unstable and/or dictatorial monetary system with capital controls: http://techcrunch.com/2015/08/14/bitcoin-provider-cubits-aims-to-help-greeks-move-their-money/?ncid=rssThe most interesting thing about the article (for me) is how they may use BTC to pay for imports from external suppliers. Venezuela has an additional complication though: tighter controls on imports and exports. Still, Venezuelans (there and in Miami) could probably set something similar up rather easily... |
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It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week.
Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports. Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy... It also works the other way round That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used). Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar... But it is still alive and kicking! Yes, the US$ is indeed still alive. My guess would be that a short-term deflation is close to or now at hand. If so, the US$ is a safe place for your money. "Subject to a sudden change." And the dollar will (likely) eventually collapse... Why? ALL other fiats have collapsed in the past. Mostly due to the same causes: government overspending and money printing. |
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... GermanGiant Great question, but I doubt that anyone could really answer that. But, one thing to be looking for is whether or not SharedCoin use (say as a percentage of BTC transacted) goes up. It looks like it would be close to impossible to assess how much bitmixer.io is being used. I have no idea. |
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... I was looking at this block ("Total Sent: $14,000,000") and I noticed a lot of transactions that look like SharedCoin (BTC mixing) transactions all clustered in the lower half of this block: https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000000db8c1d19346c299ef07e919f7fa515e86e19c8f9892b750Some of these total transactions total over $100,000 which is rare (at least as far I have seen). EDIT: Hey, I see a block of $14,000,000 plus, without a huge number of little transactions, I check it out... |
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