... I would really like to see Peru get into Bitcoin, apparently Argentina is already pretty into it. Maybe a "hawala" type of service. Pay some BTC "here", and have your people "there" take local currency. I am guessing that would be a terrific service! Might run afoul of money-laundering laws though...  |
|
|
|
|
...
Erdogan, picolo,
As long as you don't take your gold with you when going sailing... It's one of the oldest stories in the book: gold lost in boating accidents. Happens all the time. Please keep this in mind when you think about taking your gold from that dark place where you have it hidden at home.
One of my friends lost all of his when he took his gold & silver icefishing with him. ALL DAY LONG he was having no luck. But, *wham!* he got a strike and fought that fish. Unfortunately, his PMs fell through the hole just as he reeled in his fish. He got walleye, so at least the day was not a total loss.
Another one of my friends not only lost his gold & silver in the woods, but his guns and ammo too! Yikes, it's a dangerous world out there, can't be too careful.
|
|
|
|
|
...
Possum577
China is a big place with a lot of moving parts. It is not monolithic. So, no, I am not really alarmed, the point of my OP was just to show where the mining action is now.
I was a little concerned when GHash.IO hit that 51% number a year or so ago, but you need would AT LEAST three of the four Chinese mining pools acting in concert to "51%" the BTC system, which strikes me as unlikely. One reason (and it's not worth much, granted) is that there are so many bearing producers & exporters in China that are cutting each others' throats... Same with vehicles (there are some 90 vehicle manufacturers there, many of them in Peru (over 20 that I myself have seen when there). My prediction is that blood will run among the Chinese truck makers...
Nonetheless, I would be perfectly happy to see some Westerners belly-up and start serious BTC mining. I have read about BTC mines in Sweden and (especially) Iceland that take advantage of low electricity rates and cold air for cooling. Or Alaska!
|
|
|
|
|
...
Tornadoes were discussed above. They seem to be a minor set of destructive natural events in the aggregate. IMO, more work could be directed to more destructive events, hopefully with better results.
I believe that "violent storms" (did he DEFINE those?) ought to be subdivided into hurricanes (very costly) vs. tornadoes (an order of magnitude less costly) vs. general thunder storms (many, many of those, which add up to serious $-damage).
* * *
Clearly I need to read more and study Armstrong. He IS a top-notch observer. I doubt that I will be able to convincingly refute him (as it looks like he ADDS VALUE with his predictions and work in general), and that his predictions would add more value than mine (my record is poor).
I am inclined (just inclined, as I have not put in the hours yet) to take your word that his longer-date predictions are more on the money (than noisy short-term ones), as have George Friedman's, as I once mentioned to you recently here (briefly in a post, not by link).
We appear to have a disagreement on the liklihood of being able to foresee Black Swan events. Too many, too weird and too unlikely (each one) to be accurately modeled, in most cases, IMO.
* * *
Finally, I disagree that a smart brain, or sets of brains and computers, can get much (some, but not too much) from environments that are much, much more complex than our brains (even yours or his) to keep track of all outcomes... Trends and insights yes. Brilliant "aha" moments, yes as well. EVERYTHING, including low probability but high impact events, no.
* * *
It might be fun for you (iamback) to put on the line some of M.A.'s latest (current) predictions (or even YOUR predictions if you disagree with him). Will Hillary win (even with her latest email and foreign donation scandals)? Where will the S&P 500 be (at any specific date this year, or next year)? WHAT (yuck) will happen in Ukraine? Even predicting when (and how) Greece may/may not "GREXIT" this year.
Lay some of you favorite M.A. predictions (or yours!) on this thread! We will see how they turn out.
(Disclosure: I claim little/none predictive power, especially timing, so I will decline to predict..., having LOST money in predicting financial events before).
|
|
|
|
|
...
There are currently FOUR major groups mining BTC in China. At least for the moment, it is hard to see Bitmain/AntMiner (say) cooperate with the other three. The other are competitors, each of whom have Alpha-Men (Alpha-Women too perhaps) leading them, likely lessening a cooperation between them to misuse any mining concentration between them.
And should the .gov of the PRC decide these guys are a problem, well, they will be suppressed.
Should the .gov see them as a further tool for increasing their world power in general, I think we would have time to notice that. And act..., buying gold or other products and liquidating our BTC hoards.
* * *
Now if Intel or Toshiba or Samsung would start making ASIC chips (and machines), well, maybe setting up more shops in Iceland, Washington State, etc. might yield big, non-Chinese BTC mines.
|
|
|
|
|
...
Tornadoes and the seasons of their severity, at least me to me, seem to be one of those wildly complicated systems (full of chaotic and unpredictable factors) that cannot be well predicted except on days with their characteristic weather patterns. Besides, tornadoes cause relatively little damage in the aggregate.
Hurricanes cause more damage. And seasonality of hurricanes can be somewhat predicted by following the "El Niño" patterns of the warm waters of the Pacific. A new El Niño seems to be starting up even now. Soon I will ask my Peruvian in-laws if their country is being affected by the typical flooding seen in the deserts of N. Peru during an El Niño. Here in the USA, there tend to be fewer hurricanes hitting the US East and Gulf Coasts during an El Niño season. Costly ANDREW, apparently, was an exception.
Earthquakes? Much money is being poured into (sometimes VERY costly events), yet their prediction record is not good. A little better close to a big quake, but still not very good.
* * *
When I occasionally consider predicting various outcomes of human (revolutions, wars, fashions) and financial outcomes (wildly complex and confounding & interactive (reflexivity)), I am at a complete loss to make accurate assessments in most cases. In some cases (very high P/E rations in stocks, other ratios that get extreme, etc.), I can make educated guesses, which are really not worth much.
History can provide some insight, but very fallible (eg, short-term runs in gold price).
Re Black Swans, I go back to N. N. Taleb: Black Swans are (typically) not predictable nor even really foreseeable! 9-11 was not forseeable (except in a general sense of some kind of a Muslim extremist attack). YES, iamback notes these are long-tail events, but there are so many possible long-tail events that I think these are NOT foreseeable in the aggregate. Which of the thousands of low-probability events WILL occur? Hmm......
I do not have the mathematical background (not TOO far away, but not close enough) to assess how much a certain series of financial events that Armstrong's computers could look at and predict, but my strong guess is that while it may very well be much better than my own, well, I don't think a high reliability is there. If we look at an admittedly bad analogy, his 30,000 factors (and whatever links and correlations he finds between and among them), there are a LOT more than 30,000 possible factors, with unknown connections, that make his predictions very uncertain. Worth reading, but not worth hold one's breathe on...
A good sense of probability of predicted events looks worth keeping in mind, especially at the RISKS (severities of outcomes) of certain outcomes.
No brain can model the Universe. Or even the Earth. Good insights are worthwhile, but caution would suggest looking at a VARIETY of probable outcomes, and preparing for ones where possible.
|
|
|
|
|
...
Doug Casey gets a lot of things wrong, not understood by many in the Bear Camp (I am a proud member). Casey is capo of a community near Cafayete, Argentina for Libertarians. I do not know how that is working out, but I would not go there. Argentina? Hey, if I had family there, well OK.
Nonetheless, people concerned about a Great Depression v. 2 would do well to read up on what Casey and others would say:
-- stay out of debt
-- stay in shape, eat healthy
-- buy & hold gold and other hard assets
-- be prepared to the extent that you want or feel is necessary
-- educate yourself (gain skills)
There are many other suggestions, too many! The whole "Preparation" subject is quite complex. Do you prepare for the End of the World (Mad Max)? Takes time & money. Not to mention, married/family guys might have trouble with that...
|
|
|
|
|
...
iamback and CoinCube
Armstrong could be among the very best of guys who predict, but even with 30,000 + variables in his supercomputers, that will not cover all facors "out there", nor (especially) some of the connections and influences among them.
Weather is a great example. Much more complex than the actual average TV viewer could imagine.
OTOH, if I were any of you, if I had to bet, I would bet with Armstrong vs. a Bearing Buyer.
I got out of the prediction game long ago, except for noticing important trends, like "Economic Devastation". Devastation, likely to hit a country near yours soon. When? Ahh..., beats me! But, the end feels near, it certainly gets nearer each new day.
|
|
|
|
... I wrote this piece up to "show my work" (so I can refer back to it, smile) re how to put a hashed .pdf document on the blockchain, a subject I am interested in. "Experiment: Saving a .pdf with proofofexistence.com" http://goo.gl/va382zSaving (hashed values of) documents on the blockchain has become a hot topic in Bitcoinistan™ lately, I am trying in my own way to learn more. Someone, IMO, will make some serious money with this... |
|
|
|
... bitcoinblender.net has an interesting explanation of the whole mixing process. I have not used them (nor the .onion) so I have no other comment on bitcoinblender itself. For extra security, yes, I agree that running BTC through TWO mixers gives an even better level of security. I sometimes do just that: using SharedCoin (via blockchain.info) as well as bitmixer.io. I have run them through bitmixer first (then sharedcoin) as well as the reverse, I do not know which would be better (guess: do bitmixer last). I have never had a real problem with bitmixer, there once was an issue, but we worked it out. With any mixer: Follow Instructions!* * * I would very much like to read other reviews of bitcoinblender, as well as anyone who really knows whether or not it is important to hide your trail better by using .onion and TOR. I have read that TOR may already be compromised... |
|
|
|
... This is the first time I have seen blockchain.info showing separate stats for BW.COM at their mining stats page. https://blockchain.info/poolsThe top four miners (percentage of recent block wins / hashing power): AntPool: 20% F2Pool: 16% BW.COM: 11% BTCChina Pool: 7% Total China: 54%(Sort of reminds when GHash.IO briefly took 51% of mining) |
|
|
|
... kingcolex, Alexis, countryfree, lolled and ebliever I'm with you guys. Just pay the 3 cents...  To keep the miners in business and the BTC network maintained, three cents is almost nothing, a bargain. |
|
|
|
|
...
I have read and talked with people who say how popular BTC is in Argentina. They have an active tech community there, and a long history of irresponsible governments. Even now Argentina restricts purchases of US dollars.
Now when will BTC start getting popular in Peru? But, Peru has more economic freedom than Argentina, so there is not much pressure to look for alternative methods of protecting Peruvian savings -- the dollar markets are completely free there.
|
|
|
|
|
...
iamback
Author George Friedman (CEO of StratFor, so a NeoCon, but I have no problem with him) wrote two books in the past few years. One predicting the next 100 years, and later a book predicting the next 10 years. He too said that the macro-trends for the next 100 years were more predictable as far as he was concerned than the next 10 years (because of Black Swans and other one-off events). I don't have the titles handy, but if you are interested, they are for sale, for sure, via Amazon. (My wife makes me get rid of books when I finish them...)
I too will be watching this September (2015.75), red alert! Historically, September is the worst month on the average for stocks. October is when we see the big drops...
I would agree w/ Armstrong re coins vs. bullion. Gold 1 oz Eagles are easy to test ("ring" test, OD and weight), and are relatively familiar (here). For residents of other countries, go with the local coins. Easy recognition is a BIG PLUS. Gold diversification would suggest HODLing some 0.25 oz and 0.10 oz Eagles for smaller transactions.
|
|
|
|
|
...
Beliathon
Greece may be just getting warmed up. Historically, countries can fall a long way down until they hit bottom. The violence may come later.
I would characterize Greece's plight NOT as a failure of Capitalism because it was never tried in Greece. Greece has had a corrupt oligarchy running the place... If I had had Greek in-laws, there would have been NO WAY we could have built a business, from scratch, to the success we have had in PERU.
* * *
+ 1 for your observation that a monster global iceberg may be lurking...
The rest of Europe is not looking good either (ex-Germany). The USA has its own problems that are likely to get worse (IMO).
Japan is very weak. Even China has big problems not often recognized by casual observers.
|
|
|
|
... iamback wrote: "P.S. The reason I don't bother to be polite is because you socialist pigs are an incorrigible lot." LOL... You must have been quoting Maggie Thatcher. * * * I would consider the 0.01% - 0.0001% to all be the Evil Capitalists much excoriated by our Socialist pals. 0.01% is 1 in 10,000 people. While I have little experience with large numbers of the very rich, it is not JUST the owners of the media (etc.) who carry blame for using SOCIALISM to prop-up their wealth gathering. The 0.0001% (one in a million) need a class just below them. Which they would pay pretty well. Their Squires if you will. Middle management counts... Tenured professors... Lobbyists... Low level banksters... EDIT: Anyone touting "global warming" should be automatically inducted into the Socialist Class. |
|
|
|
... Bizmark13 I have not been around long enough (nor studied the whole Signature Ad issue enough) to really say other than offer up one comment: "Longevity of a Signature Campaign might indicate success to the advertiser." Re bitmixer.io, I had used their mixing service many times before I figured out how to get into their campaign. That may make my case different than many others: I USE the service whose ad I carry. Perhaps some of the other members here at bitcointalk who carry ads for bitmixer have used the service...? I have not used exchanges nor casinos (inc. dice games) so I can offer no worthwhile comment. So, it may be that long-standing advertisers see it as a good investment. Maybe in a year, if you/we see most of the same advertisers, well that would be a good clue... |
|
|
|
|
...
NICE GRAPH afbitcoins!
(Note: I do not "do" TA (technical analysis) so can offer no opinion on what predictive power ANY chart has re the future.)
If I had to guess, I would expect to see "fairly good" correlation between price of BTC and price of gold (both in dollars) as time marches on. If you have the price data of both in MS Excel, then you could run the correlation coefficient routine (price in $ of both), I would think that you would get a 0.75 - 0.85 or so, "pretty good" by social sciences standards.
I will go take a look at your blog. Looks interesting!
* * *
I mention this in other threads, but it also seems to be worth noting here as well. BOTH gold and BTC are assets, and further, are assets that most people do not own.
They also have different "fundamentals" (price dynamics) from each other.
Sooo, that means buy and hodl both (as your financial and perhaps other circumstances permit). EVERYONE who can should own at least a small amount of gold. Anyone HERE at bitcointalk should likewise own at least a little BTC. How much of each? Ahh...
If anyone travels, especially if their home country and travel destinations have outlets that accept BTC, you can carry A LOT of wealth in that little Ledger Nano... Never know, having a few hundred (or thousands) of dollars worth of BTC might come in handy. And our amigos at TSA can't take it away, the Ledger Nano probably would not even show up on the machines...
|
|
|
|
|
...
CoinCube (and friends)
CC, your graph of .gov expenditures to GDP is excellent, it almost is a nice (but imperfect) definition of Socialism right there!
Arguing over semantics of Socialism may not be productive. Most of us know it when we see it. The USA (see CC's graph last post) is heading quickly to Socialism by almost ANY definition. I don't have the stats handy, but I would consider ANY national economy with close to 40% .gov expenditures to be pretty close... Some of the European countries, IIRC, are well over 50%. Yow!
* * *
CC, your distinction between INCOME and WEALTH is very cogent. Being in the 1% of income will allow you to rapidly build up real wealth. And since I do not know your situation, I could only suggest saving as much as you can. Hardly anyone who is young saves. Particularly if your income could be at real risk. A cop I know has started saving money for the first time in his LIFE. But, many municipalities are weak now, he could lose all the overtime he is making or even his job if something goes wrong (a bad arrest, etc.).
And even though I highly respect the intellectual power of iamback's arguments, I still would be diversified... NO ONE can predict the future.
|
|
|
|
... albert11 Just the fact that there would be a LARGE buyer looking to buy would get the attention of skilled traders. This concept is one that many stock traders know about, it is one of the ideas behind High Frequency Trading ("HFT"). Just the act of starting to LOOK to buy will attract the attention of skilled traders... * * * Big players who want to make money (and who would be satisfied to make it slowly) would likely do better just to buy gradually, and then "HODL". Once the price goes up enough (probable IMO), then sell them gradually. Or buy gold with the BTC. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
